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Talking Chop Round Table: Braves Left-Handed Starters

As part of season reviews for major league players and top prospect rankings for minor league players, we here at Talking Chop thought it would be a fun idea to get all of our bloggers together with the help of Google Docs and debate the various aspects of each position in the Braves organization.

The participants are, yours truly (gondeee, indicated by MG), yondaime4 (indicated by MF), royhobbs (indicated by DH), and cbwilk (indicated by CBW).

The round table for left-handed starters in the Braves organization is after the jump.

Star-divide

MG:  So many different things being written and said about Mike Minor as far as ceiling goes. Most prospect guys think of him as a #3 at best, but the Braves see him as a possible Cole Hamels type pitcher. I guess I need to see more of him at higher levels, but I'll probably fall somewhere in the middle of those assessments.
MF: I don't know what to think about Minor to be honest. I've heard such varied opinions on him thus far its hard to get a good read on him and it probably won't be any easier until he moves up the ladder and pitches against some people who are closer to his talent level. Obviously he has done well in Arizona, but that doesn't really mean a whole lot. I have heard his fastball gets up to 94 (probably sits somewhere in the low 90s) but that is better than what most reports say about him. I mean if we are talking about a guy who's floor is a number 5 starter in the majors then I'll take that, because all things given, thats still pretty good value, even if he wasn't the best guy we could have had at the time.
CBW: I've never understood the hate for this draft pick. Of the guys in the draft not named Strasburg, nobody seemed like more of a lock to become a contributing Major Leaguer than Minor. And he's a lefty! Obviously, he should have pitched well for Rome given his experience level, but I'm glad he dominated in his time there, because anything less would have been more fodder for the people who seem to be against him. I just want to see what the guy does. I haven't seen him, so I can't even make a guess about what he'll end up being. If he's a number 3, that's great, there's nothing wrong with that, especially since he seems like he could be ready for the Majors by sometime in 2011. At the end of the day, nothing is a sure thing in the draft, so a few years from now I'd rather be the ones with a Major League number 3 than the ones who drafted the high school guy who supposedly could have been amazing but ended up being terrible because gauging how high school players are going to turn out is just about impossible.

MG:  There was a lot of disagreement about who should come after Minor. I think it should be DeVall. I know he's injured and out for a year, but he's still got that ceiling that's better than most of the other guys on this list.
MF: I like Brett too, but I made a point not to rank anyone who was injured for most of the season this year. Too many guys have just fallen off the face of the planet recently to injury stuff (Steven Evarts anyone?). If he comes back next year and has a solid year, then yes I will probably have him second, barring any explosions from other prospects. I think the guy that could be the best of this group is Tyler Stovall. His stuff was great in the Appy league but his control just wasn't there. He has good stuff and already a plus curveball and will be 20 next season. Tons of potential there, he just needs to reign it in a little.
CBW: I think if DeVall had pitched a full year with the kind of numbers he was putting up, I might have put him ahead of Osuna and Ortegano, but he was only in 10 games, so it was hard to give him that. I didn't really factor the injury in when I made my list, because at the time the whole Tommy John thing was kind of a rumor. But, since he's going to miss all of 2010, unless there's a real dropoff in the left handed talent in the system, I'd have a hard tim putting him on this list this time next year. What sucks even more is that if he had had the surgery back in June or July, then you'd be pretty certain he'd be fully healed by 2011, but since he just had it, you're going to have to expect 2011 to be sort of a rehab year, so you really won't be able to judge him fully until you see what he does in 2012. As for Stovall, I'm really not sure what to make of him yet. He was the first guy we picked in 08, but he was outpitched in the GCL by the two guys picked after him, DeVall and Zeke Spruill. Then, in 09, those guys go to Rome and both pitch well, but Stovall ends up having to wait to play with Danville. And while he did pretty well, he's shown a tendancy to walk a ton of batters, giving up 8.8 walks per 9 inning this year. His strikeouts and walks are almost neck and neck; he's getting a lot of both, but that's just an odd sign. But, on the other side, he's going to be 20 years old in 2010 playing for Rome, which is the age you want a guy to be there, and he's been touted as having all the talent in the world. So while I still want to see more out of him, you have to think he's better than he's shown.

