Top-5 Off-Season Questions for the Atlanta Braves: #5
by gondeee on Oct 6, 2009 8:42 PM EDT
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PrintWe conclude our look at the top-5 questions facing the Atlanta Braves this off-season.
Question Five: To Tender or Non-Tender
One of the repeated questions I was asked on blog-talk radio shows this season was how long Jeff Francoeur was going to be in a Braves uniform. My repeated answer, and one that I put in post after post on this blog, was that he would not be in a Braves uniform through the end of the season, but that the Braves were unlikely to just release him. The logic followed that the Braves had built this guy up too much to just "waive" him goodbye, they had to get a warm body for him. Enter the Ryan Church trade. Church gives the Braves a player that they can cut ties with without the big media frenzy and the fairweather fans screaming, "but not Francooerrr." By trading him during the season, at least there was the distraction of games to be played to misdirect attention.
So there you have it, the Braves will release Ryan Church this off-season. Church is a third-year arbitration case who made $2.8 million last year, and would likely get a raise to over $3 million next year regardless of his 2009 numbers. That's way too much for an oft-injured fourth outfielder.
The Braves will also release Kelly Johnson this off-seaosn.
Wow, I really said it. This is a very similar situation to the Marcus Giles situation several years ago (which actually was the impetus for moving Kelly to second base). Giles was coming off a poor season in which the Braves had a tight payroll and through arbitration he was due a big raise. The Braves tried and tried to trade him, but every other GM knew that the Braves couldn't afford him, and they didn't want to give up players and more money by trading for him. This is exactly the situation we find ourselves in with KJ. Yes, Cox came out and gave Kelly a vote of confidence, but I bet you can find a similar quote from Cox at the end of the 2006 season about Giles, and Marcus had a much better year that season than Kelly did this year.
As much as many Braves fans like Kelly, the fact is he just hasn't lived up to his promise, and the Braves can't pay him many millions just to see if he finally will next year. Yes, the Braves will try and trade him, and we'll hear plenty of rumors, but that ain't happening, and the Braves will release him.
Brooks Conrad will also be non-tendered. As good as he was for a few weeks during his mid-year call-up, he was only 1-for-18 as a pinch hitter -- that one hit was a three-run game-winning homerun in his first at bat as a Brave. The Braves may offer him a minor league contract and another invite to spring training, but not a major league contract or a guaranteed spot on the 40-man roster.
Brian Barton, gone. Greg Norton, mercifully gone. Buddy Carlyle will probably get released, but with an eye towards a minor league contract and an invite to spring training. Ditto for Jorge Campillo.
Eric O'Flaherty, he'll be back, as he was a pleasant surprise. I can't see the Braves parting ways with any other pitchers, other than the ones listed above and the annual parting of the ways with Vladimir Nunez. I get this feeling that there will be a lot of new faces added to our bullpen or potential bullpen mix this off-season. Bobby Cox needs more relievers he has confidence in, and I feel there will be a lot of auditions going on in spring training.
Matt Diaz will be offered a contract, and will get a hefty raise -- this is one of the reasons I think he'll be a prime trade candidate. He's good, but the Braves covet a power bat, and they may be able to match up with a team who would prefer the Diaz approach to hitting. I would rather keep him, but as I said in the first post today (question one), I don't see how he fits in the outfield with Heyward and a power bat that would presumably play left.
That's all for the top-5 questions, I hope you enjoyed them. I initially thought these five questions would be just one post, but they sort of spiraled out of control, so thanks for reading (if you've gotten this far).
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Lets play the guessing game shall we?
What Talking Chop regular will have the “most” posts in this thread??? I think i have an idea lol.
braves#1
I’ll take the under.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Oct 7, 2009 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions
i dont wanna trade him either
but if he helps bring in a big time bat, we gotta do what we gotta do.
Frank Wren for GM of the Year.
"Wait, bait and bash." - Jason Heyward's personal philosophy.
by Scott Coleman on Oct 6, 2009 9:39 PM EDT up reply actions
I think you are wrong about KJ...
I just think he will still be here next year. Ryan Church? Probably not. Matt Diaz? He better be here, or I will be one unhappy camper.
"It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone." A. Bartlett Giamatti
KJ
I’m surprised by the non-tender prediction, as well as the untradeable theory. Kelly has a lot of athletic ability and looked like an emerging .300 hitter and potential All-Star last year.
Also, my memory is like swiss cheese. No, probably not even that good. Were there ever any confirmed, actual deals on the table last off season involving Kelly or was it all just speculative conjecturbation? Kelly for Ludwick? Kelly for …?
No uncompleted trade has ever been truly "confirmed" and "actual..."
But that deal was as close to it as there was. Ludwick, though, certainly had his ups and downs this season, even if the final numbers look pretty ok.
Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt
by MichaelProcton on Oct 8, 2009 10:04 PM EDT up reply actions
That was from yesterday.
And no you may not have some.
hohohhohohoh its the offseason, time to rosterbate in public places
My thoughts
Derek Lowe, Kris Medlen, Freddie Freeman, Jo-Jo Reyes and Diory Hernandez to the Brewers for Prince Fielder
Kelly Johnson and Manny Acosta to the DBacks for Conner Jackson
Matt Diaz to the White Sox for Bobby Jenks
Re-sign Mike Gonzalez – 3 yr/18 mil contract.
Extend Tim Hudson – 4 yr/32 mil contract and Javier Vazquez – 4 yr/48 mil contract.
Lineup:
McLouth – CF
Prado – 2B
Chipper – 3B(hopefully will rebound)
Fielder – 1B
Escobar – SS
McCann – C
Jackson – LF
Heyward – RF
Bench:
Ross – C
Infante – Super Utility
Burke – IF
B. Jones – OF
Blanco – OF
Starting Pitchers:
Vazquez – RHP
Jurrjens – RHP
Hudson – RHP
Hanson – RHP
Kawakami – RHP
Bullpen:
Carlyle/Campillo – LRP
Logan – LOOGY
Valdez/ Nunez – MRP
O’Flaherty – MRP
Moylan – SUP
Gonzalez – SUP/CP
Jenks – SUP/CP
by Jay212033 on Oct 6, 2009 10:13 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
why would the brewers want diory, jo-jo, and lowe? they need good starters, not more crumby ones.
Also, why would CHW want Matt diaz for Jenks? Thats not a very fair trade.
hohohhohohoh its the offseason
Why?!?!
The Brewers need pitching and their contracts are not too far off Fielder will be making 10.5 mil next season.
Also the White Sox need OF as well as DH help and Matty will fit their needs.
by Jay212033 on Oct 6, 2009 11:00 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
the brewers are the poster case for this statement
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
My favorite part was KJ and Sir Sucks a lot for Conor Jackson- yeah, sure.
by Bmacbandwagon on Oct 7, 2009 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions
According to whom?
Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt
by MichaelProcton on Oct 8, 2009 10:06 PM EDT up reply actions
subscriber only
http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9462
hohohhohohoh its the offseason, time to rosterbate in public places
Haha...relevant quote, then, at least?
Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt
by MichaelProcton on Oct 8, 2009 10:10 PM EDT up reply actions
im not an insider :P
via MLBTR:
The Diamondbacks may non-tender Conor Jackson.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/08/perrottos-latest-twins-damon-franklin-penny-dye.html
hohohhohohoh its the offseason, time to rosterbate in public places
Haha...aright.
I’ll take what you give and I appreciate your digging.
Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt
by MichaelProcton on Oct 8, 2009 10:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Manny Acosta=Sir Sucks a lot
Mat Gamel is way too cool for double consonants.
by VivaLosBravos on Oct 7, 2009 7:14 PM EDT up reply actions
That's not what I don't get
What I don’t get is what’s so ludicrous about KJ and Acosta for Jackson? Jackson is a non-tender candidate for the DBacks and KJ is for us so I threw Acosta in there to sweeten the deal. Also I’ve seen worse than Acosta.
Acosta cant sweeten any deal. He sucks, ya know.
And why would you want jackson but not kj? they are nearly the same player
hohohhohohoh its the offseason
You know, I’d normally completely agree with you about Acosta, but the Diamondbacks did end up with Blaine Boyer on their team, as well as Daniel Cabrera, so maybe a guy like Acosta is right up their alley.
"At least he didn’t nail the bitchy fat girl from Hell's Kitchen."
www.dropoutproductions.com
Jackson can play multiple positions OF/1B and some 3B plus he's RH, doesn't K nearly as much and is more consistent than Kelly.
Jackson can play multiple positions OF/1B and some 3B. Also he’s RH, doesn’t K as much and is more consistent than Kelly.
by Jay212033 on Oct 7, 2009 11:46 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
thats what i meant my reply got moved down, Jackson is far and away better than KJ in terms of potential and his current tools
My post got screwed up some how...
I still love mobile posting though. But the reason I posted the idea is because both guys are non-tender candidates and the DBacks are need a 2B and the Braves need a LF/backup 1B/3B the trade would benefit both squads.
by Jay212033 on Oct 8, 2009 12:10 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
In a public thread, lad? For the good of your soul, show some restraint.
by brndn on Oct 6, 2009 10:26 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
this
Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt
by MichaelProcton on Oct 8, 2009 10:08 PM EDT up reply actions
the only reason the Brewers would look into trading Fielder is to save money
so why would they take Lowe?
