Braves 2009 Season in Review: Rafael Soriano

by gondeee on Nov 17, 2009 5:47 PM EST

Reviewing a reliever is not an easy task. There are plenty of ugly numbers that can jump out at you, but there are also some pretty numbers that can't be ignored; such is the case with Atlanta Braves closer Rafael Soriano. Raffy didn't start out the year as the closer, he was a co-closer with Mike Gonzalez, but he eventually won the job outright and became a big part of the team's turnaround.

First, we have to look and see if it's possible to ignore the ugly numbers. Soriano posted 1 win against 6 losses while converting 27 of 31 save attempts -- 4 blown saves. Those 6 losses versus just 4 blown saves tells us that he was also unsuccessful in tie games (3 of the BS resulted in losses, 3 were in tie games). In all we can attribute 6 losses directly to Soriano, but that's just 6 out of the 77 games he appeared in, of which he finished 52 of them.

Soriano had an 87% save percentage, while the Braves relief core (which included Soriano) had a paltry 63% save percentage. In converting saves, Soriano had a higher save percentage than Jose Valverde, Jonathan Broxton, Fancisco Rodriguez, and many others. Those 6 losses and 4 blown saves may look bad, but as far as late inning pitchers go Soriano was above average.

One of the knocks on the 2009 season of Soriano is that he didn't finish strong, and he didn't. While he took sole possession of the closer's role in July, saving 9 games, he also became a bit more unlucky starting that month. But it wasn't until the last two months of the year when the hits really caught up with him and his longball problems returned. His ERA progression can be seen below:

	April	May	June	July	August	Sept/Oct
ERA	0.90	1.54	1.20	3.97	4.50	5.17
Innings Pitched	10	11.2	15	11.1	12	15.2
Hits Allowed	3	8	9	7	11	15

This could be attributed to the low workload that Soriano had last year, and his body perhaps not being ready for the added strain of all the accumulated innings. The numbers are somewhat alarming and make me wonder if this poor trend will carry over into the following year. In none of his other full major league season can I find this regression throughout the year.

So there is Soriano, a little bit of good, a little big of not-so-good, but this is the trouble with relievers. Looking too deep into the numbers can make you go blind trying to find the why of what went wrong or what went right. Relievers' numbers often do not come with a big enough sample size to really extrapolate meaningful trends. The one trend of increasing ERA that I highlight above could simply be overuse -- Soriano threw more innings and appeared in more games that any other year of his career. Or it could be something else. A mental lapse here or there at the end of a mentally draining season.

The Braves should want to bring Soriano back. Despite his 6 losses, he stabilized the closer's role and gave us a closer as good as many of the marquee names out there.

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Comments

One thing everyone can agree with:

Soriano looks like a bad ass on the mound

by blitzerlover on Nov 17, 2009 5:59 PM EST reply actions

I disagree

Only kidding. Agreed. Actually, to me at least, he looked pretty indifferent.

by beeswax on Nov 17, 2009 7:22 PM EST up reply actions

I prefer Gonzo anyway, but I think he was bad-assier on the mound. Gonzo looked like he might pounce on you rather than throw a pitch.

by J-Freak on Nov 17, 2009 9:33 PM EST up reply actions

although that made me laugh I’m gonna have to disagree, Sori was more bad-ass.
My proof (can’t remember the day but) I remember for fact that there were NAHWAL points given out one day just for Sori’s staredown. Yeah, that badass

Gonzo’s swagger never merited NAHWAL points

(Yunel is still the Queen of Hearts)

by GoBravesNY on Nov 17, 2009 10:14 PM EST up reply actions

Gonzo’s ~~swagger~~ never merited NAHWAL points

swagga is the correct term

by blitzerlover on Nov 17, 2009 10:17 PM EST up reply actions

Gonzo actually toned down the Cobra dancing at the end of the season.

"Matt Diaz is a baseball player."-Joe Simpson

by 10-4 on Nov 18, 2009 8:19 AM EST up reply actions

I don’t think Soriano will be back.

by beeswax on Nov 17, 2009 7:23 PM EST reply actions

Neither do I

I dont think Soriano nor Gonzalez will be back especially with the Braves being an organization that doesnt really give out long term contracts to relievers and both of these guys will be looking for more than a 2 yr deal IMO.

by drumzalicious on Nov 17, 2009 7:29 PM EST up reply actions

Given they are both classed as A free agents, I wonder whether the Braves will go out on the limb with arbitration offers to both.

by fandave on Nov 17, 2009 9:54 PM EST reply actions

Both

I think they will offer both because neither one will be likely to accept a one year deal. The Braves will probably submit some rediculously low figures for both and get turned down. I will say that Gonzalez is the more likely of the two to accept eventhough Boras is his agent.

by JFP on Nov 17, 2009 10:10 PM EST up reply actions

they can’t submit a ridiculously low figure they can only accept a figure 20% lower than last year’s salary and even that is stupid.

You want to submit a bid that the player will accept, if he submits his own bid he will win if it goes to arb the player always wins ARB

so if we put in a bid fro about 4M that would be a healthy offer and wouldnt piss off Gonzo when/if he accepts and turns in his bid. You want to at least be able to make a case in front of the arbitrator so that theres a snowballs chance we win..if you submit a low ball offer you’ll never win and we’ll get screwed,

Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?

by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST

by Swo12bv on Nov 18, 2009 8:22 PM EST up reply actions

what about a situation in where we submit, he doesn’t like the offer and opts for FA? I mean, not all of these offers have to go before a hearing, right? Or are you saying, we should be prepared just in case it does?

