Braves 2009 Season in Review: Derek Lowe
by gondeee on Nov 3, 2009 1:50 PM EST
29 comments
Did Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Derek Lowe really have this bad of a year? Is he really this bad of a pitcher? After all he posted an ERA almost a run higher than his career average, and he led the league in hits allowed, and he didn't even get to that vaunted 200 innings pitched plateau that was part of the reason we signed him.
I started out thinking this writeup would just be several paragraphs of me trashing Lowe, but then I looked deeper and thought about his 2009 performance in a different way.
His ERA was a robust 4.67, but his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) was substantially lower at 4.06. This is not all that surprising for a ground ball pitcher, but it is a big gap. He also posted a batting average against of .301 -- the highest in his career, and part of why he led the league in hits allowed -- but that could have been helped by a high BABIP of .333. These are both similar numbers to what he put up during his last year in Boston, 2004. That year he had a .299 BAA and a .331 BABIP, which caused his ERA to jump up to an even uglier number (5.42) than last year.
We can only infer that these numbers are not the norm for Derek Lowe. His career numbers, even with these outliers factored in are that of a .262 BAA and a .295 BABIP, to go with a 3.84 ERA and a 3.79 FIP. These are much closer to what he did during the last four years in Los Angeles, and closer to the type of pitcher that we believe we actually got when we signed him to a 4-year contract at $15 mil a pop.
This reminds me of Tim Hudson's second year in Atlanta, where his numbers were just a little out of whack and no one, not even Tim, could point to why. I'd like to believe that Lowe just had a bad year, or several bad games that caused his numbers to be skewed away from what they normally would be.
When you look at his month-by-month stats he had three really good months that were in-line with or better than his career numbers, and three months where the numbers look absolutely horrible. Each of those horrible months the poor totals can be attributed to one or two really bad games,in which he gave up a significant amount of runs, but in the other games those months he continued to pitch well until the final month of the season. Here are some of his month-by-month starts for 2009 with quality starts highlighted:
| Month | Quality Starts | Total Starts | ERA |
| April | 3 | 5 | 3.10 |
| May | 5 | 6 | 3.76 |
| June | 4 | 6 | 6.54 |
| July | 4 | 5 | 3.38 |
| August | 3 | 6 | 5.08 |
| Sep/Oct | 2 | 7 | 6.23 |
While Quality Starts may not be the best judge of a pitcher's actual ability, we can see from these numbers that even in the bad months Lowe was still pitching good games and getting wins. This is probably why it's hard to figure why Lowe's record was the same as Javier Vazquez' record when Javy had an ERA that was almost two runs less. In Javy's case it was a lot of bad luck, bad run support, and bad bullpen, but that luck can cut both ways. Even putting luck aside, Lowe was his typical self for the vast majority of his starts, it was just those handful of starts that crushed his overall numbers.
So don't get too down on Derek Lowe. We still have a very good pitcher, and if other teams are looking at these numbers, perhaps they too will find value in what Lowe can bring them. This also should help to ensure that no one will be too terribly crushed if the Braves don't trade Lowe this off-season. He still won 15 games, and there's a reason for that -- he was the pitcher we paid for in most of those games.
At the beginning of this piece I would never have thought I would end up defending the 2009 season of Derek Lowe, but there you have it.
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Good work sir.
Very good work. Takes some cahones to look at things the way they are, through an unemotional filter, and change your stance. Applause.
And I completely agree with everything you’ve said.
http://www.capitolavenueclub.com/
by PWHjort on Nov 3, 2009 2:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
On a totally unrelated note
I hate this new site layout.
Not just because it is a change from what I was used to, but because it literally hurts my eyes. IDK what it is about the font layout or text size and whatnot, but it literally makes my head hurt to read the front page.
WTF guys
60% of the time, it works every time
by ATLandUNC on Nov 3, 2009 2:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I’m not thrilled. There are a lot of rumblings and I expect more refinements in the coming days.
by gondeee on Nov 3, 2009 2:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I’m with you guys – on the new site layout, that is. Bleeeeech.
Not sold on DLowe though. I don’t hate the guy (he’s too goofy to be hated), but imho we still gave him waaay too much money.
by Lizziebeth on Nov 3, 2009 3:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Same on the website
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. It was just great the way it was.
I think we all thought we paid him waaay to much money, but the thing is we had to. We had no guarantees of other starting pitchers so Wren had to throw that kind of money at him to make sure that he didn’t go to NYM. I still think he’s a good pitcher, imo.
