Community Projection Project : Brian McCann
by BraveBronco0121 on Jan 19, 2009 11:34 AM EST
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PrintAlright, as I have neither class nor work today, I think it's a good time to start discussing the Community Projection Project. For those of you who are not familiar with it, I would suggest that you check out this thread at Beyond The Box Score to get an idea of what we're trying to do. Everyone here at Talking Chop is welcome to chip in with their two cents on the forcasts for Atlanta's 2009 season.
Right now, I'd like to start with the guys who have well-established roles on the Braves. We won't really know how the bench and bullpen will shake out until spring training, but we can be sure about most of the starting lineup.
What better place to start than the best catcher in the National League?
Brian McCann
2005 (age 21): 204 plate appearances, .278/.345/.400, .319 wOBA
2006 (age 22): 492 plate appearances, .333/.388/.572, .402 wOBA
2007 (age 23): 552 plate appearances, .270/.320/.452, .328 wOBA
2008 (age 24): 509 plate appearances, .301/.373/.523, .387 wOBA
Brian McCann, one of the many "Baby Braves" that debuted in the 2005 season, has been the best catcher in the NL over the last three years, and 2008 saw a major improvement in his plate discipline. For the first time as a major leaguer, McCann's walk rate topped 10%, up from the ~7.25% of his first two full seasons. This is a major step forward for McCann, who has been a very batting average dependent player for most of his professional career.
Speaking of batting average, McCann has all the makings of a .300 hitter. He makes very consistent contact (85% contact rate) and seldom strikes out (12% K rate for his career).
Overall, McCann profiles as a very well rounded offensive player, one who hits for average, power, and as of 2008, draws a good ammount of walks. So, what do the projection models see for him in 2009?
Marcels: 542 plate appearances, .297/.360/.501, .367 wOBA
CHONE: 503 plate appearances, .297/.368/.503, .379 wOBA
Bill James: 571 plate appearances, .301/.370/.525, .387 wOBA
Clearly, Bill James is the most bullish on McCann - basically a repeat of his monsterous 2008 campaign with 20 more plate appearances. CHONE and Marcels are cautious in their own ways, with predictions of fewer plate appearances and a significant regression respectively. It's worth noting that even the more cautious projection models would have him as one of the top catchers in the big leagues in 2009.
Overall, as it usually is, the truth probably lies somewhere in between the three. Marcels is, to my mind, expecting too much regression in McCann's walk rate. It is not at all unusual for a 24 year old player to establish a new level of performance as he enters his peak and I see no reason to think that McCann's newfound patience is illusory. His plate discipline data (like much of the data I cite, it's available for free at Fangraphs) indicates that he swung at fewer pitches, both balls and strikes, than he had in 2006 or 2007. It seems to indicate an increase in selectiveness at the plate - an excellent thing to have when you're a .300 hitting catcher with plus power. he BJ projection (no sophomoric humor please) is very optimistic about his playing time, and it probably represents a best case scenario and not the mean.
Personally, I think it's safe to peg McCann for 530 plate appearances with a .380 wOBA. For those of you without a spreadsheet in front of you, that line is good for 27 runs above average with the bat. Combine that with the positional adjustment for catchers (+12.5 runs per 162 games) and replacement level (25 runs below average per 162) we have McCann's value right around 50 runs above replacement, good for ~5 wins before we account for defense. This post is getting big enough as is though, and I'll save that for another day.
As I said earlier, I welcome all the input I can get from the Talking Chop community. This is a collaborative effort, and I'm sure most of you have valuable information contribute. I only ask that you keep the discussion respectful.
This FanPost does not express the views or opinions of Talking Chop.
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I think the McCann we got in 2006 was a little too good, and the one in 2007 was a little bad. The 2008 McCann seems to be what I’m expecting out of him.
BIG JOE SUCK ONE
I've noticed that as well...
though there are some players that CHONE seems to absolutely love, Javier Vasquez being the most notable example. That’s why I think it’s best to look at all three – one projection model’s exuberance tempered by a more modest forcast.
by BraveBronco0121 on Jan 19, 2009 1:20 PM EST up reply actions
CHONE uses 4 years of data while Marcels uses 3 years of data so Vazquez’s 2005 is included for the CHONE projection. CHONE also uses batted ball data so it regarded Vazquez’s HR rate in 2005 as fluky since Vazquez’s FB% was so low, but his HR/FB% was a career high. That’s why there’s such a big difference between those two. Not sure about how the BIll James system works though.
