Braves 2009 Season in Review: Chipper Jones
This is going to be a short review of the 2009 season of Atlanta Braves third baseman Chipper Jones. Not because he doesn't deserve a lengthy review, but because it's hard to extrapolate what really happened to Chipper this year. Was it as bad as his 2004 season -- his lowest OPS+ season outside of his rookie year? Maybe. Chipper's OPS+ was one point higher this year (117) than it was in 2004 (116). What was startling about Chipper's '09 campaign was the decline in his power output.
Chipper has a career .541 slugging percentage and in 2009 he posted the worst slugging percentage of his career at .430. That 111 point drop-off from his career number is eclipsed only by the 144 point drop-off from his 2008 slugging percentage of .574. What happened? Why did his power disappear?
While I don't think anyone, even Chipper, definitively has the answer to that question, we can see the decline of his power throughout the year, and from that infer that perhaps the rigors of the long season (his most games played in 6 year) on his now 38-year old body may be catching up to him... but maybe there's something else too...
Slugging by Month for Chipper Jones:
| Month / Year | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 |
| March/April | .508 | .690 | .640 |
| May | .494 | .615 | .600 |
| June | .441 | .552 | .536 |
| July | .494 | .460 | .556 |
| August | .371 | .452 | .582 |
| Sept/Oct | .315 | .612 | .693 |
In previous years Chipper started out with a higher baseline of slugging to begin the season, and even though he declined some throughout the year, he seemed to bounce back at the end. This year he just kept declining throughout the year, which wasn't good since he started out below his career slugging percentage to begin with.
When I look closer at these numbers, and when I take away his September numbers from 2008, what I see is the absence of a real power threat hitting behind Chipper Jones beginning to affect his power. Take September 2008 as an anomaly or a few lucky hits, but every other month since Mark Teixeira left, Chipper has struggled to come close to his career slugging average. This is no knock on Brian McCann, but we all know that McCann, as good as he is, is not really a cleanup hitter, at least not one that pitchers fear.
All season it seemed that Jones was reaching for pitches and swinging at balls outside of his normal zone. This was because he wasn't getting the pitches he's accustomed to getting inside the zone. Combine the lack of a supporting batter hitting behind Chipper with his aging body and slowing swing and perhaps a desire to go outside his strike zone to make things happen and the result is possibly the worst offensive year of Chipper's career in 2009.
This, more than anything, is why the Braves must go out and get a big bat this off-season. This is also something to point to as a large failure of last off-season. What if we had signed Adam Dunn? As many flaws as some say he has, pitchers don't want to face his power. So by signing Dunn or someone like him the Braves would not just be adding a hitter of that caliber, but they'd also be boosting the output that they would likely get from Chipper Jones.

I am excited to be exclusively displaying the work of artist Chris Speakman, who allowed me to use these two prints of Chipper Jones. Speakman is licensed by Major League Baseball to create and sell "1940's propaganda style" limited edition hand made screen-prints on paper. He is currently working on a a series of baseball cards with Topps featuring his art. If you like what you see, head to www.sportspropaganda.com to view more and purchase these prints.
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I think ISO would probably be a better tool for evaluating the difference in power, because Chipper’s average in the 2008 season was pretty clearly affecting his slugging. I’m not saying it didn’t drop off though; it dropped from .210 to .166, by far the worst of his career.
As for Chipper’s plate discipline, his swing % outside of the zone only went up .2% from 15.2 to 15.4. He also swung at 5.5% more pitches in the zone (67.2 to 72.7). However, he did not make contact with as many pitches, inside and outside, as his contact rate dropped 1.4% from 82.7 to 81.3. This is still above his career average, though.
You are right about how many pitches he saw in the strike zone, as he only saw 45.7% in the zone, well below the major league average of 49.3%. For comparison’s sake, Pujols and Howard saw 45%, Teixeira saw 46.2, and Adrian Gonzalez saw 45.2. Pablo Sandoval had the lowest at 40.5%, which is probably a result of his swing % outside the zone (second in the Majors at 41.5%) and the Giants lack of any other competent hitter.