(Yunel is still the Queen of Hearts)
by GoBravesNY on Nov 3, 2009 8:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The layout is really choppy, and the colors don’t blend well. I much prefer the old way.
by eaheckman10 on Nov 3, 2009 7:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i think its kinda pretty...
hohohhohohoh its the offseason, time to rosterbate in public places
by esadb on Nov 3, 2009 8:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
And it is for exactly what was said here...
that I think those claiming his contract to be some mosterous hurdle that can’t be overcome for a trade are false. He had a handful of bad starts. The guy is still capable of being a horse, and while not cheap, that is not far out of line with what he can provide.
by Mr. Sanchez on Nov 3, 2009 3:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Lowe
As I discussed in an earlier post on Lowe, the problem with him in 2009 was his slider, which went from being an excellent pitch in 2008 to a horrible pitch in 2009.
The velocity remained fairly constant but he lost some of the break on the pitch, allowing hitters to lay off (increased BB rates and dropping K rates), which put Lowe into a situation where he was throwing more fastballs in hitters counts (increased contact and hit rates).
Lowe’s slider is the key for a rejuvenated 2010.
If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.
by Yakker on Nov 3, 2009 5:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Kind of makes you curious
I can think of about four starts where the camera caught Lowe at least once, where, he’s biting, examining, or having a trainer filing down his fingers. Obviously, I’m not going to pretend like I followed his career in Boston and LA, but I don’t ever recall hearing about him having such problems with blisters in the past. Considering the general slider grip, I’m guessing this has to do a lot with his flattened slider throughout 2009. Furthermore, I can’t help but wonder what’s so different about pitching in Atlanta that has him developing these nuisance blisters?
No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.
by royhobbs on Nov 3, 2009 5:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I wonder if it’s the blisters, or something else. I forget who, but someone suggested that it might have something to do with the humidity and Lowe’s inability to grip the baseball.
I think Lowe’s had blisters for years. There were rumors that he actually threw bloody baseballs at times when he was in Boston, especially when he pitched out of the bullpen.
If I have some time (it’s fine if someone beats me to it), I’d be interested in seeing what kind of slider break Lowe got in 2007/08 in humid environments. Unfortunately, Lowe only pitched at the Ted in the lower-humidity spring months in 2007/08, but I saw a potential start at Washington in late 08 that might be worth a PitchFx gander.
If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.
by Yakker on Nov 3, 2009 6:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
A few other thoughts, all based on PitchFx data here:
http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.aspx?playerid=199&position=P
It looks like Lowe threw his 2-seam FB much more frequently in 2009 than in previous years, easing off the slider. This might be a conscious decision to try to save his arm, because the slider was ineffective, or something else entirely. According to PitchFx, Lowe’s 2-seamer also added a ton of horizontal movement, like the slider.
If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.
by Yakker on Nov 3, 2009 7:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Braves fell into the I really need pussy category and F’d the first fat bitch they saw!! How can you drink Captin Morgan responsibly, u cant!
Baseball is my life
by That a boy on Nov 3, 2009 11:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
The dude won 15 games
in what was arguably his worst season. If he bounces back, what a year he could have.
by MoBrave on Nov 3, 2009 11:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
You don’t win 15 by accident. How many was he supposed to win? I can’t believe people are ready to trade him for a bag of balls and a case of ranch flavored sunflower seeds.
by samxrm on Nov 4, 2009 1:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
make that BBQ and you gotta deal
"Im a fullonrapist, I do men, women, autistic kids, children, the elderly." -Charlie Kelly
by Hcgadawgs on Nov 4, 2009 8:44 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
There's been too much hatin' on this guy this year.
I was a big proponent of signing him, though I was hoping against hope it could be done for a couple mil less per year, but this is what the game has come to- you just can’t sign any free agent who’s any better than “meh” without having to outbid at least one of the New York teams. Or at least it feels that way.
That being said, I think we should move him if we can just for budget room to get a bat, not because I’m desperate to ship him out of town. I still believe in him, and I’m not saying we have to dump him- but considering our situation, which I won’t rehash because we all ought to be on the same page by now, we have too much money in pitching and need to turn some of it into a bat. If that can’t be done in a straight-up trade for one of our two most expensive pitchers, then moving one of them to clear salary money and then signing a bat is the way to go. I’d be a little more miffed to see Javy go, but again I still believe in Lowe and there’s a big part of me that doubts Javy’s ability to repeat (go ahead and ream me for that if you must, but having watched him all these years it’s hard to make the case he’ll keep up this level of success).
