Why the braves shouldn't be scared to trade a pitcher....
by ryan c on Oct 10, 2009 6:54 PM EDT
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PrintIn his own words, Kris talks about becoming comfortable in any pitching role, and his transitions from the minors to the majors. The writing is a little confusing, but it's always a good read when it comes from the actual player. It's pretty obvious when looking at Kris's 1st half and 2nd half splits that the kid figured something out (link to his bio can be found under his picture). As good as our starting pitching has been, it could get better if Kris Medlen were to be in the rotation. Trading one of Lowe, Kawakami, or Vazquez is not as risky as perceived with Kris Medlen able to step in. The kid is going to be something special. Maybe even "Tommy Hanson" special.
http://tinyurl.com/ylmj4dx
This FanPost does not express the views or opinions of Talking Chop.
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I would like to hold onto Vazquez because he is our ace right now. As much as moving Lowe would help us I just don’t see anyone taking on that contract. The only way he gets moved is if we eat some of it. Trading Kawakami isn’t going to hurt. He’s a decent pitcher but is nothing more than a 4 or 5 on a contending team. Trading him would give us the money to resign LaRoach. I think Medlen could be a good starter and if he is added to the rotation he will be the 5th starter.
Ehhh
I’m not convinced that Medlen is that great yet
You say to-mah-to, I say you're retarded.
by alligatorimpersonator on Oct 10, 2009 11:34 PM EDT reply actions
kris medlen vs tommy hanson...
let me say this: tommy hanson is a better pitcher than kris medlen right now, but look at the similarities of these 2s minor league career numbers:
hanson: 2.52 era 1.05 whip 10.7 k/9 22 years old
medlen: 2.42 era 1.08 whip 10.4 k/9 23 years old
obviously, people that rank the prospects of a franchise know what they are doing, but i’m not quite sure what makes these two so much different. tommy hanson pitched a lot more innings than kris medlen, but you must remember that medlen was originally a shortstop converted to a pitcher and for the most part, those guys start in the bullpen.
in the minors….
both pitchers struck out a ton of people
both pitchers walked very few
both pitchers have a full arsenal of pitches
in the majors….
both pitchers struck out a ton of people
both pitchers walk rate decreased as the season went on
both still have a full arsenal of pitches.
it will be interesting to see what happens with this kid’s career
Hansons stuff is unbelievable
Medlens got good stuff too, but it is nowhere near Tommys
hohohhohohoh its the offseason, time to rosterbate in public places
says who?
their minor league numbers say their stuff is about equal. there’s not enough major league evidence to suggest otherwise. it is my personal opinion that kris medlen, one day, will be as good as tommy hanson.
well you are literally the only person who thinks that.
and minor league numbers have nothing to do with “stuff”. Tommy throws harder, has better control and better breaking pitches.
hohohhohohoh its the offseason, time to rosterbate in public places
ok, maybe not literally
but, very few people think that.
hohohhohohoh its the offseason, time to rosterbate in public places
my point....
they faced the same players and basically put up identical stats. tommy’s “stuff” cannot be that much better than kris’s. i guess kris locates his pitches better. so does that mean ted lilly has better stuff than greg maddux did? man, stuff is weird.
tommy, historically, does not have better control and has been labeled “effectively wild”.
http://thebaseballcube.com/players/H/Thomas-Hanson.shtml
kris on the other hand, has had good control and pinpoint accuracy at every level, except for the first half of his major league stint.
http://thebaseballcube.com/players/M/Kris-Medlen.shtml
scouts know best
and scouts say tommy will be an all-star starter and they say kris may have to end up in the pen.
hohohhohohoh its the offseason, time to rosterbate in public places
Scouts
have been wrong before. FOs rely on scouts because they tend to be right more often than not, but they’re not infallible. How else do you explain someone like Johan Santana not being deemed good enough to protect with a 40 man roster spot? We all know how THAT rule 5 pick turned out…
Or, to use a case closer to home...
The scouts always raved about Javier Vazquez’s stuff and he was projected to be an ace. Until he finally figured something out this year with us, he’s bounced around with several teams never really proving to be much more than a number 3 who inexplicably had high strikeout numbers. Or rather, it was inexplicable how he could have filthy stuff, rack up strikeouts, and still suck as much as he did. The bottom line is scouting is an art form, not an exact science, and there’s a lot of room for error in there.
JV does have a losing or near losing career record…damn those scouts and their inaccuracies!
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Oct 12, 2009 12:22 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm not sure if that was sarcasm...
But he’s only 3 games over .500 for his career. Which means, since he went 15-10 for us this year, he was a career losing pitcher when we got him. He does have 7 winning seasons to only 5 losing seasons, but he tends to lose by more than he wins, as he has a couple of winning seasons that are one game over .500. He also has a career ERA of 4.19, WAY behind the 2.87 mark he gave us this year.
