Interesting Free Agent Rankings

by gondeee on Nov 20, 2009 9:33 AM EST in Braves Related Free Agents

Keith Law ranks the top-50 free agents at ESPN Insider. Some interesting notes:

He lists Mike Gonzalez 16th, ahead of Rafael Soriano, saying they are the two best relievers on the market, but he considers Gonzo healthier and more valuable from the left side.
Rafael Soriano is 19th, and the thing that jumped out at me is that Law says he should be looking for K-Rod type money in a contract. Francisco Rodriguez got a 3-year, $37 million deal after leading the AL in saves, Soriano has been a full-time closer for less than a year, and as my 2009 review of him showed, he regressed throughout 2009. I can't see a team desperate enough to give Soriano that type of money, or even close. Maybe I'm misjudging the market for relievers.
Billy Wagner is ranked 23rd, and Law says of him that the biggest concern is if he can handle the closer's workload, and that an incentive-laden contract for games finished would make sense for the signing team. I can see the Braves being open to something along those lines.
He mentions a Japanese reliever named Ryota Igarashi, and I can see the Braves taking a chance on him if he chooses to come to the States.
Adam LaRoche is listed 29th, and while the review is not glowing -- pointing out his overall averageness and his first half swoon -- Law seems to think that some team will still pay him like a regular first baseman in both salary and years. This could easily put the Braves out of the running. I still think our best option is to offer him arbitration and act excited if he accepts, keeping him around for one more year.
I noticed that there were a lot of free agent second basemen. Teams needing a second baseman and not wanting to give up the draft picks to sign one of the free agents may create a market for Kelly Johnson.

Good overview of the free agents by Law, if you're an insider you should check it out.

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I can’t see a team desperate enough to give Soriano that type of money, or even close. Maybe I’m misjudging the market for relievers.

The teams that have scouted and done their homework will probably be after Soriano and Gonzalez, whereas the dumb teams will be after Jose Valverde and Fernando Rodney. Soriano and Gonzo’s numbers haven’t been the best these past few years, but I think Law is right in that they’re the two best, purely in terms of future value, relievers on the market. You’re probably right, though, the dumb teams making plays for the Valverde’s of the bunch will drive the price of Soriano and Gonzalez down, and I doubt either gets anywhere close to K-Rod money.

This:

I noticed that there were a lot of free agent second basemen. Teams needing a second baseman and not wanting to give up the draft picks to sign one of the free agents may create a market for Kelly Johnson.

Is a great call.

http://www.capitolavenueclub.com/

by PWHjort on Nov 20, 2009 9:42 AM EST reply actions

But does KJ even get offered arb?...

guess we’ll see by the end of the month. I doubt we offer just to use him as trade bait.

And Soriano at that much money is just insane to me. Sign him to 3 years and big money, I’d expect at most a season and a half at the level he did in the first half of this past year. K-Rod was consistently dominant for several years. Soriano is on again, off again, usually pretty good, but frequent health issues, and nothing like Rodriguez—who’s never had health problems (59 or more games every full season) and was at times one of the more dominant closers in all of baseball with the Angels with multiple years as good as Soriano’s half season.

by Mr. Sanchez on Nov 20, 2009 9:52 AM EST up reply actions

Lopez probably won't get offered arb

and even if he is, he’s a B.

by Salty on Nov 20, 2009 10:54 AM EST up reply actions

Sign BIlly!

"Im a fullonrapist, I do men, women, autistic kids, children, the elderly." -Charlie Kelly

by Hcgadawgs on Nov 20, 2009 9:42 AM EST reply actions

You know, his agent’s name is Bean Stringfellow… I forgot to mention that in the original post. Bean Stringfellow.

by gondeee on Nov 20, 2009 10:49 AM EST up reply actions

I bet he makes a delightful cup of tea.

"...Braves tie! ...Braves tie! ...Braves tie!"

by The Keith Lockhart Era on Nov 20, 2009 12:45 PM EST up reply actions

Wow

If Soriano is getting K-Rod money and Gonzo is ahead of him there is no way the braves retain either.

Offer Arb and dont make a serious attempt to re-sign them. Just grab Billy Wagner and a SU man and call it a day.

Also good call on KJ. I wonder if KJ and Lowe could go to the Brewers

by drumzalicious on Nov 20, 2009 9:59 AM EST reply actions

They’ve got too many infielders. If they weren’t committed to Weeks, and I’m not sure about the wisdom of that, they’d probably make an effort to keep Felipe Lopez.

Last year before the bidding even started, they said they weren’t interested in Lowe. Just a guess, but I’d think they’d need about a third of his contract to be picked up.

by Salty on Nov 20, 2009 10:59 AM EST up reply actions

Weeks

The plan always was for Weeks to end up in CF. He’d be a better fit there defensively, and the pivot has been very tough for him injury-wise.

Although with Carlos Gomez in the mix now, I don’t know if the plans have changed.

If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.

by Yakker on Nov 20, 2009 12:53 PM EST up reply actions

Judging from Carlos Gomez's career #s...

I doubt they are relying on him to take over CF everyday.

by Mr. Sanchez on Nov 20, 2009 1:01 PM EST up reply actions

Well, they are letting Cameron walk, and the quotes from the deal all suggest they’re turning over CF to Gomez. Although if Cain is healthy he may get a shot in CF too.

