Talking Chop Top-25 Braves Prospects: 16-20
by gondeee on Nov 24, 2009 8:00 AM EST
in Prospect Reviews
25 comments
Our countdown of the top-25 prospects in the Atlanta Braves organization continues with #16 through #20:
16. Cory Gearrin, RHRP :: B/T: 6'3" Born: 04/04/1986 Ht: 6'3" Wt: 200
Last Year's Talking Chop Rank: NR
The Skinny: Was a dominant college reliever that the Braves took in the 4th round of the 2007 draft and has since shined at two levels in 2009.
The Good: He throws a hard heavy fastball that produces a lot of strikeouts and ground balls that is accompanied by a hard biting slider that baffles hitters at time. In years past his command and control were an issue as he walked almost as many batters as innings pitched. In 2009 however he corrected that problem and his control was an asset instead of a question mark.
The Bad: Not much honestly. He has only been pitching since his freshman year of college and he is still growing into his sidearm delivery. We have to hope the control problems are truly behind him.
...In a perfect world... he slots in behind Craig Kimbrel for the next 6 seasons as the Braves setup may a la Peter Moylan.
ETA: I wouldn't be surprised to see him start 2010 with the Braves if he impresses in spring training, but a call up later in the year is more likely.
...for a full scouting report, go here.
17. Jacob Thompson, RHSP :: B/T: R/R Born: 11/19/1986 Ht: 6'6" Wt: 215
Last Year's Talking Chop Rank: NR
The Skinny: Once thougt of as a first round talent, he was considered a fifth round steal in the 2008 draft, and performed better in 2009 after a promotion to a higher level.
The Good: Huge, strong frame. Deceptive delivery. Best pitch is a diving curveball. Is a workhorse, leading the entire Braves Minor League system in innings this season. Listens to instruction well, as shown by his progress under Guy Hansen's tutelage at Myrtle Beach.
The Bad: Lankiness makes it hard for him to repeat his delivery. Hasn't shown himself to be a strikeout pitcher and walked too many batters in 2009. Hasn't shown the ability to remain consistent as a pro.
...In a perfect world...he regains the brilliance he showed in his early college career and becomes a top of the rotation starter. Barring that, he still works effectively as a middle to back of the rotation innings eater.
ETA: With his success at Myrtle Beach he seems likely to open 2010 at Missisissippi, so an Atlanta debut next season isn't out of the question. Look for him to stick sometime in 2011.
...for a full scouting report, go here.
18. Benino Pruneda, RHRP :: B/T: R/R Born: 08/08/1988 Ht: 5'9" Wt: 170
Last Year's Talking Chop Rank: NR
The Skinny: Had a great year at Rome in 2008 and started well in 2009 only to fade late in the season as he struggled while giving up too many walks.
The Good: Pruneda throws hard for a guy his size, generating a fastball that can hit the mid 90s and creates a lot of groundballs. He also gets his share of strikeouts.
The Bad: So far he hasn't shown any signs of breaking down, but whenever you have a guy who throws this hard and is this small there are going to be questions about his durability. He also struggled with his control this year walking over 15% of the batters he faced, and he struggled against RH after he was promoted to Myrtle Beach.
...In a perfect world... Pruneda harnesses his stuff and brings his walks down and becomes a reliable power arm in the late innings
ETA: The Braves might send him back to Myrtle Beach to start 2010 after his second half struggles last season. If all goes well he could be in Atlanta by the end of 2011 or the beginning of 2012.
...for a full scouting report, go here.
19. Scott Diamond, LHSP :: B/T: L/L Born: 07/301986 HT: 6'3" WT:190
Last Year's Talking Chop Rank: 22
The Skinny: Diamond was an unheralded and undrafted player who signed as a free agent with the Braves after the 2007 draft. He used family connections to get a tryout with the Braves and has been impressive at every level since.
The Good: He throws 4 pitches for strikes and will throw any of them on any side of the plate in any count. Scouts describe him as fearless and praise his ability to keep the ball down in the zone to create groundballs. He passed the AA test that most people consider the most difficult transition in baseball.
The Bad: Scott fits in perfectly with most of our other LHP prospects in that he doesn't throw very hard. His K rates were low in AA and he gave up a lot of hits. For him to succeed he has to be incredibly fine with his pitches.
...In a perfect world... his ability to command the strike zone continues to play up at AAA and the majors and he becomes a back of the rotation starter or a an excellent situational lefty.
