Any merit to the Jurrjens trade rumors?
by StickRat on Nov 1, 2009 4:10 PM EST
130 comments
I read a rumor the other day that the Braves may look to trade Jair Jurrjens for a bat. Any chance this actually happens? At 23, Jurrjens is one of the best young pitchers in basebal, and is not yet arbitration eligible. I don't have the link to the actual rumor, though the one justification given in the snippet I saw was that he is a Scott Boras client. I'm not sure why that is a factor for a non-arbitration elibible player.
So, two questions for Braves fans: 1) Is it realistic to think the Braves would trade Jurrjens? 2) Any interest in Luke Scott and a prospect package in exchange for him?
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1. No
2. No
Here are Pujols's stats: 1.000/1.000/4.000/5.000. That's right. He is batting a thousand, with a thousand OBP (naturally), and every hit has been a home run, and thus his OPS is a perfect 5.000.
by TradeAndruw on Nov 1, 2009 4:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
absolutely…. we may listen to them but i can’t see wren trading him. look we are mike minor hitting his potential away from 3 top pitchers under 25 and i can’t see them passing that up knowing what a trio of glavine, maddox and smoltz did for them.
by JKowalek on Nov 8, 2009 1:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
1. Speculatively, yes, there could be.
2. Adam Jones?
by BravesWin on Nov 1, 2009 4:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
No
HELL NO
MATT DIAZ IS THE F**K*NG MAN.
They made me change my signature...
by nick9314 on Nov 1, 2009 4:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Some of the rumors
Might have even started here. gondeee made a post about the possibility a while ago.
It’s not impossible to think anyone is untradeable. Jurrjens is certainly one of the finest young arms currently, and he’s not arbitration eligible until 2011, which is definitely appealing for cost-conscious teams. With the sheer amount of dollars that allocated currently to Lowe, Kawakami, and the possible extending of Tim Hudson, it’s not out of the realm for the Braves brass to consider trading Jurrjens if other salary-shedding ways can’t come to fruition.
No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.
by royhobbs on Nov 1, 2009 4:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Yea
I think that’s where he may have gotten it from.Jurrjens has done his job and teams asked about him during his rookie season and the Braves said he was untouchable.With him being this good of a pitcher even though clubs had film on him and had made adjustments to hit him better and yet he still had this kind of success I would say he isn’t going anywhere.If Wren trades Jurrjens then he needs to be traded out of Atlanta.If the Braves had scored more runs for him he possilbly could have won alot more games.
by BravesMania on Nov 1, 2009 4:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
How is Jair shedding salary?...
We’ve got three other solid starters, assuming it’s no Hudson or else you wouldn’t resign him. Jurrjens is still cheap, much cheaper than KK, JV, and DL. Someone will make an acceptable offer for one of those 3.
by Mr. Sanchez on Nov 1, 2009 4:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Jair isn't
More in the case of trying to unload starting pitching for something in return, and being incapable of shedding Lowe, Kawakami or Vazquez instead, resorting to unloading Jair for something good.
No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.
by royhobbs on Nov 1, 2009 7:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I’m sure the Braves would listen to offers for him but they would have to be blown away to trade him. It would have to be a young controllable power hitter.
by jack dein on Nov 1, 2009 4:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Actually.
I’d be down for trading Jurrjens, but I’d require an equivalent hitter in return, not a package of any kind…
"A player who conjugates a verb in the first person singular cannot be part of the squad, he has to conjugate the verb in the first person plural. We. We want to conquer. We are going to conquer. Using the word 'I' when you're in a group makes things complicated." ~ Wanderley Luxemburgo, 1999
by ejruiz on Nov 1, 2009 4:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Jurrjens is not getting traded unless a star hitter is on the way to atlanta, so most likely not. I’d be very interested in putting a trade together for Luke Scott, he doesn’t seem to have a spot in Baltimore’s big picture plans and he and matt diaz would combine to give us dominant production in LF. Scott mashes against righties and Diaz kills lefties, plus both play above average defense in LF. Diaz/Scott, McLouth, and Heyward would give us a very good OF with Schafer on his way in 2011 (replacing McLouth in this scenario)
by McCann's the Man on Nov 1, 2009 5:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
LOL
Luke Scott…that’s cute. Is the prospect going to be a 21 year old Cal Ripken Jr.?
"Are you tryin to say Jesus Christ can't hit a curveball?"
by mvhsbball on Nov 1, 2009 5:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Waring looks like a real solid prospect, but I have 2 concerns: He has real nice numbers, but he’s almost 24 and in AA ball. My other concern is that we already have Freddie Freeman at 1B in the minors. He’s projected to be our 1B of the future. Not to mention he’s only 20 and at the same level as Waring. I know you can never have too much depth, but for a pitcher like Jurrjens, I’d probably want a better everyday player instead of Scott and a solid prospect.
