Community Projection Project : Derek Lowe

Alright, time to switch over to the rotation for a little bit. Derek Lowe needs little introduction here and I don't really feel like writing a lot right now, so I'm going straight to the numbers.

2006 (age 33) : 218 innings pitched, 123/55 K/BB, 14 HR, 3.86 GB/FB, 3.63 ERA

2007 (age 34) : 199 innings pitched, 147/59 K/BB, 20 HR, 3.38 GB/FB, 3.88 ERA

2008 (age 35) : 211 innings pitched, 147/45 K/BB, 14 HR, 2.63 GB/FB, 3.24 ERA

It's pretty obvious just looking at the numbers what Lowe is - a nasty sinkerballer. Certainly doesn't miss a ton of bats, but he demonstrates excellent control and keeps the ball in the dirt. It's worth noting that his 2008 ground ball ratio was the lowest of the past seven seasons and his second consecutive year of decline. Still, 2.6 to 1 is way above average - consider that Tim Hudson, himself a severe ground ball pitcher, has a career average of 2.55 to 1.

CHONE has Lowe down for 171 innings pitched at a 3.71 ERA. I tend to think that this is conservative on the IP, but the ERA looks about right. I would project him for ~185 innings. At a 3.71 ERA, that's good for 41 runs above replacement.

You know the drill now - I want your opinions.