Could Dunn be a option?
by Bravofan on Jan 7, 2009 7:03 PM EST
44 comments
Dunn obviously would prefer a contract longer than two years, but at the right salary with an option could make sense.
He would be only 32 when he re-entered the market, presumably in a better economy. At that point, he might be sitting on 390 homers, giving his next team the chance to market his 500th and perhaps even his 600th.
If we were to sign Dunn lets compare our 3-4-5 to the rest of the NL East powers.
Braves vs Phillies vs Mets
3. Chipper Jones vs. Chase Utley vs. David Wright
2008 Stats
CJ = .364 AVG 22 HR 075 RBI 090 BB 061 K .470 OBP .574 SLG OPS 1.044
CU = .292 AVG 33 HR 104 RBI 064 BB 104 K .380 OBP .535 SLG OPS 0.915
DW = .302 AVG 33 HR 124 RBI 094 BB 118 K .390 OBP .534 SLG OPS 0.924
Breakdown
While it appears that David Wright and Chase Utley are superior in the power game it is actually much closer than most people think. Chipper's HR/AB is 19.59 Utley's is 18.39 and Wright's is 18.96. In all other categories Chipper was far and beyond all the other players with a 2/3 K/BB vs. 3.5/2 for Utley and a 1.25/1 for Wright. Also his OBP and his OPS were nearly 100 points higher. Now I know that age is a factor so not speaking long term if I had my choice for ONE SEASON i have to take Chipper Jones here.
4. Adam Dunn vs Ryan Howard vs Carlos Beltran
AD = .236 AVG 40 HR 100 RBI 122 BB 164 K .386 OBP .513 SLG OPS 0.898
RH = .251 AVG 48 HR 146 RBI 081 BB 199 K .339 OBP .533 SLG OPS 0.881
CB = .284 AVG 27 HR 112 RBI 092 BB 096 K .376 OBP .500 SLG OPS 0.876
Looking here at how Equivalent these three players actually are. When it comes to power Beltran is nowhere near the HR threat these guys are but he makes up for it with a higher average doubles and K/BB ratio. The other two are mash it 500 feet or strike out with the major difference being that Dunn will accept more walks thus the higher OBP. Clearly given the choice its a no brainer that You take Ryan Howard 1 because he got off to a horrible start last year and I expect his average to be more around the .275 - .280 range thus helping his OPS and OBP, but Adam Dunn is not very far behind people.
5. Brian McCann vs Raul Ibanez vs Carlos Delgado
Do I really need to spell this one out?
Over all when it comes down to it the Braves (and yes i may be a little biased but I think I produced some good facts here) have the best 3-4-5 in the NL East. Yes I know Chipper will missing his normal 25-40 games in 09' though it would be much easier with Dunn in the 4th spot and slide in a KJ or Escobar and slide everyone else up to be effective line up. To be honest... the Braves would be stupid not to try to sign Dunn... he is a $16-20M/yr player in a normal market and we could potentially get him for $12-14M/yr... and not lose a draft pick for compensation. I dont care he isnt a good fielder... he mashes the ball and will protect Chipper. 2/26 with an option would be Ideal signing for the braves.
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But he bats lefty!
His poor defense will cost more runs that his offense will produce!
He strikes out too much!
He HATES baseball!
+10
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Jan 7, 2009 8:46 PM EST up reply actions
Let me help
"Debated ya right not one person agreed with me" by ATLsportsfrk on Dec 27, 2008 6:31 PM EST
Do people really just constantly ignore defense on this board? And sneer at those that don’t?
That’s so 2005.
Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball
I think it’s just that there is an argument to be made that Dunn’s offense can make up for his terrible defense.
Not to mention, there is a little bit of distrust of some of the defensive metrics out there. The fact remains that any defensive metric you have is, by nature, subjective. It’s hard to divorce +/-, UZR, or UZR/150 from it’s human element. Offensive measures are a little more cut and dry. Did he get a hit, did he not. Did he field the ball in his “zone” as defined by a guy watching the game. Maybe? Maybe not? I mean, look at the fanpost about Kelly Johnson, the discrepancy among the defensive metrics concerning KJ’s ability at 2B is astounding; running the gamut from “slightly above average” to “horrendous.”