Can Waring play any other positions? If he could play 3rd, I would definately be interested in him as a replacement for Chipper in a few years.
"Are you tryin to say Jesus Christ can't hit a curveball?"
by mvhsbball on Nov 1, 2009 5:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Waring at 3B?
That’s the million dollar question regarding Waring. He split time between first and third this year fairly evenly.
by StickRat on Nov 1, 2009 6:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Why it won't happen
First, it is possible the Braves would consider trading Jurrjens. In my eyes, at least, he would bring back the most in return due to age, performance and number of cost controlled years left.
The reason I say it won’t happen is the same reason why I think the Braves would consider it. We would be asking for that particular teams best, youngest most cost controlled player. In the case of Baltimore that would be Nick Markakis and as much as I dislike Angelos, he ain’t no dummy. Adam Jones could also be considered but the O’s would have to add to him and, again, I don’t see it happening.
You aren’t the czar of typographic emphasis
by scstrato on Nov 1, 2009 6:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Thats the same thing I was thinking. Unless they put their best prospect in the deal with Luke Scott theres no way we do that deal. Scott is a platoon player.
by jack dein on Nov 1, 2009 6:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
he meant a separate trade for scott not including jurrjens. Is that why everybody’s been ripping on scott, he’s actually a pretty good ballplayer
by McCann's the Man on Nov 1, 2009 7:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
naw
its not a rumor, just speculation no facts to it
by bravesfan1047 on Nov 1, 2009 6:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Alright guys
Nick Markakis for Jair Jurrjens. Who hangs up first?
"Are you tryin to say Jesus Christ can't hit a curveball?"
by mvhsbball on Nov 1, 2009 6:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Braves.
Kemp for Jurrjens. Who hangs up first?
"Four of us wolves, running around the desert together in Las Vegas, looking for strippers and cocaine..."
by jeg on Nov 1, 2009 10:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Dodgers. Kemp is probably the best CF in baseball.
"Are you tryin to say Jesus Christ can't hit a curveball?"
by mvhsbball on Nov 1, 2009 10:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Grady Sizemore, Curtis Granderson, Josh Hamilton, Carlos Beltran, Torii Hunter, Jason Werth and Shane Victorino,.
Who are the seven guys I would have in CF over Matt Kemp?
You aren’t the czar of typographic emphasis
by scstrato on Nov 1, 2009 11:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Granderson has one superstar season and two relatively average ones, Hamilton can’t stay healthy and isn’t much of a defender in CF, Beltran is better right now but he’s getting up there in age, Hunter isn’t Kemp’s equal defensively, and Victorino just no. Werth doesn’t even play CF. Sizemore and Beltran are the only two that are better but I’d take Kemp over Beltran on the basis of age/health. That leaves grady
by McCann's the Man on Nov 1, 2009 11:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Really?
Sizemore, yeah, he’s in the discussion.
Granderson has power, but his OBP sucks and strikes out too much.
Josh Hamilton? Are you serious? He played RF all of 2008 and was banged up all year long. He didnt do anything in 2009.
Beltran used to be a phenomenal CF, but he’s getting old and the injuries are starting to catch up to him.
Torii Hunter, who is one of my favorite players in baseball, had a great 2009, but is also getting up there in age. His power numbers are also starting to decline.
Jason Werth plays RF…
Shane Victorino isn’t even close to Matt Kemp. If you’d rather have Victorino over Kemp, I gotta worry about you a little bit.
So outside of Sizemore and maybe Granderson and Beltran, Matt Kemp is arguably the best CF in baseball.
"Are you tryin to say Jesus Christ can't hit a curveball?"
by mvhsbball on Nov 1, 2009 11:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Don't get your panties in a bunch
I said it was the 7 guys I would have in CF over Kemp, not 7 better CF’s. But since you responded I’ll try and defend myself a bit:
Sizemore – WAR’s of 5.3, 7.5, 5.8, and 6.3 (i’m excluding this year due to his injury). Kemp has yet to put up a year better than Sizemore’s lowest WAR. I don’t really see a discussion here. At least not for a year or two.
Granderson – OBP does suck, except against righties. He does strike out too much and he doesn’t have anywhere near the potential of Kemp. But he has a history that is fairly consistent so I know what i’m going to get out of him. That’s the ONLY reason I would have him over Kemp
Hamilton – Fair argument on your part but I just can’t put aside what he did in 2008. My take is if I can get 80% of a season from Hamilton’s 2008 I’d take that over Kemp’s full 2009.
Beltran and Hunter – injuries and age are very big concerns with these two, but they’re both still putting up numbers and both had better numbers than Kemp did this year. Whether Kemp’s defense is better than either of them is subjective and cannot be proven (let’s not go there). So if I’m considering who I want for next year I pick one of Beltran or Hunter. If i’m asked about the next two or three years I probably have to go with Kemp.
Werth – you are right, he does play RF. He also plays CF (12 games this year, 80+ for his career) which means he can play the position. At this point in their careers Werth is the superior offensive player and, though I’d rather chew nails than quote def metrics, he appears to be the superior defender in CF as well.
Victorino – No he’s not as good as Kemp. But if I had a team Victorino would probably be my CF. His OBP is good enough to lead off and I like his XBH numbers. This one is more personal preference than it is a wise decision but hey, i’m only human.
So yes, Kemp is very good and he has the potential to be great, but c’mon. Saying Kemp is the best CF in baseball not including Sizemore is like saying Chris Coughlan had the best batting average in baseball …. not counting the top 10 hitters of course.
You aren’t the czar of typographic emphasis
by scstrato on Nov 2, 2009 12:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
In Kemp’s defense, he was hitting 7th and 8th for a lot of the first half
by acie4mvp on Nov 2, 2009 12:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Of those 7 guys I would take Kemp over all of them.
Sizemore is a above average player but the way he plays CF you have to expect that he will have injuries, plus he’s never hit for a high average but he does draw quite a few walks.
Granderson is to inconsistent for me. His HR totals went up this year but everything else went down. He lost 3 doubles and 5 triples from 08 to 09, plus he only hit .249 this year.
Hamilton will never be a regular CF. He’s solid player but who knows if he’ll ever stay healthy for a full season again. Plus he hasn’t exactly taken care of his body over the years.
Beltran is still a very good player but he’ll turn 33 early in the 2010 season and CF is a demanding position.
The same argument goes for Hunter who turns 35 next year. He’s a solid player but you can’t expect more than 140 games out of him at this point.
Victorino is a good player, but if your looking for someone with power you should look somewhere else.
Kemp will turn 26 late next year. He continues to improve from year to year. His HR’s went from 18 in 08 to 26 this year. He had 6 more walks and 14 fewer K’s in 09 then 08. His 08 numbers .290/.340/.459, his 09 numbers .297/.352/.490. Plus the fact that Kemp is the youngest of the group.
by jack dein on Nov 2, 2009 12:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
What Jack Dein said. I was gonna post something like this, but I’ll be on my iPhone the next few days and that wouldve taken forever.
I think Sizemore and Kemp are pretty equal in terms of overall talent and ability. However, I can’t remember the last time I saw Sizemore play. Maybe it’s cause I’m an NL guy, but i’d definately take Kemp over Sizemore and the other 6 guys mentioned.
"Are you tryin to say Jesus Christ can't hit a curveball?"
by mvhsbball on Nov 2, 2009 1:21 AM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Agree with most of what you said except dissing on Sizemore, the guy simply put is number one at the position. Nobody can match his power/speed/obp combination
by McCann's the Man on Nov 2, 2009 7:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I’m not really dissing on him he’s a very good player. But he plays CF like Andruw Jones and Jim Edmonds so you have to expect that he will have some injury problems. He is only a .275 career hitter but his .367 OBP is very good. He’s only 27 in the next 3 years he will start to decline and become more injury prone.
by jack dein on Nov 2, 2009 8:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
27-30 isn’t the period of decline, those are the best years
by McCann's the Man on Nov 2, 2009 8:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Your missing the point. Diving and running into walls in CF takes its toll on a players body. Just look at Andruw.
by jack dein on Nov 2, 2009 8:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
andruw’s decline was bc he just let himself go, put on quite a bit of weight
by McCann's the Man on Nov 3, 2009 8:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
In all fairness
it was probably a bit of both with various other factors. You have to remember, Jones was only 19 when he was called up. He had spent most of his career manning a pretty spacious center field, and doing his job rather aggressively. My the time he hit 30, when he started to decline, he had already been in the league for a while. Add on the weight…
by Andy Braves Fan on Nov 3, 2009 9:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Jacoby Ellsbury?...
although if those two are at the top, I think CF has taken a bit of a decline since guys like Griffey in the 90s.
by Mr. Sanchez on Nov 2, 2009 9:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Apples and Oranges
For our purposes, Kemp is the better option because he has power (and is still well-rounded across the board). Ellsbury is a speed-demon with less pop, so it’s different skill sets. Someone looking for a leadoff man rather than a power hitter would probably take Ellsbury over Kemp right now, given the choice.
Holistically, though, Ellsbury’s defense is in question, so that combined with the fact that Kemp will still get you 30-40 steals while having more pop, means Kemp would win out over Ellsbury as the top man these days.
by J-Freak on Nov 2, 2009 5:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I would take ellsbury in a heartbeat...
we don’t have a leadoff hitter right now. Imagine a future lineup of…
Ellsbury
Schafer
Escobar
Heyward
Freeman
McCann
That’s not bad at all, albeit lefty heavy. But then, at what price? That said, in the debate of Kemp or Ellsbury, I take Ellsbury for this club all day.
by Mr. Sanchez on Nov 2, 2009 5:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I’ll take the guy with the higher upside and OPS everyday.
by bravesfan91 on Nov 2, 2009 6:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So, Carlos Quentin
from the White Sox straight up for Jurrjens?
by StickRat on Nov 1, 2009 6:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
na, i wanna see him stay healthy for an entire season.
"Are you tryin to say Jesus Christ can't hit a curveball?"
by mvhsbball on Nov 1, 2009 7:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
can’t stay healthy and tailed off this year.
by jack dein on Nov 1, 2009 7:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Doesn't make any sense
The White Sox don’t need to be trading bats for SP’s. Something involving a McLouth-Quentin swap may work, though, seeing as they need a LH-bat and to get better defensively.
http://www.capitolavenueclub.com/
by PWHjort on Nov 2, 2009 9:26 AM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
If we trade JJ
it better be for a hitter who is a rising star. You just don’t trade such a young talent, especially a starting pitcher, for prospects that may or may not end up being worth it.
We’re not going to trade Jurrjens. I’d be very, very surprised if Frank does deal him. We completely STOLE him from Detroit in the first place.
by ATLforlife on Nov 1, 2009 7:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
almost like a heyward-type guy from another team…
"When life gives you lemons, just say 'F*ck the lemons,' and bail."
by Bravely going forward on Nov 1, 2009 10:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Who would fit the bill?
Would you trade him for a Hunter Pence? Andre Ethier? There are not that many young impact bats that would fit the Braves and their needs right now that easily come to mind. Given that JJ is not making a ton of money I can’t see him being traded for prospects.
That being said he may (outside of Hanson) be the most valuable SP in a trade market. So if the Braves can get a up and coming RH bat…I could live with it. However, it would have to be a really good…sure bet hitter that would be in the Braves plans long term.
by calbers on Nov 1, 2009 8:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Matt Kemp is one guy who certainly fits the bill and the Dodgers have a need for starting pitching. Hmm….
"Four of us wolves, running around the desert together in Las Vegas, looking for strippers and cocaine..."
by jeg on Nov 1, 2009 10:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
and then what do you do with Schafer/McLouth?...
trade and hope to get back anything near Jurrjens?
There is no deal out there that is worth giving up Jair Jurrjens imo.
by Mr. Sanchez on Nov 1, 2009 11:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think I have to agree
Though I have to admit I do like Markakis a lot, I still don’t think I’d give up Jurrjens to get him. Having said that, there are some ridiculous offers I would do. Sizemore for Jurrjens straight up would be one.
You aren’t the czar of typographic emphasis
by scstrato on Nov 1, 2009 11:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
Jurrjens will be around for a long time. It will be one of the biggest mistake the Braves can make. He is a future star. He is just as good as Hanson IMO and that is saying alot. There is absolutely no way the Braves can deal him. NO WAY
Admired as a saint. Defined by my rank. Combined with my strength. My time and my length.
by ArmyITSpec on Nov 4, 2009 1:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd trade him for Hunter Pence
There’s probably 20+ position players I’d trade him for. Off the top of my head: Longoria, Kemp, Pence, J. Upton, Tulowitzki, McCutchen, Votto, Bruce, Pujols (of course), Braun, Wright, Zimmerman, H. Ramirez, Utley, Youkikis, A. Lind, T. Snyder, G. Sizemore, B. Butler, J. Smoak.
http://www.capitolavenueclub.com/
by PWHjort on Nov 2, 2009 9:44 AM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Billy Butler… seriously… i just dont know about that… he had a pretty good season, but he’s not very good at 1B and is more of a DH… i know he could has some ceiling, but still
Im not crazy about Smoak or Pence either
its not that i wouldnt want these guys, but i wouldnt want these guys fro jurrjens
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
by Swo12bv on Nov 2, 2009 12:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm very high on Butler
Defense is bad, yes, but he’s got a great chance of being a star with the bat. 35+ homers, .300 avg, draws his walks, etc..
I dunno, though. Pence/Smoak are more debatable than Butler, I’ll give you that, but in a vacuum I’d trade anyone on the Braves’ 40-man roster for Butler except McCann or Hanson.
http://www.capitolavenueclub.com/
by PWHjort on Nov 2, 2009 1:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
35 homers
is stretching it I think
by eaheckman10 on Nov 2, 2009 8:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not according to Keith Law
And the people at BA and BPro and various other places that are reputable sources for talent evaluation.
http://www.capitolavenueclub.com/
by PWHjort on Nov 3, 2009 1:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Putting aside the evaluation of Butler, Keith Law is sort of a shock jock version of a baseball writer. BPro has some good people and some who are worse than worthless.
by Salty on Nov 3, 2009 9:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed on BPro
Sheehan in particular is a moron. I like Law, though. He was a professional talent evaluator and mixes plenty of saber ideas into his work.
http://www.capitolavenueclub.com/
by PWHjort on Nov 3, 2009 11:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
With a chance of...
so you’re willing to trade for a “chance of”, by giving up what already is one of the more productive right handed starters in the game at age 23?
by Mr. Sanchez on Nov 3, 2009 9:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
The Braves would have to get an established bat in a trade. Potential be damned, they aren’t re-building, this is to compete now.
by Andy Braves Fan on Nov 3, 2009 9:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It's not a "chance"
It’s going to happen. As long as he doesn’t seriously injure himself. And he’s at no more theoretical risk to that than Jurrjens. Also, don’t be a bias homer. If you asked an intelligent fan of the 28 other teams, they would all say that Atlanta wins a 1-for-1 swap of Butler for Jurrjens every time and it’s not even close. Butler is GOING to be an impact player. Jurrjens is going to be a 2-3 starter.
Jurrjens is good and everything, but his 2009 ERA was smoke in mirrors and he’s due for regression. Not that he’s not valuable, but he ain’t no Tommy Hanson or Tim Lincecum or King Felix or even Matt Cain.
http://www.capitolavenueclub.com/
by PWHjort on Nov 3, 2009 11:19 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't have a problem with Butler...
his young right handed bat would be a nice addition, add Canizares (who could play for KC until a replacement is ready at 1B/DH) and maybe Medlen plus a minor league arm to see if they’ll include Soria.
But some of the other names you mention—Hunter Pence, Kevin Youklis, Andrew McCutcheon, Justin Smoak, Jay Bruce, Travis Snider, Seriously?
by Mr. Sanchez on Nov 3, 2009 11:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not as a match for Jurrjens...
but I am a fan of Cutch. I think he will be a fantastic player. Youkilis is old…
by Andy Braves Fan on Nov 3, 2009 11:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I like the players fan,...
but strictly in the sense of straight for Jurrjens I don’t.
by Mr. Sanchez on Nov 3, 2009 12:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not to get in on the argument here, cause I really have no interest in it, but Jurrjens is already a 2-3 starter. Seems to me like he could develop into a number one, given his age and success so far.
"At least he didn’t nail the bitchy fat girl from Hell's Kitchen."
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by cbwilk on Nov 3, 2009 11:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
exactly
and he seems like a pretty cerebral starter as well, which bodes well for his ability to continue to make adjustments
by Andy Braves Fan on Nov 3, 2009 11:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sure, Jair may regress
but remember, he placed third in the NL in ERA this season. This having been his second full season, he is an established top of the rotation arm at 24. To get a 24 year old top of the rotation starter, Frank Wren would be foolish to accept a guy unless he is sure 35+ homers is a lock (like Prince Fielder). Remember, plenty of scouts thought failcoeur was “the natural” (sorry to bring up bad memories).
I’m not saying Butler won’t do it. His stats look good…
by Andy Braves Fan on Nov 3, 2009 11:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Also, don’t be a bias homer. If you asked an intelligent fan of the 28 other teams, they would all say that Atlanta wins a 1-for-1 swap of Butler for Jurrjens every time and it’s not even close.
I think that your Butler v Jurrjens comparison fails to take into account the fact that Butler is a very poor defender at a stacked position. This limits his WAR upside, since he’s essentially giving away 2 wins per season between his fielding and the positional adjustment. What you’re left with is a guy who, even if he hits, is probably a 3 win player, at most.
Meanwhile, Jurrjens has chipped in 4 WAR per year for each of the last two years.
This is not a case of people being biased homers; it’s a case of you being wrong.
If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.
by Yakker on Nov 3, 2009 12:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
is probably a 3 win player, at most.
No. You’re talking about one of the top-10 power hitters in the game who also hits for average and takes his walks. Even with the positional adjustments and defensive limitations, he could still be a 5-6 win player. (6 is probably stretching it, but 5 isn’t)
Meanwhile, Jurrjens has chipped in 4 WAR per year for each of the last two years
Get this through your head. Jurrjens is not as good as his ERA has been. It’s not even close, either. His xFIP has been 4.02 and 4.44 the past two seasons. The past two seasons he’s got a 2.01 K/BB ratio and a 0.87 GB/FB ratio. His ERA (and thus his WAR) is completely unsustainable. In fact, if you compare his fangraphs WAR (which uses performance metrics) to his historical WAR database WAR (which uses skill metrics) in 2008, you get a 1.3 win (2.5 to 3.8) difference. HWDB hasn’t been updated for 2009, but it won’t be much different than his 2008 WAR and probably a bit worse.
Expecting him to chip in more than 3 WAR for the next 4 seasons is unrealistic and delusional.
http://www.capitolavenueclub.com/
by PWHjort on Nov 3, 2009 2:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You’re talking about one of the top-10 power hitters in the game
Guys we are not talking about:
1. Albert Pujols
2. Alex Rodriguez
3. Prince Fielder
4. Mark Teixeira
5. Ryan Howard
6. Hanley Ramirez
7. Ryan Braun
8. Adrian Gonzalez
9. Miguel Cabrera
10. Adam Dunn
And you’re saying I’m delusional?
If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.
by Yakker on Nov 3, 2009 2:30 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Not to mention
Mark Reynolds
Carlos Pena
Kendry Morales
Nelson Cruz
Evan Longoria
Ryan Zimmerman
Etc., all of whom are young and many of whom are improving
by Andy Braves Fan on Nov 3, 2009 2:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, it was actually pretty hard coming up with that list. I debated including all of the guys you mentioned, as well as a few others (Ortiz, Bruce, Utley, Werth, J Upton, Kemp, Hamilton, etc.) before even thinking about Butler.
If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.
by Yakker on Nov 3, 2009 4:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Clearly there is something to what JJ is doing
Because the stats are there despite his FIP 2 years in a row. I’ts not the Braves defense, as evidenced by D-Lowe’s FIP this season.
by Andy Braves Fan on Nov 3, 2009 2:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry but i would rather have a good young #2 now and could be #1 in a few years perhaps over a shitty defender no matter how good his offense is.
braves#1
by rockybull on Nov 3, 2009 3:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I’m a big Lind fan, but he needs to stay in the DH league for his own good. Besides, he’s riding one good season, and while there’s a great chance he’ll repeat, I wouldn’t give up a cost-controlled ace like Jurrjens for him straight up, and Toronto is not making a deal that sees Lind and someone else go out the door.
by J-Freak on Nov 2, 2009 5:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Totally unrelated....
But has anyone notice that the Pirates have been churning out CFers as of late?
McClouth (we know about him)
Nyjer Morgan-Hit .300/.360/ w/ 40+ SBs.
Rajai Davis-Who they gave away for nothing to the Giants who hit .300/.360 with 40+ SBs for the A’s.
McCutchen-Looks like a star in the making….
Anyone else in their system that we can fleece? You could have had a nice OF of Morgan, McCutchen, and McCloud. May not crush the ball, but it would be a nice defensive OF and boy would that team fly!
by calbers on Nov 1, 2009 8:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
now if only they could develop a pitcher…or 5.
"Are you tryin to say Jesus Christ can't hit a curveball?"
by mvhsbball on Nov 1, 2009 8:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Very true...
Though it makes you wonder if they see something in Gorky that I missed….
by calbers on Nov 1, 2009 8:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
all Gorkys has done since we traded him is strike out. he hasnt really improved since we got him in 2007. His power still hasnt came around, his K/BB ratio is 4.2/1, and his OBP is way too low to be a leadoff man. he could still turn it around, but I dont have much faith in him
"Are you tryin to say Jesus Christ can't hit a curveball?"
by mvhsbball on Nov 1, 2009 8:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
This guy played center field?
.
just kidding
by Salty on Nov 2, 2009 10:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not happening.
Trading a young, cheap, fantastic pitcher who is still improving like Jurrjens would be an awful move.
If he is somehow traded, Wren better get a REALLY good bat in return, perhaps someone like Lou Gehrig or Ty Cobb.
You say to-mah-to, I say you're retarded.
by alligatorimpersonator on Nov 2, 2009 12:21 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
we need a right handed hitter and a 1b… the obvious choice here is Jimmie Foxx
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
by Swo12bv on Nov 2, 2009 12:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Actually we could use a LF too. I’d say the obvious choice is to bring back Hank Aaron.
by bravesfan91 on Nov 2, 2009 12:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Aaron played RF…but i agree
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
by Swo12bv on Nov 2, 2009 12:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He ended up playing about two year’s worth of innings in LF too……but yeah he was a RF.
by bravesfan91 on Nov 2, 2009 1:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
bring back the executive/player deisgnation
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
by Swo12bv on Nov 2, 2009 12:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Only way
is if we were getting a Nelson Cruz, Justin Upton, Adam Jones, Ryan Braun or Andre Eithier caliber and cost controlled player. If I were to wake up and see a headline that said Jair Jurrjens traded for “????” and it wasnt one of those names im sure there would be a riot.
by drumzalicious on Nov 2, 2009 12:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn’t trade Jurrjens for Nelson Cruz.
by bravesfan91 on Nov 2, 2009 1:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
some of the names mentioned in this thread..
in addition to Cruz, are laughable. Did people not watch him pitch the last two years? Why would you get rid of him now, with so many cost controlled years coming up, unless it was bringing back a very premium package.