Bottom line- Lowe is not as bad as his numbers this year. Everybody chill.
by J-Freak on Nov 4, 2009 3:07 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
i have a hard time
believing its the humidity , look at John Smoltz’s slider one of the best in baseball . I do think Lowe will bounce back to maybe a run lower in ERA but If Javy gets traded that leaves us with 1 starting pitcher with a great faseball Hanson who is still young and still doesnt have alot of innings under his belt . Javy could have easily had 20 wins if we could have given him the same run support we gave Lowe .
by ~~banditwolf~~ on Nov 4, 2009 3:40 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
KK is the better option.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Nov 4, 2009 10:56 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
More cost effective option...
not “better”
by Mr. Sanchez on Nov 4, 2009 1:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Possibly better
His numbers were surprisingly good for his first year in American baseball, despite a rough start. He’s more cost effective, that is fact, but whether or not he is a better option than DLowe is actually open to interpretation; I’m having a hard time making up my mind one way or the other. DLowe’s got a longer track record, sure, but KK is younger and by all accounts got his American growing pains behind him this past year and will only be better going forward.
by J-Freak on Nov 4, 2009 1:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Japanese players don't generally have "growing pains"...
they tend to peak in year 1 and regress as the league becomes more familiar with them. And while I agree Kawakami had a solid season, and it’s all just a guess anyway, but I’d think Lowe’s track record leads to thinking he can get better, while the Japanese track record says that’s as good as Kawakami gets. But for what the club is looking for, especially if they can resign Vasquez long term to go with Hanson, Jurrjens, and Hudson, then Kawakami makes the most sense as 5th starter, if only because of the contract.
by Mr. Sanchez on Nov 4, 2009 2:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I disagree on the Japanese player learning curve. Yes the league has to adjust to them, but I think you underestimate the adjustments the Japanese players have to make when they come over. It’s just a different flavor of baseball to them, particularly having one fewer man in the rotation over here and having a longer schedule, which means they pitch a lot more than they used to. Even Dice-K just had a sort of decent break-in year but got better in his follow-up season.
by J-Freak on Nov 4, 2009 2:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Agree, This new look makes my eyes hurt. About DL. He got off to a fast start this season and seemed to tail off late in the season. Not sure if he was hurt or just burned out or too old. He did manage to get 15 wins and if it wasnt for the bullpen(just like every other starter) could of easily had 17 wins. Yes, he is old but he is the only pitcher in our rotation with a WS ring and playoff experience(I think Javy does as well) I say you keep DL….
by AlRoBraves95 on Nov 4, 2009 11:43 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
1) Lowe’s future predictive ERA are better than his raw 2009 ERA.
2) Lowe still projects to be our 6th best SP.
3) How many wins would Lowe have had if he had Jurrjens run support?
4) Lowe has past success in the bullpen. Kawakami not so much.
My preference would be for Lowe to be long relief when ahead, for 3 IP saves, with spots as the 6th SP.
by Drom John on Nov 4, 2009 12:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Lowe may be a bit expensive to be a closer, but in a worst case scenario, let him be the closer. He’s done it before and was very good at it.
by samxrm on Nov 4, 2009 3:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Don’t know about whether Lowe would be a better closer (or long reliever, even) than KK. I have no idea how to analyse that. Although, pitching to contact like Lowe does doesn’t sound very comforting for somebody who only pitches for one inning (see crazy Mets game: 3 scoreless innings followed by one inning with 10GB + 1LD + 2FB = 8 runs). Either way that’s not the point.
If in fact Lowe is going to be a better closer/lr and we can’t or don’t want to trade him, then the $15mil is a non-issue.
Consider it already spent. It’s gone. Sure he’d be the most expensive closer in baseball, but a sunk cost is a sunk cost. He’s considered capital that can’t be liquidated at this point, so we just have to roll with the punches and use him where he’ll be most effective in order to generate as much production out of that spent money as possible.
by sgrapevine on Nov 4, 2009 4:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I mean there were a lot of factors that you could say contributed to Lowe’s down year. However we have 5 other pitchers that pitched better than him this year and possibly better than what he would have done in a career norm year. With that said, he has the biggest contract and would give us the most salary relief.
If we sign a guy for our LF vacancy that has some upside but fairly cheap at the same time (Xavier Nady) then i could see us dealing Lowe for a prospect or two to beef up our prospect ranks.
However if someone like Nady isnt available we might end up having to deal Javy simply because he would net us the biggest return. I wouldnt want to but at the same time i could see it happening.
I say deal Lowe for prospects. Extend Javy. Sign Nady to play RF. Non-Tender Church. Play Diaz in LF. Sign LaRoche. Somewhere in there sign a closer, whether it be Gonzo, Soriano, Wagner, etc. Personally i think Wagner will have the best year out of any of those three next year and be the cheapest.
field a lineup of
Diaz LF
McLouth CF
Chip 3B
Nady RF
McCann C
Escobar SS
LaRoche 1B
Prado 2B
by drumzalicious on Nov 4, 2009 7:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
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