So when you look at stats, as most people here do, then it’s easier to shirk off the defensive ones, since they are shrouded in a bit more mystery than, say, OPS+ or BABIP.
Dunn rakes, his defense is bad, but when trying to judge just how bad it is, and, consequently, how good his offense needs to be to make him worth the money, it’s hard to compare apples to apples.
Plus, Dunn gets a lot of sympathy from the mom’s basement stat crowd, because he is so unappreciated by the traditional crowd. I mean, when J.P. Ricciardi runs his mouth and says that Adam Dunn doesn’t like to play baseball, people will stick up for him.
So, in conclusion, accusing people of, “constantly ingor[ing]” defense is probably a little unfair.
Oh yeah, and there are a disproportionately large number of dolts around these days as well.
Dunn
I really think it’s simpler than that. Ask people what “Moneyball” was about, and a fair percentage of them will say OPS and Billy Beane. Well, that’s half right, but also half terribly wrong.
Defense is the new OPS, and good GMs see it very clearly. It’s a shame people here ignore it (and I was referencing the OP who only mentioned defense in an offhand way, as well as a few other early posts in this diary which seemed to sneer at the possibility that Dunn’s defense could mitigate or even neutralize his offensive contributions).
Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball
I don’t think anyone out there isn’t concerned about Dunn’s defense. It’s brutal. He’s a hack in LF.
The issue is that people want a power hitting OF for the Braves next year, and all those available are hacks in LF. Dunn has the best offense, so, it makes sense to get him over anyone else. Garrett Anderson? I think not.
If we’re going to sign a bad defender, might as well get a guy who can rake.
Right?
I’m as big a fan of defense as anybody, but come on, it’s left field. Anybody can play left field. Sure, a terrible left fielder isn’t going to be a positive thing, but it’s much less costly than pretty much any position on the field.
And when you’re talking about a guy who produces at the plate like Dunn does, as long as he doesn’t fall down every time somebody hits the ball to left, it’ll be acceptable.
Wow.
See, this is the sort of stuff I’m talking about. Anybody can play left field? All he has to do is stay upright? Yeesh.
You do realize defensive metrics like UZR are relative to the position, right? That is, Dunn is substantially poorer defensively than even the scrubs who play LF for other teams. He’s not just left-field bad. He’s all-world bad. He’s not just math-team-girl ugly. He’s the ugliest girl in the entire school.
Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball
I hear what you’re saying, but for the kind of offense he puts up, I think most people would be willing to put up with his defense. If you’ve got somebody like Ibanez who’s going to be as bad defensively, but half as productive offensively, then yeah, you might not be willing to put up with the poor defense.
And if the ugliest girl in the school makes up for it with production in other ways, well, a lot of folks would probably be willing to put up with that too. They just might not tell their friends about it.
Well
Actually, the OP actually said " I dont care he isnt a good fielder."
The issue isn’t whether or not to sign a bad fielder with a good bat, or sign the best bat available at LF because all are poor defensively.
The issue is value and win contributions. When you overpay for wins, you put yourself in a hole budget-wise. Atlanta just doesn’t have the budget to make those sort of mistakes. My issue is not with signing Dunn. My issue is with signing Dunn for $12-$14M/year, when he is actually worth closer to $8M when one takes into account his defense.
Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball
We need the old Andruw Jones
I know how much everyone on this board loves it when people post hypothetical situations that are never going to happen, so I thought I would throw out one of my own.
If only we had the old Andruw Jones roaming center field, he could make up for Adam Dunn’s lack of range.
Seriously though, how does Schafer’s defense compare to Andruw -40 (that would be pounds). If we have a strong defensive center fielder, that should make up for some of Dunn’s deficiencies. I’ll leave it to someone else to research the effect of a strong center fielder on a weak left fielder. Hey, I’m lazy and I have lesson plans to write, so I’ll let someone else do the work.
No Dunn
This guy just wouldn’t fit in. We don’t need a power hitter that much. He costs too much and just doesn’t help us in producing wins.
by Lee-Roy Jenkins on Jan 7, 2009 11:49 PM EST reply actions
we dont need a power hitter?… u do realize we had the least productive OF of any team since 1992… thats like 16 years or something… thats a total of 480 OFs in between now and then, that were better than ours. Dunn hit 13 more HR than our OF last year… thats right if u took all the guys that played OF for us they hit 27, Dunn hit 40… we need a power as evidenced by our GM saying i want a power hitter in LF ( i may have paraphrased)
"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."
except...
you guys are forgetting or choosing not to realize that A Dunn bats 230-ish with RISP for his CAREER. he is just like andruw 2007 – INNING KILLER. I dont know about the rest of you, but i still have nightmares about runners on 2nd with A Jones up to bat that year…I dont want to live through that again!
"Success is not final. Failure is not fatal. It is the courage to continue that counts." - Sir Winston Churchill -
by justincredubil02 on Jan 8, 2009 1:15 AM EST up reply actions
The difference between Andruw and Dunn is that Andruw would strikeout 80% of the time, GIDP 19% of the time, and get a hit 1% of the time. Meanwhile, Dunn may only hit .230 but he manages to keep the inning going with his ability to actually take a walk.
In other news, 87% of statistics are made up 50% of the time.
and 90% of the time
you can make them say anything you want…
Oh good Lord, I forgot to capitalize my “Y” in the word “you”. Please accept my humblest apologies, whomever may be offended.
"Success is not final. Failure is not fatal. It is the courage to continue that counts." - Sir Winston Churchill -
by justincredubil02 on Jan 8, 2009 1:45 AM EST up reply actions
thanks
i agree. you can tilt stats to whatever you want. i just don’t think dunn would help us win.
i don’t mean to imply we couldn’t use another stick, but we shouldn’t be so narrow minded to say that our power has to come from the outfield.
Frenchy will bounce back (i have faith).
Chipper, McCann and KJ give us respectable power numbers.
I’m not opposed to signing a free-agent, but i think there are better hitters out there (and possibly for less money).
by Lee-Roy Jenkins on Jan 8, 2009 11:04 AM EST up reply actions
great minds
think alike…
"Success is not final. Failure is not fatal. It is the courage to continue that counts." - Sir Winston Churchill -
by justincredubil02 on Jan 8, 2009 3:18 PM EST up reply actions
the kelly johnson who has a career SLG of .440, has never hit more than 16 homers in a season, and has a career ISO of .166 is going to give us respectable power numbers?
yeesh
BIG JOE SUCK ONE
again, you pick out the stats you like and make yourself out to be an asshole.
he hit from the 2 spot and occasionally led off. I speculate that from a different spot in the order, he could produce more home runs. If not, 15-20 HR is decent.
I say his power numbers are respectable b/c of the 25 doubles, 70 RBI and the fact that he is a second baseman.
by Lee-Roy Jenkins on Jan 8, 2009 7:36 PM EST up reply actions
i didn’t really cherry pick anything…those are pretty much the major numbers for power…what exactly would you like me to quote?
BIG JOE SUCK ONE
no. I mention 3 guys and you pick out the numbers for the weakest of the 3.
My point is that we don’t need to build a Redsox or yankees team that lives and dies by the home run. We can create runs with solid players. In "95, we beat the indians, who had 9 solid sticks in the lineup……why?……because we had pitching, defense, and we knew how to manufacture a run when it was needed.
i don’t want you to quote shit. i want you to shut the fuck up and go to a pirates blog you fucking douchebag.
by Lee-Roy Jenkins on Jan 9, 2009 4:12 AM EST up reply actions
MANUFACTURING RUNS!!!
the AL champion tampa bay rays finished last in the league in sacrifice hits. 2007 world champion boston red sox finished 29th.
BIG JOE SUCK ONE
You do realize my sarcastic comment about statistics was in reference to me pulling numbers out of my ass, don’t you? It wasn’t in response to anything you said.
Anyway, the entire point of my post was that Dunn doesn’t kill innings like Andruw does, mainly because he gets on base a lot (something Andruw doesn’t do).
yeah
i was going along with what you said, not arguing against you! :)
"Success is not final. Failure is not fatal. It is the courage to continue that counts." - Sir Winston Churchill -
by justincredubil02 on Jan 8, 2009 3:18 PM EST up reply actions
*Pushes away and says "get off me!"
:)
"Success is not final. Failure is not fatal. It is the courage to continue that counts." - Sir Winston Churchill -
by justincredubil02 on Jan 8, 2009 7:02 PM EST reply actions
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