David Eckstein saw the highest percentage, at 55.3%. As a side note, Prado was 8th overall, the highest Atlanta hitter with 250+ PAs.
by acie4mvp on Oct 19, 2009 7:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't know about you guys
But I think the key to returning to the playoffs in 2010 is Chipper. If he returns to form, we’ll be very solid (assuming we bring in a big bat). If Chipper continues to struggle, we’re dead.
President of Marteeeny's Weeenies: The Official Fan Club for Martin Prado.
WE WANT PRADO AT 2B IN 2010!
by mvhsbball on Oct 19, 2009 11:49 PM EDT via mobile reply actions 0 recs
chipper
Chipper needs a solid right handed homerun hitter behind and his numbers will go up . Maybe better then his MVP year .
by ~~banditwolf~~ on Oct 20, 2009 2:23 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I don’t think it had anything to do with who was hitting behind him. The last few months of the year Chipper looked almost like Jeff Francoeur up there with his inability to make contact in the strike zone and taking border line pitches for strikeouts. Chipper claims he wasn’t hurt, but it’s hard to believe he’d experience such a dramatic dropoff from 2008 and even from the first few months of 2009 without something physical gone wrong. I wonder if he has had his eyes checked recently (don’t go McCann’s eye doctor).
by redwards95 on Oct 20, 2009 10:24 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think it does, a somewhat
I’ve been saying it for a while, that as much as I love him, McCann shouldn’t be batting clean-up. Especially toward the end of the year when McCann begins suffering from the fatigue that I claim he does, where Chipper might feel inclined to try and make things happen.
Despite his claims, Chipper was hurt, and everyone knows it. Early in the season, with Infante hurt, and Prado getting the 2B job, there really was no suitable backup for him. Even still, I’d rather Chipper sit when hurt than milk it out, because a limping Chipper is no better than what a placeholder player could do, if not worse.
No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.
by royhobbs on Oct 20, 2009 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What would we rather have – a Chipper Jones who plays 140+ games at a better than league-average level, but not a dominant level or a Chipper who plays 120-ish games at the level we have all come to expect of him?
I think the criticism of Chipper’s missed games caused him to force himself into the lineup, even when it was obvious he needed a few days off.
Personally, I would rather have the oft-injured mega-star than the everyday solid player.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Oct 20, 2009 12:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'd prefer the 120, but not injured...
which would make having full year of either Prado or Infante (or both) on the bench could be a big boost and allow for Chipper to get a day off per week. It might hurt a bit offensively sitting Chipper once a week, and McCann once a week, but it could help develop depth by the end of the year, help pinch hitting by bench players getting regular at bats, and make for a better team down the stretch and possibly in the postseason.
by Mr. Sanchez on Oct 20, 2009 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’d prefer whichever version agrees to play 1B, so ATL can go out and sign Adrian Beltre this offseason.
If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.
by Yakker on Oct 20, 2009 7:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well played.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Oct 20, 2009 9:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Adrian Beltre? Why?
"At least he didn’t nail the bitchy fat girl from Hell's Kitchen."
www.dropoutproductions.com
by cbwilk on Oct 20, 2009 9:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And why would someone think Chipper could play 1B...
the man has already stated his thoughts on the issue (aka It ain’t happenin), and personally the idea of Chipper trying to make scoops in the dirt is downright scary.
by Mr. Sanchez on Oct 21, 2009 9:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Defensive spectrum
C-SS-2B-CF-3B-RF-LF-1B.
And yes, I know Chipper has said he won’t play first—that was the whole point of my joke above.
If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.
by Yakker on Oct 21, 2009 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He’s good, he’s undervalued, and a return to the NL (and out of Safeco) could bring significant offensive upside.
Plus, we’d get to make bloody nut jokes all season long.
If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.
by Yakker on Oct 21, 2009 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I guess…personally I’ve never though much of him and his best seasons were buoyed heavily by steroids.
"At least he didn’t nail the bitchy fat girl from Hell's Kitchen."
www.dropoutproductions.com
by cbwilk on Oct 21, 2009 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Interestingly, fangraphs ran this piece today.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/adrian-beltres-bat-away-from-safeco
If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.
by Yakker on Oct 22, 2009 7:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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