Re:
Post an article or something where the Brewers say that. I read that they are willing to trade him for pitching help.
by Jay212033 on Oct 6, 2009 11:05 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
It's a pretty simple concept
The Brewers are a mid-market team, Fielder is making $10.5 million next season and still has one more year of arbitration eligibility after that before he becomes a free agent and gets really expensive.
Whenever you see a mid or small payroll team open to trading a young superstar, it’s a pretty safe bet that the move is to save money and try to retool. The Brewers just are not going to deal Fielder for a far more expensive and mediocre starting pitcher. If Lowe goes, we’re not getting much back and would probably have to pick up some of his salary too.
if they traded fielder it would be for someone like Jurrjens, or Matt Cain (as was rumored last year)…it makes no sense for them to trade for Lowe (unless they dont trade fielder and go for broke in 2010, which is a possibility)
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
Lowe is certainly more expensive...
But calling him mediocre is probably going a little far.
Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt
by MichaelProcton on Oct 8, 2009 10:09 PM EDT up reply actions
My goodness
Can we stop trying to get rid of our 1B of the future
by drumzalicious on Oct 7, 2009 12:46 AM EDT up reply actions
So you mean to tell me
That if you could get a proven young superstar for an unproven guy who may or may not pan out that you would not make that deal?
by Jay212033 on Oct 7, 2009 8:31 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
But isnt Prince going to be a FA soon?
Most likely, he will be one we can’t afford. So, in reality, it’s like trading a potential superstar for one or two years of an established superstar.
but for only two years of prince at 10.5 mil/yr??
really? youd do that?
"If I have asthma, they won't let me scuba. And if I can’t scuba, then what’s this all been about?? What am I working toward??"
um
what?
"If I have asthma, they won't let me scuba. And if I can’t scuba, then what’s this all been about?? What am I working toward??"
um
i would trade freddie freeman and more prospects for prince fielder if we had enough money to pay prince fielder…
hohohhohohoh its the offseason, time to rosterbate in public places
yeah i figured that
was hoping you would translate your previous message, if i we 10.5 mil
"If I have asthma, they won't let me scuba. And if I can’t scuba, then what’s this all been about?? What am I working toward??"
In a heartbeat
A 40+ HR guy in the middle of this lineup would be tremendous and if we got rid of Lowe’s contract at the same time we’d actually be saving money. Freeman is a darn good prospect but if you have the chance to get a guy who’s already a super why would you not make the deal?!?! That’s like saying if the Cardinals said they would trade us Albert for Heyward, Medlen, and Lowe would you not make that deal based on Heyward’s POTENTIAL?!?! The best hitter in the game for a guy that may or may not pan out, the Braves would be crazy not to make that deal.
by Jay212033 on Oct 8, 2009 12:00 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
well, first, albert does not equal prince
and im not saying i would or wouldnt make that deal. i was just pointing out that prince is expensive (which we might not be able to afford) and we would probably only get him for a year or two. we’ve been down that road before with Tex.
Simply saying ‘id trade freeman for prince’ is disingenuous. it’s more complicated than that.
"If I have asthma, they won't let me scuba. And if I can’t scuba, then what’s this all been about?? What am I working toward??"
No
Not when we have less expensive options that do not cost us prospects and more money. You do realize that after next season Fielder will go to arbitration AGAIN. He was only signed through 2010 in 2011 he his arbitration again most likely making at least 12-14 mil. thats 22-24 mil at the least that we would pay him for two years. We could resign LaRoche for just as much if not less and hold on to our prospects.
by drumzalicious on Oct 8, 2009 7:59 PM EDT up reply actions
So LaRoche's 25-30 HRs=Prince's 40?
If we’re looking for a consistent run producer, Fielder is vastly superior.
Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt
by MichaelProcton on Oct 8, 2009 10:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Yea he is superior
I never said LaRoche would be better. I said he would be cheaper and allow us to hold onto our prospects.
by drumzalicious on Oct 9, 2009 1:07 AM EDT up reply actions
Our potential 1B of the future.
Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt
by MichaelProcton on Oct 8, 2009 10:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Johnson Gone along with Church
Hey ,
So I would simply non-tendered both Johnson and Church and let them both walk; Johnson would be nice to trade but that is just not going to happen similar to the M. Giles deal posted above. Why would a team trade for a guy and give up talent to acquire a guy that they could get for a much cheaper price tag on the open market.
I just hate the idea of losing Gonzo but if it means we can finally get a right handed power hitting LF in their prime then I am all for it. Closer we can get. I am telling you guys to watch out for a KK or KJ for Matt Capps trade str8 up. The Pirates are still clearing payroll and Capps is really the only holdover on their team that is costing them the most. Capps is going to be ATL’s closer is 2010 and really I could not be happier with that.
by Holty_Panthers_Fan on Oct 7, 2009 1:50 AM EDT reply actions
Matt capps sucks
hohohhohohoh its the offseason
by esadb on Oct 7, 2009 7:25 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I'd better
get my KJ Braves tee while the gettin’s good, since it’s, apparently, already been decided that he’ll be non-tendered.
Even though Bobby and Frank like him. And he CAN play.
Tigers love pepper; they hate cinnamon.
by Jareth Cutestory on Oct 7, 2009 8:28 AM EDT reply actions
Good point.
Good, well-reasoned jumping off points for discussion.
Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt
by MichaelProcton on Oct 8, 2009 10:12 PM EDT up reply actions
I hope Greg Norton is gone, but remember at any time during the regular season our wonderful GM could have released him and stopped the bleeding, but he chose not to do so. I would not consider it be 100% certain that Norton won’t be offered another contract, but I hope that sanity will prevail here.
Johnson’s inconsistency has doomed him and I think it’s going to be hard to trade him. If the Braves want to get pennies on the dollar there might be a team that would take him as a throw in as part of a bigger deal but that’s all. Having to release him might be good for KJ as it would enable him to find another team without an undeserved arbitration raise clouding the issue. I think that KJ would do well to learn a lesson that Marcus Giles failed to learn. KJ’s career in MLB is dangerously close to being over and if he doesn’t get his act together in 2010, he better be making other plans for his future.
Norton was very effective as a pinch hitter in 2008. On those occasions when he wasn’t being used as a starter, which accounted for 92 plate appearances, he OPS’d .879 with a .435 OBP. This is why he was granted a contract for 2009. An OPS of .551 (though to his credit, a .360 OBP) as a sub is why he won’t be given one for 2010.
And actually, many teams would like to have KJ. The reason we may not be able to trade him is not because he has approximately zero value but because these teams assume we will release him.
"Stopped the bleeding?"
The guy was signed to a guaranteed deal through all of last year. He is not for next year. Two entirely different situations.
Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt
by MichaelProcton on Oct 8, 2009 10:14 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t understand why we would non-tender Church…he could be a VERY valuable bench piece, and if Matt struggles in an everyday role, he would be an outstanding 4th OFer.
I’m not going to get into the KJ thing AGAIN here (go to any number of other posts if you want to know where I, and about 3 other people stand on this issue). I just think it would be very very stupid and irresponsible to non-tender KJ and Church.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Oct 7, 2009 10:50 AM EDT reply actions
You saw the part about the money right? That’s the main reason anyone gets nontendered, they make too much money to justify their role/performance.
"At least he didn’t nail the bitchy fat girl from Hell's Kitchen."
www.dropoutproductions.com
Yeah, but $3M for a 4th OF with an OBP near .400 sounds pretty good to me – especially when he could be a starter, if it weren’t for that hittin fool, Diaz.
If it is strictly a money-based decision, fine…but we will be letting a very talented player go.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Oct 7, 2009 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, I’m not going to comment on whether he is very talented or not, but according to Fangraphs he’s been worth more than $3M for the last few seasons, so I don’t know that I’d consider that enough of a reason to dump him. It does depend a lot on what the front office thinks of a timeline for Jason Heyward and of having him as a backup option if Heyward isn’t coming up to start the year. Given what the free agent market usually does to player’s prices, it doesn’t seem wise to just toss a perfectly serviceable player aside in the hopes that we can sign another Garrett Anderson. Because let’s be honest, it’s clear our GM can’t tell when outfielders are so washed up they are totally worthless.
If there is a God
Then Jason Heyward will light up the AFL in the coming weeks before the tender/nontender deadline, and Wren will also know by that deadline whether he’s gonna have the bopper we crave to stash in LF. Those two pieces of information make the decision for you. If Heyward’s ready and we turn over the right rock and find a bat, Diaz is the 4th man and Church is gone. If one or both of those things doesn’t happen, I think holding onto Church is a better option than going with someone like Blanco.
Just my two cents.
Church would absolutely be better than Blanco as a #4 OF who actually saw ABs.
As a #5, though, he’d be a a huge waste of money and upside.
Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt
by MichaelProcton on Oct 8, 2009 10:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Money and Injury Risk
He hardly even played for the Braves.
Because Church as a 4th could turn into Church as a 5th very quickly.
And his injuries and inconsistency probably didn’t exactly endear him to management.
Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt
by MichaelProcton on Oct 8, 2009 10:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Kelly Johnson...
An awesome example of how not to treat a young player. Hey, former first round pick with a solid approach at the plate but no position in the field, come on up to the bigs, save our offense and learn to play LF! Oh, you blew out your elbow? That sucks. Now quick, move to second base and bat leadoff…we need you there! You know, take some walks, steal some bases, etc. Nah, you aren’t cutting it there, move farther down and drive in some runs!
Hey kid, I like your approach….no no, actually be more selective…actually, be more agressive. Go the other way! Pull the baseball! etc., etc., etc.
by Michael Scarn, FBI on Oct 7, 2009 10:52 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Thank you.
Tigers love pepper; they hate cinnamon.
by Jareth Cutestory on Oct 7, 2009 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Kelly fans unite.....
Here’s an awesome writeup explaining Kelly’s awesomeness by our own awesome PWHjort:
http://capitolavenueclub.com/?p=988
"It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone." A. Bartlett Giamatti
by sddbaker on Oct 7, 2009 3:59 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
This needs to be freakin posted, highlighted, rec’d, front-paged, and anything else that will get people to freakin read it!!!
AWESOME WORK, PWHjort!!!
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Oct 7, 2009 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions
You probably didn’t even read it…why listen to another side of an argument when you have already made your mind up.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Oct 7, 2009 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Good word...
nope.
Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt
by MichaelProcton on Oct 8, 2009 10:21 PM EDT up reply actions
why listen to another side of an argument when you have already made your mind up.
This coming from you almost made me lol, not gonna lie.
Actually I did read it. Trend this, trend that, minute percentage difference here. Kelly has been streaky even in his good years and just bad this year. You can scratch at trends and pick at %‘s all you want, but production is the end-all when it comes to personnel moves. Johnson hasn’t been producing.
60% of the time, it works every time
Johnson didn’t produce for a month and a half – the same time-span that Prado hasn’t produced.
And if you are somehow inferring that I don’t change my mind, I can prove this incorrect. I have softened my stance on Prado quite a bit. I think he has proven that he can play everyday. I just think KJ is better at 2B than Prado and letting him go would be a mistake – especially via non-tendering.
Also, for further evidence of me changing my mind when presented with an argument: see Adam Dunn.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Oct 7, 2009 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah....
Never mind that the article is true. I’m not saying they won’t get rid of him… just that they shouldn’t get rid of him.
"It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone." A. Bartlett Giamatti
"Hasn't been producing?"
He’s produced more than two of the last three years.
Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt
by MichaelProcton on Oct 8, 2009 10:27 PM EDT up reply actions
The KJ debate simplified.
KJ is a talented player. Prado is a more or less equally talented player.
KJ costs 10X as much as Prado.
Go with the cheaper option and spend what you would have paid KJ on some bullpen help, or a big bat, or extending Hudson’s Atlanta stay.
Hate to let KJ go, but that’s baseball.
You say to-mah-to, I say you're retarded.
by alligatorimpersonator on Oct 7, 2009 6:46 PM EDT reply actions
If that is the presupposition (KJ and Prado are equal), then that makes perfect sense.
The part I struggle with is that I think that Prado is less than KJ in terms of talent. Looking at the BaBIP, Prado was really lucky this year and KJ really unlucky…Martin Prado is still a wild card, while we know exactly what KJ is capable of…providing he doesn’t have another May – June like he did this year.
That is the underlying problem…which KJ will show up and which Prado will show up?
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Oct 7, 2009 10:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Having said all of that, I then ask myself "Is the difference in talent (that I believe exists between KJ and Odarp) worth the difference in salary? That answer depends on another question: Where will they each play? Can you keep both?
Ideally, what I would like to see is Prado become the 3B of the future and KJ remain at 2B.
Prado would have immense value off the bench as a player who is so versatile. He would be a great asset off of the bench until Chipper retires and Prado can assume a role as the everyday 3B. He already is better on D at 3B than Chipper (the same cannot be said for his D at 2B) and has the potential to have a nice bat at the top of the lineup.
We then let Omar walk (or trade him?) and use that money saved for the presumed increase in KJs salary. That would make both players affordable, and answers another question in regards to the future of 3B in Atlanta.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Oct 7, 2009 10:25 PM EDT up reply actions
If you don't mind Prado at third...
Why not next year at first instead of spending a ton of money on LaRoche? I do agree that he is a wonderful weapon to have off the bench. Playing five of every seven games at three+ positions is plenty of chance to contribute without the risk of wearing him down as happened in August.
Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt
by MichaelProcton on Oct 8, 2009 10:30 PM EDT up reply actions
I’d rather have Adam at 1B though…Freeman is coming sometime in the next few years, and Chipper will be leaving. That is why I say Prado at 3B.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Oct 8, 2009 10:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Prado is inferior at the plate and (significantly) in the field.
How does that mean “more or less equally talented?”
Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt
by MichaelProcton on Oct 8, 2009 10:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh great, another one of you.
If you truly believe that, I recommend watching more baseball.
60% of the time, it works every time
...because every game isn't enough.
If you truly boil your argument down to that, I recommend a critical thinking class. They’ll teach you about thinks like logic and premises of arguments.
Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt
by MichaelProcton on Oct 8, 2009 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah…there are quite a few of us…believe it or not, some people around here actually pay attention to baseball…
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Oct 8, 2009 10:37 PM EDT up reply actions
hmmm… preconceived like “KJ is a bum” right?
