Orlando Hudson?
by Falconzfan284 on Jan 25, 2009 6:31 PM EST
70 comments
Metsblog.com said the Braves are trying to acquire Orlando Hudson. Is this true? I wouldn't want Hudson. He is going to get more money than he is worth, he hits for no power, he is not a threat on the base paths, and we have Kelly Johnson. I understand we would probably just move KJ to left field but why waste money on Hudson when we could go spend alittle bit more on somebody useful like Dunn. Anyway the point of this post was to find out if my sources are true and we are making a push at O-dawg, but I would also like to hear people's opinions on the potential signing.
0 recs |
70 comments
|
Email
Print
Comments
10 mil = Hudson
10 mil = Dunn
Dunn + KJ > KJ + Hudson
Hudson would be another Castillo part 2 ..Met fan are just mad that they can’t dumb the albatros of a contract with castillo. Hudson is on the down side for a 2b at his age. He doesn’t fit this club unless you turn around and trade KJ for LF Bat which IMO moving KJ to LF just lower his value as a LF rather than an 2b with upside.
If you are going to trade for a true lead off guy it would be Roberts and not Hudson. Hudson just doesn’t make the team better if he is the only move. Chipper and Mac will probably miss 25+ games and we need that power bat to supplement when they are out. The pitching staff that has been put together will be for NOT if we don’t get a Bat and watch more the same of lossing 1 run games. Just go out and get Dunn for 1/8-10 and sign Ohman 2/7 with AJ to LM and call it an off season….
Wow. Perfect
that is exactly what we need. Dunn for a year then Hanson comes up middle of the year, and takes 5 spot, slowly working his way to the ace. We would be great with Dunn
I like but...
I would love to add Hudson to our team. But only if we can take KJ and package him for a LF bat. If the Braves want to get O=Dawg and move KJ to LF. never mind…Still need a big bat to bat clean up!!
Yunel
Orlando
Chipper
?
Brian McCann
Jeff
Casey
Anderson/Shafer
Pitcher
You’re really on a first name basis with a lot of these guys…
And I like how McCann had to have his last name added.
Also, Escobar leading off wouldn’t work so well.
SWAGGA LIKE BJONES, SWAGGA LIKE BJONES
JOE-BO FOR THE BENCH IN 09
I agree with bigjoe Escobar doesn’t take enough pitches to bat leadoff.
"The only time the Mets win is in the offseason"
by Falconzfan284 on Jan 25, 2009 10:54 PM EST up reply actions
Whats up fellows, good catch on not writing last names, I was a bit lazy when I wrote it. I dont like Escobar leading off but where are you going to put Escobar if Anderson is the leadoff hitter and Orlando does not bat 7th or 8th??
by AlRoBraves95 on Jan 26, 2009 11:34 AM EST up reply actions
i would bat o dawg 7th or 8 in that lineup yunel is the best 2 hitter we have (and we have a lot)…although i dont see the sense in signing o dawg… theres a guy who plays LF and hits pretty well in the 4 hole…
"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."
The Phillies already signd Raul Ibanez...?
"…aren’t worthy enough to hold his (Pujols) ass cheeks apart while Playboy models wipe him with thousand dollar bills after he craps out the cure to whatever previously-incurable disease." by royhobbs 1/7/09
by buzzdeadwax on Jan 26, 2009 12:17 PM EST up reply actions
i was talking about Pat Burrel…. o wait damnit there is no such player left
"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."
Burrell
Hit 5th for the Phillies virtually the entire year.
Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball
someone forgot to put
their sarcasm goggles on…
"Success is not final. Failure is not fatal. It is the courage to continue that counts." - Sir Winston Churchill -
by justincredubil02 on Jan 26, 2009 8:21 PM EST up reply actions
he would help but would be a slight upgrade from KJ, maybe but i have more faith in KJ than Orlando, but if we get him its mostly likely because we’re trading KJ for the big bat.. whoever that might be
but i’d rather just sign a LFer just like yall do
what about this trade on FW desk
does anybody have any info who/what/how much? I’ve heard about this infamous “offer” thats been around for weeks but nothing has come out about it.
Just sign Dunn please…
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
Always taking the easy path
That way leads to the Dark Side of the Force: clogged bases, rally-killing strikeouts, and bad defense.
