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Community Projection Project : Derek Lowe

Alright, time to switch over to the rotation for a little bit. Derek Lowe needs little introduction here and I don't really feel like writing a lot right now, so I'm going straight to the numbers.

2006 (age 33) : 218 innings pitched, 123/55 K/BB, 14 HR, 3.86 GB/FB, 3.63 ERA

2007 (age 34) : 199 innings pitched, 147/59 K/BB, 20 HR, 3.38 GB/FB, 3.88 ERA

2008 (age 35) : 211 innings pitched, 147/45 K/BB, 14 HR, 2.63 GB/FB, 3.24 ERA

It's pretty obvious just looking at the numbers what Lowe is - a nasty sinkerballer. Certainly doesn't miss a ton of bats, but he demonstrates excellent control and keeps the ball in the dirt. It's worth noting that his 2008 ground ball ratio was the lowest of the past seven seasons and his second consecutive year of decline. Still, 2.6 to 1 is way above average - consider that Tim Hudson, himself a severe ground ball pitcher, has a career average of 2.55 to 1.

CHONE has Lowe down for 171 innings pitched at a 3.71 ERA. I tend to think that this is conservative on the IP, but the ERA looks about right. I would project him for ~185 innings. At a 3.71 ERA, that's good for 41 runs above replacement.

You know the drill now - I want your opinions.

0 recs  |  Comment 11 comments

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I think he wins 30 games.

by TradeAndruw on Jan 22, 2009 9:33 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

171 innings? Thats absurd.

BIG JOE SUCK ONE

by bigjoe on Jan 22, 2009 9:56 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

IP at 206
K% between 6 and 7 or 150 for the season
HR 16

by Heap on Jan 22, 2009 10:37 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

3.4 ERA
2.5 GB/FB

by Heap on Jan 23, 2009 9:38 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

200 IP
140/50 K/BB
15 HR
2.7 GB/FB
3.15 ERA

by Chopaholic on Jan 22, 2009 11:41 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

90 – 220 IP/3.4 FIP
75 – 200 IP/3.65 FIP
60 – 190 IP/3.8 FIP
50 – 180 IP/3.9 FIP
40 – 165 IP/4.0 FIP
25 – 130 IP/4.2 FIP
10 – 50 IP/4.5 FIP

Something like that looks appropriate.

by 17843 on Jan 23, 2009 1:47 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

I'll be a bit conservative I suppose.

190 IP 125/50 K/BB 17HR 3.03 GB/FB ratio and a 3.70 ERA. Which yields an FIP of 3.84. Which is pretty decent, if not super spectacular. I’ll take it though.

by Perrinbar on Jan 23, 2009 4:11 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Alright...

I’m putting him down for 185 innings at a 3.8 ERA. That’s good for 3.8 wins above replacement.

by BraveBronco0121 on Jan 27, 2009 9:37 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

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