Is Brian Roberts a possibility? Are outfielders getting more affordable?
by gondeee on Jan 19, 2009 7:49 PM EST
in Braves Trade News
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PrintAn interesting scenario from K-Ros about filling our offensive void:
The Braves represent perhaps the most intriguing match for the Orioles — they nearly acquired [second baseman Brian Roberts] two years ago and made another run at him last year. Roberts would fill the role they envisioned for Rafael Furcal, providing dynamic leadoff skills. Second baseman Kelly Johnson would move to the outfield.
However, one source with knowledge of the Braves' thinking said the club would be reluctant to give up the necessary talent for Roberts and pay his salary. Instead, the Braves likely will wait for the price to drop on an outfielder, either in free agency or trade discussions.
As we've heard in previous years, the Orioles are a tough team to deal with. Roberts is also a free agent at the end of the year, and I'm not too eager to give up young talent for any more one-year rentals (Devine, Wainwright).
Speaking of prices for outfielders dropping, via MLBTR we get this report from the Washington Post that the price for Adam Dunn may be hitting rock bottom:
Across baseball, Dunn's reported asking price has left baseball executives -- including those at 1500 S. Capitol St. -- with their eyebrows just about raised up to their hairlines. Certainly you cannot fault Dunn for trying to name his price, but for the time being, he seems nowhere close to getting it. One agent I spoke with today said that "I think Dunn will get a max of $5 million per year. Anything more than that and I'd be surprised."
Now before you run off and say let's sign him for $5 million, I really don't think he'll end of getting anything that low. A more likely scenario in my estimation is a short contract that maximizes value while limiting years, in which Dunn hopes that he can get more after a year or two if the economy is better. I think a two-year, $18 million contract is not a bad deal for either Dunn or the Braves. While we know that some of our best prospects are outfielders, they are still mostly a year or two away. This buys them time and of course adds a valuable middle of the order power bat without giving up prospects or entering into a long term contract.
If the market for Dunn is down this low, then I have to imagine the market for other outfielders is as well. This may prompt the Braves to wait longer to make a move, they haven't seemed rushed to this point this off-season.
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I really don’t feel like paying a second baseman $10 million unless his last name starts with a U, thanks.
BIG JOE SUCK ONE
bigjoe
I don’t know about you but I would sign a guy named Pedroia for $10 million. I would also sign guys by the names of Kinsler and Phillips for that amount.
"The only time the Mets win is in the offseason"
by Falconzfan284 on Jan 19, 2009 8:43 PM EST up reply actions
Well, if we could sign Roberts long term.
Then sure it’d be worth it, however Dunn is rapidly declining in value especially because he can’t field to save his life. Between that and getting older, not a great value. Is he worth $5 million, yeah, but we might be able to do better.
I’d go for Brian Roberts though, if you look at his value over the past three years, it’s pretty nice.
Roberts is older than Dunn, my friend.
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Jan 19, 2009 9:24 PM EST up reply actions
Well. Obviously I didn't look that up.
So there.
Still I’d rather have Roberts, who is consistently way more valuable than is Dunn. Dunn is one of the absolute worst fielding LFers around. We might as well go for Manny if we are going for Dunn.
Manny = $20+M ( i honestly think he wont play if he doesnt get it)
Dunn = $10M ( and theres rumors of 5 being able to get hiim so i doubled it)
so ur logic is lacking my friend
"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."
Well.
I’m mostly talking about the fact that Dunn is nothing but a bat, we can probably find a better LF option for the price, especially someone who can actually play defense. Dunn isn’t a very good option because he will severely impact our defense.
I have to big issues with trading for Roberts. The first is that the Orioles are very difficult to trade with. They overvalue their players greatly but Roberts is a very good 2nd baseman. They just traded Olsen so I think that an offer starting with one of Morton, Parr, or Reyes would be a good starting point and add Prado and a low level higher ceiling starter and you could get him. The other thing that worries me is that he is a free agent at the end of the season. I think that if the Orioles allowed us to negotiate with him for 48-72 hours as part of the deal something could be worked out. I would say around 4 years and $40 MM would get him to sign provided the deal started in 2010.
Actually I do think that that would be enough to get him. He is a 2nd baseman who has only one year left before free agency. He gets on base, hits doubles and steals bases. His home run numbers would go down in Atlanta but his double and triple numbers should increase. The fact that he can steal bases becomes irrelevant in Atlanta because we don’t run. The fact is that he wouldn’t help us win that many more games and based on the amount of money for him it really wouldn’t help us that much.
