Bring back my boy AJ
After reading the fanpost, "Andruw Jones wants his job back," I realized that I had almost forgotten about my favorite former Braves player. AJ was my childhood favorite due to his incredible defensive talent, his ability to slug 35 home runs a year, and he was always smiling about something (most likely food) every single at-bat.
An idea that was brought up (and quickly shot down) in the comments section was "wait a second, could we really get Andruw back? Is he worth anything anymore?" I began entertaining the idea of having AJ back in the lineup if he were his old self, and to be honest, I liked the idea of seeing him back. I decided to do a little research to see if Jones's career really is completely done, or if maybe he could bounce back - in an Atlanta Braves uniform.
Last year with the Rangers, in 281 AB's, Andruw's line looked like this: .214/.323/.459 giving him a .782 OPS, with 17 homers and 43 RBI's. Now, that seems pretty bad.
Except for that home run total. In fact, for his number of AB's, that home run total is very good. His HR/AB ratio was 1/16.5 - that is very good. How many home runs does that translate to over the course of a whole season? From 1998-2007, he averaged 590.3 AB's a season. If you put Andruw's 2009 HR/AB ratio over the course of an entire season (590.3 AB's), he would hit a rounded total of 36 home runs. Hmmm...that looks just like his old home run totals.
Another thing stood out to me was that Andruw's OBP was over .100 points higher than his BA. The number of walks AJ took last season was surprising to me - 45! This is a huge improvement for Andruw, showing that he has more plate discipline. Over the course of an entire season, AJ would have racked up approx. 95 walks in '09 - which is, believe it or not, better than Chipper's season average of about 90 BB per season.
When I took a look at Andruw's 2009 monthly splits, I saw that he had a fantastic April, an okay May, a very bad June, a great July (.964 OPS, 8 homers in 67 AB's), and a bad August. However, in August, he only played in 14 games, and only had 48 AB's. AJ didn't see much playing time after mid-August, only seeing 38 AB's after August 17.
AJ received pretty consistent playing time before the All-Star break, and it resulted in 14 homers and an .870 OPS. But once he struggled in August, he was basically taken out of the lineup except for spot starts. I think that if AJ had consistent playing time, being the streaky hitter that he is, he could work through his streaks of hot and cold.
A lot of people may try to say AJ has lost it because of his strikeout total. Yes, his strikeout total was high in '09 - 72 K's, making an estimated season total 151 K's for AJ. However, strikeouts aren't necessarily a bad thing for sluggers. It's just an out. Two of the game's greatest sluggers, Ryan Howard and Adam Dunn, strike out even more than that every season - heck, Howard struck out 186 times last year, and 199 times in '07 and '08.
Another knock that AJ has on him is that he played in Texas last year, a hitter's park. While his home stats were better than his away stats, I'm not sure how much the park contributed to his numbers. He had 9 HR's at home and 8 on the road. Although the difference in OPS seems substantial - .858 OPS at home and a .705 mark on the road - that difference mainly comes from a difference of 6 more doubles and 7 more walks at home than on the road.
Another problem with AJ is that people think he has become too fat and too slow. I agree he should try Nutrisystem, but he still swiped 5 bags while only being caught once last year. Perhaps TP and the Braves could really work with him if we were to bring him back to keep him in shape.
If we did bring him back, I could picture Andruw Jones having a season that is good but not great, perhaps like the numbers he put up in 2001: .251/.312/.461 with 34 homers and 104 RBI's. If he played full time in 2010, I can see him putting up numbers like this: .235/.335/.465 with 35 homers and 100 RBI's, which is nothing to sneeze at! Just because his average may be low doesn't mean he couldn't be productive and valuable.
Does anyone else think it may be a good idea to bring back Andruw Jones in 2010? He would come cheap, probably around $500,000. Opening Day, I think we should start AJ in CF (only if his defense can be relied on), put McLouth in left and Diaz in right. IMO, Heyward will be up in June, giving AJ 2 months to prove himself. If AJ sucks terribly, we can get him out of there, put Heyward in right, and move McLouth back to center. However, if AJ bounces back, we could keep AJ in center, have McLouth in left, Heyward in right, and Diaz to make spot starts whenever needed. Is AJ worth the risk of having a hole in our lineup for 2 months?
Plus, if we sign AJ rather than an outfielder like Cameron, we save some money that we could spend on extending Laroche's stay, which IMO is the most important thing we need to do this offseason.
Now, I don't know about Andruw's defense. I saw that he was mainly a DH all year - he only played in the outfield 17 games last year. He didn't make any errors in OF, but has anyone seen him play? I have heard he is not very good anymore, but I'd like some confirmation. I still believe in AJ when it comes to taking good routes and getting great jumps on balls, but I don't know...
What does everyone think about reuniting the Jones brothers?
This FanPost does not express the views or opinions of Talking Chop.
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Well, I’ll give you this, you did your best to make a logical argument out of things. My only gripe is you put way too much emphasis on home runs and sort of ignored his lack of outfield play. Andruw needs to be in the AL right now, where he can DH when he’s in the lineup and maybe play his way back to being healthy. There’s no way he’s a better outfielder than McLouth right now. If every other possible option to fill a spot in our lineup failed, then I could see bringing Andruw back, but I’d probably rather give guys like Brandon Jones, Gregor Blanco, or Matt Young a chance before him.
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it: https://www.createspace.com/3407939
www.dropoutproductions.com
i wonder if Andruw’s knee problems are behind him and he is more mobile now… it made sense for him to DH last year, coming off the knee injury in 08….but maybe he’s better now..
still he is suited for a corner spot
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
If he’s still fat his knee is still gonna be a problem. Trust me, I know.
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it: https://www.createspace.com/3407939
www.dropoutproductions.com
But if he's willing to sign a minor league deal...
doubtful I know, but at minimal risk, why not. He does have the potential to be a right handed power bat, and maybe get hot for half a season until we’re ready to call up the kiddies.
Why would someone like AJ, who had decent numbers (and good power numbers) last year sign a minor league deal? He rejected a minor league offer from us last year, so I see no reason why one would expect him to accept one now after hitting 17 HRs.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Nov 23, 2009 10:11 AM EST up reply actions
Interesting thought:
AJ hit 17 HRs last season for roughly $500K…GA hit 13 for us with terrible D for about $2.5M.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Nov 23, 2009 10:13 AM EST up reply actions
in about half the number of AB’s too
"Im a fullonrapist, I do men, women, autistic kids, children, the elderly." -Charlie Kelly
true dat.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Nov 23, 2009 12:13 PM EST up reply actions
see the comment "doubtful"...
I understand it’s unlikely.
by Mr. Sanchez on Nov 23, 2009 10:50 AM EST up reply actions
Because he was still lousy and batted under .220?
I think it comes down to what other people would do. If someone offers him a major league contract, then he’ll take it. If only minor league contract with spring training invites are available, we probably have an advantage over other teams.
Even with that .220 batting average, he sported an OBP of .323 and an OPS of .782. He also worked 45 walks in just over 300 PAs.
He is becoming (or kinda always has been) an Adam Dunn type guy – all or nothing – and the batting average can somewhat be ignored, or at least, explained.
Having said that, I know he is no Adam Dunn (sporting an OBP near or above .400), but he will more than likely (read: I am 99% sure) get a contract worth much more than the league minimum and above a minor-league deal.
Some team, somewhere, would love 20+ HRs with an OBP of 320 or better and above average D from the corner OF spot…shouldn’t we be one of those teams?
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Nov 23, 2009 11:17 AM EST up reply actions
at what price?...
I also think teams will be wary of his time with the Dodgers, combined with his age and notorious laziness. Take in the last 4 or 5 years, and who knows what to expect with Andruw, both on the field and in what someone will be willing to pay him.
He had some HRs last year, but he still only played 82 games, hit .199 away from Arlington and who knows what he’s still capable of in the field. He hit 17 HRs on the year, but only 3 came after the All Star break. Meanwhile after the break he hit .185/.310/.333 (ops of .643). He was HORRIBLE in the second half so that a minor league deal may truly be the best he gets.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=jonesan01&year=2009&t=b#half
He sounds like the answer to the Platoon with LaRoche question!
:)
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Nov 23, 2009 2:38 PM EST up reply actions
As for the price, I would be fine with a contract similar to what GA got last year – in the $2-3M range. If nothing else, AJ would be a nice bat off the bench and a 4th OF.