MG:  Edgar Osuna and Jose Ortegano seem to be interchangeable to me. I do like Osuna better, but I think their ceiling is that of a LOOGY.
CBW: For me the big difference is that Ortegano has better stuff but Osuna knows how to pitch better, and I think he's consistently shown that, which is why I ranked him ahead of Ortegano. I've been waiting for these two to break out for a few years, ususally ranking them a lot higher on my own lists than other people have, and 2009 was a huge year for both of them. They both pitched a lot more innings than they had in the past (Osuna had 25 more than his previous high, Ortegano had almost 30 more) and they were  both dramatically better at the higher level. They've made some strides over the years, but I got to see them both pitch three times this year, from Spring Training to almost the end of the season, and the difference just between where they started this year and where they finished is huge. These two are getting better and I think a major factor is their friendship and competition. They feed off of each other and want to get better. Ortegano has learned more about pitching because of Osuna, and Osuna has added a little nastiness to his finess repitoire because of Ortegano. I think at the absolute worst these guys become dynamite LOOGYs, but if they keep progressing, and there's no reason to think they won't, there's no reason they can't become middle to back of the rotation starters.


MG:  I probably have more remaining love for Cole Rohrbough than either of you guys. I know he was lost last year, but he seemed lost mentally, while his stuff was still there. I think if he can get his head together he will bounce back nicely.
MF: If anyone does  have more raw potential from the left side of the rubber than Tyler Stovall, its Cole. You are right about his stuff still being pretty solid, but he just imploded too often for my tastes. He always had one really bad inning and I know we have read the 'reports' about his mental composure and frankly that scares me more than mechanical issues. I'll take a wait and see approach with him and if he comes out of the gate fast next year I won't be afraid to move him back up the list quickly.
CBW: I don't know if I was right to not even put him on my list, but it made sense at the time. I just can't get over the fact that he was already a little too old for the level, and that he had already had success at the level, and he just spent most of the year getting hammered. And making things even more frustrating is that he started out well, pitching great in his first 5 games. I know he has talent, I've seen it, but the guy just doesn't pitch like a top prospect. Yes, he was outstanding in 2007, but in 08 he was just kind of Ok, even though he spent most of the year with Rome where he was a year older than you really want a prospect to be, and this year he was just bad. I hate to talk about the personal frustrations that he had, but they did exist, and they did affect his year. It'd be unfortunate to think that this might be what derails him, but he wouldn't be the first guy with talent who couldn't hack it because he couldn't handle the lifestyle.


MG:  Matt, why this extra love for Scott Diamond (ranking him 2nd on your LHSP list), and no love for Todd Redmond (unranked on RHSP list)? I like Redmond a lot better than I like Diamond.
MF: Well I have to be honest I didn't even look at Redmond because of how bad the first part of his season was, though on a look now he did improve down the stretch. The big thing for me with Diamond is he has always had a very heavy fastball that generates a ton of groundballs. He also struck out 7.4 batters p/9 on the season and got better and better as the season went on. He also played most of the season at age 22. He isn't a classic prospect but he is a soft tossing lefty that more than held his own at AA this season.
CBW: This wasn't directed toward me, but whatever, I'm jumping in anyway. First, I wouldn't rate Redmond ahead of Diamond; he's two years older and only one year ahead in the system and, whether it's fair or not, Diamond is a lefty, which is just more valuable, especially since both of them have average stuff. I didn't have him as high as Matt (in fact I'm not sure now why I had him behind Brett Oberholtzer), but I love the guy. He's a smart pitcher who doesn't try to outplay his limitations and unlike some college guys, he's moved up fast and been able play at age appropriate levels to merit consideration as a top prospect. I think his mental ability is going to be what keeps him successful.

MG:  With a full roster of major league starters and Mike Minor in the wings, where does this leave Jo-Jo Reyes? Is he prime trade bait? Does anyone still believe that he can be an effective "major league" pitcher?
MF: I don't. At least not with the Braves.
CBW: I think he can still be a good Major Leaguer. He's only going to be 25 next season and while he's been pretty bad for Atlanta, if you look at his AAA time, it's basically one season, 28 starts, 141 innings, with a 9-3 record, a 2.23 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, 7.9 hits per 9 innings, 3.3 walks per 9 innings, and 7 strikeouts per 9 innings, and about half of that came this season. That's not a guy who can't pitch. More than anything, the times that I've watched JoJo pitch for Atlanta the problem has been that Bobby Cox hasn't let him work himself out of anything. He'd get in trouble in the 3rd or 4th inning and Bobby would pull him, so if he had given up any runs or if the guy who relieved him gave up some runs, his numbers would look awful. If you never learn how to pitch out of a jam, you're never going to e able to. I don't think he's trade bait, because it's hard to get much for a guy who didn't pitch well in the Majors and hasn't in his 3 shots at it, but I do think he needs a change of scenery.

