2010 Player Projections

by jeg on Oct 25, 2009 3:43 PM EDT Comment 25 comments

Can you project stats better than the Bill James Handbook? Project these 13 players statistics for the 2010 season and we will compare them at the end of next season. What is a hit and a miss is somewhat subjective but it will be interesting to see how accurate our projections turn out to be.

For hitters: post BA, OBP, SLUG, HR's, RBI's, AB''s

For pitchers: post ERA, H's, BB's, SO's, IP

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Nice… i will be givin out my list of all these guys maybe later today or tomorrow.

braves#1

by rockybull on Oct 25, 2009 3:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

thats a tough group of players to project.

by jack dein on Oct 25, 2009 4:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah that was kind of the point. I’m sure there will be little accuracy. I’m just interested in comparing an amateur’s accuracy to Bill James’ accuracy.

"Four of us wolves, running around the desert together in Las Vegas, looking for strippers and cocaine..."

by jeg on Oct 25, 2009 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Here is my list:

I never looked these guys up with what Bill James might have projected for them other than seein KJ numbers but that was from the other day, the other ones are from my ownself:

Hitters:

Jay Bruce – .286 AVG, .354 OBP, .528 SLG, 32 HR’s, 88 RBI’s, 586 AB’s – Breakout year.

David Wright – .305 AVG, .385 OBP, .510 SLG, 21 HR’s, 97 RBI’s, 603 AB’s

Adam Jones – .300 AVG, .386 OBP, .518 SLG, 25 HR’s, 93 RBI’s, 594 AB’s – Breakout year.

Stephen Drew – .287 AVG, .330 OBP, .500 SLG, 18 HR’s, 70 RBI’s, 570 AB’s

Adam Lind – .288 AVG, .362 OBP, .523 SLG, 25 HR’s, 99 RBI’s, 594 AB’s

Magglio Ordonez – .275 AVG, .340 OBP, .444 SLG, 15 HR’s, 74 RBI’s, 500 AB’s – Bad season for him.

B.J. Upton – .323 AVG, .415 OBP, .520 SLG, 28 HR’s, 90 RBI’s, 580 AB’s – BREAKOUT.

Kelly Johnson – .256 AVG, .335 OBP, .430 SLG, 14 HR’s, 58 RBI’s, 486 AB’s(Im expecting him to get non-tendered or traded and plays for another team, this will NOT happen if he remains with the Braves cause i dont see him gettin the AB’s with ATL).

Pitchers:

John Lannon – 4.02 ERA, 225 H’s, 80 BB, 104 SO’s, 212 IP

Jair Jurrjens – 3.23 ERA, 215 H’s, 80 BB, 156 SO’s, 215.2 IP

Matt Cain – 3.86 ERA, 216 H’s, 87 BB, 175 SO’s, 215 IP

Ubaldo Jimenez – 2.62 ERA, 187 H’s, 77 BB, 225 SO’s, 218.2 IP – Breakout season.

Oliver Perez – 5.23 ERA, 55 H’s, 50 BB, 58 SO’s, 60 IP(can anybody accurately predict this guy i mean seriously, i have no idea what this guy will do and i doubt James does as well).

Ok there is my list. SLG i had the toughest time figurin out for the hitters. A few breakout players i listed and a few guys regressed. Oliver Perez i have no idea about i dont know what kind of season that guy will put up and KJ it all depends if he gets traded or on another team, i dont think he puts up that line if he stays in ATL i will be the first to say. You guys might wanna take this with a grain of salt as well ;)

braves#1

by rockybull on Oct 25, 2009 5:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

that is a really high average for Bruce, other than that those are some pretty nice guesses

by McCann's the Man on Oct 25, 2009 9:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I thought .286 AVG is realistic for him perhaps we will see. I had a few breakout guys i named i really see Jimenez absolutely takin off this year and i personally see Upton just manhandling the ball this year, they have the potential to do this but im not sure if they will or not but they definately have the potential to though.

braves#1

by rockybull on Oct 26, 2009 12:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

BJ Upton will never be successful with his swing, IMHO.. it has like 15 timing devices it seems like. he drops his hands, taps his foot like he’s doing a dance spins twice and swings

Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?

by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST

by Swo12bv on Oct 26, 2009 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

A few years ago he showed his potential, i think it comes out again this year as well.

braves#1

by rockybull on Oct 26, 2009 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Didn’t adam jones breakout this year?

by yondaime4 on Oct 27, 2009 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

well he was good but these numbers here are BREAKOUT much better than the 09 season stats though.

braves#1

by rockybull on Oct 27, 2009 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bill James has nothing to do with those projections

He just slaps his name on them, throws them in his handbook, and collects a check. He didn’t actually predict anything or have anything to do with the creation of the projection system.