This is all depending, of course, on how the budget shapes up – signing a 1B, dumping Lowe’s salary, etc.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Nov 23, 2009 2:40 PM EST up reply actions
Then we should do it. Hell, we took a bigger risk on a worse player in Anderson, why not with AJ?
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Nov 23, 2009 5:45 PM EST up reply actions
Not that I hate Andruw or anything
but because:
1. He played in Arlington (home/road splits were drastic)
2. He was under Rudy Jaramillo’s instruction
3. His good stats were almost all of it in the first half
I guess there is just reason to be concerned. I wouldn’t mind having him back, but I would’nt necessarily rely on him.
by Andy Braves Fan on Nov 24, 2009 9:55 AM EST up reply actions
in 141 home ABs, he hit 9 HRs. In 140 road ABs, he hit 8 HRs.
His average was much worse on the road, but that is about it. He had 6 more doubles at home, raising his SLG a bit higher than his road SLG, but his OBP drop can directly be attributed to his avg dropping (for some reason).
His plate discipline was relatively the same home and away. In 202 PAs at home, he worked 26 walks. In 129 PAs on the road, he worked 19 walks.
The only thing that was really different was his batting average…for some reason, he didn’t hit well on the road, but he still flashed the same power, so I don’t think hitting in Arlington really affected his overall numbers too much.
If he produces for a full season in the way he did this past year, he would project to have 34 HRs, a .220-ish average and close to 100 BBs…I’d take that any day over what we have had in LF for the past several years – ESPECIALLY at a $2-3M price tag.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Nov 24, 2009 1:23 PM EST up reply actions
And the chances he can play that full season...
are about as good as Anderson. He’s beat up, and while projecting his numbers to 162 sound nice, he only played 82 for a reason.
He was in a system with 5 legit OFers. That is the only reason.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Nov 24, 2009 1:59 PM EST up reply actions
interesting…his offensive talent was still good enough for them to at least DH him.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Nov 24, 2009 2:03 PM EST up reply actions
Dude
His home OPS was .858. Away, .705. That is a drastic split.
I want to believe that Andruw could do all that you are saying, but the numbers aren’t screaming “comeback player” to me.
Furthermore, the Braves have a 4th outfielder. His name is Matt Diaz (which isn’t any hate on Diaz either, FYI). The Braves otherwise have McClouth and ???? The Braves need an outfielder that can be relied on right now.
by Andy Braves Fan on Nov 24, 2009 1:48 PM EST up reply actions
Diaz in RF, Nate in CF and Andruw in LF. The OF you can count on is Diaz. AJ is a significant upgrade over FUGA, and Nate will be here (presumably healthy) for a whole season.
That is more than double the OF we started with last season.
Just shore up 1B with LaRoche, sign a reliver or two, and we should be set.
Expect a mediocre, but better than FUGA season from AJ (reasonable expectations, IMO) with much better D in the LF corner. Anything more than that would be bonus (which he has the great potential to actually achieve).
A full season of that OF coupled with LaRoche = much better offense for the Bravos – you know, the team that barely missed out on the playoffs with a putrid lineup?
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Nov 24, 2009 2:03 PM EST up reply actions
That OPS difference is just about the same as the difference in his average.
For some reason, he hit fewer base hits in Arlington than on the road. Typically, a hitter’s ballpark means that more HRs are hit there, or that there is some sort of monstrocity of an object in the field (Fenway). There is no such uniqueness about Arlington Stadium. AJ hit 9 HRs at home and 8 on the road, so the power was still there.
I wonder what it is that caused him to get fewer base hits?
I’m going to go check his BaBIP on the road vs at home…
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Nov 24, 2009 2:06 PM EST up reply actions
well, his BaBIP at home was .228 (Ridiculously low), but it was just a tad lower on the road at .213…so, that isn’t the answer…hmmm….I have no idea why he couldn’t hit on the road this past season.
It is strange though, because he only hit 1 more HR and 6 more doubles at home than on the road…maybe this is all a result of small sample sizes.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Nov 24, 2009 2:11 PM EST up reply actions
Correction to the stats:
I mixed up his H/A stats with his 1st/2nd half stats in the numbers of PAs he had. Ironically, he still had the exact same number of walks, but the PAs should be 168 at home and 163 on the road.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Nov 24, 2009 2:15 PM EST up reply actions
No matter how you put it
a .229 BA at home, .199 BA away, either way it doesn’t account for .150 points of OPS. His .507 home slugging vs. .411 away slugging makes a much bigger difference, which makes sense because Arlington is a bandbox.