Yes, for a good long while he wasn’t living up to his ace billing. Thus far his ace year with us is the exception, not the rule.
Like I said, he is a loser.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Oct 12, 2009 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah let’s completely ignore the terrible defenses and home ball parks he’s put up with, not to mention playing with montreal for a good bit
by McCann's the Man on Oct 12, 2009 7:07 PM EDT up reply actions
So every defense he’s ever played behind has been horrid? Arizona New York Montreal and Chicago? I find it a bit far-fetched that every team he’s played for was crappy defensively. The law of averages says at the worst one or two of them were league average.
Not that it matters- in 2001 he went 16-11 for Montreal (the closest he came to ace status until now) with what was a somewhat below league average defense. In 2002 that defense actually got better, yet he regressed to 10-13, his strikeouts went down, and his ERA went up a half a run. You can’t blame defense for what seems, according to all the evidence, to be a case of a guy that was beating himself up mentally. External factors do not have a consistent pattern of causation on his numbers.
As much as I’m opposed to the trade rumors involving him, there is that small part of me that wonders if the pendulum won’t swing back again next year and shaft us.
I’m not saying it explains everything but Vazquez has been plagued by these things in addition to run support at various times in his career. I don’t disagree with the notion that he’s underachieved but the guy has consistently posted tremendous tra, fip, etc which help measure the talent of a pitcher yet the era and w-l results have not followed
by McCann's the Man on Oct 12, 2009 10:08 PM EDT up reply actions
No competent fan should put much stock in W-L anyway, as that is a function of team and not pitcher. Wins are pure luck. However, his ERA and strikeouts have see-sawed from year to year over his career, and those are much more in his control than W-L.
I honestly think his problems have been mental- I think Ozzie’s comments late last year unsettled him a bit, and in an attempt to try to prove him wrong he overthought that next outing and probably overthrew. Whatever he’s figured out since arriving in Atlanta, I hope he maintains it next year. But until we get to the ASB next year I’ll still have that little knot in the pit of my stomach somewhere that he’ll seesaw back again…
Yeah pretty much.
Think about it. Go back to games like Anthony Reyes facing 28 batters in a game, giving up only the solo homer to Jim Thome, and losing the game because his offense got shutout. It’s not Reyes’ fault no one scored behind him.
Examples of this abound for the Braves- no offense is why Jurrjens only won 14 games instead of 17+, and high offense is how Derek Lowe swindled his way to 15 wins. A pitcher cannot control whether he’s going to win or lose except in those cases where he gets blasted early, but even then sometimes he is saved by a no-decision. About 95% of their win-loss record is out of a pitcher’s control. There are plenty of games for most pitchers on every team where they probably pitched well enough for a win, but got saddled with a loss thanks to inadequate offense. W-L should be assigned to an offensive squad collectively; it’s not really a pitching stat. Ks, ERA and WHIP are the most common stats for measuring a pitcher’s true performance, and there are even more sophisticated stats these days that try to quantify everything further.
Wins don’t serve to do much more than unfairly tip the Cy Young voting; the voters love big win totals, which is why it has been mentioned in the media lately that “either Chris Carpenter or Adam Wainwright will likely take home NL Cy Young Award honors.” Which is bunk, because Lincecum has bested both of them but doesn’t have the wins because he was on a lesser offensive club. Dan Haren would have been right behind him if not for a bit of a late season fade- he has the best WHIP and K/BB ratio of anyone in the running, but his ERA inflated to 3.14 in the final month.
Actually, yeah they are. Think about this. A pitcher gives up 5 runs in 5 innings, but his team scores 7 – that pitcher gets a w.
Another pitcher throws a shutout for 9 innings of 1 hit ball. His team then gets beat 1-0 in the 10th inning. He does not get a W.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Oct 13, 2009 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions
yeah, I agree with your concept that a pitcher doesn’t control run support. but i guess i’d use a different term besides luck..i mean a guys ERA is most of the time reflective of his W-L record..like you dont see to many starters with a 3.00 ERA with a horrible W-L record, if you get what im saying at all ha.
No, but how is it a guy like Chris Carpenter, who has excellent credentials, including a miniscule 2.24 ERA has a great 17-4 record (i.e. almost no losses) but a guy like Jurrjens puts up a 2.61 ERA with great peripherals and only goes 14-10 (much less disparity, a lot more bad-luck losses)? Yeah JJ’s win total looks nice, but there’s no way he deserved to get saddled with that many losses. The whole W-L system doesn’t have a leg to stand on.
I agree, i just said its not fair to say its based on ALL luck because it is somewhat reflective on ERA
his career record is 86-83 with a 4.23 ERA, sounds about right to me…
even if not, you can’t use one pitcher out of 300 something to validate your point
Look on a year by year basis though
He only had one “bad” year W-L wise, in 07, plus a couple losing seasons where he was only a game or two under .500 his first couple of seasons in PIT. Just about every other year he’s had a winning record and won at least 14 games.
Jurrjens went 14-10 this year with a 2.60 ERA, as the result of bad luck. In ‘05 Arroyo went 14-10 with a 4.51 ERA. His ERA was 2 runs higher than Jurrjens, a massive difference, but he got backed to a solid record courtesy of Boston’s great offense. Luck. If he pitched for just about any other team his record wouldn’t have been anywhere near that good. He’d have been lucky to be .500 that year. I’m just making the point that all kinds of external factors make your W-L for you, and ERA does NOT help determine it. As I stated above, often their is a correlation between the two, but ERA doesn’t help determine W-L. Theoretically a guy could have a 0.00 ERA and go 10-10 on the year. The offense doesn’t score behind him and robs him of wins, and if said offense gets shut out but the defense gives up an unearned run the pitcher gets saddled with losses.
i get that, i just said i wouldnt say its luck..sayin its pure luck would be like sayin that Vazquez could have 2.00 ERA and be 3-15 and a JoJo Reyes could have 6.00 with a 16-4 and that be reasonable. stuff like that doesn’t happen. so saying W-L record is all luck is not reasonable. there is several variables
Im sure very few people thought that Albert Pujols would be great like he is, and most people thought that Mark Prior would be an Ace on the Cubs or some team right now. Injuries and shit happens. Only time will truly tell. I personally think Hanson will be better but im not gonna say Medlen has no chance to be as good cause there are injuries and sht that happens, you never know lol.
braves#1
HYPINGGGG
His FB tops out a 90. Tommy’s tops out at 97. His CB is pretty good. Tommy’s has hitters knees buckling. He’s an average ML pitcher at best right now. Tommy has just recently been added to synonyms of Jesus. Check ur thesaurus if you don’t believe me…
MATT DIAZ IS THE F**K*NG MAN.
They made me change my signature...
actually...
tommy hanson’s fastball topped out at 95 this year. medlen’s topped out at 94.
Can we count spring training?
Tommy was throwing 97 in spring training. And he can def. throw 97 when he’s airing it out. When did Medlen throw 94?
MATT DIAZ IS THE F**K*NG MAN.
They made me change my signature...
hanson's was a little easier...
not as many games.
i do apologize. i found one game where hanson topped out at 96, not 95.
medlen's 94
not a true 94, but a 94 on the gun.
http://tinyurl.com/yhnwssf
havent found 94 yet....
but here’s 93.
http://tinyurl.com/yfrhxso
i will find 94.
Wait
So we should trade a proven, solid pitcher because Kris Medlen says he can be a starter if the team needs him to be? What is Kris gonna say? Yes, I wanna be a long reliever the rest of my career!
He was inconsistent coming out of the pen and got blasted when he started except for his game vs the DBacks (I was personally at that ballgame, and the Dbacks had half of their lineup out or hurt. Medlen also benefited from a ton of run support). He should be in the pen in 2010 and nothing more.
Frank Wren for GM of the Year.
"Wait, bait and bash." - Jason Heyward's personal philosophy.
by Scott Coleman on Oct 10, 2009 11:55 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
no....
in may/june, he admittedly said he was jittery and overthrowing. in his article, ross got on his ass and he was a different pitcher from then on. here are his month splits. he came down to earth a little in sept/oct, but was great for most part of the second half. remember, he was a rookie. you should cut him some slack his first half of the year.
May 6.28 era 14.1ip 15k 1.326 whip
June 5.91era 10.2ip 10k 1.781 whip
July 2.93 era 15.1 ip 16k 1.435 whip
August 2.35era 15.1 ip 22k 1.174 whip
Sept/Oct 4.50 era 12.0 ip 9 k 1.417 whip
my point was...
he wasnt inconsistent. he was bad the first half and good the 2nd half.
I saw Paranormal Activity.
It was soo scary. Especially at the end when Katie jumps out at u! That was sooo scary.
MATT DIAZ IS THE F**K*NG MAN.
They made me change my signature...
i have no idea why you said that
but i definitely want to see the movie. along with zombieland.
hohohhohohoh its the offseason, time to rosterbate in public places
I am as big of a Medlen fan as the next guy, but there is no way that I would want Kris starting over Vazquez or Kawakami.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Oct 11, 2009 12:13 AM EDT reply actions
i think you misunderstood me...
i’m not campaigning for medlen to be our 5th starter this year. what i was saying is we should not be scared to trade one of our 6 starters (preferably lowe) because kris medlen will be a more than adequate spot starter.
mmm…definately gonna have to agree with justin there
"When life gives you lemons, just say 'F*ck the lemons,' and bail."
by Bravely going forward on Oct 11, 2009 12:41 AM EDT up reply actions
Ok, maybe you misunderstood me too…I would rather not trade any of our pitchers not named Lowe in favor of Medlen starting.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Oct 11, 2009 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions
i feel like rodney dangerfield...
i’m not saying i want medlen to start over anyone. what i’m saying is the braves have a depth in their starting rotation. some people on the ol’ blog have said they would be reluctant to trade any of the 6 starting pitchers and to just keep kawakami as the 6th/spot starter.
kris medlen will do a good job in the pen and he would do a good job with the occasional spot start (just as good as kawakami or at least comparable enough that it’s not worth keeping 6 starters).
this is my point: trading one of lowe, kawakami, or vazquez should not be passed up just because the braves are afraid to give the spot/6th starting job to medlen. his numbers suggest he can do the job.
(and by no means am i advocating the trade of vazquez)
I agree with you...
I’m not for trading any of the 6 starters unless it brings back a solid return that can help the club elsewhere (leadoff, power bat, closer, or a batch of solid prospects), but like you say, we shouldn’t be afraid to do it for the sake of losing our starter injury insurance policy. Medlen could fill that spot just fine if need be imo.
To clarify, not saying Medlen SHOULD be in the rotation, but if injuries hit it won’t bother me. But minor league #s are pretty worthless in this discussion ryan. Sure, Medlen’s #s were similar to Hanson’s, but Chuck James was better than both and no one is advocating him as part of our plans for a pitching staff.
i'm glad you mentioned chuck james...
chuck spends a lot of the offseason in santa rosa beach, florida with one of my buddies so i’ve gotten some inside info on chuck.
1. chuck and jeff francoeur got in a fight on the bus in chuck’s first major league year. chuck, who is a self-admitted “country boy” is not incredibly smart and jeff, in front of the entire team, called him out on it.
2. chuck played the last 2 years with a “numb arm”. he was trying to crack the braves rotation and knew this was his best shot, but he couldnt feel his arm, or his pitches. chuck was actually a very good pitcher for 2 years in the majors. hopefully, chuck recovers fully because he was a great prospect and a great young pitcher. his 9.10 year should be telling to almost any fan that something wasnt right. i mean, his walks went up, ks went down, and hits/9 skyrocketed.
for 2 years, chuck went 22-14, pitching 280 innings with a rock solid 4.00 era. chuck james was/is a good pitcher who had arm trouble. not a good example.
wait, wait, WAIT
…francoeur called SOMEONE ELSE out for being dumb?? REALLY??
"If I have asthma, they won't let me scuba. And if I can’t scuba, then what’s this all been about?? What am I working toward??"
chuck james must have believed in the merit of OBP, gasp
by McCann's the Man on Oct 11, 2009 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Didn’t Medlen pitch out of the pen most of his minor league career? That would make it much easier to put up great numbers ie K/9 and ERA. I think Medlen is a fantastic piece to have but his ceiling is a 4, possibly a poor man’s 3 starter. In other words right in between a MOR and BOR starter, certainly valuable but you’re putting way too much stock into minor league numbers
by McCann's the Man on Oct 11, 2009 11:34 AM EDT reply actions
maybe you're right....
but i see more in medlen than i have seen in a ton of previous “top of the rotation” prospects (excluding hanson). medlen is still learning the art of pitching and has put up great numbers. this kid will only get better.
and i’m not necessarily putting too much stock in milb numbers. my point was, for as similar as their minor league production was, tommy and kris were very far apart on the prospect list. personally, i see medlen as a #2-3 rotation guy when it’s all said and done, even though i’ve been told differently from many people that know more than i do.
There have been tons of guys who have put up fantastic numbers ala medlen without the great scouting report ie ian kennedy and jeremy sowers who then tanked in the starting rotation in the majors. I don’t think Kris will end up like them but I think it’s way too premature to say 2 starter is his ceiling, absolutely everything would have to go right for him. He’s short and small build without excellent secondary stuff, the odds of him being a quality TOR are slim to none. Now he could certainly be a valued member of our SP staff down the road but right now he’s where he should be, the bullpen
by McCann's the Man on Oct 11, 2009 8:31 PM EDT up reply actions
"He’s short and small build without excellent secondary stuff"
where do you get your info? from everything that i’ve read/seen, medlen has 3+ pitches and is close to a 4th. he made the transition in the minors to starter without a dropoff and that’s not easy to do.
i’m trying to be nice here, but every fan post that i have put up, you are one of the first to come on and contradict me, yet you do it with no statistical evidence (except with uggla’s babip, which wasnt even part of the discussion).
and saying the odds are slim to none that he becomes a #2-3 starter is like me saying the odds of freddie freeman becoming albert pujols are slim to none. it’s a ridiculous prediction with no statistical evidence and in no way can it be proven or disproven.
my point is, my opinion is my opinion, and i dont expect for you to agree with it, however dont come on here and post things of your opinion and pass them off as fact, or so close to fact that anyone who disagrees with you is foolish. you dont know his ceiling. you only know what you see and what the scouts have said. medlen could bomb out and be out of the league in a few years, or he could be the ace of the staff for years to come. the point is, it hasnt happened yet.
you cant tell me my opinion is premature. you can tell me that you dont agree with my opinion, but neither you or i are wrong until it happens.
and your example of ian kennedy and jeremy sowers is a lame argument. taking 2 people out of 50,000 minor leaguers to prove your point doesnt work.
you’ve called me out a few times now. i’m calling you out. back up your contradictions with facts. with a pitcher like medlen, who hasnt been a pitcher long enough to get an accurate read, you,me, the scouts, or even the dalia llama himself could be wrong about what he can/can’t do.
Dude, relax. McCann the Mann is right about Medlen. You are the one who is not using statistics to back up your argument – at least, when you say that Medlen has good stuff. K rates in the minor leagues do not equate to “good stuff”.
Everyone I have read or spoken with about Medlen says the same thing – BP arm. He has no serious projection as a starter.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Oct 12, 2009 12:24 AM EDT up reply actions
how does 3+ pitches not equate to good stuff?
http://www.baseball-intellect.com/scouting-kris-medlen/
and that was my point justin. i know my stand on medlen is outlandish, but it’s my opinion and you, mccann the man, or anyone else cant say i’m wrong until it’s played out. you can disagree all you want and that’s fine, but to tell me i’m wrong is childish. you can have your opinion. i can have mine. i think he’s going to be something special one day. you think he’s going to be a bullpen arm. i’m not going to tell you youre wrong because i dont know. i can stand by my opinion and that’s what i’m going to do.
also...
you were the blogger who referred to me as an asshole. please dont assume (as you did previously and are doing again) that my tone is hostile. people can disagree. my stance is firm. my opinion is my own. you can disagree, but to tell me my “opinion” is wrong is, well….wrong.
That’s because you were being one. In fact, you even said that you many come across that way, and I just agreed with your sentiment.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Oct 12, 2009 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions
my comments...your comments....
me:
just want you guys to know…
i might sound brash in my arguing here, so if i’ve offended anyone, i do apologize. i assure you my tone in my arguing is, for most part, light-hearted, although it doesnt seem to come off that way.
you:
You definitely come across as an ass-hole
you:
If you can’t stand the heat, don’t be in the kitchen.
me:
that’s all you got?
i use evidence and you back yourself up with an old cliche? says a lot about the credentials of your posts. the blind squirrel cant find the nut unless he trips over it. that’s better.
you: I guess you win this pissing contest. The fact that I chose not to pursue this should give your self-esteem enough of a boost to get you through until tomorrow.
seriously, you were a jerk, but people such as yourself never see the fault in your own actions. this is now the 2nd time you have jumped in on a discussion as to which i have expressed my opinion on something (and the first one wasnt just an opinion, but proof) and you contradict me. what is mccann the man right about?
and you find one single post that i have told anyone they’re wrong.
It is my opinion that he is joking and not serious. He is just pulling our leg with this entire post. In fact, it is my opinion that he is actually a martian sent here to tamper with our minds and do research and shit like that to take back to the mothership in preparation for the invasion that will come in 2012.
It is impossible for me to be wrong, since this is only my opinion.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Oct 13, 2009 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions
haha exactly, opinions most certainly can be wrong and often are
by McCann's the Man on Oct 13, 2009 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions
opinions cant be wrong...
unless they are proven wrong. better? having fun ganging up? nothing new with you 2.
seriously, what is with you guys. in my post i stated that imo, medlen could be a 2-3 starter b/c he has 3+ pitches and a great track record. this is not THAT INSANE! you should give me a break. it’s not like i said that martin prado is going to be the right handed power bat we need and he will hit 30 homeruns next season. I said my peace. It’s not out of the realm of possibility and you guys keep giving me shit. back off.
justin, you were a jerk.
mccann, you are trying to argue a point that i made when i said that medlen could become a 2-3 starter. you agreed that he could become a 3. so, your argument is on a freakin’ technicality. if it’s a personal vendetta, get over it.
My opinion cant be wrong. It's my opinion. Those who don't like it can piss up a rope.
he wasnt even a starter in the minors until last year.
all his good numbers until 2009 were as a reliever
hohohhohohoh its the offseason, time to rosterbate in public places
And that is fine. You just have to hold yourself to the same standard though – you can’t tell us that we are wrong or try to prove that we are wrong with our opinions. The only difference is that the vast majority (if not all) of the scouts and experts agree with us and not you.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Oct 12, 2009 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Andy Marte anyone? :)
the vast majority (if not all) of the scouts raved about him when he was with the Braves, most said he would be a very good defender with a very good bat, well lets just say that didn’t turn out so great for Mr. Marte. All im sayin is shit happens and you just never know, so nobody is WRONG or RIGHT in this topic, nobody knows who will be better 5 years from now. In my opinion i think Hanson will be but hey he could get hurt, underperform, die, or anything. We just dont know.
braves#1
marte still isn’t out of baseball, obviously it didn’t work out but i think he’s showcased some of the skills that had scouts raving about him and he could still become a major league starter
by McCann's the Man on Oct 12, 2009 7:08 PM EDT up reply actions
He hasn’t done anything much is what i am sayin. Scouts are wrong a good bit as well all im sayin is nobody is right on this opinion no matter what you wanna say. Everyone has an opinion which is great its just not right or wrong at the moment in 5 years or so we will see who was and who wasn’t right.
braves#1
“and your example of ian kennedy and jeremy sowers is a lame argument. taking 2 people out of 50,000 minor leaguers to prove your point doesnt work.”
Honestly I could go find plenty more examples but amazingly I have a life outside of arguing with you and I’d rather not waste it gathering names to prove you wrong.
by McCann's the Man on Oct 12, 2009 8:41 AM EDT up reply actions
and..
i could find many people that disprove your point. the point is they are people, and sometimes they cant be predicted even by the best. i see something in medlen that you dont. does that make me wrong? no.
you see medlen as a low end of the rotation starter. does that make you wrong? no.
it hasnt happened. i dont really care that my opinion is different, but it’s mine and it cant be wrong until it’s proven wrong.
and the argument with uggla was not that prado was better. it was that prado/laroche’s production would outproduce prado/uggla. when you contradicted me, i chose to show you that prado was 2nd in the league in ops. you countered that uggla’s babip was below the norm, which didnt prove anything. i wasnt saying prado was better than uggla. i was saying prado/laroche will produce more than prado/uggla. you chose to prove your point by showing uggla’s babip for one year.
getting off topic but how is Uggla’s BABIP dropoff not revelant? It’s completely relevant when predicting who will be the better player going forward.
Back on topic, honestly you have very little to base your opinion of Medlen being a top of the rotation guy other than what right now amounts to a gut feeling. And while it may not be flat out wrong there is no compelling evidence to suggest he will be in the future, so yeah you can continue to say I can’t “prove” you wrong until Medlen’s development is over but you’ve yet to give a relevant piece of information to prove Medlen has the ability to be a consistent TOR starter which is what you implied. All you’ve said is I can’t prove you wrong
by McCann's the Man on Oct 12, 2009 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions
validating my argument....
1. 3 plus pitches (working on a 4th).
2. good control.
3. incredible track record in the minors even when converted to starter.
back to the other argument: it was never about prado vs. uggla.
the below link suggests that medlen could be a potential #3 starter, so me saying he could be a potential #2 or 3 starter (which is what i said from the first but you argued the “2” side of it rather than seeing that I also said “3”) is not too outlandish.
http://www.baseball-intellect.com/scouting-kris-medlen/
here’s what bleacher report said about him:
“His ceiling isn’t as high as some prospects, but in the worst case scenario, I can see Kris becoming an above-average relief pitcher or a No. 4 starter.” (worst-case scenario)
here’s what bill shanks said about him:
“The Braves have done a great job at developing relief pitchers the last few years, and Kris Medlen might just be the best one in the system. Here’s Medlen’s player profile.”
well i also said he could be a three starter so that we can agree on, i just thought it was ridiculous to say he could be a 2
by McCann's the Man on Oct 12, 2009 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions
you thought it was ridiculous to say he is a #2?
but you think he can be a #3? sounds like arguing for the sake of arguing. what is the average difference between a #2 and a #3 starter? can’t be that much….
TOR or MOR starter? I’d say that constitutes a significant difference especially when his absolute ceiling is a 3 imo
by McCann's the Man on Oct 12, 2009 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions
chop-n-change...
has a new post up. they seem to agree with me. right now, because he’s such a new pitcher, his potential is pretty much immeasurable, but he gives the same basic point that i used to create this fanpost.
are you sure you read the article? they said MOR starter is his potential, what i’ve been saying
by McCann's the Man on Oct 12, 2009 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions
yes...i read the article...
not about his projection. about his potential being immeasurable, and the reason why i wrote this post in the first place. ya know, a mor is a #3.
you do know immeasurale and infinite are not the same thing right?
by McCann's the Man on Oct 12, 2009 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions
damn..
quit trying to dissect and criticize everything the man says, yall know the point he’s trying to make and its not a bad one..
look again…
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Oct 12, 2009 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions
would people have felt the same about Jurrjens...
based on his scouting reports prior to doing the job? I still see people say he’s a 4 pitcher in some of these threads (like the one offering him straight for Nelson Cruz), so just maybe the scouting reports can be wrong. Medlen seems to have pretty effective stuff to me. He hasn’t been consistent with it, but it’s there.
Just because I thought that wouldfairs fair trade does not mean I don’t think he is a good pitcher. I did not ONCE say he was a number four starter
hohohhohohoh its the offseason, time to rosterbate in public places
by esadb on Oct 13, 2009 12:19 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
but...
you did say you didn’t think JJ would hold up and keep pitchin like he has. But yeah your right you didn’t say he was a number 4 you just said most scouts thought of him as a number 4 when he was in the minors.
braves#1
i think he can be a solid number 2
just not an ace, like he was this year.
hohohhohohoh its the offseason, time to rosterbate in public places
another opinion from prospect corner...
Kris Medlen – Medlen has been very good as both a relief pitcher and a starter.
Comparable pitcher: Adam Wainwright
Projection: Great relief pitcher, or good #3 starter.
“and saying the odds are slim to none that he becomes a #2-3 starter is like me saying the odds of freddie freeman becoming albert pujols are slim to none. it’s a ridiculous prediction with no statistical evidence and in no way can it be proven or disproven.”
Not even close to the same thing. If you seriously believe the chances of Medlen becoming a #2 are greater than slim then i don’t even know what to say. Every scouting report even the braves own scouts have proven that they believe his ceiling is much lower than that judging by their use of him in the minors. And you may use stats all you want but you never give them any context making your insight a lot less useful. Like here you disregarded that a large percentage of Medlen’s career has been out of the pen thus better rate stats and when comparing Uggla and Prado you ignored Uggla’s BABIP discrepency because it went against what you’re saying. When you make an outlandish claim like Kris Medlen will be a 2 starter down the road or at least has the potential to be I don’t need to prove anything because 99% of people will agree with me, the burden of proof rests with you and in this case minor league numbers will not suffice as proof
by McCann's the Man on Oct 12, 2009 8:46 AM EDT up reply actions
i didnt disregard that about medlen...
i actually wrote about that in one of my first posts. do you honestly think i care that 99% of the people in the baseball world will agree with you? with all of my zany ideas that i have had before, you should know better.
the reason i use minor league numbers: it’s the only proof that is out there right now. the rest is speculation.
regarding the uggla/prado argument: i’ve said this before, would you like me to remind you of the original argument? it’s still up….
i dont mind you disagreeing….that’s what a blog is about. but telling someone they’re “wrong” on an opinion is foolish.
i just wanna say
that i respect ryan c, if only bc he bothered to answer every bit of criticism AND without getting pissy…kudos, ryan
"If I have asthma, they won't let me scuba. And if I can’t scuba, then what’s this all been about?? What am I working toward??"
thanks...
although i dont know if that was a compliment, but i’ll take it. on my last post, i realized that sarcasm doesnt necessarily come across when typing and can be mistaken for downright assholishness (which is what someone called me).
If we are talking about trading pitchers and that Medlen is really good how bout a Medlen Gamel swap?
by bbxxj on Oct 11, 2009 9:27 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
would be a fair swap imo and help both clubs, Gamel could just play a little bit at 1B, 3B, and LF next year and then if Chipper retires he can take over 3B permanently. His glove is not nearly as bad as people make it out to be at 3B as well, though his bat doesn’t play nearly as well at either first or left field. I guess it depends on when you think Chipper will retire, if you think next season is his last then you make this deal no question but if you think he’ll play out his contract then Medlen would be more valuable to us
by McCann's the Man on Oct 11, 2009 9:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah Gamel won’t brake MIL’s lineup and Medlen won’t brake our rotation so it could be a nice win for both teams.
Another name to mention as a swap partner for Medlen is Jake Fox as ChC has no room for him at LF or 1B.
by bbxxj on Oct 11, 2009 9:45 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Haha, crap. Break not Brake. I swear I’m not retarded.
by bbxxj on Oct 11, 2009 9:46 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
It’d take a little more to land Fox than Medlen, and where do you play him? Because unlike Gamel the popular opinion of his defense seems very accurate. He needs to be traded to the AL because anytime he puts a glove on he negates everything positive he did at the plate
by McCann's the Man on Oct 11, 2009 9:56 PM EDT up reply actions
That’s true, Gamel is a better defender and MIL needs pitching more so Medlen may be more valuable to them.
by bbxxj on Oct 11, 2009 10:00 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
yeah they’ve said they want two new starters this offseason and they don’t have much to spend so getting Kris would be one way of reaching that goal. Would hate to see Medlen go as I really like him but sometimes you gotta separate emotion from decision making and 3B is a much bigger organizational need than SP.
by McCann's the Man on Oct 11, 2009 10:03 PM EDT up reply actions
I would even send Reyes along if they get a better offer than just Medlen. Gamel could play LF/1B and allow us to sign either a 1B or OF depending on opportunity.
by bbxxj on Oct 11, 2009 10:09 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I don’t think Reyes really changes things, he has really no value at this point. I don’t believe in negative value when you’re making league minimum so please nobody say anything to that extent but Reyes will not make our offer better than it appears with just Medlen or at least not enough to make a difference. If we got Gamel, he could platoon with Diaz in LF (though Diaz should still get a majority of starts, just let Gamel play against some of the tougher righties) and then we re-sign LaRoche as well. Gamel and Diaz would eliminate the need to go out and get a big name OF like i’ve been advocating (esp shin soo choo) but still represents a considerable upgrade for us over Garret Anderson
by McCann's the Man on Oct 11, 2009 10:18 PM EDT up reply actions
there are two things that worry me about Gamel though, a 42% K rate in 61 games and a .377 BABIP but just a .242 BA. The two are related, big time contact issues, so I guess it depends on how you view that 150 PA sample. Fluky or sign of things to come?
by McCann's the Man on Oct 11, 2009 10:22 PM EDT up reply actions
wait
it’s gonna take a helluva lot more than Medlen to get Mat Gamel. Have you seen his minor league numbers? I dont care if he had a bad 1/2 of a rookie season; we’ll be giving up 2+ prospects to get Gamel.
President of Marteeeny's Weeenies: The Official Fan Club for Martin Prado.
WE WANT PRADO AT 2B IN 2010!
by Scott Coleman on Oct 11, 2009 11:21 PM EDT up reply actions
except the opinion of Gamel has dropped considerably the past year to two years. He lit it up for his minor league career but there are now serious concerns about his major league ability because the popular opinion is he can’t stick at third but his bat doesn’t play above average elsewhere
by McCann's the Man on Oct 12, 2009 8:37 AM EDT up reply actions
His bat probably plays anywhere
If the standard is a trade that helps both teams, then there are guys who are going to be minor league free agents that could help the Braves.
Fox has no defensive abilities. He is destined to be an awesome DH somewhere.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Oct 12, 2009 12:25 AM EDT up reply actions
i didnt intend..
for mass rosterbating on this post. if i get busted by the rosterbating police, you guys are going down with me.
honestly i took this post as a view of Medlen’s value to the team and I think the trade angle is perfectly valid here because part of Medlen’s value is directly tied to him being a cheap, mlb ready SP prospect. Examining the types of players we could return seems an appropriate way to gauge this value so if it’s “rosterbating” then sorry it’s not in the other post but i believe it’s perfectly valid in this discussion
by McCann's the Man on Oct 11, 2009 10:50 PM EDT up reply actions
then again...
Medlen is a cheap, quality pitcher. For a team with cash limitations, that makes him valuable not just as a trade piece, but also for the big club itself since he can be a quality reliever, or spot starter, and cost cheap. We need more players paid below their value (Hanson, Jurrjens, Heyward, etc) to help open the wallet for other positions of need.
The more I think about it, a lot of this discussion regarding Medlen is pretty moot, since he’s still very young and has had limited exposure at the Major League level. He can pretty much control his own destiny at this point, assuming he is given the chance again, and until we get to see more of what he can do, it doesn’t make sense to argue over his value down the road, because, based on what he’s shown us so far, we can’t judge that with much confidence.
"When life gives you lemons, just say 'F*ck the lemons,' and bail."
by Bravely going forward on Oct 11, 2009 11:58 PM EDT reply actions
i think....
that the author of any post should have a cap on how many times they can comment WITHIN the post. Criminy.
??
he shouldnt be able to defend himself?
you know, you dont have to read it…
"If I have asthma, they won't let me scuba. And if I can’t scuba, then what’s this all been about?? What am I working toward??"
I hadn’t looked at this post because I was busy out of town all weekend, so I didn’t want to dive into this huge thread, but you guys did a great job of internet arguing here. Nobody got too out of hand and even the disagreements were handled with logic. Well played TCers, well played.
"At least he didn’t nail the bitchy fat girl from Hell's Kitchen."
www.dropoutproductions.com
ummm.... did you read the post?
i disagree…. it seemed like it was a personal novel of defense towards the same two people
Maybe Medlen could close?
…just a thought. He has a high K rate, and doesn’t walk many people (aside from his major league debut, anyway). In relief stints, I bet he could eek out a little more velocity if he needed to.
Holy cow
130 comments? Nice work!
President of Marteeeny's Weeenies: The Official Fan Club for Martin Prado.
WE WANT PRADO AT 2B IN 2010!
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