FYF
by Chopaholic on Jan 22, 2009 6:24 PM EST
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2005: 70G 257AB .300/.336/.549 14HR 45RBI
2006: 162G 651AB .260/.293/.449 29HR 103RBI
2007: 162G 642AB .293/.338/.444 19HR 105RBI
2008: 155G 599AB .239/.294/.359 11HR 71 RBI
Above we have Jeff Francouer's stat lines from his rookie campaign through last
season's dismal performance. I understand the many of you likely have all of
this memorized, but bear with me.
Although I only started visiting this board last year, I would bet a quarter that many
of you were pretty high on FYF back in 06 and 07. And it seems that the same
people who now want to cut his heart out with a lawnmower have conveniently
forgotten how good he was in the past. Now... one season does not a career make.
Nor does past success indicate future success (See: Andruw Jones, Kevin Millwood).
For whatever reason, Francouer's brain was all crosswired last season. Hopefully he
can get it worked out... whether all by himself or with help from TP. What I'm asking
for from ya'll is a little perspective. I'm willing to let go of last season's abortion and
treat 2009 as what it is: a blank slate. FYF will then write whatever he writes onto it.
On a related note: I've noticed a decidedly negative trend of opinion around here
regarding Terry Pendleton as a hitting coach. Personally I'm reserving judgment
until after this season, and FYF's performance will be a major component of my
opinion in that regard. He was opviously a prolific bat in his career... but is he a
good teacher? Discuss.
This FanPost does not express the views or opinions of Talking Chop.
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To be fair, I never said he was a “great player.” But he certainly has the skill set to be a very good one.
I don’t think you realize just how awful his numbers were last year. I’m too lazy to pull them up at the moment, but he was just about the worst everyday position player in all of baseball.
I saw the same at-bats that you did, and I know a little bit about baseball, too. Yes, I realize how bad his numbers were last season. I know how bad Andruw Jones’s numbers were last season. I also know that he managed to put up some good numbers earlier in his career. There is the possibility that he can turn it around. That same possibility exists for Frenchy.
And no, I’m not looking for an over-under on that possibility.
Andruw had an excuse last season, he was hurt. And in 2007, when he was pretty bad too, he was nowhere near as dire as Francoeur was last season. 6th lowest OPS in the majors last season, and the 2 outfielders above him can at least steal bases.
BIG JOE SUCK ONE
So you’re thinking is that because Frenchy had a tremendously bad year last season, he is done. Finished. Stick a fork in him. Sorry hoss. You can throw stats at me until your arm falls off, you won’t convince me that there is no chance whatsoever that he can’t get things right at the plate.
Baseball is as much a game of guts as it is a game of statistics. Even as far as stats are a predictor of things to come, I’ll match you one-for-one in examples of players who had a bad year, even a really bad year, and came back to have a decent career.
As far as guts go, does Frenchy have them? I don’t know, but his incessant whining last season doesn’t make me think so. We’ll just have to see.
Well, in the 6 years since he was drafted, he hasn’t shown a lick of plate discipline. I don’t think he’s going to suddenly realize “hey, maybe I shouldn’t swing at that high fastball” and turn into Barry Bonds.
BIG JOE SUCK ONE
Dale Murphy
Here is a guy who didn’t start off with a whole lot of plate discipline either. But by 1982, he certainly has acquired some. And there probably isn’t a regular on this board who wouldn’t say that Murph belongs in the HOF.
Now I’m not saying that Frenchy is Murphy, just providing a relevant example where a switch goes off in someone’s head and boom! He figures out how to take a pitch.
Dale Murphy certainly does not belong in the Hall of Fame.
And Dale Murphy’s worst BB% was 7.3% in his rookie year. Francoeur’s BB% have been 4.1, 3.4, 6.1, and 6.1. I’ll grant that 2008 was largely bad luck on the BABIP front, but he’s still not a very good player if he hits like he did in 2007.
All things considered (hitting, replacement level, baserunning, range, and arm), he might end up being a true talent 2.5 win player with a peak in the 3-4 win range. That’s solidly above-average, but nothing special and probably not something that will be worth a free agent contract in 3 years.
Actually this whole mess with McGwire has me thinking Murph deserves it even more. If a guy like McGwire, who’s production more than merits enshrinement can’t get in because of character issues, then shouldn’t Murphy, who’s production is maybe a bit below what’s typically required (though really, come on, find a more dominant fixture of the 80s) but his character is off the charts, maybe the best in baseball history, should be a lock to go in. This is assuming that character has become an important part of the voting process and clearly it has based on how the votes are going.
www.dropoutproductions.com
Off field character vs on field stats
here lies a big part of the HoF controversey. Does Pete Rose get in? Character no, stats yes. Should Ty Cobb be in? Character some say now, stats yes.
We can debate for hours on this topic alone.
Respectfully Disagree
Murph was one of the few gamechangers in the 80’s. Anyone from that era getting in before him is a travesty. The fact that he didn’t get a ring back then should not hinder his enshrinement.
My feeling about Frenchy is that he will indeed end up being an above average to very good player. If he is more towards very good, we definately resign him, but that goes without saying.
By the way, his request for nearly $4 million in arbitration is ridiculous. I’d be tempted to cut him loose because of it.
Francoeur will almost certainly be worth $4 million next season, even if he repeats 2006’s shitstorm his arm, defense, and replacement level will make him a 1 WAR player. Learn something about value before you spout off nonsense.
Dale Murphy had a fantastic 7 season peak, but outside of that he didn’t do anything. BP.com’s JAWS standards have some issues, but they show Murphy as 20 wins below the WARP standard for CFs and Murphy played a lot of his career at the corner spots. To say he belongs in opens the door to a host of outfielders who are well below the average enshrined outfielder. The peak is there, but Hall of Fame candidacies shouldn’t be based on a 7 year peak despite Jim Rice’s election.
I think the Hall’s becoming kind of a joke anyway. Maybe not a joke, but certainly not the hallowed hall it used to be. You could argue about Murphy (I think most people who don’t vote fall on his side, but that’s my anecdotal experience and doesn’t mean a thing), but when you don’t have Pete Rose or McGwire and probably won’t have Clemens or Bonds either, the place just loses its luster. I don’t endorse or condone any of their actions, in fact I think they’re all scum for cheating in their ways and wish nothing good on them, but they were some of the absolute best players in history.
Aside from that nonsense, you’ve got voters who apparently have never seen any baseball games in the last thirty years. Guys like Tony Gwynn, Rickey Henderson, and Wade Boggs aren’t unanimous selections, mostly because of the ridiculous criteria that some guys seventy years ago weren’t unanimous selections. Things like this devalue the whole place to the point that it stops being relevant.
www.dropoutproductions.com
And there probably isn’t a regular on this board who wouldn’t say that Murph belongs in the HOF.
Don’t know if I count as a “regular,” but I absolutely don’t think he belongs in.
Sorry Murph.
Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball
its hard to say no, but i dont think he belongs either, but if you base him off some of the players that ARE in then its hard to keep him out… why would Koufax be in the hall and not Murph….
i may get ripped for this but hoenstly… Koufax pitched 14 years 7 were amazing the other 7 that so much… he has 7 years of dominance (albeit at a higher level than Murph, but still)… what makes Koufax a HOF and not Murph… Murph has two MVP and some very good nbrs. I think Murph gets penalized because after his decline he kept playing for a bit longer… Had KOufax kept pitching after he retired, presumably his arm would have fallen off and he would have sucked ass.
Thats not even considering players like Jim Rice who werent better than Murph in any significant way except he played for the Sawx (and everyone knows playing for the Yankees or Red Sox automatically makes you a better player)
"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."
Well
I disagree with the methodology you’ve used, which is to identify some of the least supported HOFers and compare Murph to them. That is a sure way to the Hall of Mediocrity.
I agree with you on Rice; IMO he shouldn’t have been inducted.
As for Koufax, you answered the question yourself: His peak was higher. Also, I do not think he should be penalized for having to retire because of a shredded arm. Frankly, his 65 and 66 seasons are all the more impressive to me as he basically pitched with a dead arm and still won two more CYAs as the best pitcher in either league.
Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball
i didnt say i thoguht Murph should be in… but how can u keep him out when others that are clearly worse players (i dont mean to suggest Koufax was worse than Murph) are voted in.
It alll depends on how you view the your vote. Its tough, because I dont think Murph belongs in the Hall, but since he is clearly better than some that are in… where do u draw the line.
I think the Hall is drastically losing its prestige… they need one committee who votes people in… and i would like them take back some of their inductions , (but obviously that wont happen)…
I think we agree on what the Hall should be in our minds… but unfortunately thats not how the Hall is, and how we continue is where we differ.
"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."
Speaking of the Hall, I met Goose Gossage today. That dude is awesome. I’m even more pissed than before that it took him so long to get in.
www.dropoutproductions.com
Every January Old Dominion University has a baseball clinic where all the recent grads who are playing pro ball come back to teach kids for an afternoon (except Justin Verlander who for some reason can’t ever be bothered to show up). In addition to those guys they always bring in a Hall of Famer to talk. A couple years ago it was Bob Gibson (!), last year it was Joe Morgan (nobody asked why he sucks so hard at broadcasting and analysis in genera) and this year it was Goose. He was more into it than any of the guys I’ve seen and was all about talking with everyone and signing some autographs.
All in all it’s a pretty awesome way to start a new baseball year. You get to see a Hall of Famer, get to see all the recent stars decked out in their pro gear and telling insane stories about pro ball and get to talk with the guys on the current team, which right now has like 47 freshmen.
www.dropoutproductions.com
Oh there was some funny, but from the young guys. A pretty crazy story about one of the top prospects in baseball (Giants, all I’m saying) going to a shack in the middle of the desert and buying a 50 cal rifle. Lots of stories about the women in Scottsdale, including the woman with the best body/worst teeth on the planet.
www.dropoutproductions.com
Using the worst members as a benchmark for entry strikes me as a terrible way to determine whether someone is deserving. I would choose based on whether the player is better than the average player at his position, with discretion for those who are close.
so ur HOF is full of players who are above average… in another thread we pointed out that Dan JOhnson is an above average 1B. you think that makes more sense?
You are misconstruing what Im saying, I want to take people out of the Hall who arent deserving, because that would make the Hall more pretigious. This won’t happen though. But its logically unconscionable to deny Murphy (or a ton of other players) if you admit he is better than those who are in the Hall. I think he is better than Jim Rice.
I dont think Jim Rice belongs in teh Hall, but he is. So logically Murphy should be in the Hall. It doesnt mattter if you think it is a terrible way, there is no argument to keep Murhphy out if Rice is in (assuming Murph>Rice).that said i dont think either should be in, i dont think half of those inducted deserve to be in, and i think its ridiculous that people wont elect someone unanimously because no one has ever been elected unanimously (althought thats a slightly differrent argment)
"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."
Um
“in another thread we pointed out that Dan JOhnson is an above average 1B.”
Not to belabor the point, but that’s exactly what I didn’t prove. I explained why using anything over 100 OPS+ as a benchmark for above-average leads to counter-intuitive results and is likely a flawed approach.
Different positions require different levels of offensive contribution.
Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball
Senior Smoke. Don’t knock Juan he was a valuble piece to the Braves earlier success in the 90’s
by bravesrbaseball on Jan 23, 2009 4:03 PM EST up reply actions
Juan? That’s Ray King, pitched one season out of the bullpen in 2003
"Fools rush in where fools have been before"
Think he’s talking about the picture directly above you.
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Jan 24, 2009 12:10 PM EST up reply actions
thing I remember most about ray king
it was the bottom of the ninth, two out ,and a tie game, runners on second and third with first open. Bobby Cox call for an intentional walk, the first pitch ray king sailed to the backstop and the braves lost. True story.
So gutsy aint the word.
by bravesrbaseball on Jan 25, 2009 11:05 AM EST up reply actions
And If By Andruw Being Hurt
you mean he sprained his esophagus wolfing down fistfuls of curly fries… word.
Just joking around, dude. Hell, he might not have needed any knee surgery if he hadn’t been corkscrewing around trying to hit those chin-high changeups with all that gutflab on his frame.
Wow. That’s one of the most astute comments I’ve ever heard about Andruw’s situation. Well done. Hadn’t even thought of how his weight combined with his swing might hurt his knee. Good job.
www.dropoutproductions.com
That weight killed him defensively. Andruw made a living diving to catch line drives. Those impacts get more violent at 240 lbs and the sheer number of times took a toll. His weight is back down to an acceptable level but who knows how well his knees will hold up.