If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.

by Yakker on Nov 20, 2009 2:29 PM EST up reply actions

Gomez is no worse than a platoon

His defense is too damn good to be used as a bench guy, he’;; be out there semi-regularly at worst. If he improve his average a little and draw more walks, with his speed he could become a dynamite leadoff man. Your guess is as good as mine whether he can make those adjustments, but if he does he will turn out to be a very strong investment.

by J-Freak on Nov 20, 2009 4:58 PM EST up reply actions

They think he can improve offensively

a few more hits and a few more walks. A scary thing I hear about him is that he has a very low baseball IQ however one wants to interpret that. Despite being very fast, he doesn’t seem very good at stealing bases which would suggest that might be true.

A good thing I hear are Twins fans saying he has the best defense in the AL. Despite most Brewers fans being spoiled, that’s a good thing.

by Salty on Nov 20, 2009 6:06 PM EST up reply actions

Franklin Gutierrez was actually the best defensive CF in the AL this year, but Gomez was next best. The boy is a great fielder.

by J-Freak on Nov 20, 2009 6:39 PM EST up reply actions

Whose plans?

There is no evidence that he would even be adequate in CF.

He hurt one wrist waggling a bat on the bench. I think the other wrist happened when he was swinging. I kind of like his pivot technique of using the bag to protect himself.

by Salty on Nov 20, 2009 5:58 PM EST up reply actions

He can’t be any worse in CF than he is at 2B.

Weeks hurt himself both at the plate and on the field. Moving him might make sense given his injury history and the fact that 2Bs tend to wear down more quickly than others.

If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.

by Yakker on Nov 20, 2009 7:46 PM EST up reply actions

He was never bad at 2B and he really improved last season. CF is a hard position to play. The whole thing with moving him started with Neyer or Law or one of those guys who think that a half dozen players per team should shuffle positions.

I don’t remember him hurting himself in the field. He’s actually pretty big and strong. The camera makes him look smaller than he is until you see him standing next to another player.

by Salty on Nov 20, 2009 10:28 PM EST up reply actions

I’m in a hurry so I’ll make this quick. Hopefully you can fill in the blanks.

1. UZR at 2B

2. Defensive spectrum

If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.

by Yakker on Nov 22, 2009 7:00 PM EST up reply actions

Igarashi

If anyone’s interested, NPB Tracker wrote up a profile about Ryota Igarashi back in May: http://www.npbtracker.com/2009/05/player-profile-ryota-igarashi/#content

by Kinsey on Nov 20, 2009 10:13 AM EST reply actions

Very interesting. Thanks for the link.

"...Braves tie! ...Braves tie! ...Braves tie!"

by The Keith Lockhart Era on Nov 20, 2009 12:46 PM EST up reply actions

Terrific

Thank you.

If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.

by Yakker on Nov 20, 2009 12:50 PM EST up reply actions

According to rumors, the Yankees are looking at Gonzo and Soriano but don’t want to give up the draft picks. They will wait to see if arbitration is offered. The Red Sox have asked for Gonzo’s medical records.

by braves99 on Nov 20, 2009 10:42 AM EST reply actions

Yanks signing either is a very bad sign

We’ll end up getting Blue Jay’d- that is, we’ll end up with the Yanks’ 2nd or 3rd round pick instead of first, because the first rounder will go to either the Sox or Cards when the Yanks sign Bay or Holliday. If the Yanks sweep the top agents again and sign Holliday and Lackey, then tack on our two relievers, we’ll get 3rd and 4th round picks. They really, REALLY need to sign somewhere other than New York.

by J-Freak on Nov 20, 2009 11:56 AM EST up reply actions

I doubt the Yankees sign both or even either

Remember they have Rivera; they might pay closer money for one set-up guy, but they won’t pay it for two set-up guys.

by cavebird on Nov 20, 2009 12:41 PM EST up reply actions

Michael Kay was on Cowherd...

and said Gonzo was the yankees most necessary signing, as a solid lefty and reliable 8th inning option since both Hughes and Joba are expected to be starters.

by Mr. Sanchez on Nov 20, 2009 1:12 PM EST up reply actions

Humbug.

F@ck the Yankees, stay away from our Type A’s!!!

by J-Freak on Nov 20, 2009 4:55 PM EST up reply actions

Well I was hopping at least Gonzo would be Back but the Braves will not be able to retain either it seems, who is closing for us next year is a big ? mark at this point.

Baseball is my life

by That a boy on Nov 20, 2009 12:13 PM EST reply actions

Wagner

Hopefully. Somebody go grab Bean Stringfellow and make it happen.

by J-Freak on Nov 20, 2009 12:20 PM EST up reply actions

I can’t see a team desperate enough to give Soriano that type of money, or even close. Maybe I’m misjudging the market for relievers.

I think you are. Even Aaron Heilman, who was about to get non-tendered, just garnered two decent prospects from AZ.

If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.

by Yakker on Nov 20, 2009 12:51 PM EST reply actions

At first, I was hoping Soriano would sign commit to the Braves longterm

But now, I’m just hoping Wren is smart here and will offer both arbitration so if they do leave, Atlanta gets atleast some compensation for their loss.

by SmithnCompany on Nov 20, 2009 8:32 PM EST reply actions

They ought to offer arb to everyone but GA. It ought to be a no-brainer, Roachie Sori and Gonzo are all better-than-50/50 odds to walk, and if we end up keeping roachie and one of the two, it solves some of our vacancies. The way the market is shaping up, we’re in the unusual spot of being able to comfortably offer arb to all of them without fearing they all accept and screw up our finances. If we play our cards right, we could end up with really strong draft positioning next year.

by J-Freak on Nov 20, 2009 8:38 PM EST up reply actions