by Mr. Sanchez on Nov 2, 2009 1:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
If I’m trading Jurrjens then I expect either a hefty return featuring two of a team’s top prospects or a young blue-chipper in return such as a Ryan Braun/Justin Upton type, even if that means we have to add some on this side of that deal.
by bravesfan91 on Nov 2, 2009 1:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
no way. wren wouldnt trade JJ for two nelson cruz’s…it’d have to be either, braun, kemp, fielder, MAYBE adam jones
"Im a fullonrapist, I do men, women, autistic kids, children, the elderly." -Charlie Kelly
by Hcgadawgs on Nov 2, 2009 3:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i know
that not all those players on that list are of equal value. The point I was trying to make is that it would have to be someone that would be very good.
by drumzalicious on Nov 3, 2009 12:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
When is the ROY awarded? Do we have anyone besides Hanson in contention for an award this year?
Here are Pujols's stats: 1.000/1.000/4.000/5.000. That's right. He is batting a thousand, with a thousand OBP (naturally), and every hit has been a home run, and thus his OPS is a perfect 5.000.
by TradeAndruw on Nov 2, 2009 1:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Realistically, no
Medlen, Kawakami, and Schafer are qualified for it, though.
http://www.capitolavenueclub.com/
by PWHjort on Nov 2, 2009 1:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Javy has an outside shot at CY Young…but he wont win obviously
and McCann will win Silver Slugger at the C position again (most likely)
that should be about it.
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
by Swo12bv on Nov 3, 2009 3:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Javy’s top 10 in all three triple crown categories. Unfortunately so are Wainwright and Lincecum, and Lincecum is higher than Javy in all three.
No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.
by royhobbs on Nov 3, 2009 4:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i was just saying he is in contention for hte award… theres no way he will win… but i think he’s in contention
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
by Swo12bv on Nov 3, 2009 4:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
My money is on
Carpenter. I’ll admit it should go to Wainwright or Lincecum, but I just can’t get past what Carp did this year.
You aren’t the czar of typographic emphasis
by scstrato on Nov 3, 2009 9:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The Braves would have to get either a huge power bat that is young and cheap or a prospects haul the size we gave Texas for Texiera
by KC Ryan on Nov 2, 2009 1:43 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Jurrjens would warrant a huge haul
he is almost un-tradeable. The haul would have to be tremendous, at least one highly recognized power-bat..
Only way I see this happening:
Jurrjens to Milwaukee for Prince Fielder or Ryan Braun.
Disclaimer on this comment: I don’t like to rosterbate and don’t mistake this for such, just trying to provide perspective on what Jurrjens’ value is to the Braves. Also, I have no idea if Milwaukee would actually pull the trigger on that.
by Andy Braves Fan on Nov 2, 2009 6:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn’t trade four years of Jurrjens for two of Prince and the Brewers would be effing stupid to trade the 6-8 years Braun has left on his very cheap contract for Jair
by McCann's the Man on Nov 2, 2009 7:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Good points
again, the comment was more about providing perspective on the types of players the Braves would be looking for in return, not really looking at the deal seriously…
by Andy Braves Fan on Nov 2, 2009 8:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i see shewre your going
but i would say Jurrjens has more value than Fielder because of the fact that fielder is under contract 10 mil next year and still goes to arbitration another time after that. So he is quite the expense.
by drumzalicious on Nov 3, 2009 12:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
again
the evaluation was purely based on performance, as in that is the calibur of player that it would take to acquire Jurrjens from the Braves.
by Andy Braves Fan on Nov 3, 2009 7:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
JJ straight up for
for Justin Upton.
The Diamondbacks hang up?
If we throw in Schafer and they throw in a bullpen arm, who hangs up?
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Nov 3, 2009 12:45 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Diamondbacks
If the Braves offered Heyward for Upton the Diamondbacks probably hang up.
http://www.capitolavenueclub.com/
by PWHjort on Nov 3, 2009 1:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You know the idea of a trade...
doesn’t include one side hanging up on the other.
by Mr. Sanchez on Nov 3, 2009 9:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The Diamondbacks, hang up, change their phone number, and get a restraining order on Wren.
Justin Upton may be the most untradeable player in the major leagues.
If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.
by Yakker on Nov 3, 2009 1:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He is up there
its interesting that you mentioned that. There was an article that came out a few months ago that went over the full top 50 most “untradeable” players. Basically, players whose value based on contract and performance were difficult or impossible to trade, mostly because it would be so difficult to get equal return. Upton was certainly up there, Pujols, McCann I think broke the top 10.
can’t remember who wrote the article, but it would be an interesting read this offseason. If anybody else knows which article it was, let me know.
by Andy Braves Fan on Nov 3, 2009 1:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Dave Cameron
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2009-mlb-trade-value-recap/
Upton was 3, behind Longoria (who was not even close to number 2) and Hanley. McCann was 6. Heyward was 39. Hanson was 40. Vazquez was an honorable mention. Here’s a list of pitchers who made the list (including honorable mentions):
Lincecum
Greinke
Haren
King Felix
Verlander
Strasburg
Price
Shields
Billingsley
Kershaw
Josh Johnson
Jimenez
Lester
Buchholz
Beckett
Chamberlain
Scherzer
Hamels
Jered Weaver
Javier Vazquez
Jurrjens didn’t make the list.
http://www.capitolavenueclub.com/
by PWHjort on Nov 3, 2009 1:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Nor did Billy Butler.