I’m sorry, I really do want to agree, but the numbers just don’t tell that story.
by Andy Braves Fan on Nov 24, 2009 2:38 PM EST up reply actions
The difference
mainly comes from 6 doubles and 7 walks – the doubles significantly affected his SLG and the 7 walks affected his OBP.
You say to-mah-to, I say you're retarded.
by alligatorimpersonator on Nov 24, 2009 3:33 PM EST up reply actions
But the OPS truly isn’t that different – he had 1 more HR at home than on the road and 6 more doubles – like I said, it is too small of a sample size to really be taking an issue with.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Nov 24, 2009 4:08 PM EST up reply actions
How did that turn out with GA?...
so great, because we wasted money in LF last year, let’s make sure and do it again with a weak LF and piss poor bat in the 5 hole. Because then at least this year the guy we are wasting money on used to be good for us?
by Mr. Sanchez on Nov 24, 2009 12:24 PM EST up reply actions
OR, you could sign him based on his upside. If you go back and read what I wrote, I said he could be a serviceable 4th OF and a decent bat off the bench. I never once said that we need to sign AJ to hit cleanup for us and rely on him to carry us to the promised land.
It turned out bad with GA because he had a lower OBP than AJ and much much worse D in LF. AJ would be an above average LF. Just because his range in CF dropped doesn’t mean he can’t man a relatively simple corner OF spot.
But hey, if you would rather sign Troy Glaus for more money and more risk, be my guest.
I’ll take a $2M AJ over just about any free agent out there right now.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Nov 24, 2009 1:17 PM EST up reply actions
I got no clue what Glaus would cost...
and you know as well as I do, if we sign AJ, Bobby will not use him as a 4th OF and pinch hitter. He’ll be starting LF and cleanup.
And no one knows what kind of LF he would be. That’s not a bash against his defensive skills, but a question on how well he can still move. Personally, $2m on AJ would be a huge overspending, and likely 2-4x what anyone else offers.
He got 1/4 of that last season, and you can bet his contract will be worth more than that this season.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Nov 24, 2009 2:07 PM EST up reply actions
factor in Arlington, age, and his recent past...
as well as his second half, I just don’t see it. But then we’ll see over the next few months.
I love Andruw to death, but...
…I agree that there is no need to spend $2 million on him. While he hit 17 HR last year, he batted under .220. I doubt he gets any offers near that high and the Braves just have to match his other offers, not beat them, as he would rather play here. I would love for him to return to form, and he is young enough to return to form, but there is no point overspending on that small possibility.
His OBP was decent and his OPS was something like .780 – I don’t think a $2M contract is too far off the mark.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Nov 24, 2009 4:10 PM EST up reply actions
Apparently...
…it was 1.5 million less incentives off the mark.
Arlington didn’t really factor in his numbers. He hit as many HRs at home as on the road in equal ABs.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Nov 24, 2009 4:09 PM EST up reply actions
HR's
aren’t the only measure of power/hitting, though. That is why I do think that those extra doubles are significant despite the relatively small sample size.
by Andy Braves Fan on Nov 24, 2009 4:17 PM EST up reply actions
6…we are talking about 6 doubles here. Not 20. Not 11. 6.
I think Chipper hit 9 more doubles on the road this season. Should we be worried about his home/road splits? He also had nearly a 60 point drop in OPS.
AJ’s sample size is WAY too small to be worried about H/A splits.
What we COULD be concerned about is his cooler 2nd half…but then again, he only had about 1/2 of the ABs in the 2nd half compared to the 1st.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Nov 24, 2009 4:27 PM EST up reply actions
But
the reason AJ has more doubles at home than on the road doesn’t matter. Doubles are usually hit in the gap or down the line – the park would have little to do with that. Homers are the essentially the only thing a park would affect
You say to-mah-to, I say you're retarded.
by alligatorimpersonator on Nov 24, 2009 4:39 PM EST up reply actions
exactly. Unless you play in some weird place like Houston or Boston where there are unique features that create some defensive problems. But, Arlington is not like that at all.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Nov 24, 2009 4:54 PM EST up reply actions
thinking about how ugly Houston’s stadium is makes me cringe.
You say to-mah-to, I say you're retarded.
by alligatorimpersonator on Nov 24, 2009 5:10 PM EST up reply actions
Trust me, I know
LOL!
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Nov 23, 2009 10:10 AM EST up reply actions
No thanks.
He posted those numbers in limited capacity and in a notorious hitter’s park. In a more normal park, I imagine that already low-ish OBP dropping another few points to where he’s an out machine. His defense isn’t what it once was so he has nothing on that end to balance himself out as a useful player.
I wish the best for him, but I’ll pass.
pretty convincing argument, i’d love to AJ back in a braves uniform…but i just dont know if its worth the risk, especially this year since we have a team that can actually contend…but if he doesnt sign with anyone i think the braves should definately give him a spring training invite…and to what CB said above, i much much rather see AJ starting than gregor blanco, anyday..
"Im a fullonrapist, I do men, women, autistic kids, children, the elderly." -Charlie Kelly
no.
why does the michelin man come to mind?
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Nov 19, 2009 3:46 PM EST reply actions
I have always had a soft spot for Andruw...
…so I don’t take much convincing here. To add to your thoughts on Andruw, his lack of playing time after August came from a nagging injury which sapped his production and playing time. I watched a lot of his AB’s last year and he was more patient—-not swinging nearly as much at the low and away curve. That is why his walk numbers were up—-early in the season pitchers just kept throwing that and he racked up a bunch of walks. After his hot July, they stopped doing that so much. His bat speed is still down, however, as he wasn’t catching up to good fastballs like he used to be able to. He is still young enough to turn his career around, but I wonder at this point if anyone will give him the playing time to try. I doubt the Braves will even consider it, and I get the feeling that nobody will unless he drops a lot of weight—-he dropped some before last season, but he is still much bigger than he was during his heyday.
Ah,
I knew he wasn’t entirely healthy, but I was unaware of his nagging injury that limited his playing time in August. It also helps a lot to have your perspective since you’ve seen some of his AB’s, so now i know why his walk total was up, and why his production ultimately went down later in the season…
You say to-mah-to, I say you're retarded.
by alligatorimpersonator on Nov 19, 2009 4:33 PM EST reply actions
Yeah, I am in New Orleans...
…and we are considered in the Rangers’s home territory. (I have to pony up for Extra Innings for my Braves now; it is just wrong.) Andruw is a reclamation project and I am fairly certain that the Braves won’t sign him, but he is cheap right-handed power.
I'd like to see him back
I’m still a big fan of AJ he was great for us for so long, and just like i said last year, if we give him a minimal contract, or even just a invite to spring training? it’d be worth that risk, if we dont throw too much money at him we’re good, maybe a 500,000 contract with incentives based on performance and playing time can get him up to 1, or 1.5 mil
we offered him a minimal contract and an invite to spring training last year, and he declined…after hitting 17 HRs, I doubt he will be settling for an offer that he refused last year.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Nov 19, 2009 11:44 PM EST up reply actions
What's funny is
No matter what any team pays him to play this year, if there are any, he’s still going to make somewhere in the neighborhood of $3.5-4.5M if he does nothing at all, because the Dodgers broke up the second year of that absurd 2/$36M in to 4-5 easy payments of something a whole lot less.
No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.
AJ
His days are done in ATL. He was spoon fed pitching last year, giving him his best chances at being successful. I’d be suprised to see someone in the NL take a chance on him. If I knew ATL could get 30-35 HRs out of hime next year I still don’t know. He’s a 7 hitter at best, and I would be shocked if he ever hit over 240 again. He’s basically a lumberjack that pitchers have figured out.
haha
didn’t Pudge lose weight cuz he stopped using roids?
You say to-mah-to, I say you're retarded.
by alligatorimpersonator on Nov 24, 2009 3:35 PM EST up reply actions
The Sox just got him for $500K with incentives up to $1M…I am shocked he signed for that cheap and this early!
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Nov 25, 2009 3:40 PM EST reply actions
God
Andruw, Vizquel, Konerko, Pierzysnki, Kotsay, and Dye. The Sox are going to be awesome…in 1997.
If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.
I read a post on espn’s forum that said something like
“The team that the white-sox has now put together is guaranteed to win a championship in 2001”
It made me lol.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Nov 25, 2009 7:29 PM EST up reply actions

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