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Good Old Baseball Question

This is a flat out baseball/stats question. And I'm getting the feeling that a lot of you, especially royhobbs, are going to like this question. Alright so as for the question: Why is batting about .330 considered -good- best hitter in the league? These guys are professionals! If you were to go to a surgeon and he told you that he had a success rate of 33% would you really go to that guy? No, you'd want the surgeon who has somewhere between 85 and 100 percent success rate. Also, If a pitcher has a win percentage of .330 then they would be a crap pitcher. For a pitcher, to be considered good based on win percentage they have to be at least 70%. So why for hitters is .330 considered the best in baseball, and why do we throw millions of dollars at the people who have a 33% success rate? Am I missing something?

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Because it’s really freaking hard to hit in baseball. Pitchers can throw it anywhere in a sizeable rectangle. Hitters have to put the bat in the right spot, at the right time, AND not hit it at a defender.

by bbxxj on Nov 4, 2009 10:49 PM EST via mobile reply actions   0 recs

It all has to do with the average

Not the batting average- the average performance of the entire league. In the beginning, and I mean way back into the 1800s, nobody really kept stats, and even when they started to keep stats and formed organized professional leagues, its not like they started with our concrete benchmarks of what is and isn’t good. You’d have to gather several years worth of stats before you could really determine which guys are pulling apart from the pack, which guys can’t keep up, and where all the guys in the middle fall. Even then, though, you’re only talking about one generation of players, so any benchmarks you try to set just from that can be vastly blown away or not lived up to by the next generation.

In modern terms you would use the kind of basic statistical analysis you learn in high school and apply it to baseball data. It’s easier these days for us to make this call because we’re dealing with 100+ years of data, and can see what did and didn’t drastically change as various parts of the game evolved (think the advents of astroturf and the DH, expansion and the inevitably thinner talent pool, extension to a 5 man rotation, etc.) When you look at all of the data you can see the “master batting average,” so to speak, that is the calculated batting average of every player rolled into one number, probably somewhere in the high .260s. You then work out one standard deviation in both directions (which I don’t know because I haven’t actually crunched all these numbers). So for argument’s sake let’s say our master average is .265 with a .030 point standard deviation. That means about .235 is the absolute lowest you’ll want to accept from anybody, and the guys hitting .295 are approaching elite status. About seventy percent of performers will fall within one standard deviation either way, leaving about fifteen percent at below our acceptable mark and another fifteen percent above it. The guys hitting under .235 in this instance we would want to supplant with guys hitting at least .235. In contrast, the echelon hitting over .295 is the hitting elite, the top of their class.

If you apply the same methods across categories it’s fairly easy to see why batting is skewed that way- it’s just a more difficult skill. Record is exceptionally easy to measure- either a guys is pitching around .500 or he’s above or below, the nature of the stat is self-explanatory and gives you the above/below average indicator without any effort. But when you realize a perfectly average hitter can only muster .265, suddenly hitting over .300, or more than one standard deviation away, is what you read as excellent. Then you realize that the 2-deviation mark is .325, so the guys competing for the batting title, which will only be about 2-2.5% of all performers, are the elite of the elite, and every team would die to have just one of these guys. Conversely, the guys hitting under .205 are the ones that you probably don’t even consider for backup catching duties unless you have absolutely no other choice, they are in an abysmal class all their own. It’s not so much a baseball question as it is a basic stats question, it all become clear when you know where the mean is.

BTW- I’m a political science student and that is about the sum total of my mathematics knowledge.

by J-Freak on Nov 4, 2009 10:57 PM EST reply actions   2 recs

Nice answer

As many of the statheads here will also tell you, batting average is also a very flawed stat concocted by some emigrant British cricket fan who happened to be a stat geek and an early fan of baseball

It’s wrong to judge a hitter purely by batting average, and it’s wrong to try and compare baseball to everyday circumstances and experiences.

by get swoll yunel on Nov 5, 2009 1:23 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Wasn’t arguing that it was flawless, or that it should be the only stat by which one judges a hitter. It is indeed a flawed stat, and it’s bad practice to judge any player on any one stat; whenever possible use all available info to get the most complete picture possible of a player.

