that’s like comparing hockey to “professional” bowling.

in baseball, you play every day.
in golf, you play competitively 4 (or maybe only 2) days a week, every couple of weeks.

in baseball, you have one shot to hit the ball, with one bat. you also have less than 1 second to decide if you wanna swing or not.
in golf, you have to hit 3 or 4 times, with a whole variety of clubs to swing. the guys take 5 minutes before they hit the ball, and have a caddy right next to them suggesting what club to use.

in baseball, there’s balls in the gap that have to be ran down, grounders to dive for and long throws to make.
in golf, you swing once, walk, swing again, walk, swing again, walk, and putt.

there’s absolutely no comparisons between golf and baseball.

First of all, he’s never struck out over 40%. Last year he struck out in 35% of his plate appearances. It’s already a huge number, there’s no reason to embellish it.

Cust, as a 20 year old struck out in 26% of his plate appearances and his OPS was 1.100, so clearly he was better than Cody. He was also aided by the hitter friendly Cal League, but that’s sort of beside the point.

Dunn struck out in 19% of his plate appearnaces as a 20 year old, but he was playing a level below Cody. Who’s to say what he would have done at the higher level.

Reynolds struck out in 24% of his plate appearances as a 20 year old, but, like Dunn, he spent most of the year at a lower level, 2 levels below in fact, playing just 4 games at the same A ball level that Cody played at this year. Again, who knows what he would have done?

And Howard didn’t even begin his professional career until he was 21, when he struck out in 27% of his plate appearances playing 2 levels below where Cody played this year, a level he wouldn’t play at until he was 23. Again, who’s to say that he wouldn’t have struck out in 35% of his plate appearances had he spent his 20 year old season in High A. In Howard’s case, even more than the others, it’s seems entirely plausible, if not likely.

My point is, you can’t absolutely discount the guy. It’s going to be hard for him, but it’s hard for anyone.

Mark Reynolds has been playing professional baseball in the minors and majors for 5 more seasons than CJ has. You gotta think CJ is gonna improve tremendously over the next 5 seasons after seeing him improve so much in 2009.

I’m not building my arguments off of blind thinking that he won’t fail, that would be absolutely ridiculous. I’m saying that there’s a tiny chance of him succeeding off of what he has done in the minors and the history of prospects like him. And where exactly are my “dumb, heavily loaded statements”? Is it saying that he strikes out a ton and with that in mind will almost certainly struggle more against higher level pitching? Is that ridiculous in your mind?

I’ve desperately looked for even one power hitter playing the game today who has even a close minor league record as CJ and can’t do it. Russell Branyan is about as close as I can find and even he isn’t really all that close and isn’t a great example of a success story.