Keith Law Prospect Chat Wrap
Keith Law did a chat with fans on ESPN regarding his top-100 prospects list. Here are the Braves-related nuggets:
Mark (Indy): I read somewhere that one of the reasons Heyward slipped to the Braves in '07 was that opposing teams never pitched to him, so it was tough for scouts to get a good gauge on his ability ... how often does this happen, as it seems any high school coach would be an idiot to pitch to some of these guys?
Keith Law: I don't believe that's true for Heyward, nor is it generally true for top prospects. You see these guys at summer showcases like the Area Code Games or the Under Armour Game, and they face better pitching. Plus scouts are looking at things like athleticism, swing paths, etc. You can see that stuff in BP or workouts.
Cameron (Atlanta): I was a little suprised to see that you ranked Jeff Locke ahead of Julio Teheran(RHP) and Cole Rohrbough(LHP). Do the other two have a higher ceiling?
Keith Law: Teheran missed most of the season after tweaking his shoulder. Rohrbough was also hurt and lost some key development time. Locke was healthy, effective, and clearly projects as a starter.
Brandon (Nashville, TN): Who, in the bottom 50, has the best chance to jump up into the top 10 (or 20) after this year?
Keith Law: There are several candidates but both Dominic Brown and Michael Taylor came to mind right away. Others: Wilmer Flores, Freddie Freeman, Michael Main, Aaron Hicks, and - because I'm stubborn - Chris Nelson.
Jeff (Ann Arbor): Keith, I've read that the Braves first round pick is "protected" and so they do not lose it for signing Derek Lowe. Is this true? What is the rule exactly? And if it is true what would happen if the Braves were to sign another type A free agent such as Adam Dunn? What does this cost them in the draft? I assume the Derek Lowe signing costs them their second round pick. Thanks.
Keith Law: If your pick is top 15 overall, meaning you finished with one of the 15 worst records the previous year, you can not lose your top pick as compensation for a free agent. Dunn wasn't offered arbitration so signing him wouldn't cost them a pick. If they signed Juan Cruz, a type A who was offered arbitration, they would lose their third-round pick (I believe his rating was below Lowe's).
Kevin (GA): I have NINE current and former Braves prospects. FIVE of them are in the Top 50. Simply incredible that they are still as deep as they are.
Keith Law: It really is. They're a scouting machine.
James (LA): I really believe that Jason Heyward is a better hitter than Jeff Francoeur, like, right now this instant.
Keith Law: This is not a stretch.
Okay, who from this site asked that last question? Good stuff from Law, as always.
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41 comments
Comments
Freeman is certainly starting to raise some eyebrows. Strange to see Locke ahead of Rohrbough, I love Cole’s stuff. Teheran is so far away right now, don’t care about him at the moment.
For starting OFs, 90% of them are better than Francoeur.
by TradeAndruw on Jan 22, 2009 9:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
His last comment is quite telling of how far Jeffy has fallen.
Hopefully he’ll rebound this year and we’ll be able to get something positive for him.
by jwrocks on Jan 22, 2009 9:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I say this halfway jokingly, but I’m thinking we should trade Frenchy for a couple single-A arms and let Blanco play right. I’m just kidding, but seriously, at least Blanco would get on base.
by bbxxj on Jan 22, 2009 9:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
lol
that last remark got me goooooood……
I love that this site gets crazy about prospects and the farm system, but I still always take everyone with a grain of salt until they hit the bigs. Salty really burned me, from the prepping, the news, the praise, etc., and he came up and basically sucked a big one. He’s not even in the bigs anymore.
So i’m hoping Heyward’s gonna bust ass i just hope we get to see it at the right time and with no letdown whatsoever.
by traphicg on Jan 22, 2009 10:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
1) Huge difference between a catcher and an outfielder
2) Salty was fine his rookie year with us
3) At Heyward’s age, Salty had lower slash stats, and lower conventional stats
BIG JOE SUCK ONE
by bigjoe on Jan 22, 2009 11:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I still hold out hope for him...
by BraveBronco0121 on Jan 23, 2009 9:05 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Rudy Jaramillo
If anybody can help Salty, RJ can. If Salty doesn’t get trading in ST I think we’ll see marked improvement this year.
"Debated ya right not one person agreed with me" by ATLsportsfrk on Dec 27, 2008 6:31 PM EST
by scstrato on Jan 23, 2009 9:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah I don’t remember Salty being bad. I guess he didn’t set the world on fire but everyone is not Evan Longoria
by rocket8188 on Jan 22, 2009 11:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
well he is maybe the third best C in the Rangers system and probably the 2nd best 1B (I think Chris Davis is a 1B)… ill admit the Rangers have some good catchers but still. he may never play unless he gets traded and it appears his window may be closing quickly
he has yet to post an avg OPS… it seems pretty clear his bat isnt good enough to play at 1B… and we all knew he wouldnt contineu to play C, because of his size and defense…. I dont want to jump the gun… but i have the same feeling about FLowers that i do about Saltalamacchia… its worsened by the fact that FLowers is only a year younger than Salty yet he has yet to play above A ball. Will Flowers’ bat play at 1B? IDK?…
the only thing Salty has going for him is he is only 23… so he has plenty of time to develop into a good player.