But, the verbose answer above does explain why the success threshold in that stat is not a typical over/under 50% mark like most metrics, which was the answer to the original question.

by J-Freak on Nov 5, 2009 1:34 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I wasn’t trying to be snarky with my reply… I really did dig the response you typed out.

You were making good points.

These damn interwebs misconstruing everything!

by get swoll yunel on Nov 5, 2009 1:41 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

How is it a flawed stat?...

It may be overemphasized, but I can’t really see if as flawed. You either get a hit or you don’t, and it does a pretty good job of showing the rate at which one either gets a hit or gets out.

by Mr. Sanchez on Nov 5, 2009 3:53 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

It’s in all of the stipulations for one thing- what does and doesn’t count as a full-fledged AB rather than just a PA, etc. Also because it is partially dependent on defense. You can rope a line drive over first and Adam Dunn could miss it, thus giving you a hit, but you can rope the exact same line drive by someone like Tex and he’ll snare it, landing you an out. batting average is more a measure of exactly what’s happened to you considering which exact parks you were in and which exact defenses you hit against than it is a measure of a player’s true skill with a bat. If that’s your definition of BA from the start, then it isn’t flawed and does what it’s supposed to do, though you need a lot more information than that to evaluate a player when you know that’s the kind of number you’re working with. But the general public has the perception that the BA is the end-all-be-all of a hitter’s ability to churn out a hit, which is inaccurate.

by J-Freak on Nov 5, 2009 4:39 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed...

both on the general public, and that a batting average is fine in someone who understands it’s just a piece of the puzzle, not the full thing.

by Mr. Sanchez on Nov 5, 2009 5:00 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

British cricket fan or no...

Henry Chadwick did as much for the evolution of the game as anyone.

"...Braves tie! ...Braves tie! ...Braves tie!"

by The Keith Lockhart Era on Nov 6, 2009 12:51 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

That was awesome.

"...Braves tie! ...Braves tie! ...Braves tie!"

by The Keith Lockhart Era on Nov 6, 2009 12:50 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I think you just broke my brain. But in a good way.

by TheLetter2 on Nov 7, 2009 7:17 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Why are apples and oranges different?

by Lennox on Nov 5, 2009 1:23 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

how does Positrack work?

"Matt Diaz is a baseball player."-Joe Simpson

by 10-4 on Nov 5, 2009 8:21 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

It just does.

by Sparhawk on Nov 5, 2009 10:14 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Because pitching beats hitting

That’s just the default. They always say, good pitching beats good hitting. Well, bad pitching also beats good hitting sometimes. Just reality.

http://www.capitolavenueclub.com/

by PWHjort on Nov 5, 2009 1:42 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Why am I singled out?

Compare the minds of TC posters to the Marvel Comics universe. I’m like Beast from the X-Men; snobby, and can kind of wing it here and there, but I don’t hold a candle to Reed Richards, Dr. Doom, Iron Man, Bruce Banner, or Giant Man.

My response to the question is the simple fact that numbers and percentages are different everywhere you go. Take all sports winning percentages for example.

In the NFL an 11-5 (.687) record doesn’t guarantee you a playoff spot, but if you were to have a .687 record in MLB, you’d likely be the #1 seed in baseball. A few years ago, the Atlanta Hawks made the NBA playoffs with an abysmal 37-45 (.451) record, and last year an undefeated Ball State barely got to sniff a bowl game.

I guess my final answer is that the more instances it occurs, the lower the success rate is still considered good. Since a reliable player will see upwards of 650 plate appearances a year, if they can claw out a .300+ batting average, they’re considered good. Inversely, when a pitcher who when healthy and reliable, can exceed 30+ starts an 200+ innings is far expected to perform superbly (.600+) in much less instances. This line of thinking also relates to how few football games there are, compared to how many more basketball games there are.

No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.

by royhobbs on Nov 5, 2009 10:35 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

now he's a philophosizer.

i think i would be iceman. i keep it lighthearted, and don’t contribute anything serious to the team.