I too am clueless on the James model
if anyone can find a writeup on it, I would be very appreciative.
by BraveBronco0121 on Jan 19, 2009 4:51 PM EST up reply actions
Take a look here, and read the comments too.
by mattdiaz4life on Jan 19, 2009 8:39 PM EST up reply actions
CHONE uses 2005, but probably doesn't weight it much.
CHONE uses peripherals big time, while Marcel only looks at actual ERA.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
Yeah those CHONE
projections are pretty crazy, especially if you look at their long term forecasts.
I think it’s pretty safe to say that McCann is a solid .300 hitter with medium amounts of pop.
If I was projecting I’d go with:
530 PA .306/.372/.535 .380 wOBA
The real question I have is what do we consider his defense to be? There isn’t a good metric for catcher defense and most places don’t even try. I can’t say I’ve seen enough of him behind the plate to get a great feel for it, but I feel as though I’ve heard as at least an average to above average fielder as opposed to a bad one.
Well, I was going to save this for another thread...
but McCann seems to be at best an average defender. His four year CS% look like this:
2005 – 18.5%
2006 – 22.2%
2007 – 19.5%
2008 – 18.4%
Overall, that’s significantly below league average (~36%). Other teams seem to know this – no qualifying catcher faced more stolen base attempts than McCann.
His data when it comes to blocking the plate seems to be good, giving up .315 WP+PB per game, second amongst qualifying catchers.
by BraveBronco0121 on Jan 19, 2009 4:42 PM EST up reply actions
I was going to say that he appears to be a sound backstop, purely from a visual standpoint, but that his “arm” needs alot of work.
I’ve got nothing to back that up though, that’s just what I see.
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Jan 19, 2009 4:55 PM EST up reply actions
I can see that
though my opinion differs slightly. To me it’s not so much his arm as it is our pitchers. I haven’t looked into this that deeply but all our guys seem to be average to slightly below average in their delivery speed to the plate. This causes Heap to rush and it’s almost like his “big” body can’t keep up with his feet/arm. I’m looking forward to seeing how his “conditioning” impacts this aspect of his game this year.
"Debated ya right not one person agreed with me" by ATLsportsfrk on Dec 27, 2008 6:31 PM EST
Interesting thought. I’ll have to pay more attention to that this season.
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Jan 19, 2009 5:00 PM EST up reply actions
Excellent stuff there...
it’s the kind of thing that, as of now, we can’t see in the numbers. Measurement of catcher defense is still lagging behind that of the other fielders.
by BraveBronco0121 on Jan 19, 2009 5:24 PM EST up reply actions
Also, for what it's worth...
according to Tom Tango’s 2008 Fan’s Scouting Report, McCann graded out as slightly below average.
by BraveBronco0121 on Jan 19, 2009 6:18 PM EST up reply actions
That's interesting.
The danger with catcher defensive ratings is that they are notoriously difficult. From what I’ve read, despite the fact that, say, Ivan Rodriguez has a low passed ball rate it’s conceivable and some of that data might back up the point, that he calls fewer low breaking balls. Is that good defense? Is play calling so important that it makes up for defensive short comings?
Whatever the case may be, McCann is a huge bat, enough so that if he were to keep it up and stay at catcher he could be on top of several leaderboards for all-time catchers. He’s very, very good. Of course, he’s also a baby still, so that could all change drastically.
As I said, defensive metrics for catchers are lacking...
so personally, I’m fine with projecting McCann to be a perfectly average defensive catcher.
by BraveBronco0121 on Jan 19, 2009 9:07 PM EST up reply actions
what i would say to that is it could be a Braves philosophy… Maddux was never very good at keeping runners from stealing on him if i remember correctly. although i could be completely wrong here. Glavine and Smoltz were the same. they all seemed to have a worry about the batter mentality. Which could be an underlying cause in your belief as well.
"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."
I think you are right, there does appear to be an underlying philosophy of ignoring base-runners, at least under certain circumstances. Not sure whether it is the largest factor but it certainly is part of the equation.
"Debated ya right not one person agreed with me" by ATLsportsfrk on Dec 27, 2008 6:31 PM EST
Part of it, if I recall, was the Braves pitching philosophy during the 90’s and early 2000’s (and maybe still today). But, typically, the pitchers were told to just focus on the batter and not let the runner get to their heads and that probably has something to do with it. I remember people always saying Eddie Perez was a good defensive catcher, but Maddux essentially ignored base runners.