"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."
by Swo12bv on Jan 22, 2009 11:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The thing is with these kids, you can’t jerk their playing time around when you bring them up. Look at what Tampa did with Longoria: he came up, started, and didn’t stop playing until he got hurt. Salty? Up and down, inconsistent playing time. He probably should have not been called up to Atlanta in 07 at all…theres the fucking Atlanta rushjob philosophy again. Some guys get stuck in purgatory in AAA, while others skip it altogether with no rhyme or reason.
SWAGGA LIKE BJONES, SWAGGA LIKE BJONES
JOE-BO FOR THE BENCH IN 09
by bigjoe on Jan 22, 2009 11:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Really good stuff there Big Joe. Those are some excellent points.
Another thing about Salty is that I think he could play left field. He’s a very good athlete and I think they even talked about making him an outfielder or a third basemen when they drafted him.
www.dropoutproductions.com
by cbwilk on Jan 23, 2009 12:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think that might have been a ‘bring Salty up and then we can trade his ass before everyone figures out that he’s not gonna stick behind the plate and think his bat’s gotta be better’-rushjob.
by Euruproktos on Jan 23, 2009 12:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Salty? Up and down, inconsistent playing time. He probably should have not been called up to Atlanta in 07 at all…theres the fucking Atlanta rushjob philosophy again.
Kinda reminds me of Joey Devine. Man I wish we had done him right.
by Chopaholic on Jan 23, 2009 12:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re
The thing is with these kids, you can’t jerk their playing time around when you bring them up.
Boy, it’s a good thing we didn’t do that with Frenchy.
by jc25 on Jan 23, 2009 10:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
We probably should have though…sigh. I’m enjoying the era of a corner outfielder with no power and no eye.
SWAGGA LIKE BJONES, SWAGGA LIKE BJONES
JOE-BO FOR THE BENCH IN 09
by bigjoe on Jan 23, 2009 12:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Career ISO: .166
Adam Dunn career ISO: .272
So yeah. No power.
SWAGGA LIKE BJONES, SWAGGA LIKE BJONES
JOE-BO FOR THE BENCH IN 09
by bigjoe on Jan 23, 2009 3:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i dont know if its fair to compare anyone with Adam Dunn when it comes to power…. Frenchy has displayed power at one point in his MLB career… its fair to say he can be a 25 HR guy… which is around avg power…
BTW
what is considered an average ISO, or an above average ISO… 200?
"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."
by Swo12bv on Jan 23, 2009 9:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Last season, the league average was apparently .153…so he’s slightly above league average. But seriously now.
SWAGGA LIKE BJONES, SWAGGA LIKE BJONES
JOE-BO FOR THE BENCH IN 09
by bigjoe on Jan 23, 2009 9:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i wasnt being a jerk… i didnt know what league avg ISO was… what would be considering a good ISO
"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."
by Swo12bv on Jan 23, 2009 10:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
An older article, but it still rings true: http://www.athomeplate.com/iso.shtml
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Jan 24, 2009 12:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
People seem to forget how good he was for us. All they do is bitch about losing Wainwright.
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Jan 24, 2009 12:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
always been a big Drew fan ( i know he can be douschish but i stilll like him)
"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."
by Swo12bv on Jan 24, 2009 2:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
thank you very much
"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."
by Swo12bv on Jan 24, 2009 2:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Didn’t the Rangers draft Justin Smoak? That guy’s supposed to be a pretty lethal 1B bat.
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Jan 23, 2009 9:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ugh
The Rangers were lucky enough to grab him only because the Astros were dumb enough to pass on him. Instead, they picked up Jason Castro, going for “need” instead of “best available.” Castro barely squeaks in on KLaw’s list as the ONLY Astro. Ridiculous.
by jc25 on Jan 23, 2009 10:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I was watching the draft and remember that one of the talking heads would not shut up about how Smoak kept falling down the draft board.
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Jan 23, 2009 11:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I was reading Kevin Goldstein’s live chat at the time; he couldn’t believe it either. That was a really fun read; if he does it again this year I highly recommend it for amusement and insight.
by mattdiaz4life on Jan 23, 2009 3:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Bingo.
That’s what I was thinking of. I was reading that as the draft was going on, and then watched the ESPN coverage later.
Thank you.
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Jan 23, 2009 3:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
As far as Chris Davis goes, he’s at least servicable at 3B. He won’t win any Gold Gloves but he won’t be the worst fielding 3B in the league at least. I’d imagine that the Rangers have an infield like this in mind for the near future:
1B: Smoak
2B: Kinsler
3B: Davis
SS: Andrus
When you put that with guys like Hamilton, Teagarden, and Feliz then you have a very good Rangers team in the very near future.
by bravesfan91 on Jan 23, 2009 11:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Theoretically.
www.dropoutproductions.com
by cbwilk on Jan 23, 2009 11:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I hope the Brewers play Mat Gamel at third either this year or next.
by mattdiaz4life on Jan 23, 2009 3:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He’s pretty ugly at third. Crazy good hitter but pretty ugly at third.
www.dropoutproductions.com
by cbwilk on Jan 23, 2009 3:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That’s exactly the reason for my hope.
by mattdiaz4life on Jan 23, 2009 3:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ryan Braun?
Rays 2009 Slogan: "Come back with your shield or on it"
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Jan 23, 2009 9:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It's been one day
And that last question still makes me laugh. And cry a little.
by jc25 on Jan 23, 2009 10:53 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

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