If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.
by Yakker on Nov 3, 2009 2:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Nice
Thanks, I was looking for that.
by Andy Braves Fan on Nov 3, 2009 2:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Surprised Jurrjens didn't make it
I wonder why that is. He is really cheap, and has pitched like an ace.
by Andy Braves Fan on Nov 3, 2009 2:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
In retort to this article
The reason guys like Wainwright and Jurrjens didn’t make this list is explained here:
A lot of the "why isn’t this guy on the list?" questions came from fans of National League teams with good-but-not-great young pitchers. Yovanni Gallardo, Adam Wainwright, Matt Cain, and Jordan Zimmermann are all valuable assets, but trying to make an argument for them based on their non-league adjusted numbers simply doesn’t work. Put simply, the National League is vastly inferior to the AL right now, and the lack of a DH allows for pitchers who pitch in the senior circuit to post superficially better numbers than their AL peers. Simply put, you stick a guy like Chamberlain in the NL, and he’d look like Cy Young. Sorry, NL fans, but your pitchers aren’t as good as you think.
I understand why Cameron thinks this, but I think he over-emphasizes the league adjustment… unfairly so for NL pitchers. Lets just take Jurrjens as an example. It is a smaller sample size, but his ERA against AL teams and the better NL lineups so far in his career:
Boston: 3.14 ERA in 14.1 innings
Cleveland: 3.29, 13.2 innings
Colorado: 2.94, 33.2 IP
Kansas City: 15.42, 2.1 innings pitched
LA Dodgers: 4.03, 22.1 innings
Minnesonta: 5.40, 8.1 innings
Mets: 2.44, 51.2 innings
Yankees: 6.75, 1.1 innings
Oakland: 0.00, 5 IP
Philly: 2.35, 53.2 innings
Seattle, 0.00, 6 IP
St. Louis: 2.14, 21 IP
Texas: 1.80, 5.0 IP
Toronto: 1.29, 14 IP
There are some clunkers in there, but these are all of the AL teams he has faced so far as well as the teams that made the post-season this year from the NL. He has fared quite well. Would he be as good in the AL as in the NL? It is hard to tell, but he has held his own so far. I agree that there is probably some disparity, but to write off NL pitching like Cameron did is pretty unfair and I don’t think that the evidence backs it up.
by Andy Braves Fan on Nov 3, 2009 3:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Over emphasizes?...
he says a pitcher who can’t last more than 6 innings at best would “look like Cy Young”. I think it’s safe to say he’s either way over emphasizing the AL vs. NL, or he’s just a Nebraskan.
by Mr. Sanchez on Nov 3, 2009 3:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
But Joba Chamberlain did?
yeah, nice list.
by Mr. Sanchez on Nov 3, 2009 3:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
thats a cool list… i have a ton of nitpicky problems with it… like McCann should be ahead of Weiters (IMHO) and Mauer should be higher than 16th (although i guess with hiscontract it makes a bit of sense).
and joba shouldnt be anywhere near the list, until he becomes the closer in waiting
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
by Swo12bv on Nov 3, 2009 4:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
or until he becomes good at pitching…
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Nov 3, 2009 5:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah
he really ought to do that before he belongs on the list.
I also have a problem with any pitcher like Jurrjens or Wainwright not on this list while Strassburg is when he was just drafted…
by Andy Braves Fan on Nov 3, 2009 6:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I talked to his dad yesterday. I kind of wanted to get a semen sample so I could create me a superstar baseball team.
"At least he didn’t nail the bitchy fat girl from Hell's Kitchen."
www.dropoutproductions.com
by cbwilk on Nov 3, 2009 1:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
and a collection of assholes
oops : o
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
by Swo12bv on Nov 3, 2009 3:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Too true, too true.
"At least he didn’t nail the bitchy fat girl from Hell's Kitchen."
www.dropoutproductions.com
by cbwilk on Nov 3, 2009 4:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Did his Dad play ball?
If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.
by Yakker on Nov 3, 2009 4:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Only with his wife! Ba-zing!
"At least he didn’t nail the bitchy fat girl from Hell's Kitchen."
www.dropoutproductions.com
by cbwilk on Nov 3, 2009 4:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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