"…aren’t worthy enough to hold his (Pujols) ass cheeks apart while Playboy models wipe him with thousand dollar bills after he craps out the cure to whatever previously-incurable disease." by royhobbs 1/7/09
by buzzdeadwax on Jan 26, 2009 12:20 PM EST up reply actions
The force is strong with this one…
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Jan 26, 2009 12:36 PM EST up reply actions
Someone really needs to compute the offensive & defensive win numbers for the team of Johnson/Blanco and Johnson/Hudson to see which side really comes out ahead. I’m picking TEAM A, or as I will call them, TEAM TAKE A PITCH.
SWAGGA LIKE BJONES, SWAGGA LIKE BJONES
JOE-BO FOR THE BENCH IN 09
Problem
One of the problems with computing this for the O-Dog side is that his UZR /150s are completely jacked.
Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball
I don't see why
the Braves would trade for Hudson at 2B when it would actually be a downgrade at the position from Johnson. If we are going to downgrade, the Braves might as well just go ahead and pencil in what we have on the roster for LF and keep Johnson at 2B, then we won’t even have to worry about making a trade.
by bengoodfella on Jan 26, 2009 6:16 PM EST up reply actions
Hudson is a free agent. They wouldn’t trade for him.
"The only time the Mets win is in the offseason"
by Falconzfan284 on Jan 26, 2009 6:26 PM EST up reply actions
I knew that
don’t ask me why I put trade, I think I had the mlbtraderumors.com site in my head and just typed trade. Thanks for catching me on that. I am an idiot, especially since I was going to write if we are going to spend money signing free agents I want it to be Dunn. That would have really confused everyone. I stand by my other comments and don’t think we should waste money signing him.
by bengoodfella on Jan 26, 2009 6:30 PM EST up reply actions
Because
Hudson may not be a downgrade, taking into account his defense. My best estimate is that KJ is a 2-win player at 2B, while Hudson may be closer to 3. These are just guesses because, as I mentioned above, UZR gives Hudson a bad rap, IMO.
Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball
Why do you think that is?
I haven’t dedicated much time to learning about the latest stats, even though I find them interesting. I’m wondering what makes you think that the UZR stats are so far off, at least for O. Hudson?
"…aren’t worthy enough to hold his (Pujols) ass cheeks apart while Playboy models wipe him with thousand dollar bills after he craps out the cure to whatever previously-incurable disease." by royhobbs 1/7/09
I am going to ask an even dumber question
what does UZR stand for? I am really not as dumb as that question is I promise. I wonder why those stats are so far off as well.
by bengoodfella on Jan 26, 2009 7:13 PM EST up reply actions
I just have a remedial understanding, but...
Ultimate Zone Rating.
"…aren’t worthy enough to hold his (Pujols) ass cheeks apart while Playboy models wipe him with thousand dollar bills after he craps out the cure to whatever previously-incurable disease." by royhobbs 1/7/09
Dude everytime you post something you don’t need to tell us your not dumb ok.
"The only time the Mets win is in the offseason"
by Falconzfan284 on Jan 26, 2009 7:30 PM EST up reply actions
better to be thought a fool than to open your mouth and remove all doubt
compliments of samuel clemens…
:)
"Success is not final. Failure is not fatal. It is the courage to continue that counts." - Sir Winston Churchill -
by justincredubil02 on Jan 26, 2009 8:23 PM EST up reply actions
For starters +/- rates him +20 as early as 2007, the same year that he had a -2.6 UZR. In 2006 he was +14 and -3.8
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Jan 26, 2009 11:02 PM EST up reply actions
UZR and O-Dawg
I’m really baffled as to why UZR is so down on Hudson. He still does very well with +/-.
I watch a ton of DBs games (live on West Coast). The guy can just flat pick it. Awesome range, strong and accurate arm, great lateral movement, and still a very quick first break. The guy’s got all the tools, and he is just really damn good. I have no idea what his UZR problem is.
Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball
From what I’ve seen I think I’m beginning to lean more towards the +/- system rather than UZR.
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Jan 27, 2009 12:54 PM EST up reply actions
Are the two stats measuring totally different data, or are they just measuring the same data in different ways?
"…aren’t worthy enough to hold his (Pujols) ass cheeks apart while Playboy models wipe him with thousand dollar bills after he craps out the cure to whatever previously-incurable disease." by royhobbs 1/7/09
by buzzdeadwax on Jan 27, 2009 12:59 PM EST up reply actions
Different
Think of +/- as a tally of all the plays a defender makes during the year. For each play you make that someone else in the league does not, you get a +. For every play someone else makes that you don’t, you get a -. At the end of the year, they add it all up.
UZR is different. It’s a little harder to get, but as I understand it, it assigns “zones” to the whole field, and assesses the value of a defense play on a ball hit in that zone (e.g., catching a ball hit over the wall saves more Rs than a pop up; stopping a hard grounder right over the 2nd base bag is more valuable than fielding a 2-hopper).
As SB says below, in some ways +/- is intuitively easier to get. However, I actually like the fact that the plays are weighted in UZR, and that the baseline is not “any other defender”.
Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball
In the case of O-Dawg, how would one weight this play?
I mean, it’s crazy, and in terms of UZR, he’s in a zone probably never expected from a 2B, and in +/- it’s almost robbery to give him just a single + for that.
No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.
Bingo
You hit the nail on the head with this! Neither UZR or +/- are intended to show a players defensive “ability” or “talent”. They are merely an estimation of their defensive “performance”. In other words it would be inaccurate to say – the O-Dawg is one of the games best defensive players. Instead a more accurate statement would be - the O-Dawg had one of the best defensive seasons.
As to your point, this is one of the flaws of just about all defensive metrics – at least in my opinion. From what I know the +/- system doesn’t weight extraordinary plays any greater than above average plays. UZR is obviously more complex but i’m guessing it is similarly deficient in “weighting” this type of play.
"Debated ya right not one person agreed with me" by ATLsportsfrk on Dec 27, 2008 6:31 PM EST
I’ve posted this before, but it’s the best description of how the +/- system works:
Video Scouts at BIS review video of every play of every major league game and record detailed information on each play, such as the location of each batted ball, the speed, the type of hit, etc. Using this in-depth data, we’re able to figure out how each player compares to his peers at his position. How often does Derek Jeter field that softly batted ball located 20 feet to the right of the normal shortstop position, for example, compared to all other major league shortstops?
A player gets credit (a “plus” number) if he makes a play that at least one other player at his position missed during the season, and he loses credit (a “minus” number) if he misses a play that at least one player made. The size of the credit is directly related to how often players make the play. Each play is looked at individually, and a score is given for each play. Sum up all the plays for each player at his position and you get his total plus/minus for the season. A total plus/minus score near zero means the player is average. A score above zero is above average and a negative score is below average. Adam Everett turned in the highest score we’ve had in four years of using the system with a +43 at shortstop in 2006. That means he made 43 more plays than the average MLB shortstop would make.
The above is directly from The Fielding Bible’s website. It seems to me like they do weigh individual plays differently…as evidenced by the part that I put in bold. Does anyone else get that, or am I just reading this wrong?
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Jan 27, 2009 3:11 PM EST up reply actions
I'm showing my naivety here
But in theory, it’ll never happen, but what if every shortstop in the majors let the routine ground ball go right between their legs for base hits for 161 games, but then on the last day, David Eckstein decides to drop his glove, field the ball, and throw it to first. Because throughout the course of the season, NO shortstop had made the similar play, is he then credited with a heavily-weighted +?
Like I imagine that if the above snippet is true, then it means O-Dawg is either credited with a heavily-weighted + for his acrobatic catch that other 2B wouldn’t have been able to make, OR he gets nothing, because he could potentially have been the ONLY 2B to even attempt the play, whether or not he made it.
Am I just plain wrong?
No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.
Hmm...
That’s not how I read the bolded part. I read it as, If you field the grounder four times less than all other SSs, you get a -4. That is, the plus/minus is an additive system (another reason it could be flawed, since it rewards players who, either by luck or by pitching staff, get and convert more opportunities).
But I’m not sure.
Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball
That’s how I initially thought the system worked as well, but after re-reading the explanation for the umpteenth time I might be starting to confuse myself. What do you think they mean by the “size of the credit”?
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Jan 27, 2009 7:46 PM EST up reply actions
Oh yeah
I think you could be right. It’s not +1 or -1 per play. It’s +credit and -credit, where credit is based on how often other fielders make the same play.
Although, does this then mean that a guy could sub into the game in the 8th, make one brilliant play no one else in the league made all year, and wake away with a +29 for the season?
Similarly, could an SS make one awesome play for the season, play exactly average 2B the rest of the year, and post an awesome +/-?
Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball
We’re on the same wavelength as those were very similar questions that I came to ponder.
As far as your second question, they break down the player’s +/- per position so even if he played SS for one game and made an amazing play we’d still be able to see that he was an average 2B when he returned to that position. However, the point you make prior about a guy subbing in, or pretty much all players with small sample sizes, is valid.
I really wish I could catch a glimpse of them compiling someone’s full season tally to be sure…
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Jan 27, 2009 11:52 PM EST up reply actions
My understanding
Correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe UZR would do a better job of valuing an out-of-zone play than +/-. Unlike the old fashioned Range Factor and Zone analyses, which stuck a player with the typical zone around his position, UZR essentially gives extra credit for plays for out of zone, or least it’s supposed to.