http://www.capitolavenueclub.com/

by PWHjort on Oct 25, 2009 6:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

that’s their title and how their referred to

"Four of us wolves, running around the desert together in Las Vegas, looking for strippers and cocaine..."

by jeg on Oct 25, 2009 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh yeah, not disputing them or trying to cheapen them or anything

Just a point.

http://www.capitolavenueclub.com/

by PWHjort on Oct 25, 2009 6:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

fixed it anyway

"Four of us wolves, running around the desert together in Las Vegas, looking for strippers and cocaine..."

by jeg on Oct 25, 2009 7:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

ive got balls of steel

hohohhohohoh its the offseason, time to rosterbate in public places

by esadb on Oct 25, 2009 6:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Jair Jurrjens:

20-0 1.03 ERA

He won’t walk a single batter and will break the single season strikeout record, while leading the Braves to the best record in MLB and a clean sweep of the 2010 playoffs.

President of Marteeeny's Weeenies: The Official Fan Club for Martin Prado.
WE WANT PRADO AT 2B IN 2010!

by mvhsbball on Oct 25, 2009 6:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Thanks for that

I needed a big belly-deep burst of laughter to start my pathetic week on. +1

by J-Freak on Oct 25, 2009 8:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

how dare you say 1.03 ERA about Jurrjens man the dude is gonna go 30-0 with a 0.00 ERA come on man get it right…

braves#1

by rockybull on Oct 25, 2009 8:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

haha my bad

I figured he’ll have to pitch at Citizens Bank Bandbox at least once and you can bunt a ball over the wall in that stadium.

And its pretty crazy, if our damn offense would get their shit together, 20 wins really isnt out of the question for JJ.

President of Marteeeny's Weeenies: The Official Fan Club for Martin Prado.
WE WANT PRADO AT 2B IN 2010!

by mvhsbball on Oct 25, 2009 11:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

lol good point about Citizens Bank and yeah 20 wins he could have had this year if he got runs like you said.

braves#1

by rockybull on Oct 26, 2009 12:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

hitters

Bruce: .258 avg/.323 OBP/.503 SLG/32 HR/74 RBI/540 AB
Wright: .302 avg/.388 OBP/.485 SLG/19 HR/92 RBI/605 AB
Jones: .291 avg/.346 OBP/.448 SLG/17 HR/66 RBI/505 AB
Drew: .276 avg/.335 OBP/.453 SLG/16 HR/68 RBI/572 AB
Lind: .304 avg/.362 OBP/.506 SLG/26 HR/93 RBI/570 AB
Johnson: .272 avg/.339 OBP/.438 SLG/13 HR/64 RBI/510 AB (different team)
Ordonez: .306 avg/.371 OBP/.445 SLG/11 HR/48 RBI/400 AB
Upton: .273 avg/.368 OBP/.418 SLG/14 HR/65 RBI/576 AB

by McCann's the Man on Oct 26, 2009 12:34 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Bruce .269/.331/.523 33HR, 83RBI, 533AB
Wright .319/.406/.511 18HR, 96RBI, 600AB
Jones .283/.331/.476 23HR, 81RBI, 584AB
Drew .266/.322/.431 17HR, 69RBI, 558AB
Lind .299/.368/.500 26HR, 93RBI, 593AB
Johnson .268/.346/.461 13HR, 57RBI,433AB
Ordonez .279/.349/.459 13HR, 51RBI, 427AB
Upton .255/.330/.409 11HR, 49RBI, 520AB

Lannan 4.42ERA 227H 75BB 93K 213IP
Jurrjens- 3.39ERA 194H 68BB 161K 208IP
Cain- 3.55ERA 197H 78BB 176K 211IP
Jimenez- 3.23 177H 78BB 209K 216IP
Perez- 4.21 173H 99BB 212K 198IP

Mat Gamel is way too cool for double consonants.

by VivaLosBravos on Oct 27, 2009 3:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Jay Bruce – .249/.335/.515, 32, 98, 503
John Lannan – 4.10, 181, 48, 173, 190.0
David Wright – .345/.410/.475, 15, 110, 558
Adam Jones – .277/.363/.502, 22, 67, 488
Jair Jurrjens – 3.91, 215, 53, 165, 210
Stephen Drew – .298/.348/.483, 21, 82, 467
Adam Lind – .291/.367/.558, 38, 121, 513
Kelly Johnson – .267/.357/.452, 21, 62, 552
Magglio Ordonez – .320/.390/.480, 27, 129, 582
B.J. Upton – .275/.361/.430, 18, 71, 575
Matt Cain – 3.62, 218, 78, 189, 216
Ubaldo Jimenez – 2.99, 169, 55, 228, 218
Oliver Perez – 6.31, 130, 75, 70, 100

http://www.capitolavenueclub.com/

by PWHjort on Oct 28, 2009 12:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs