Wait. What exactly is Wren's plan?

by rocket8188 on Jan 9, 2009 4:38 AM EST Comment 43 comments

Are we competing or are we rebuilding? Or is he letting the market dictating to him what to do? Is he saving money for next offseason? Is going to wait until Hanson and Heyward are big league ready? Is he going to let Chip play out his final years or a horrible team? Is he going to let Chipper go? Maybe there is an elite prospect in 2010 draft. I don't know anymore. My head hurts.

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if you haven’t noticed… we are in full tailspin. We are a 2 day horseback ride from rebuilding, and a patriot missile ride from contending.

To Contend we would need to do the following:
Sign Lower 3/45
Sign Kawa 3/24
Trade for Nady(5.3m)/Swisher(5.1M) or Sign Dunn 2/24/Abreu2/20
Sign AJ to League Min (400,000)
Sign Glavine to Incentive Laden deal 1/3 or Not sign him at all
Total of $32.4 Mil (That is with Nady/Swisher), $37-39 mil if signed Dunn/Abreu

Saying that, our chances to actually win a FA is bothersom but have been very aggressive with both Low and Kawa. If we just added the 2/3 Pitchers in Lowe/Kawa/Glavine and go with AJ/B jones/Diaz in LF we should compete and be around or above .500 baseball. I have said it before on a post regarding Dunn and what his bat would bring to the table. If we do lose out on Lowe/Kawa and are out of the race in Mid season I can see a possible Chipper trade to a AL team for kings ransom of talent to retool for 11’/12’. FW keep the $$ and spend it in the up coming draft.

Though the Braves IMO will probable go out and make some trades. Chipper has said this acouple times recent in a Sporting News article where braves can’t attract top FA anyone as they once did. And the only way the get thoughs players is to force through a trade. That sounds sad but very true since we are not winning anymore.

Pitching is what wins championships and the 14 division titles in a row. FW has a tough road ahead of him but still he can pull this off through some smart trades and FA sp pickup or two. Let’s hope the next few weeks we can see some additon to this team that will be able to compete in 09 but more important leaving the core baby braves (Heyward,Freeman.Campbell,Gorkys,Rohrbough,Locke,Medlen,Teheran)future alone to develop even brighter in ‘10/’11.

Don’t want to be in FW shoes at the moment.

by Bravofan on Jan 9, 2009 6:22 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

unfortunately apparently Frank Wren is an idiot…. a bunch of people on this blog said it….so it has to be true

/sarcasm

"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."

by Swo12bv on Jan 9, 2009 10:45 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You Know Notihng.

Lumping Hanson (who could be in the Braves rotation out of Spring Training) with Heyward (who would be lucky to get a Septmber call-up in 2010) shows you don’t know much about this franchise. He’s not making bad deals, is what he’s doing.

by ejruiz on Jan 9, 2009 7:07 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Could be.

Where did I mention Hanson with Heyward? Hanson has a good shot making the rotation out of ST. He would be the addition and further more if he doesn’t he will be primed to get the call up in a month. Hanson is ready this year but not the other which I refer to and don’t make the mistake of trading them for a rental type player.

by Bravofan on Jan 9, 2009 7:21 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

"What exactly is Wren's plan?"

To nail your mom in her heiny-hole.

- Oh, Bobby. -

by sdp on Jan 9, 2009 8:37 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yea, I read that in a press release...

what he plans as an encore is to anally rape our mothers and pour sugar in our gas tanks

by bravesguy311 on Jan 9, 2009 9:15 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+1 for the Clerks reference.

I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.

by Smoltz's Beard on Jan 9, 2009 10:42 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Nice

I like your Alkaline Trio reference there as well

by bravesguy311 on Jan 9, 2009 11:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Favorite band.

I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.

by Smoltz's Beard on Jan 9, 2009 12:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

wren's plan

rocket, ignoring the fucktards on here for a minute, i will converse with you.
i believe the answer to your second question is “yes”, wren is letting the market dictate to him. That is why furcal screwed him. That is why he tried to lowball Smoltz. He’s a businessman, but i don’t think he has a good baseball mind.
Look at chipper’s comments in the AJC. it seems inevitable that chipper will be traded by year’s end. Every GM knows that, so i don’t know if we’ll get anything for him. We can get a lot if there is a bidding war, but wren doesn’t seem savvy enough in his dealings with other clubs to get away with a good deal.
it’s sad because we have some of the pieces in place to win now, but wren failed to add anything significant to the team. This, and he’s managed to piss off the most loyal of all braves (chipper and smoltz). I’m afraid any acquisitions now will be too little, too late.

by Lee-Roy Jenkins on Jan 9, 2009 8:46 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Oh boy, where to start

First, you are seriously mis-informed calling the offer to Smoltz “low-ball”. It has been confirmed that the Braves offer could have reached 2 million more than the Boston offer he accepted had he reached incentives. Whether those incentives were completely reachable is besides the point, his contract last year was 12 million dollars and had he pitched for the Braves this year he would have been paid similar albeit adjusted for the amount of time he was on the field. He might not have liked the guaranteed money part but that doesn’t make it a “low-ball” offer.