Wait…are you for or against getting Roberts?
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Jan 19, 2009 9:25 PM EST up reply actions
I am against it. I think that the prospects plus the money is to much for a player thats not going to help us win that many more games. Plus we would still lack a cleanup hitter.
Yeah, I got it now. Misunderstood what you were trying to say at first.
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Jan 20, 2009 12:27 AM EST up reply actions
I would LOVE to have Roberts. The guy is very good in the field, hits about .300 every year with a fantastic OBP and hits tons of doubles. He is also only 31 so he has somewhere around 2-3 more years left. Besides his contract I really can’t even think of a reason why not to go after him, unless they ask for to much.
"The only time the Mets win is in the offseason"
Honestly, looking at the numbers…I think I’d actually rather have 3 years of KJ…much, much cheaper, we wouldn’t have to give up anything for him, and he’s got more pop
BIG JOE SUCK ONE
Thats what I was thinking move KJ to left, unless we are talking about trading KJ in this deal.
"The only time the Mets win is in the offseason"
by Falconzfan284 on Jan 19, 2009 10:07 PM EST up reply actions
I have to agree with bigjoe here. I would rather keep the money and prospects and use Johnson at 2nd. I still don’t think that even with the additions of Lowe and Kawakami we finish any higher than 3rd in the division. Our staff is solid but still lacks that one dominating ace that championship teams have. So why should we give up money and prospects for a player that won’t help us win that many more games. He’s a leadoff hitter but he still needs someone to bat him in.
You don’t have to have a dominating ace; you just need a really good team. The 1998 and 1999 Yankees didn’t have that ace nor did the 2002 Angels and the 2005 White Sox (unless you consider Buerhle a dominating ace as opposed to a Hudson-like weak ace/strong 2). It’s really not a prerequisite for being a championship caliber team.
Agreed
No one has love for KJ. They won’t make statues of the man but he is pretty good and cheap.
Leave the infield intact as is. Let Schafer, Anderson, Reyes, and Morton start in AAA.
Brandon Jones and Matt Diaz Platoon in LF, Andruw Jones and Blanco in CF. Sign Glavine if applicable for 2 million. Move Campillo to the Roogy role.
If Dunn becomes a steal then take him for no more than 2 years at 16 mil. Platoon him and Diaz in LF. Let Anderson and Blanco platoon in CF and forget about Andruw Jones.
Cuban’s ares till out there?
why would u platoon DUnn
vs RHP: OPS =931
vs LHP: OPS= 833
Diaz is slightly better with a 869 OPS against LHP, but its certainly not significant…. and considering his BABIP on that OPS is 351, its hard sustainable.
"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."
In the past 5 years, his lowest games total is 152. Stop talking out your ass and fact check once in awhile.
BIG JOE SUCK ONE
he really doesnt like the game at all does he (Dunn)… i mean he is always taking days off
"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."
slacker
"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."
Adam Dunn is such a piece of garbage for getting 651 PA last season. God, he was hurt so much, and was fat, and worthless, and when he’d go out to play the field, he’d lay on a lawn chair and get sun and he cost his team 300 runs out there. HORRIBLE PLAYER, JOSH ANDERSON IS THE FUTURE.
BIG JOE SUCK ONE
Eh...
I think the better option is to sign Dunn. Roberts is a good second baseman, but not exactly a spectacular one. KJ and Roberts both seem to be projected for wOBAs around .355, and defensively, Roberts has been better but has also declined as of late. While slotting Roberts at 2nd would free up KJ, it would also cost us minor league talent. Better to pay Dunn and leave Kelly at 2nd.
by BraveBronco0121 on Jan 19, 2009 9:22 PM EST reply actions
While Dunn’s price is dropping, I’d be wary about letting it go too low before other teams start jumping on the bandwagon to sign him.
I’m ok with bringing in Dunn. His downsides like a massive strikeout total and bad defense are well documented. However, the idea here is to get a power bat between Chipper and McCann. Dunn seems to solve that problem. We don’t need him to hit .300 and club 40 homers. He just needs to force people to pitch to Chipper.