Defensive stats will never replace scouting (nothing ever should, IMO), but I do think advanced metrics can help get a better picture of a player’s defensve skills, in the same way that wOBA and OPS+ give better measures of his offensive skills.
Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball
“Defensive stats will never replace scouting”
True. A good scout (or even an observant fan) can find weaknesses in someone’s game – the one caveat is that the sample size must be large enough. If a scout watches a player once or twice, that might have seen the two best (or worst) games of that player’s life.
"…aren’t worthy enough to hold his (Pujols) ass cheeks apart while Playboy models wipe him with thousand dollar bills after he craps out the cure to whatever previously-incurable disease." by royhobbs 1/7/09
exactly i dont have the luxury of seeing the Braves play, often. Especially not the minor leaguers, so all i have to rate players is other people scouting reports and stats. WHile i think effective scouting is the end all be all, i dont have that resource so i must resort to what the nbrs tell me. and then form an opinion….
But (good) scouting is still the most useful tool there is.
"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."
Right
I like to take everything into account. Stats, scouting reports, personal observations, you name it. Although generally, I find myself relying on the stats because they provide league context.
Even if you watch every ATL game for the whole season, and you know exactly which balls KJ can get to and which ones he can’t, you don’t have a knowledge base to compare that to the other 2Bs in the league. Now, professional scouting (not just one guy, but the whole database of a team’s total reports) may solve that problem, but it’s not something that’s publicly accessible.
Thus, systems like UZR and Dewan.
Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball
Thank you
It seems like a simple way to look at defensive stats is, if a guy makes more plays, they are the better defender. For example, if one 2B makes 10 errors in 400 chances for a .975 fielding %, and another guy makes 25 errors in 500 chances for a .950 fielding %, who is more valuable? Obviously, the guy who made 475 plays is better than the guy who only made 390. This would need to be prorated for the number of innings a guy plays, and maybe weighted by ballpark and the GB/FB ratio of that player’s pitching staff. Is this horribly flawed?
"…aren’t worthy enough to hold his (Pujols) ass cheeks apart while Playboy models wipe him with thousand dollar bills after he craps out the cure to whatever previously-incurable disease." by royhobbs 1/7/09
Yes
It is horribly flawed. Fielding percentage has tons of problems. Perhaps most importantly, it doesn’t account for range. For example:
Faster CF gets better jump on outfield FB and almost catches it, but it hits his glove. E8.
Slower CF gets poorer jump on FB, ball drops 10 feet from him. No impact to his “fielding percentage.”
There are other problems too (human judgment in assigning errors, for one), but that’s the big problem with FP%.
Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball
I did a poor job in making my point.
What I meant to ask is, do you think a simple system that incorporates # of plays made (perhaps on a per-inning basis), with adjustments made for ballpark and/or pitching staff GB/FB ratio is too simplistic to be accurate? Or is this already being done? I don’t know how you’d correlate it to wins, but I don’t know that +/- does that anyway.
"…aren’t worthy enough to hold his (Pujols) ass cheeks apart while Playboy models wipe him with thousand dollar bills after he craps out the cure to whatever previously-incurable disease." by royhobbs 1/7/09
Hmmm
OK, I think I understand what you’re getting at…so, ignore errors and just go with straight number of putouts (adjusted for opportunities)?
Well, I think in theory that might be interesting, although I just don’t know that it would be all that accurate in practice. There’s much more to opportunities than GB/FB ratios, or park effects. Also, it still doesn’t tell us anything about range. A putout of a pop fly would get the same credit as catching a sinking liner on the run, right?
Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball
I agree that UZR seems to have the better methodology as far as weighing certain plays differently, but I have some serious issues with the end result in regards to certain players. Maybe that’s just a little bit of my own preconceived notions seeping through…
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Jan 27, 2009 1:56 PM EST up reply actions
Yakker
I agree with you. I am out on the West Coast as well (even spent 2 years in Arizona), I have seen the DBacks play many times, and I think that O-Dawg is good. He does have some freakish injuries though.
best defensive shortstop in baseball hahahahahahahahahah (omar visquel)
Thanks
I’m just thrilled to be having a conversation on here about fielding and not Adam Dunn’s 40 bombs. :-)
Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Jan 27, 2009 11:53 PM EST up reply actions
Oh ok...
I would love to see how that metric measures the difference in those two players.
Sorry, I felt dumb in back to back comments but I will not always say it.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2010 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