Second, I find it hysterical that someone of your ilk has the audacity to “think” let alone judge whether Wren has “good baseball” saavy. What is it that makes you so special that you have more intelligence in these matters than ANYONE in major league baseball?

Last, how exactly has Wren “failed” this off-season? There is no way the Braves could have out-bid the Yankees for AJ, he couldn’t force Towers to accept a disgustingly generous offer for Peavy and he absolutely couldn’t control the outcome of the Furcal situation.

Maybe you should sit down and re-think your positions before you go spouting off with that un-educated mouth of yours.

"Debated ya right not one person agreed with me" by ATLsportsfrk on Dec 27, 2008 6:31 PM EST

by scstrato on Jan 9, 2009 9:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

While I agree with your tone and sentiment...

I disagree with you on the fact that Wren has failed this offseason, due to the simple fact that our needs have not been met yet. Whether it’s his fault or completely out of his control is irrelevant, because the bottom line hasn’t been achieved.

Now, this doesn’t address the fact that he can still rectify the situation and still has good options left. Nor does it address the fact that I have confidence in him to be able to address these needs and commend him for not getting desperate (which is what I fear could happen now), but so far this offseason he’s struck out more often than not.

by soup du jour on Jan 9, 2009 9:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Couldn't agree more

but I see it as a franchise failure, not a Wren failure based on something he’s done. Our needs have not been met, no argument there, but I feel there has been little Wren could have done to change that based on the circumstances.

"Debated ya right not one person agreed with me" by ATLsportsfrk on Dec 27, 2008 6:31 PM EST

by scstrato on Jan 9, 2009 9:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

What disappoints me the most

is that it seems like Atlanta is not the attractive draw for players that used to be. I realize we have not won a division title in three years but I used to feel like players actually wanted to play in Atlanta. The circumstances seem as if the Braves are now being used to drive up a player’s price…at least in the Furcal and Burnett circumstances…and even a little in the Peavy trade.

by bengoodfella on Jan 9, 2009 9:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

But since Maddux, what pitcher has come to the Braves despite receiving higher offers from other teams? I really can’t remember anyone, someone help me out.

by someguy917 on Jan 9, 2009 10:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You know, I want to say that he’s not the only one, but I can’t find a single notable example. I’m willing to bet that there are many transactions that go around that slip under the radar, but probably involving players that aren’t even close to the echelon of Greg Maddux.

No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.

by royhobbs on Jan 9, 2009 10:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If you look at Hudson, I think you can make a case that if he would’ve hit FA instead of getting an extension he would’ve hit higher dollar marks.

I know we signed Jaret Wright when no one else would take him, but then he bolted immediately when the Yankees came calling. So I don’t really have anything there.

by soup du jour on Jan 9, 2009 5:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I can't really think of

another pitcher that has done this. I was not necessarily meaning that players would take less money to come to Atlanta, I mean the team is just not the draw to players it used to be. The Braves have to be in the market, they can’t expect players to take less to come play for them. I am feeling like we are making offers that help set the market for other teams to outbid us.

by bengoodfella on Jan 9, 2009 10:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I’m afraid any acquisitions now will be too little, too late.

There are still several FAs available that can make a difference and any number of trade possibilities still open, not that I’m advocating more trades.

I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.

by Smoltz's Beard on Jan 9, 2009 10:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think there are still some players out there that could make a difference as well and I would not mind if the Braves made a trade but it would have to be for the right player and every team is going to want Hanson/Heyward, so the team won’t make the trade.

by bengoodfella on Jan 9, 2009 10:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Wren's plan

I think Frank Wren is attempting to simultaneously rebuild the Braves and make them younger while still competing. I was upset at first about Smoltz leaving for Boston but once I have heard the terms of the deal and having heard how competitive Smoltz is, it made me wonder why he wanted more guaranteed money rather than trying to reach incentives that could make the contract nearly worth $12 million. Smoltz was my favorite player but I think he has made a semi-impulsive decision to go to Boston. I think he may regret it at some point, just like Glavine would rather have stayed in Atlanta. The difference is that Glavine got a much better offer from the Mets and Smoltz just wanted more guaranteed money.

