Braves 2010 CHONE Predictions

And Go! on the Heyward line

2 months ago GoBravesNY 9 comments 0 recs |

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17 Hrs for Brooksy? That would be fine with me.

MATT DIAZ IS THE F**K*NG MAN.
They made me change my signature...

by nick9314 on Nov 15, 2009 9:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Dang, it is predicting the EXACT same year for Chipper as this year, and a monster bounce-back year from KJ…and 17 HR for Brooks Conrad??? Seriously? I think that pretty much discredits this thing.

"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."

by justincredubil02 on Nov 15, 2009 9:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

also, the 9 HR from Heyward…really? Brooks Conrad is going to double up Heyward in HRs???

"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."

by justincredubil02 on Nov 15, 2009 9:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

like you said

it’s crazy to think Conrad is gonna hit 17Hrs, which would be tied for 3rd on our whole team. There’s a reason he’s a career AAAA player. He went 0-17 or something like that in September.

"Are you tryin to say Jesus Christ can't hit a curveball?"

by mvhsbball on Nov 15, 2009 10:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

So it sounds like we should deal Yunel, cause Brooks Conrad is gonna hit 17 Hrs. They do realize that they’re saying a bench/utility player is gonna hit more HRs than Yunel, Prado, KJ, Diaz and Heyward, right?

And David Ross is gonna hit 11 HRs? Ha, ya, okay. He never gets to PH since he’s our only backup catcher. And unless he hits a HR in every other game he plays, i don’t really see how this is possible.

These predictions are stupid.

"Are you tryin to say Jesus Christ can't hit a curveball?"

by mvhsbball on Nov 15, 2009 9:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I also agree these are crap

look at Heyward 26 BB to 53 SO, um i thought i’ve been getting for the past year that its the other way but alright
Wes Timmons to play in 105 games?!?
Chipper to have almost the exact same line?!?
Retarded stuff all over the place. made me puke

(Yunel is still the Queen of Hearts)

by GoBravesNY on Nov 15, 2009 10:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

this is stupid. brooks conrad 17 homeruns? how high are you?

by Lemke4790 on Nov 16, 2009 9:59 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Our catcher plays the most games? We’re screwed if this comes to fruition.

"Matt Diaz is a baseball player."-Joe Simpson

by 10-4 on Nov 16, 2009 10:32 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Slow down...

I am not really familiar with these projections…but I have read some of the Bill James projections in the past. He is very clear about things…
1) They are not meant to be a crystal ball….but a tool.
2) You can’t predict injuries…
3) Can’t be certain of ABs…due to roster changes, injuries, defense etc. He typically gives someone the benefit of the doubt and gives them more ABs then they will likely get in order to get a better idea of production (ie the larger the sample size the more likely the numbers are to be accurate).

He goes on to say that based on PREVIOUS production, trends, player comparisons, equiv stats etc….that a player would produce around that stat line IF given that many ABs.

In the case of Brooks Conrad it had him hitting 17 hrs in around 400 ABs….right? Did you also see it had him hitting .230 with an OBP around .320? If Conrad got 400 ABs do you really think he couldn’t hit 17hrs? I don’t think that is that far off. Now if he gets 400 abs then the team is in trouble. But they aren’t saying he is going to get 400 ABs.
Keep in mind that younger players are going to have more variation to their projections because there isn’t as much of a track record to base it on. However, with Veterans like Chipper you can see his norms, trends, injury history etc….therefore his projection will be closer to his recent career norms.

I haven’t done the math but if you figure that the average slot in the order gets 3.4 ABs a game…and there are 162 games….so there should be around 5000 ABs per team…per year right. Has anyone gone back and looked to see if the ABs even look close?

by calbers on Nov 17, 2009 12:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs