Community Projection Project : Kelly Johnson
by BraveBronco0121 on Jan 20, 2009 7:13 PM EST
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PrintWith Brian McCann in the book, tis time to move on to second base. Kelly Johnson, now going into his third full year with the big league club, seems to be a lock for the starting job unless we have an out-of-the-blue trade.
2005 (age 23) : 334 PA, .241/.334/.397, .323 wOBA
2006 (age 24) : Missed due to Tommy John surgery
2007 (age 25) : 608 PA, .276/.375/.457, .363 wOBA
2008 (age 26) : 614 PA, .287/.349/.446, .346 wOBA
Johnson's 2005 debut showed promise - his selectivity at the plate was well advanced (12% BB rate) and while he didn't show much power for the big league club, his minor league numbers indicated above average pop. Baseball Prospectus regarded him quite highly, comparing him favorably to both Francoeur and McCann in their 2006 annual. Unfortunately, Johnson's development was put on hold after requiring surgery to repair a torn elbow ligament.
After completing rehab, Johnson moved from the outfield to second base and won the job during 2007 spring training. It was to be a breakout campaign for Kelly. He managed to cut his strikeout rate, raise his average, hit for more power, and maintain his excellent discipline at the dish. The defensive transition was a little rough - UZR pegged him for -8.4 runs per 150 games played at second base.
2008 saw some rather serious regression in Johnson's game. His walk rate fell off significantly - from 13% all the way down to 8.7% - and his isolated power dropped by .20 points. There were some bright signs though, as his strikeout rate declined for the second consecutive year. As in 2007, the defense wasn't exactly masterful, though it is worth noting that his UZR/150 was exactly the same as it had been the year prior.
CHONE projects Kelly for a .281/.371/.451 year in 2009 - a combination of his improved contact skills and a 2007esque walk rate with an ISO somewhere in between. With no other serious contenders for the second base job, I tend to think that 600 plate appearances is a solid estimation at this time. Defensively, he's clearly below average, but no butcher either. -7 runs seems safe to me.
Overall, I like this projection, though I do have lingering doubts that TP may be coaching him towards a more hacktastic style at the plate.
As before, everyone is encouraged to participate - just keep it friendly.
This FanPost does not express the views or opinions of Talking Chop.
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I think Kelly should develop a little more power as he enters his athletic prime with 2 years of experience, but I think his decreased discipline will hurt him..
630 PAs
.285/.355/.465
wOBA around .355-.360
If Kelly goes back to his old style, then I like the CHONE projection.
I like it.
I’m in agreement with Victor here on the AVG, OBP and SLG projections. I think he comes in somewhere around the 550 to 570 PA mark though, whether by injury or Bobby benching him for Prado on occasion I’m not sure.
"Debated ya right not one person agreed with me" by ATLsportsfrk on Dec 27, 2008 6:31 PM EST
cmon, no one remembers projections....
hes going to post a .330/.460/.590 in an unbelievable breakout year that puts him straight into the MVP race!
here is a question. Has there ever been a case of a guy that just forgot how to take a walk? I don’t mean guys declining late in their career, but someone who was a good selective hitter who could take a walk one year and then the next he couldn’t? I find it hard to believe that is a skill you can just lose and I think his 2008 BB rate was probably just a blip (unless TP was somehow influencing him to walk less and K less at the same time).
So expect an improvement I think.
If Kelly Johnson will stick to his natural pull swing he could put up decent power numbers. When he starts trying to drive the ball to center, as he often has, he always falls short of the track. Yes he runs like twinkle toes, but he has average speed and defensive potential, plus he is a great line drive hitter, but if he is gonna swing for the fences, and yes he often does, he needs to pull the ball is all I am saying. Trading him makes no sense because he has such a positive upside, plus he is cheap for a few more years.
by bravesrbaseball on Jan 21, 2009 12:05 AM EST reply actions
See…this is where the defensive metrics make me pull my hair out, because +/- rates him much more kindly than UZR.
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
Indeed...
and the truth is likely in the middle. I will admit that most of the times, I don’t track down +/- data for a lot of guys because UZR is featured over at my one-stop-shop for baseball numbers.
by BraveBronco0121 on Jan 21, 2009 10:08 AM EST up reply actions
Ha, I know the drill.
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Jan 21, 2009 10:15 AM EST up reply actions
By the way...
does one have to buy the +/- data from BIS?
by BraveBronco0121 on Jan 21, 2009 10:34 AM EST up reply actions
http://www.billjamesonline.net/
I think it’s like $3 a month for all his stats, articles, etc.
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Jan 21, 2009 11:57 AM EST up reply actions
Does anybody know if there is a statistical system for baserunning. I know it would be hard to equate, but I’d be interested to know if one has been developed
There is Baseball Prospectus' Equivalent Baserunning Runs...
by BraveBronco0121 on Jan 21, 2009 2:45 PM EST up reply actions
I think it’s time to pony up the dough for a subscription. I’ve just been cheap in the past, and it shows in my statistical knowledge of the game.
by Bmacbandwagon on Jan 21, 2009 5:12 PM EST up reply actions
To be honest...
don’t do it. The quality of analysis at Beyond The Box Score, Fangraphs, and The Hardball Times is better, and it’s free. About the only reason to get BP now is for their PECOTA projections, and we’ve got three other free projection models now.
by BraveBronco0121 on Jan 21, 2009 6:16 PM EST up reply actions
this
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Jan 21, 2009 6:53 PM EST up reply actions
You said it
I am very close to not renewing my BP subscription right now. My only problem is I really enjoy most of the articles and I will really miss some of the analysis contained in a players PECOTA page (such as 7 year forecast, Eqa distribution and player profile graphs). Actually most of this stuff can be derived by using the freely available projection systems at FG, but I’m lazy and love that I can get it all on one page without lifting a finger. Now that I think about it I believe I just talked myself into keeping my sub. Thanks for nothing BB – LOL.
"Debated ya right not one person agreed with me" by ATLsportsfrk on Dec 27, 2008 6:31 PM EST
Not true. BP has some excellent statistical databases, their quality of writing is very high and they produce 4-5 articles a day in season, their injury game is literally the only one in town, they’re starting to really get into the business end, the archives are filled with tons of interesting studies, and most importantly they’re catching back up with the saber community in terms of quantifying replacement level and defense.
Fair points...
and I didn’t intend to come off harshly there. BP has been behind the curve now on a number of issues, and PECOTA isn’t much more accurate than CHONE at predicting future performance. The injury analysis is excellent, and your point about the archive is a good one – there is a lot that we now take for granted that started with BP almost ten years ago and to read the source material is pretty cool.
That being said, I still tend to prefer the collage of free baseball sites over them. Some of their big proprietary stats – EqA, FRAA, VORP, MLVR, WARP, etc. – have major flaws. To me, it makes less sense to try to fix them than it does to adopt wOBA and Tango’s WAR model. The problem with that, from a business standpoint, is that it’s pretty easy to calculate those in a spreadsheet and have them for free. BP is in a tough position because of it, since one of the big appeals to joining their site is the analysis, and if it’s based on faulty metrics, it will suffer. Consider the breakdown of the Garza/Bartlett for Young/Pridie/Harris. BP called that trade a slight win for the Rays, mainly because their fielding metric, which is included in WARP calculations, is pretty bad.
So, they really seem to have three options – leave it like it is and stay behind, try to fix the metrics and catch back up, or just get over it and adopt at least some of the metrics used by Fangraphs, BTBS, Tom Tango, etc. I personally would like to see the latter. BP has more financial resources to spend producing quality analysis than Fangraphs, THT, Beyond the Box Score, and pretty much everyone else in the statistical community. Why spend that trying to fix EqA when we have wOBA? It’s the most accurate measure of a batter’s worth that we have. There are a number of other things that we can devote time to afterwards – specifically, fielding and pitching. tRA shows great promise in isolating everything a pitcher has control over and neutralizing the rest, and play-by-play fielding data has made the quantification of defense far more accurate. Both still need work, and BP would be wise to focus attention there.
by BraveBronco0121 on Jan 23, 2009 10:56 AM EST up reply actions
Okay, my view.
I’m going to say:
600 PA .278/.350/.450
Which is projecting a slight downtick in hits but slightly better power than last year. Basically projecting him between 2007 and 2008.
.280 for sure
I think Johnson will hit .280 for sure this year. I would just like to see him do it while playing left. We’ve got a lot of ground ball pitchers in our rotation Prado is stronger defensively and wishfully by mid season I’d like to see Dan Uggla playing and hitting in the middle for Atlanta.
by Favorite Brave 3 on Jan 21, 2009 5:35 PM EST reply actions
Prado is stronger defensively
Please explain your reasoning.
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Jan 21, 2009 5:45 PM EST up reply actions
Sorry mate
I have to second SB’s reply above. Defensively KJ > Prado >>> Uggla. If Uggla is considered in trade the only position I would let him play would be LF and that’s only because we have a decent defensive outfielder to replace him late in the game.
"Debated ya right not one person agreed with me" by ATLsportsfrk on Dec 27, 2008 6:31 PM EST
We have so many "pitch to contact" starters
I would like to move KJ for a defensive stud, and prospects/cash, of course.
Assuming Chipper can stay healthy, Escobar, Kotchman, and (stud fielding 2B) will save a lot of runs.
Alright...
seems that the consensus right now looks something like this:
600 PA, .355 wOBA, -3.5 runs in the field
Total : 31 runs above replacement
by BraveBronco0121 on Jan 22, 2009 9:13 PM EST reply actions
If he plays everyday I project
50 errors or so. His offense isn’t really the problem.
"When I played pro football, I never set out to hurt anyone deliberately - unless it was, you know, important, like a league game or something"
-Dick Butkus
its still a long way until the season goes…. let’s reserve our judgment for the dumbest question ever…. Im still hoping ATLSports FRK comes back to dazzle us
"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."
Expecting 50 errors out of a guy who’s made 28 in two years, I don’t know, there’s stupid, and there’s ignorant, but that’s just dumb.
www.dropoutproductions.com
ooo im not arguing that this was an incredibly stupid comment…. but i have faith in people… i think there could be something dumber, or someone…
also, his statement implies that KJ doesnt play everyday, despite the 150 games he played last year
"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."
Excuse me. Jeez.
I was exaggerating to make a point. I could have said, no one would mistake Kelly out there for Robbie Alomar unless he starts spitting on umpires. Thats called understatement
"When I played pro football, I never set out to hurt anyone deliberately - unless it was, you know, important, like a league game or something"
-Dick Butkus
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