I’m not big on Roberts either. I just saw a blurb, but didn’t the Orioles just lock up Markakis for 66 million? I realize the kid’s got talent, but talk about overvaluing players. I’d be interested to know who the O’s want in exchange for Roberts…
we need someone to protect Chipper, and with Dunn hitting in front of McCann, teams will be wary of trying to walk DUnn, which theoretically should lead to better pitches to hit for him…. he’s never really had good protection in the lineup… so it would be interesting to see what would happen to his numbers.
And wait a second Dunn strikes out a lot and doesnt play great defense…. color me shocked (not makin fun of you just a general comment on how annoying it is listening to people say “but he strikes out a ton”)
"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."
Markakis over valued?
The O’s signed him for an average annual salary of $11 mil per year. In 2007 he provided somewhere in the neighborhood of $14 mil and in 2008 that jumped to around $24 mil per year. Give or take a couple mil per year either way, I’d say $11 mil per is a steal for the O’s.
"Debated ya right not one person agreed with me" by ATLsportsfrk on Dec 27, 2008 6:31 PM EST
Yeah, he’s a pretty legit player.
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Jan 20, 2009 12:28 AM EST up reply actions
I agree he’s a legitimate player, but is two good years enough to warrant getting the second most lucrative contract in team history? Francoeur probably could have warranted similar compensation after two years, but I’m quite glad the Braves and he didn’t come to an agreement if 2008 was any indication of his future.
Sure, if you only look at his last two years, I could see the case they over paid – but why not look at the bigger picture? First, your assumption that Francoeur could have warranted similar compensation is based solely on the “hype”, at least that’s my assumption. Let’s look deeper:
Francoeur, in just over 1400 AB’s in the minors, barely eeked out an .812 OPS. That’s with a .285 BA and a .332 OBP. In just over 2100 AB’s in the majors Francoeur has a whopping .746 OPS with a .266 BA and .312 OBP. So the thought that Francoeur somehow could have warranted a $66 mil extension after his first two years is a bit “iffY” in my mind. He did put up good numbers in his first partial year in the majors, but he has yet to back that up with another good season and his minor league numbers certainly don’t warrant it.
Now Markakis on the other hand:
(I tried to post .GIF files of his career stats but the formatting sucked. Click on this text instead to see the stats.)
This guy is the poster boy for consistency. All across the board he’s put up OPS’s of mid .800’s both in the minors and majors. So there is proof well beyond his two years to show he is the real deal. Even if we focus on his major league career exclusively we see he’s put up somewhere above $40 to $46 million worth of value in just under 3 years of service (plus he’s only been paid $1.2 million to date). Even if he were to regress back to his 2007 form the $66 million is more than justified. Remember, he’ll be 25 this year so the contract only runs through his age 31 seasons, it’s very unlikely he’ll regress due to age before that time.
So does this help change your mind?
"Debated ya right not one person agreed with me" by ATLsportsfrk on Dec 27, 2008 6:31 PM EST
by scstrato on Jan 20, 2009 11:53 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Nice post.
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Jan 20, 2009 12:31 PM EST up reply actions
TY
I figured with Mr. Hobbs (notice how that changed from “our boy roy”) is now our moderator I better mind my P’s and Q’s. =)
"Debated ya right not one person agreed with me" by ATLsportsfrk on Dec 27, 2008 6:31 PM EST
hahahaha
Don’t get the idea that I’m some control freak who is going to be all Officer Farva on everyone. Just an extra set of eyes to look for jjcollins types and the other people who can’t handle bigjoe’s instigating tone and mutate into E-cock swinging trolls.
Otherwise, I’ll still be posting the same old swill, digging up pictures of player wives and GFs.
No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.
I couldn't help myself
had to get in at least one jab! Looking forward to the next set of royhobbs styled pictorials!!!
"Debated ya right not one person agreed with me" by ATLsportsfrk on Dec 27, 2008 6:31 PM EST
Markakis is good
He’s one of the best young outfielders in the game. He had the third highest OBP in the AL last year. He plays very good defense. He’s only 25. Fangraphs valued him at 24.3 million last year. Doesn’t sound like they overvalued him at all actually.
http://www.whensidslid.com
the whole "striking out" thing...
makes me wish FJM was still around so they could write 19 different articles about what a !@#! bargain 5M/yr is
Seriously…they need to come out of retirement if Raul Ibanez signs a more lucrative contract than Dunn.
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Jan 20, 2009 12:29 AM EST up reply actions
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