"Fools rush in where fools have been before"
i think the book is already out on TP… he doesnt know how to coach…. he was an aggressive hitter and he thinks that what makes players successful. WHen in reality what makes players successful is their ability to use thier skill set. Telling Dunn to be more aggressive and stop looking at so many pitches would compeltely destroy his allure. He told KJ to be more aggressive and he sucked it big time this year (ok he wasnt bad but he wasnt as good as he was). Frenchy will continue to hack., and unfortunately it wont work unless he somehow develops into Vlad and he is able to hit any ball that is thrown in his general direction… and hit those balls far.
I think Francouer can rebound. But im reserving my optimism for other sections of the Braves team… I love Frenchy and nothing gets me more excited when a player tries to run on him, but a great hitter he is not… hopefully he can develop into a 5-10 run offensive player, or at least an avg offensive performer and then have his defense bring him to above avg (assuming 08 was an aberration)
"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."
That is where I am leaning on TP myself. I’ll be the first to admit, though, that my opinion is a little colored by the tremendous mancrush I had on him in 91 and 92. In any case, like I said earlier, we’ll see how the Braves hitters do this year. If it’s another hack-fest, all bets are off.
I, too, like Frenchy as a player, and I really hope he rights the ship this season.
FYF’s inability to take pitches was a giant red flag, even in ’06-7.
My single biggest problem with this team is that we don’t look at enough balls. The hitters are all up there hacking away, and you have to blame that undisciplined plate approach on TP. But who knows, maybe all the minor league hitting coaches are the same way, maybe it’s an organizational thing.
I hope Frenchy has a good year so that his value will go back up in order to get a better return when we do trade him…I just don’t see him turner around his approach to hitting till that chances I don’t see the FO keeping him the long term plans. Though it is early to make this type of decision just yet but a pattern is beginning to develope. I hopefully we can take advantage on Dayton M love for FYF in order tp cough up some talent in return…
There is absolutely nothing in his past performance, major leagues and minor, to indicate that he will ever learn how to work the count. There is little to indicate that he can hit for high average. There is some evidence of plus power, but his ISO has been in decline since his rookie year. As a fielder his arm is one of the best, but his other skills are all below average. He doesn’t run the bases well.
So, let’s go down the list -
Hitting for average – C
Plate Discipline – F
Power – C
Baserunning – D
Throwing Arm – A-
Outfield Range – C-
The one skill he really has is one of the least important. As an offensive player, he’s truly aweful, combining an inability to make consistent contact and modest power with the inability to lay off pitches in other time zones. How the hell 60+% of people here think he’ll be worth a damn is beyond me.
by BraveBronco0121 on Jan 23, 2009 11:01 AM EST reply actions
So ...
Waive him?
"He's getting better, but he's not there yet ..."
- Bobby Cox (talking about Boyer)
Trade him straight up for Nick Markakis.
SWAGGA LIKE BJONES, SWAGGA LIKE BJONES
JOE-BO FOR THE BENCH IN 09
+1
Speaking of Markakis … the Orioles waited an extra year (compared w/ Frenchy) to bring him up. Ah … what might have been.
"He's getting better, but he's not there yet ..."
- Bobby Cox (talking about Boyer)
I hope that was sarcasm
I agree that Frenchy was rushed, but you are sorely mis-informed if you think Markakis was given extra time in the minors. Markakis spent 3 years in the O’s minor system as opposed to Frenchy’s 4. Markakis collected on 1034 AB’s vs. Frenchy’s 1429. Finally, Markakis amassed a whopping 124 AB’s above A+ ball before being called up as opposed to Frenchy’s 411 AB’s.
"Debated ya right not one person agreed with me" by ATLsportsfrk on Dec 27, 2008 6:31 PM EST
Um ... sort of
Frenchy was drafted in June of ’02 and made his debut in July of ’05. So three years, right? Sorry … thanks for the correction.
"He's getting better, but he's not there yet ..."
- Bobby Cox (talking about Boyer)
You're semi correct
His 02 year was a partial so technically it was 3.333 years, not 4. Still, French had more experience in the minors overall.