"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."

by justincredubil02 on Nov 18, 2009 10:10 PM EST up reply actions

ya theres the case where he rejcts our offer and goes FA (which i refer to as whats going to happen) but to low ball him for the sole purpose of sending him to FA is misguided… you need to be prepared for the scenario where he submit his bid and wants to go to a hearing…if we low ball him we are certain to lose, if we offer a reasonable raise we at least have a snowball’s chance.

Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?

by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST

by Swo12bv on Nov 18, 2009 10:25 PM EST up reply actions

A chance at resigning him, or a chance that he walks and we get the Type A compensation. I would think that option 2 would be ideal.

"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."

by justincredubil02 on Nov 18, 2009 10:34 PM EST up reply actions

his contract last year was for 3.45M so assuming a adequate raise… 5M… if we sign him for 5m and 1 year… ill be pretty psyched… that would be an offer i could deal with and one we might actually win…but like i said in another thread ill eat my hat if he accepts arbitration… even with the nbr he submits it will be less than he could get on the open market and will be for one year opposed the minimum of two years he’d get in FA… theres no way he’d accept, but if he does accept arb that should be the neighborhod of our bid

Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?

by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST

by Swo12bv on Nov 19, 2009 12:10 AM EST up reply actions

I thought the offer, or ...

at least submitted to arb offer, was after arbitration was accepted. Once arbitration is accepted, free agency ends as I understand the process and the two sides are submitting one year deals with an arbitrator picking the #, so there would be no rejecting the offer and opting for FA. The offer comes after FA is over and both sides are bound to live out a year at one’s submitted salary or the other. Before that, free agency is free agency and your offers and open like everyone else. At least that’s how I understood the process, someone please correct me if I’m wrong.

by Mr. Sanchez on Nov 19, 2009 8:13 AM EST up reply actions

You’re absolutely right. Accepting arbitration negates free agency and the team’s offer in arbitration isn’t known until after the player accepts arbitration.

I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it: https://www.createspace.com/3407939
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by cbwilk on Nov 19, 2009 11:23 AM EST up reply actions

That is correct.

We have to offer arbitration by December 1st, and the free agents must accept or reject by December 7th. If accepted, both player and club submit a number and the arbitrator must choose between the two—-he cannot do a compromise. The player and club however can sign any deal they want until the arbitrator makes a decision. If LaRoche, Soriano, or Gonzalez want a multi-year deal, they have to reject the arbitration offer if we offer it to them.

by cavebird on Nov 19, 2009 12:57 PM EST up reply actions

then i am sorely mistaken….the fact remains lowballing him in arb gets us nowhere

Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?

by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST

by Swo12bv on Nov 19, 2009 1:47 PM EST up reply actions

Hey gondeee

I’m loving these captions more and more each day

(Yunel is still the Queen of Hearts)

by GoBravesNY on Nov 17, 2009 10:05 PM EST reply actions

I'm not sure on bringing Soriano back...

for one is the injury question. Second is the cost. If you knew he’d be healthy, and at a reasonable price, of course you want him back. He’s untouchable when he’s on. But that injury question is too much for me when tied to that likely price tag. I wouldn’t mind him accepting arbitration in a one year risk, but not to a big money long term deal.

by Mr. Sanchez on Nov 17, 2009 10:46 PM EST reply actions

In Review

Remember the recent years of having quality starters and an inconsistent bullpen? I am really concerned and certainly don’t want a repeat fiasco like that… Nailing down a closer, sooner rather than later, is probably more important than getting a quality RBI bat added to our lineup. I do not like having both these issues at once. Our history has not been that good in regards to finding quality closers. Can we do both?

by Gjmoody on Nov 18, 2009 8:25 AM EST via mobile reply actions

I think we need quality bullpen arms, not necessarily a proven closer...

…good closers come out of nowhere plenty often enough—-look at Bailey and Franklin just last year. But with Gonzo and Soriano likely leaving, we do need more quality bullpen arms. Remember that sometimes “proven” closers like Kolb actually are crappy. If you get a bunch of live arms, one can emerge as a closer, ala Soriano.

Fortunately, quality bullpen arms are much cheaper than proven closers. That would allow us to get the bullpen we need and sign a 1B and maye an OF. With a better lineup and our rotation, maybe we can win more games without save situations.

As unsexy as it is, I think the most prudent course this off-season may well be to move Lowe as a salary dump, sign LaRoche or a comparable 1B (someone suggested Delgado, and while I didn’t like the idea at the time, it has grown on me), sign Mike Cameron, and sign a few live bullpen arms (possible free agents include: Dotel, Betancort (if not offered arb.), Calero, Hawkins, Putz (if cheap enough), and Benoit). That’s it. Not sexy, but it would fill our needs and comfortably fit our salary level, even leaving enough room to pick up an expensive player at the deadline to fill any hole arising from injury or otherwise.

by cavebird on Nov 18, 2009 9:08 AM EST up reply actions

well said, i think the closer role is one of the most overrated ideas in baseball

"Im a fullonrapist, I do men, women, autistic kids, children, the elderly." -Charlie Kelly

by Hcgadawgs on Nov 18, 2009 11:21 AM EST up reply actions

Something we can agree upon!

by cavebird on Nov 18, 2009 3:18 PM EST up reply actions

I want Soriano back as much as the next person

But I guarantee Wren is nervous about signing him to anything more than a 1-yr extension with all the injuries Rafael has endured throughout his career.

by SmithnCompany on Nov 18, 2009 10:24 PM EST reply actions