ETA: Diamond could find himself back in AA next season or start in AAA. He probably won't get a look until 2011 unless things go horribly wrong in Atlanta.
...for a full scouting report, go here.
20. Brandon Hicks, SS :: B/T: R/R Born: 9/14/1985 Ht: 6'2" Wt: 200
Last Year's Talking Chop Rank: 12
The Skinny: Defensive stalwart has shown the ability to slug and strikeout.
The Good: Excellent defensive shortstop with a strong, accurate arm who rarely makes mistakes. Is a fine all around player with a ton of pop in his bat. One of the hardest workers in the system.
The Bad: His power seemed to vanish when he couldn't adapt to Mississippi's home park. He cut down his strikeout rate in 2009 but the Ks are still a major concern. His lack of range and his thick body will like necessitae a move off of shortstop to third base.
...In a perfect world...he becomes a more polished hitter, getting his strikeouts in check, and becomes Atlanta's long term solution at third base after Chipper Jones' retirement.
ETA: He'll likely return to Mississippi to start 2010 but with a strong season he could see time with Atlanta late in the season. Should be poised to grab a full time spot by mid 2011.
...for a full scouting report, go here.
Tomorrow the countdown to the top-10 continues with 5 exciting young pitchers.
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I’m looking forward to seeing Jacob Thompson and Cory Gearrin.
Brandon Hicks is a nice prospect, but it just doesn’t seem like he’ll cut down on those Ks. Anyone think Hicks we’ll develop into a nice MLB player?
I think he’ll be a decent player. Strikeouts, while I personally don’t like them, aren’t that big of a deal, especially if you’ve got a fair amount of power and play great defense, like Hicks. I don’t know that he’ll ever be a star or even a long term regular, but he’s already in AA and if you take out the major effect that Mississippi’s park had on his numbers then he showed an ability to hit AA pitching. The lessons he learns in adapting to a park that takes out his homers can only help him.
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will hicks be in gwinett next year?
"Im a fullonrapist, I do men, women, autistic kids, children, the elderly." -Charlie Kelly
I’d guess he’ll be there the second half of the year. He probably needs to go back to Mississippi to start.
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After his quite good showing in AZ, I’d be sorta surprised if they don’t push him straight up to AAA. He is blocked, somewhat, by Diory Hernandez, but not really, and if he’s the leading candidate to take over at 3B, he needs the challenge of AAA competition sooner, not later.
I don’t necessarily understand why he needs to be challenged sooner rather than later. There’s nothing wrong with letting him build on his success, build his confidence, and then let him move up. He’s not very likely to unseat either Chipper or Yunel, so there isn’t much rush, and there aren’t any other shortstops behind him in the system immediately pressuring him from behind. I don’t really see the value in moving the guy up just to challenge him. It’s very likely that he could start out in Gwinnett, because of his AZ performance and what he does in ST, but that will only be because they think he’s ready, not to challenge him.
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I suppose I was less than clear. If he’s not ready for AAA, it is obvious he should stay at AA.
But since he’s already had a full season there and did fairly well, was thought highly enough of to be sent to the AFL and was impressive there, will be 25 by the end of next season, I don’t see why he “probably needs to go back to Mississippi”.
I’m not seeing how a .692 OPS over the course of the season is doing “fairly well”. He did get better toward the end of the year, with a .773 OPS in August and a 1.300 OPS in 24 August at bats and yes, in 87 at bats in the AFL he did great, with a .848 OPS, but is that improvement at the end of the year enough to say that he mastered AA? He was still very bad at home, just a .624 OPS for the whole season and he still struck out a ton, 131 times. Yes, he probably needs to go back to Mississippi, because if he goes up to AAA, he’s going to get eaten alive at this point.
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why then do you progosicate that he could see time with Atlanta late in the season? If AAA pitching is going to eat him up, major league pitching would surely crush him beyond recognition.
That’s a complete logical fallacy. First, I had a writeup on Diory Hernandez before the season where I said he’d see time with Atlanta this year. I was right, he did, but I didn’t say anything about how he’d fare. Does that mean I was wrong to correctly guess it, just because I didn’t think he’d be overly successful and he was actually much worse that I could have imagined?