I have a funny story about counting, not that it’s related to this (just your post reminded me of it). Two guys on my softball team got into a verbal argument during a game over what 10+4 equals. Basically we started an inning with 10 runs on the scoreboard and our first 4 batters scored, but the scoreboard said 13. Our coach stopped the game and went out to the umpire to get it corrected. The other guy (mind you he was ON OUR TEAM) followed him out arguing that 10+4 equals 13, “the score is right, quit stopping the game! I want to get home before midnight already!” The two started shouting at each other right there on the field. After a minute or two the other guy says “Look. We started this inning with 10 runs and we’ve scored 4.” He holds up his first finger and starts counting … “10” holding up his first finger, “11” second finger, “12” third finger and finally “13” holding up the fourth finger. “Now who’s the dumbass, 10+4 equals 13”. The umpire literally dropped to his knees laughing. What made it so funny was how dead serious he was. It took us the rest of the game to get him “righted”.
"Debated ya right not one person agreed with me" by ATLsportsfrk on Dec 27, 2008 6:31 PM EST
I wouldn't mind getting rid of him...
though I would prefer to pawn him off on some poor team that wants to give him a chance.
Seriously, let’s say he bounces back to 2006 levels. If he does that, he’s 4 runs above replacement. Four. That’s it. He’s just not a starting caliber outfielder for a major league team right now, and the only time he was that came in a three month stretch in 2005 where he posted a ridiculous BABIP.
by BraveBronco0121 on Jan 23, 2009 2:33 PM EST up reply actions
BOTTOM LINE: SHE RUINED EVERYTHING ...
"He's getting better, but he's not there yet ..."
- Bobby Cox (talking about Boyer)
a powder blue hat? what a fag…
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Jan 23, 2009 2:21 PM EST up reply actions
Whoa! Whoa! Whoa!
That’s “Carolina” blue my friend. Be very careful what you say next, we Tarheel fans are pretty sensitive …
"Debated ya right not one person agreed with me" by ATLsportsfrk on Dec 27, 2008 6:31 PM EST
Yeah, I know…after I typed that I started thinking of those awesome looking Chargers throwback uniforms, and how they are a similar color. Whatever, he still sucks.
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Jan 23, 2009 5:11 PM EST up reply actions
I’m more amazed by the car. He seriously can’t have his own likeness pasted on the side. Who does he think he is, Rampage Jackson?
SWAGGA LIKE BJONES, SWAGGA LIKE BJONES
JOE-BO FOR THE BENCH IN 09
hahah
looks like Smoltzie to me, Rampage Smoltz
by bravesguy311 on Jan 23, 2009 4:06 PM EST up reply actions
She's not even good-looking
My wife is much better looking than her, and I’m a lowly civil-servant. His eyes must REALLY be bad.
"…aren’t worthy enough to hold his (Pujols) ass cheeks apart while Playboy models wipe him with thousand dollar bills after he craps out the cure to whatever previously-incurable disease." by royhobbs 1/7/09
Haha…I think she’s pretty cute, except for that horrific overbite.
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Jan 23, 2009 3:09 PM EST up reply actions
You must be a lucky man
No offense, but i’d love to see a pic of your wife if she’s better looking than Mrs. Frenchy here. Then again, I’m a big sucker for the “girl next door” look.
"Debated ya right not one person agreed with me" by ATLsportsfrk on Dec 27, 2008 6:31 PM EST
Well, I might be able to provide a wedding pic – which would be great because it’s proof she’s my wife – although getting images to actually appear on-screen doesn’t always work for me. The downside is, people will be saying “Jeez, she married down!”
On a side note, I dated a girl that kind of reminds me of Mrs. Frenchy – though not as attractive.
"…aren’t worthy enough to hold his (Pujols) ass cheeks apart while Playboy models wipe him with thousand dollar bills after he craps out the cure to whatever previously-incurable disease." by royhobbs 1/7/09
Dude, if I come up with the pics you're thinking of...
…it’ll cost you $19.95 a month. Can’t give the good stuff away in this economy…
"…aren’t worthy enough to hold his (Pujols) ass cheeks apart while Playboy models wipe him with thousand dollar bills after he craps out the cure to whatever previously-incurable disease." by royhobbs 1/7/09
by buzzdeadwax on Jan 26, 2009 12:36 AM EST up reply actions
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