"Matt Diaz is a baseball player."-Joe Simpson

by 10-4 on Nov 5, 2009 11:12 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Nice Dodgeball drop there. I like the way this convo is going to go already

I thought hurricane season was over........

by bravesguy311 on Nov 5, 2009 1:46 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I must know which Marvel Superhero I am, please tell me.

"At least he didn’t nail the bitchy fat girl from Hell's Kitchen."
www.dropoutproductions.com

by cbwilk on Nov 5, 2009 11:56 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

From my observations...

Professor X. Always counterbalancing the misguided arguments and trying to restore order without resorting to force.

But I could be wrong.

by J-Freak on Nov 5, 2009 12:27 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Let's assess cbtits

You’re tall, into beards, dislike robots and technology. Kind of clever, and I think you’re an artist at heart, because of all the side projects you do. Deep down though, you might be a megalomaniac borderlining on insanity.

That being said, Magneto, when he was shown occasionally with a beard.

No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.

by royhobbs on Nov 5, 2009 12:33 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I do like the idea of being able to rip the iron out of somebody’s blood and essentially being able to move the planet by controlling its magnetic fields…

I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it: https://www.createspace.com/3407939
www.dropoutproductions.com

by cbwilk on Nov 5, 2009 1:27 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

not to mention be about the only person that can hook up with Rogue.

"Matt Diaz is a baseball player."-Joe Simpson

by 10-4 on Nov 5, 2009 2:27 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Seriously? Must have been after I stopped reading. Sweet.

I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it: https://www.createspace.com/3407939
www.dropoutproductions.com

by cbwilk on Nov 5, 2009 3:33 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

its been several years ago, because i haven’t read since high school, but in the “Age of Apocolypse” alternate timeline, Magneto and Rogue had a kid. So 2+2=

"Matt Diaz is a baseball player."-Joe Simpson

by 10-4 on Nov 5, 2009 3:37 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Oh, that’s right. Damn, get it Mags!

I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it: https://www.createspace.com/3407939
www.dropoutproductions.com

by cbwilk on Nov 5, 2009 4:11 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

How dare you compare yourself to Kelsey Grammar (Grammer?). He was FRASIER!

by someguy917 on Nov 5, 2009 12:42 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

because i am a pompous ass too

No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.

by royhobbs on Nov 5, 2009 12:45 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

good to know im not the only one who is proud they are a pompous ass…

Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?

by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST

by Swo12bv on Nov 5, 2009 1:29 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

woo-hoo!

"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."

by justincredubil02 on Nov 5, 2009 3:03 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

That makes at least four of us

Bet we got another good dozen or so waiting in the wings.

"...Braves tie! ...Braves tie! ...Braves tie!"

by The Keith Lockhart Era on Nov 6, 2009 12:54 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

wish i had his voice...

among the few out there, just wish I sounded like him when i talked.

by Mr. Sanchez on Nov 5, 2009 3:57 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Can I be Niles?

by TheLetter2 on Nov 7, 2009 7:18 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

It really came from this:

I probably see the game in a different light than you do.

I figured this is the kind of question that interests you, although I could be completely wrong.

(Yunel is still the Queen of Hearts)

by GoBravesNY on Nov 5, 2009 8:22 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Is it really a stat's question

The bottom line is if you are gonna have surgery you’re gonna want the surgeon that has the best survival/recovery rate whatever it may be.

If you need a hit you are gonna want the best hitter out there regardless of what they are hitting. That guy is only gonna be hitting somewhere in the .300’s.

It just goes to show you that hittinig a 99 mph fastball when you don’t know it’s coming is harder than a successful triple bypass surgery…and some people wonder why they are making millions.

On a tangent if said surgeon had to perform say 600 surgery’s a year in front of say 30,000 of his patients most loyal friends and family screaming at the top of their lungs success rates would surely plummet!

by BravesfaninMontana on Nov 5, 2009 5:24 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Batting avg. to me, is really only an indicator of what KIND of hitter a player is. You have to view it in context, along with OBP and SLG to get a better idea of what a particular player’s BA means.

In general, BA alone is really only important if it’s exceptionally high, or exceptionally low. Otherwise, you NEED something else.

by FineHamAbounds on Nov 7, 2009 1:51 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

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