Or preconceived as in "well, this guy finished 2nd or 3rd in every major offensive stat for NL 2B in 2007 and 2008…but, he DID have 150 horrible ABs in 2009…that must mean that he is a horrible player! Afterall, those 150 ABs weigh much more than 2 full seasons worth of production.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Oct 8, 2009 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions
I dont have preconceived ideas.
Check the Braves message board or this board from earlier in the year and I was in nearly every one defending KJ blindly over Prado.
Then I actually looked at their past stats, their current stats, and took the blinders off and realized what was apparent.
KJ is the streakiest hitter on the team and Prado is just flat out better as it stands now.
I took back my original idea and changed it for a new, correct one.
60% of the time, it works every time
KJ is the streakiest hitter…except when Prado goes through streaks that are just as bad for just as long, right?
Why do people continually ignore this fact???
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Oct 8, 2009 10:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Why do you continually ignore this fact.
Prado has higher career OBP – SLF – OPS – AVG
AND ITS NOT EVEN CLOSE
Prado hits for better average, hits for better power, and consitently gets on base at a better clip.
Yet you cling to the ultimate last resort stat, BAPIP, to claim that its all just good luck and bad luck.
Its such a blind argument that I have actually questioned where you were legit or simply a troll looking for lulz.
60% of the time, it works every time
Prado has around 700 career ABs. During this time, he has been fairly streaky (and downright bad at times).
KJ has 1600-ish ABs with similar OBP, more power and similar OPS. He has also been crazy streaky, but unlike Prado, KJs streakiness is a direct result of his BaBIP in the mid to low .200s.
Prado, when hot (and when is he hot, he is on FIRE) has had a BaBIP up in the high .300 to low .400s. This drives his overall numbers up as much as KJ’s low BaBIP drives his numbers down.
What do you say to the fact that this season, Prado went through a slump just as long and just as bad as KJs???
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Oct 8, 2009 10:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Prado has had TWO bad months during stretches of sufficient playing two. Other then that he is one of the most consistent hitters on the team. In 300 PAs last year? .320
In 500 PAs this year? .307
And how does Kelly have more power, yet have a lower SLG%? That makes a ton of sense.
Kelly has a bad month every other month, but oh yeah, its only his bapip. Nothing to do with him chasing breaking balls or popping up…no…its bapip.
60% of the time, it works every time
I was just answering your question.
And that sarcasm makes you look super smart!
hohohhohohoh its the offseason, time to rosterbate in public places
by esadb on Oct 8, 2009 11:09 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Considering that you have provided ZERO proof that KJ is always popping up or chasing curves away, i think i will stick with my BaBIP reasoning…
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Oct 8, 2009 11:14 PM EDT up reply actions
i mean
other than watching the games there isnt much you can do to prove it.
Prado’s slump could be attributed to personal issues during the month of august but KJ . . . .
I mean after a certain amount of time i stop caring about the guy is getting un-lucky. Every ball that guy hit was not something where the defender made an awesome play.
by drumzalicious on Oct 9, 2009 1:13 AM EDT up reply actions
I think Prado was dealin with dizziness and missed games cause of it durin the month of August IF i remember correctly.
braves#1
i believe
his mother and sister also had some serious immigration issues
"If I have asthma, they won't let me scuba. And if I can’t scuba, then what’s this all been about?? What am I working toward??"
My relatives have had issues which didn't cause me to fall out on a daily basis.
Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt
by MichaelProcton on Oct 9, 2009 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions
wow
i guess youre a better person than martin then…i think that if i were playing in a foreign country and my mother and sister were detained by immigration officials as they left the country, i’d prob be torn up about it too..
but it’s good to know that you’re so awesome.
"If I have asthma, they won't let me scuba. And if I can’t scuba, then what’s this all been about?? What am I working toward??"
He had heat stress for about a week.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Oct 9, 2009 10:05 AM EDT up reply actions
yes and then struggled some at first when he came back from this which affected his numbers.
braves#1
So his week-long heat stress is an acceptable excuse, but KJ’s injury (which required 3 cortisone shots!) is not???
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Oct 9, 2009 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Im sayin he has an excuse for bein streaky for some of August. We dont know how longer KJ was hurt, i dont know if he was hurt the whole time or a few weeks i really honestly dont know, and none of us on this site knows as well maybe the only ones that knows is KJ, his teammates and the braves management who knows he could have just been hurt for a few days before he had to get the 3 cortisone shots we honestly just dont know about how long he was hurt its a mystery to us. We do know about Prado dizziness though and how long he had that and how he performed afterwards.
braves#1
We know as much about Prado’s dizziness and how long it lasted as we do KJs wrist injury.
This is just getting pathetic now. The straw-grasping needs to stop.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Oct 9, 2009 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions
lol
well for one im not the one that said “KJ injury is the reason why he was bad the first half” like you said. Could it have been if he was hurt the whole time? sure who knows either way. But we do know that dizziness knocked Prado out some in August and obviously was a reason for him strugglin some after he came back, he didn’t go on the DL like KJ did. Maybe if Prado went on the DL he would have came back fresh and wouldn’t have struggled some when he came back. Your sayin this is getting pathedic now? Really? lol. Your love for KJ and biasness for Prado already got pathedic longgggggg before you said this is gettin pathedic.
braves#1
apparently.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Oct 9, 2009 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions
There are things you can look at: LD%, K rates, % of breaking balls he chases, pop-up rates, etc…it’s all there and nobody has come forward to prove that KJ does this more than anyone else, or even more than he has in the past…
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Oct 9, 2009 10:05 AM EDT up reply actions
Sure there is.
There are these awesome things called statistics that show infield fly rate and out-of-zone swing rate. Johnson has, if anything, improved in these categories. And if “personal issues” get Prado a pass, a legitimate wrist injury should certainly do the same for Johnson.
Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt
by MichaelProcton on Oct 9, 2009 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions
hitting .229 over an entirely healthy season isn’t proof that he was popping up or chasing curves away?
Being good two years ago means no matter how bad you suck this year people will blindly defend you?
making lots of unproductive outs doesn’t mean your bad?
i guess i don’t get baseball then
No, it isn’t really.
No it doesn’t.
No it doesn’t.
I guess not.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Oct 9, 2009 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions
whoa there
I don’t think anyone wants to see Prado’s bat at third full time, I think this is the point in your KJ arguments where you begin to lose a little bit of distinction between potential and production.
No matter how you twist the numbers, the slash stats, or the concept of hitters being lucky you have to concede that Martin Prado was better this year than Kelly Johnson this year. Then you come to the argument of losing Kelly’s potential, potential which all but disappeared this year.
My point is there isn’t any sense in waiting for a (potentially) marginally better player who’s lost his stride try and find it when you’ve got a more than capable player ready to fill the role immediately waiting in the wings. Especially when the latter player is much more versatile and affordable.
Agreed on the versatility aspect. But here is my major issue with the whole KJ vs Prado deal.
I posted the numbers above, but I will try to express my thoughts here…
1. Prado had as many bad ABs (with almost as bad production) as KJ this year, yet people don’t even know that. Prado’s mid-july through mid Sept were about as bad as KJ’s May-June. Why do people want to throw KJ under the bus when Prado was equally bad for equally as long?
2. Prado has roughly 700 career ABs with mixed production. Overall, he has a great line, but he has been just as streaky as KJ at times. We don’t truly know what the real, year-in year-out Prado will be like. Meanwhile, KJ has two VERY good years (with some cold streaks, no doubt) in which he was a top 3 offensive 2B (based on slash stats, not advanced stats). Why are we so eager to give the reigns to a guy who is still more or less a wild card?
3. If the players are equal in talent, Prado is the easy answer due to the contract of KJ. But, I don’t think that we can say that they are equal yet. Prado is definitely less of a defensive talent than KJ, and his bat has proven to be streaky as well. The question is how great is this difference? If it is marginal, then there is no reason to keep both…if it is as large as I think it is, we could end up making a BIG mistake.
4. If KJ is truly the KJ of May-June 2009, I say get rid of him. But, I think the real KJ is the one who was here producing for 2 years at an above average level.
PS…what would be wrong with Prado’s bat at 3rd where he is a defensive asset as opposed to 2B where he is more of a defensive liability? He wouldn’t have KFP numbers at 3B, but he could certainly have Feliz or better numbers…he wouldn’t be in the bottom 3rd of 3B in the league (in terms of offensive production) IMO.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Oct 8, 2009 12:17 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I think you may be underestimating with the measure of KJ and Martins equalities…
1. .822 vs. .692 OPS does not equal “almost as bad production,” no matter what the sample sizes, (KJ’s OPS was near Francouer levels and the difference between the two is that we mercifully had Prado to replace KJ)
2. Prado’s career lines, particularly his best 2 seasons are comparable to, if not better than KJ’s best 2 seasons in every department excluding HR’s. The difference is Prado hasn’t had the same AB’s, or the detrimental slump that Kelly had.
3. Not that you mentioned it in this post, but another argument made for Kelly’s poor season was the inconsistency of his playing time. My response is that Prado over his career has reacted in complete contrast and maximized the chances he has had whenever they’ve come.
To prevent my rambling I still believe that Martin Prado is not only a more complete hitter and player than KJ but he’s the exact type that the team needs, (a table setter who hits consistently in any spot in the order and plays multiple positions.) Where KJ though talented is the opposite.
