Vazquez: Good Pitcher
by rocket8188 on Jan 8, 2009 6:35 PM EST
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PrintLooking at this page: http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/player/index.php?playerId=801&firstName=Javier&lastName=Vazquez
In his season with his best FIP (2008) of the last four years he had an ERA of 4.67, his highest WHIP, SLUG, and BB totals in three years.
All that tells me is that FIP is a very good theoretical stat. But it is not great at correlating to actual production.
To add to my arguement, a quick fan post from a White Sox fan.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/vazquez-the-frustrator/
Simply a very good pitcher (2 or 3) but not what the Braves needed.
(where's a beer so I can have a victory sip?)
This FanPost does not express the views or opinions of Talking Chop.
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“Simply a very good pitcher (2 or 3) but not what the Braves needed.”
i would argue that the braves did need a very good pitcher.
Considering we gave up very little for him...
I liked the move and still do. He’s moving to an easier league and a more pitcher-friendly park. That alone is probably worth .25 points of ERA assuming he doesn’t fall off a cliff. A guy who throws 225 innings a year with a 4.25 ERA is very valuable, and Vasquez definitely has the stuff to dominate if he can get out of his own way. Look at it this way – he’s almost certainly good for 2 wins above replacement and all we gave up was a second or third tier prospect in Flowers, minor league filler (Lillibridge), and two guys who haven’t yet seen action above the Rookie Ball level. What’s to complain about?
by BraveBronco0121 on Jan 8, 2009 10:35 PM EST reply actions
you're a fucking idiot
what the fuck does ERA mean? it isnt going to get you wins weather you’re in the Ted or coors field. the other guy is pitching in the same park. Vazquez wasn’t an ace in montreal and is isn’t any better now. Gilmore could have been the replacement for chipper (he’’s fucking 19 years old). Flowers is one of the best catcher prospects in the country (somehow, our minor league system knows how to build them-javy lopez, johnny estrada, brian mccann).
you don’t know what the fuck you’re talking about.
by Lee-Roy Jenkins on Jan 9, 2009 3:36 AM EST up reply actions
my point was that Sabermatricians or statheads or whatever skew common sense by throwing numbers out in the air. Its my same argument (and problem) with Teixiera when he was here. You watch the games and you think to yourself “Mark didn’t really do much during that road trip” but you look up and he has an all world ops and had a couple home runs.
Basically my point is (what I credit to Joe Morgan because yeah he says some dumb things but he said this during a telecast a few years ago) use stats to back up an argument instead of formulating an argument from stats. That what certain people have done on this site to defend Wren.
On a couple of other notes:
I thought the Vazquez trade was bad because you could have gotten more for Flowers. Catcher is a premium position (even more than no. 3 starter). Vazquez was not what the Braves needed. Name a team that went deep in the playoffs (that is our goal right?) without a quailty top of the rotation pitcher. I love Jurrjens but he’s 22.
My problem with Wren is he has shown he is incompetent. This team is the fourth best team in the NL East. If all these young pitchers play over their head can this team compete for a division title? I say no. Just my opinion. So yeah I was calling for his job after the Peavy thing. After they wouldn’t get Dunn or Burrell. After the Burnett and Furcal fiasco. Now the Smoltz thing. Then the rumor that Lowe could get 4-5 years at 14 per. There is no defending him now but if he signs Lowe?
Before you talk bad about others
you should get your crap straight first…Johnny Estrada was NOT a Brave’s prospect brought up through our minor leagues. He was acquired in a trade with Philly in 2001.
"Success is not final. Failure is not fatal. It is the courage to continue that counts." - Sir Winston Churchill -
by justincredubil02 on Jan 9, 2009 7:48 AM EST up reply actions
you're right
i’m sorry, i generally try to rely on memory since i’ve actually been watching the braves all these years. i don’t just type back through the internet fact check everything.
I believe you’re correct and we got estrada in the millwood trade. Right?
Ok, i admitted that you are right about one thing, that doesn’t negate my point. Agree?
by Lee-Roy Jenkins on Jan 9, 2009 8:32 AM EST up reply actions
Before you blast me on a skimpy detail, GET YOUR FACTS STRAIGHT
after the trade, estrada was sent to Richmond. I know this because I live in Virginia, so I used to see many of the Braves prior to them moving up to the big club. He played 106 games and hit .328 in 2003 (not 2001).
When I threw him in the group, it was because he was one of the guys I remember seeing in our minor league system. I don’t think you can blame me for crediting our farm system for getting production out of that guy. We didn’t draft him, but he sucked until he went to Richmond.
We’re so far off the point now, that it doesn’t even fucking matter.
Turns out, YOU DON’T KNOW WHAT THE FUCK YOU’RE TALKING ABOUT.
by Lee-Roy Jenkins on Jan 9, 2009 3:53 PM EST up reply actions
wow...
that was an incredibly reasoned response to my completely non-confrontational point…
by BraveBronco0121 on Jan 9, 2009 8:29 AM EST up reply actions
…you don’t know what the fuck you’re talking about.
This coming from the guy who thinks Estrada came up through our minor league system.
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Jan 9, 2009 10:14 AM EST up reply actions
What's with you, dude?
Why is everyone a fag? And why do you hate gays so much? Is it your own latent homosexuality that disgusts you? Why can’t you just disagree with someone without being a hateful, ignorant asshole? Why do you come here if you hate everyone so much? You never have anything positive or constructive to add, so why don’t you just go away?
"…aren’t worthy enough to hold his (Pujols) ass cheeks apart while Playboy models wipe him with thousand dollar bills after he craps out the cure to whatever previously-incurable disease." by royhobbs 1/7/09
since you can't let it go.............
after the trade, estrada was sent to Richmond. I know this because I live in Virginia, so I used to see many of the Braves prior to them moving up to the big club. He played 106 games and hit .328 in 2003 (not 2001).
When I threw him in the group, it was because he was one of the guys I remember seeing in our minor league system. I don’t think you can blame me for crediting our farm system for getting production out of that guy. We didn’t draft him, but he sucked until he went to Richmond.
We’re so far off the point now, that it doesn’t even fucking matter.
Turns out, YOU DON’T KNOW WHAT THE FUCK YOU’RE TALKING ABOUT.
by Lee-Roy Jenkins on Jan 9, 2009 3:52 PM EST up reply actions
Nice try…you already posted once apologizing saying that you were wrong. It’s obvious that now all you’re doing is trying to save face. But yeah, if you want to rely on the 354 ABs he got in our farm system and ignore the 1910 ABs he had in the Phillies farm system be my guest.
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Jan 9, 2009 5:05 PM EST up reply actions
i tried to let it go
Estrada has nothing to do with the argument.
I wouldn’t call the 1 season in Richmond a slam dunk. Trying to factcheck me on it was bullshit too. I even tried to let it go and posted an apology bc it was as important to the argument as spelling and grammar. the reasons I went back and checked it was (1) I knew I had seen Estrada in Richmond AND (2) because you faggots wouldn’t let it go.
rocket stayed in the conversation and made some valid counterpoints. joe, beard and credible just nitpick and point out trivial bullshit. You are the faggot whiners that make all the excuses for Wren’s drastic failures.
by Lee-Roy Jenkins on Jan 9, 2009 5:53 PM EST up reply actions
Well, maybe when you can put together a argument that doesn’t include examples that are completely incorrect or pure speculation I will include myself in your discussion. If I was to get verbally involved with every person on this site that spouted misguided information I wouldn’t have any time to play my video games. What do you expect me to do…argue about statements like this:
Gilmore could have been the replacement for chipper
Jesus Christ, man, I don’t even know where to begin with that.
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Jan 9, 2009 6:00 PM EST up reply actions
more time for video games if you stay on topic
i’ve discussed in several other threads that I understand that none of the prospects are guarantees. gilmore was the best hitter in Danville this past year and showed a lot of promise. He was 19. Who is going to play third base in 2-3 years? Oh wait, we don’t have that long anymore. Maybe Wren understands that Chipper is gone this year, so 3B will have to be filled before Gilmore will be ready.
by Lee-Roy Jenkins on Jan 9, 2009 6:09 PM EST up reply actions
How am I deviating from the topic? I’m bringing up a remark from your prior response that was a main component to your argument that you back with zero factual evidence. And then you come right back and admit that he isn’t a guarantee…which is pretty much my exact point.
I don’t get you. Off to play COD4…
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Jan 9, 2009 7:08 PM EST up reply actions
I wouldn’t say we gave up “very little” for him, 4 prospects, sure none of them are “can’t miss” but what did we get back? Two years of a mid-rotation pitcher on a team that is nowhere close to contending for the playoffs with or without him. Two years from now Vazquez will be a free agent, we won’t have sniffed the playoffs, and we’ll probably be looking to fill a lot of holes in our lineup. If any of those prospects are looking like solid big league contributors, this will have been, IMO, a bad deal.
Given what the Sox gave up Swisher for, I’d think that we would’ve been better off going after him.
Eh...
bottom line is that Flowers is unlikely to stay behind the plate based on his size alone and a lot of scouts have been rather unimpressed with his physical conditioning. He was old for A+ ball (22 last year) and, simply put, 22 year old first basemen that mash A+ pitching aren’t exactly top prospects. And, really, if you want to shun all trades and free agent signings on the basis that we won’t contend this year, we may never contend. I’m not advocating selling the farm or spending Yankeebucks, in fact I’m probably one of the more conservative guys around when it comes to trading minor leaguers, but this was a good move.
by BraveBronco0121 on Jan 9, 2009 8:33 AM EST up reply actions
it's just sad that it's the highlight of the offseason
there are drawbacks to all 4 prospects. None of them were sure things.
The problem is that the ceiling on Vasquez is so low. We just have no expectations for him. he won’t help us win. It’s really just a way of filling a roster spot. He costs too much money. I would have been against Vasquez for that kind of money if he was a free agent.