I am not completely in love with Wren’s plan, mostly because it does not seem to be going too well. The Braves have had some bad luck this offseason and it frustrates me we have all this money to spend and no one to really spend it on at this point. I am hoping over the next couple weeks some things turn for the positive for the Braves.

by bengoodfella on Jan 9, 2009 9:20 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Frank Wren Quote

"We were willing to pay John as much or more than the Red Sox to pitch," Wren said early Thursday evening. "We just weren’t willing to pay him as much as the Red Sox were to not pitch."

by bravesguy311 on Jan 9, 2009 11:52 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Nice

Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball

by Yakker on Jan 9, 2009 1:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Nice but this article says it's untrue

the Braves had a contract on the table for $2 million guaranteed, with a $1 million bonus for being on the active roster and an additional million for every month that he spends on the active roster. On it’s face, McGuirk’s statement is literally true. If Smoltz is on the roster opening day through the entire season, he would receive a total of $9 million ($2 million base, $1 million roster bonus, and $6 million for every month he is on the roster). I think it is fair to say that this is in "the $10 million range, if he were to pitch a full season." However, this ignores the reality that Smoltz is not capable of pitching the entire season.

Rehab will most likely keep Smoltz off the active roster until late-May/early-June according to all the reports that I have seen. Thus, Smoltz’s contract would have maxed out at the $7 million which has been reported in the press. The Red Sox are guaranteeing around $5 million before another $5 million in incentives even kick in, and the incentives appear to activate with lower thresholds that are congruent with Smoltz’s recovery schedule. The difference between the Sox’s and Braves’ offers is $3 million, not $1 million, as McGuirk seems to insinuate—or maybe he thinks $7 million in the $10 million range.

We also have the following quote from GM Frank Wren.

"We were willing to pay John as much or more than the Red Sox to pitch," Wren said early Thursday evening. "We just weren’t willing to pay him as much as the Red Sox were to not pitch."

Again, this is misleading. I think it refers to the fact that the guaranteed bases represent the biggest difference between the two contracts. But, unless the Braves were offering greater marginal incentives than the Red Sox, the statement that the Braves are paying him "as much or more than the Red Sox" to pitch is incorrect. Let’s assume that the Red Sox and the Braves have the same incentive plan on the table ($1 million roster bonus plus $1 million per month); thus, here is what Smoltz will get in millions of dollars according to his time on the roster.

Months Braves Red Sox
0 $2 $5
1 $4 $7
2 $5 $8
3 $6 $9
4 $7 $10
Wren is apparently referring to the first derivative of the incentive schedule. For both teams, the change in the salaries with roster time is identical; however, Smoltz clearly gets more income from the Red Sox when he doesn’t pitch and when he pitches. Being healthy for the Braves wouldn’t get Smoltz up to the salary that he would earn with the Sox. Technically, what Wren said could be true—we don’t know the exact details of the Sox’s incentives—but from Smoltz’s perspective his he still gets more from the Red Sox even if he is healthy. Now, if the Braves had offered $2 million base with $2 million per month pitched, then being healthy for the Braves could get him a salary equivalent to what the Red Sox offered.

Why are the Braves doing this? I’m no PR expert, but I think it’s time for the Braves to scale back the whiny commentary. When the offseason started, I didn’t expect the Braves to have a healthy Smoltz on the roster in 2009 nor to acquire Rafael Furcal. Yet, fans are now up in arms complaining about the failure of the team to get these guys on the roster.

In Furcal’s case the team cried foul over alleged agent misbehavior. It doesn’t matter who is at fault. In both cases the team should have just said, "We tried to acquire a player that we thought would help the team; however, financially we were not willing to meet the salary demands without sacrificing the long-run competitiveness of the team. We wish him well, and we will continue to pursue other avenues to pursue the team." This doesn’t eliminate fan disappointment, but I think the negative effects of the rejection wouldn’t linger in fans’ minds as long as they have because the team engaged in a meaningless blame game.

by robking on Jan 9, 2009 6:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Whoa

First derivatives?? You didn’t need to go all calculus on my a$$, did ya? ;-)

I see what you’re saying, but I guess the way I look at it is to remove the base, because that’s the guaranteed part whether Smoltz pitches or not. That means each contract offers $5M in incentives, and I think that’s how Wren got to the “willing to pay as much to pitch” part of his statement.

My guess is that the “or more” comes from if somehow, miraculously, Smoltz is available earlier in the season, like by late April, in which he gets an extra $1M from the Bravos that wouldn’t be matched by the Red Sox deal, right?

Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball

by Yakker on Jan 9, 2009 8:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

actually

He’s not saying anything, he stole the article directly from sabernomics.

"Debated ya right not one person agreed with me" by ATLsportsfrk on Dec 27, 2008 6:31 PM EST

by scstrato on Jan 10, 2009 12:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I said it was an article at the beginning

So saying I stole it is a bit foolish.

by robking on Jan 10, 2009 8:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Fair enough

Plagiarism: use (a created production) without crediting the source / this is a partial definition, it goes on to further clarify what constitutes theivery, but this specific piece is what applies to your post. I am giving you the benefit of the doubt by assuming you did not know this. You can read more about it by clicking here.

As a side note, I personally have to take JC (the author) to task here. I usually like reading his articles but this one is over-ridden with speculation to make his point. Specifically, this paragraph:

Again, this is misleading. I think it refers to the fact that the guaranteed bases represent the biggest difference between the two contracts. But, unless the Braves were offering greater marginal incentives than the Red Sox, the statement that the Braves are paying him “as much or more than the Red Sox” to pitch is incorrect. Let’s assume that the Red Sox and the Braves have the same incentive plan on the table ($1 million roster bonus plus $1 million per month); thus, here is what Smoltz will get in millions of dollars according to his time on the roster.

There are too many “I think”, “unless” and “let’s assume” for me. The fact is nobody knows what the specific incentives are/were for Smoltz in either contract so to use this as a basis to say unequivocally the Braves are being misleading is a stretch. Just to clarify, it doesn’t make him wrong either … it just makes the analysis speculative and we should take it as such.

"Debated ya right not one person agreed with me" by ATLsportsfrk on Dec 27, 2008 6:31 PM EST

by scstrato on Jan 10, 2009 12:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

easy boy… save ur anger for the trolls who really deserve it… this poor soul didnt do anythign that deserves a reeming…unless he mentions Jon Garland or Ibanez being a good defender

"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."

by Swo12bv on Jan 10, 2009 11:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Wow

I didn’t intend that as a reeming, I even said I was giving him the benefit of the doubt. Was it really that harsh?

"Debated ya right not one person agreed with me" by ATLsportsfrk on Dec 27, 2008 6:31 PM EST

by scstrato on Jan 10, 2009 11:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

no but i could see this turning down a bad road.. u were fine…its qutie possibly i overreacted

"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."

by Swo12bv on Jan 11, 2009 12:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

best defensive shortstop in baseball hahahahahahahahahah (omar visquel)

by mvandonsel on Jan 11, 2009 12:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

ever since u figured out the picture, uve been a google image machine

"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."

by Swo12bv on Jan 11, 2009 1:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

hahaha.

what can I say, I like pictures. If I am annoying let me know, and I will cease and desist.

best defensive shortstop in baseball hahahahahahahahahah (omar visquel)

by mvandonsel on Jan 11, 2009 4:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

no they are always good..it was just a comment on the state of affairs, more or less

"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."

by Swo12bv on Jan 11, 2009 11:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

trying to play nice

When one has responsibility, he is obligated to accept blame for failures and gets credit for merit. On an individual basis, i can see FW’s position. Like scstrato points out, I’m not a GM, but either is anybody else on this site. If we’re to discuss one deal or another, there is an argument on how it can’t be FW’s fault.
My problem is that, on the whole, Frank and the Braves are being used and abused by the rest of the baseball world. With agents using and abusing FW, his own players are criticizing him, and he even threatened to violate the CBA by not dealing with certain agents (again, not that i wouldn’t side with him on this one issue, but it’s illegal). All of this, and he has still failed to make a key signing. How is Frank Wren not responsible for this debacle?
In my job, we say “results, not excuses”. If I don’t produce, the taxpayer will get rid of me. Why not hold him accountable? Of course, I don’t make 6-7 figures, so maybe that’s a different playing field.

by Lee-Roy Jenkins on Jan 9, 2009 2:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Good points

I don’t see the reasoning behind the personal attacks on you.

by robking on Jan 9, 2009 6:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Skim through the recent fanposts.

by Land-Man on Jan 9, 2009 7:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

thanks robking

i can handle the attacks. I admit that i’ve allowed my passion for these topics to allow me to come off as quite abrasive. I got no problems with these guys coming back with their own points.
As you point out, they have been focusing on personal attacks, rather than discussing the substance of the arguments.
Keep talking guys. say what you gotta say. just let some of the nitpicking stop and have real discussions.

by Lee-Roy Jenkins on Jan 9, 2009 8:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

its blatantly untrue… I AM A GM… for a fantasy baseball team

"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."

by Swo12bv on Jan 10, 2009 11:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

ejruiz hit it on the head.Why pay for old talent when you have top caliber young talent coming.The reason Wren has had limited action in the free-agency is that Hanson,Heyward,Tehran,and Shaffer are going to be on the roster in 2009.Hanson needs better coaching to improve,Heyward needs to get his feet wet,Shaffer would have already been here if it were not for his 50 games,and Tehran has nasty stuff(longshot to make the team in 09’) just hoping.

by fatazfoot on Jan 11, 2009 11:08 AM EST reply actions 0 recs