Re: your 1st point:
Let’s play a game…I am going to post a line, and you tell me what player it belongs to:
Line #1 – .227 .253 .312 .565 (166 PAs) 7 XBH, 5BB, 25Ks
Line #2 – .203 .272 .310 .582 (197 PAs) 16 XBH, 17 BB, 33Ks
And just for fun, I will throw in these two lines from another stretch of this season:
Lines #1 – .247 .321 .438 .759 (82 PAs) 10 XBH, 8BB, 10Ks
Line #2 – .243 .322 .398 .720 (117 PAs) 9 XBH, 10BB, 16Ks
Guess what those lines are and who they belong to.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Oct 8, 2009 9:10 AM EDT up reply actions
Perfect example of a KJ hater…“Who cares if he is good, he sucks!”
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Oct 8, 2009 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions
Well i think KJ and Church are fine players but them combining to make 6+ million in salary for guys that MAY be bench for the year and get a start from time to time is not too bright in my opinion especially when we have more pressing needs and a budget that cannot afford everything. So i wouldn’t say KJ or Church are bums its just the numbers game thats gonna end up bitin them.
braves#1
If Prado is on the bench, he's not starting "from time to time."
He’s starting four days a week, minimum. Church on the other hand, is a two to three games a week guy.
Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt
by MichaelProcton on Oct 8, 2009 10:32 PM EDT up reply actions
How do you know this? Who is to say KJ starts 4 days a week minimum do you have a crystal ball or somethin? If we get a power bat for LF, and Diaz continues to hit like he did this year then where is the time Church will play other than injury? I dont want the Braves to spend $6+ million dollars on ifs and how much playin time they will get.
braves#1
First, I said Prado...
Because of his positional flexibility, he’ll get PT regardless of his starting status. And you’re agreeing with me; Church wouldn’t play much.
Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt
by MichaelProcton on Oct 9, 2009 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions
If we agree on Church then i think he should prolly be non-tendered then, especially if we get another guy to play full time in LF or RF we wouldn’t really need Church except as spot starter to let guys rest or in case of injury but i think we can sign a veteran backup CF or just have Blanco as the backup CF at the fraction of the cost it would be to sign Church.
braves#1
Might wanna check the total season lines while you’re at it.
"At least he didn’t nail the bitchy fat girl from Hell's Kitchen."
www.dropoutproductions.com
Fair enough. Prado, when hot (at least in 2009) was absolutely ridiculous.
Having a BaBIP near or above .400 for nearly a month helps.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Oct 8, 2009 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions
That's just because he's so GOOOOOOD!
Duh.
Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt
by MichaelProcton on Oct 8, 2009 10:33 PM EDT up reply actions
when you and your KJ-haters finish, change the sheets and the supporters will hop in next.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Oct 8, 2009 10:44 PM EDT up reply actions
I really dont see too many KJ haters on here, some from time to time but not too much. I think most has come to the realization that they just like Prado more and they think Prado is a better player. I remember last offseason it was like me and maybe 2 or 3 others on here that said that Prado could handle bein the regular 2B this year and the rest were HUGE KJ supporters like yourself that said no he couldn’t. So now that people have seen Prado bein a starter for “much” of the season they now have switched sides and i cant say i blame them one bit. It doesn’t make them or me a KJ hater.
braves#1
I was with you in the offseason rocky, and this year has done nothing to change my mind.
"At least he didn’t nail the bitchy fat girl from Hell's Kitchen."
www.dropoutproductions.com
There has been quite a bit of KJ-disdain around here.
As far as Prado goes, I was one who thought that he probably can’t be a full-time player. I have softened on that position quite a bit (as evidenced by my support of him being a potential 3B of the future), but I am convinced that KJ is a better 2B.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Oct 9, 2009 12:01 AM EDT up reply actions
*some
Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt
by MichaelProcton on Oct 9, 2009 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions
Thats a good game, let me have a turn
Line #1- .264 .346 .430 .777 AB/K: 1661/359= 22% K rate
Line #2- .307 .360 .451 .810 AB/K: 779/101= 12% K rate
Well look I guess striking out almost twice as frequently makes you better
hmm… I think you know which is which, at some point you have to chalk these arguments up to bias
The knock on KJ is streakiness…I simply pointed out that Prado has been just as streaky.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Oct 8, 2009 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions
GREG NORTON
Are you kidding me? This guy should be hired as the hitting coach. Quite possibly the greatest pinch hitter of all time.
Lenny Harris would like to talk to you.
"At least he didn’t nail the bitchy fat girl from Hell's Kitchen."
www.dropoutproductions.com
Is that the same Lenny Harris who OPSed 654 as a PH for his career?
Just checkin’.
Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt
by MichaelProcton on Oct 8, 2009 10:34 PM EDT up reply actions
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