CBW: We each had at least one guy that we didn't vote for on our personal lists who ended up on the final lists, but while we all gave Andy Otero a vote, he actually ended up just missing the list. So let's talk about him for a second; I know it was only the DSL, but he was 17 with a 0.84 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and struck out 13.1 per 9 innings. Pretty damn good.
MF: For all the flack I caught during the year for not including the DSL scores in the recaps.  I still was keeping an eye on it. You can't ignore what Otero was doing there. I am still taking a wait and see approach with him because at this point does anyone know what this kid has other than age or a fastball (maybe)? So definitely an interesting prospect, but lets see if he can keep it up next year.

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good stuff...

we’ve got some good young arms, and maybe a few to deal in the offseason. The Braves have a history of seeming to sell high on young arms.

by Mr. Sanchez on Nov 15, 2009 9:19 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

The recurrent theme here and in other recent discussions (e.g., last week’s AJC article and ensuing Fanshot on Minor) is the mental thing.

However many years ago, the Braves had a sports psychologist on board, Jack somebody, who seemed to really have a positive influence and helped bolster up some of our pitchers. Perhaps a kid like Cole Rohrbough with a lot of native talent, but who may be insecure, anxiety ridden, lacking in self-confidence or over-thinking his performance, needs to be supported and nurtured along in different ways than the typical young player.

by fandave on Nov 15, 2009 9:23 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Good call on Otero

http://www.capitolavenueclub.com/

by PWHjort on Nov 15, 2009 10:13 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

You folks sure...

seem to really know about these young arms.Having said that, it is such a hit or miss on most young pitchers. I am interested in Reyes, and think CBW’s comments were very fair. This weekend I caught the Ramon Martinez gem against the Braves (18 ks),and he was opposed by a 23-24 year old lefty by the name of Glavine(Reyes is about a year older).Tommy was getting banged around pretty good, but Cox should his patience to a point. That was his hallmark for the young kids. There were no expectations for the Braves back then to win. Now there are.We need a lefty in this rotation. In my view it will help the rest of the staff. I would hate to give up on this kid just yet.His stuff is good, but command of k zone is questionable. His confidence needs a lift and CBW is right to point out that he needs to learn to get out of jams more gracefully than he has. I would have no problems if the Braves could effectively trade KK and Lowe during the off season and install Jo Jo in the 5 slot this year.It has been proven that a team can win without a great number 5 in the rotation. The upside is we develope a real good lefty starter.

by mikie baseball on Nov 16, 2009 8:55 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Jojo has been the #5 a couple times...

he’s always failed there. Move him on and see what we can get back, be it a bench player, a low level prospect, a middle reliever or whatever.

by Mr. Sanchez on Nov 16, 2009 9:33 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Three stints at it...

yes, for a total of less than 30 starts and 190 innings. I think Glavine threw that in his first full year. The point is patience,developement and expectations. Three years ago there was at least some excitement for his potential.Are you that sure he is worth that little?I am not in that camp.Cox, who has long been an exceptional talent evaluator, thought Jo Jo was close earlier this year.

by mikie baseball on Nov 16, 2009 9:53 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Where is the original report that Brett DeVall had Tommy John?

Bill Ballew reported a few days ago that he only had arthroscopic surgery and he should be ready by spring training.

by Travisio on Nov 18, 2009 8:36 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

there's never been an official report...

it’s been pieced together from reports in the media, mostly from notebooks and snippets. And it never appeared to be confirmed, just the line like “he was expected to undergo the surgery in the next few weeks” back in August or September. Wanna say it was from a snippet in the Rome paper.

by Mr. Sanchez on Nov 19, 2009 8:06 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Bill Ballew, contributing for Baseball America had this to say...

“• Lefthander Brett DeVall, the Braves’ first pick in the 2008 draft, had an arthroscopic procedure on his elbow but should be ready for spring training. DeVall has struggled with discomfort in his forearm and elbow since signing with Atlanta.”

This was published on 11/16/09 but could have been written well before to meet BA’s deadlines. Can anyone find anything to refute this?

by Travisio on Nov 19, 2009 7:12 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

Great find Travisio,....

and would be great news if true.

by Mr. Sanchez on Nov 20, 2009 8:52 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs


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