The prospects were probably going to get traded anyway. I think we could have gotten more for them.
by Lee-Roy Jenkins on Jan 9, 2009 8:56 AM EST up reply actions
I admit I'm a huge mark for TF
Flowers is “old” for A+ ball but I think that goes to the whole “blocked” thing people like to bring up. He’s “blocked” at catcher (and 1B for that matter) so there was no reason to speed him through the system. He came in at 20, finished the Season at the rookie level, spent a year at A ball then a year at A+, then killed in the AFL (where there were AA players in the mix) so it’s not like he’s been stuck at A ball since age 18 or anything.
His OPS has improved substantially each season as has his BB/K.
And then we sent 3 other guys along as part of the deal as well.
It’s just a situation where, IMO, when you’re looking to build from within, you hold on to as many prospects as possible as that increases the odds of one of them hitting. And I just don’t see us competing again until our current crop of A/AA players develop. So I’d rather hold on to as many of them as possible. If we don’t contend over the next two seasons, what’s the point of this deal?
Well...
it’s a deal that improves the major league team pretty significantly. 200+ innings of league-average pitching is better than anything Reyes/Morton/Parr have to offer and it would help save the bullpen from overwork. The bottom line is that it is completely counterproductive to turn down a good deal like the one we got because contention in 2009 is unlikely.
by BraveBronco0121 on Jan 9, 2009 10:45 AM EST up reply actions
There are free agents who could be signed for a comparable amount of money and provide 200 ip if you’re looking for a place filling starter for a couple of years, they might not be quite as good as Vazquez, but they don’t cost any prospects either.
Maybe Derek Lowe...
and I do hope we sign him as well.
But seriously guys, unless Vasquez tanks and Flowers turns into Jim Thome, this deal was good for us. We improved the ML club without trading any of our top minor league talent, what is the issue?
by BraveBronco0121 on Jan 9, 2009 11:21 AM EST up reply actions
Why give up prospects ...
… when you could just sign a free agent for comparable money and get comparable production?
Then there’s no chance at all that you just gave up Jim Thome.
If you don’t mind me asking…what available FA starters are going to give you comparable production with what Vazquez will? And please don’t quote me Wins and Losses.
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Jan 9, 2009 12:37 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed on Lowe, but he’s still available so I don’t see what the fuss is all about.
I’d much rather have Javier than Dempster.
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Jan 9, 2009 12:44 PM EST up reply actions
In terms of a guy who you could sign for a couple of years to eat innings while the team probably isn’t going to be contending anyway? Looper and Garland come to mind.
I’m not saying they’re as good, especially in terms of peripheral stats, just that they could indeed fill that role of “inning eater”.
Like I said before, I don’t think the team has much of a chance at contending over the next two years, so why give up prospects (even mid level ones) for a guy signed on a 2 year deal?
Jesus! There want a pair of rusty scissors into bigjoe's penis!
Lennox, you sir, are just plain cruel!
"…aren’t worthy enough to hold his (Pujols) ass cheeks apart while Playboy models wipe him with thousand dollar bills after he craps out the cure to whatever previously-incurable disease." by royhobbs 1/7/09
+1
I created an account just to +1 this comment. I’m still laughing.
by mattdiaz4life on Jan 10, 2009 12:16 AM EST up reply actions
I asked you for guys of comparably production…those two are just plain awful. If you want to officially throw in the towel, sure sign both of them to multi-year deals. But I feel that while this coming season may be a lost cause, in 2010 we could field a competitive team depending on who we acquire.
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Jan 10, 2009 12:32 PM EST up reply actions
The person I was responding too sold Vazquez as “200+ innings of league-average pitching ", which, yeah, I don’t think Garland or Looper is that far off from. I don’t dispute that Vazquez is a better pitcher, and, yeah, Vazquez has all those nice peripheral stats throughout his career that indicate he should be something more than "league average”. But, end of the day, is he? He just strikes me as a situation where the whole is less than the sum of his parts.
And, yeah, I’m pretty much been waiving the white flag for the next two seasons, obviously if Wren pulls off the other moves to fill needs and the team starts to look like a contender, that’s a different situation and the trade is likely worth it.
see the thing is ur completely right… if u want to find two guys who can eat innings those are too guys who will do that… and nothing else… the only problem is if we want guys to eat innings, we mind as well send Chuck James out there, theoretically he may stilll have upside. plus he only costs 400k opposed to $7M (and thats a lowball probably, for god’s sake Carlos Silva got 4 for 48 last year).
so while ur right these guys suck, but they can eat innings… every team has guys who they can throw in every 5th day to eat innings, mind as well use them and hope they turn into something respectable.
"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."
esp. agree with the stats comment
thanks for the backup. i completely agree. I guess nobody gets their heads out of their asses until 4 am.
Die.
Do me that favor. After reading your post, the least you could do is perish from this Earth and have your ashes shot into space so that when I die I won’t have to be buried in the same planet as your stinking carcus.
+1
Hilarious!
"…aren’t worthy enough to hold his (Pujols) ass cheeks apart while Playboy models wipe him with thousand dollar bills after he craps out the cure to whatever previously-incurable disease." by royhobbs 1/7/09
You're getting pretty pissed, huh?
I don’t blame you, I am as well.
best defensive shortstop in baseball hahahahahahahahahah (omar visquel)
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