Next, starting the year in AAA and ending the year in the Majors are completely and totally separate things. It’s the Tommy Hanson argument; he needed the time in AAA this year to succeed at the higher level and I personally feel that Hicks needs time at AA the first part of the year to succeed at AAA the second part of the year. It seems likely that, given his age and the possibility of AAA success that he could see time in Atlanta late in the year. I didn’t say he was going to go up and not get crushed, I just said, through sound logic, that he could, notice the qualifier, could, see time with Atlanta.
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how would you compare the level of talent in the AFL each year to AAA across the board? better, worse, or does it just kind of change from year to year?
"When life gives you lemons, just say 'F*ck the lemons,' and bail."
by Bravely going forward on Nov 24, 2009 5:09 PM EST up reply actions
I have to preface my entire answer with the fact that I’ve never actually been able to go out to AZ to see the AFL, so I don’t actually have first hand knowledge of the league.
That being said, I’d say it’s a bit below AAA, if only because of the pitching. Yes, the sheer level of prospects that you can see in any given game is better than you could find in a week’s worth of AA or AAA games, but the big difference is that top tier pitchers often don’t go to the league. The majority of the guys who end up there are either coming off of injuries or, for one reason or another, either because of injury or bouncing between the rotation and the bullpen, didn’t pitch as much during the year as the team would like. And, even if most of the pitchers are top prospects, they don’t have the experience that you see in at least every other AAA game. The only thing keeping most AAA starters out of the Majors on any given day is consistency; most of them have the stuff and the mind to carve up young hitters. Most of the pitchers that frequent the AFL don’t have the mental knowledge of pitching to get over on hitters as good as the ones they send out there.
So, from my perspective, that’s why you see the hitters do so well out there, and why I’d have a hard time saying it’s as high a level as AAA.
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How does he compare to Derosa?...
older prospect, big SS who probably fits better elsewhere defensively. Good bat with pop, but not special. Any idea how the two compare?
And surprised to see Diamond at 19. Really? Gearrin seems nice, Hicks or Thompson maybe, but hard to get excited about anyone here.
by Mr. Sanchez on Nov 24, 2009 12:44 PM EST up reply actions
That’s a pretty interesting question, cause I never really thought about comparing those two before. It’s a good start, since they were both the same age, 23, in their AA season, but after that I don’t think they’re all that similar. I actually got to see DeRo a lot on the way up, with Durham, Greenville, and then a ton with Richmond, so I remember him pretty well. First thing, he was a much better athlete. That was his big thing, the guy was an athlete who was still learning baseball. Hicks is a little bigger, a little thicker, and while he’s probably not the same class athlete, he’s probably a better baseball player. With that in mind, in the minors there really wasn’t any question that DeRo belonged at SS, he was athletic enough for it and had a great arm, but the presence of Raffy Furcal meant that he just wasn’t going to play there for Atlanta, which is what led to him moving around. Sure, when he got older and bulked up he wasn’t right for SS anymore, but on the way up it was a clean fit, so that’s a little different than Hicks.
Also, DeRo didn’t have the K problem as bad. His walks were a lot closer to his Ks, while Hicks has over a 2 to 1 K to BB ratio going. But, he never had anywhere near the pop that Hicks has, since Hicks already has 37 homers in 2 1/2 seasons and DeRo only hit 24 in 5 1/2 seasons. If Hicks plays 2 more years in the minors he’ll end up with a good advantage in doubles and triples too.
DeRo had better batting averages, but he wasn’t as good of a hitting prospect, the on base skills are about the same and the slugging heavily favors Hicks, and while he seemed more likely to stick at SS than Hicks does, Hicks is also a great defensive SS, so might not have to move off the position.
Honestly, I’m gonna have to say, taking everything into account, Hicks is a better prospect than DeRo was at the same point in their careers.
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indeed
"When life gives you lemons, just say 'F*ck the lemons,' and bail."
by Bravely going forward on Nov 24, 2009 5:12 PM EST up reply actions
I worry about minor league K's
Because if AA pitchers are punching you out that often, major league pitchers can probably do it more, and when contact rates fall to a certain number the player is worthless as a hitter.
Bold prediction: Jason Heyward will be number one.
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by alligatorimpersonator on Nov 24, 2009 3:56 PM EST reply actions
Who can we compare Hicks to?
In no way I’m a an expert and I’d like others opionions on this but it sounds offensively that he reminds me of a guy named Jose Hernandez (remember him?). Anyone agree?
I could see that.
If he had a full year of MLB AB’s, he could set the all-time K record like Hernandez. I doubt he would have the productivity at the plate, but he would be better in the field.
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