530 PAs with a .380 wOBA sounds good to me. I wonder how much his weight loss will affect his bat.
One of the amazing things about McCann is that you don’t expect someone with his size and power to have such excellent bat control. He’s one of those foul off close pitches instead of the pitch types and his awesome bat control allows him to do that.
As far as I can tell...
McCann was the only hitter in baseball last year with both a .200+ ISO and an 85%+ contact rate other than Albert Pujols. That’s really damn impressive.
by BraveBronco0121 on Jan 19, 2009 4:46 PM EST up reply actions
+1
Great find.
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Jan 19, 2009 4:57 PM EST up reply actions
i am unaware of what wOBA stands for… could i get a quick explanation please? just how it is formulated would be fine or a link where i can find this.
"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."
From Inside the Book
There is a good explanation here. You might have to increase the font size on your browser though.
"Debated ya right not one person agreed with me" by ATLsportsfrk on Dec 27, 2008 6:31 PM EST
And on the topic of McCann’s improved plate discipline, he got Lasik between the 2007 and 2008 seasons, right? Being able to actually see the ball’s gotta help.
That would seem to help...
and it seems to be a point in favor of his improved plate discipline being a new level of performance instead of a fluke.
by BraveBronco0121 on Jan 19, 2009 4:47 PM EST up reply actions
My take
I think a couple of things will affect his performance this year. Disclaimer, all of these points ignore the potential injuries he will endure given the beating catchers take throughout the year (wasn’t sure if you’re going to take that into account). It’s just too difficult to predict how the frequency or significance each injury will have on his playing time/production.
1. I think the Braves signed Ross in order to reduce, or at least spread out, McCanns playing time. We obviously want to avoid the drop off in performance after the All-Star break we’ve seen the last two years. Dependent upon what happens in the coming months (potentially signing/trading for a LF) I feel we’ve got a good shot at the playoffs this year and having a “fresh” McCann is critical to going deep. In my opinion I think he’ll max out around 500 PA’s.
2. McCann has three seasons under his belt now and though hitters progress more gradually than pitchers I think we’ll see similar xbh numbers (to 2008) this year even with the reduced playing time. As you mentioned, he showed excellent plate discipline last year but I have a feeling the Braves are going to want a little more aggression out of him. I can see him settling in around a 9.0% to 9.5% BB rate, which would slightly reduce his OBP, with minor upticks in his BA and SLG.
I’m trying my hand at projections for the first time this year and I haven’t triple check my numbers yet but my guess would be something like – 510 PAs, 37 2B’s, 20 HR’s, .310/.379/.535/.914
Hope that helps. Looking forward to seeing the final numbers.
"Debated ya right not one person agreed with me" by ATLsportsfrk on Dec 27, 2008 6:31 PM EST
Slightly off-topic
but this is one thing that really bothers me about Terry Pendleton. I seem to always be reading about how he wants certain hitters to be “more aggressive” – it’s what we heard about KJ coming into 2008, and his walk rate fell off significantly.
by BraveBronco0121 on Jan 19, 2009 5:26 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed - I absolutely hate the philosophy
I know that TP did some wondrous things for the organization but I’m a big proponent of replacing him as the hitting coach. You see what a guy like Rudy Jaramillo has done down in Texas (see Mark Derosa) and you know there are better options out there. My biggest problem with his philosophy is that I feel he doesn’t realize a standardized approach is not the answer for everyone.
"Debated ya right not one person agreed with me" by ATLsportsfrk on Dec 27, 2008 6:31 PM EST
Indeed..
I despised the way he handled Andruw. All of this “go the other way with it” stuff just doesn’t work for a guy like Andruw who has pretty mediocre contact skills. It would have been far better to council him to lay off the breaking stuff away and focus on working the count until he gets a pitch to drive.
by BraveBronco0121 on Jan 19, 2009 5:44 PM EST up reply actions
I think I remember reading in Moneyball that having a hitting coach who was actually a good hitter stinks, because they always want you to be like them.
Maybe....
Frenchy should be the Braves hitting coach!!!
best defensive shortstop in baseball hahahahahahahahahah (omar visquel)
It seems like we have some consensus here...
Brian McCann 2009 Community Projection:
520 PA, .380 wOBA, average defense.
Good for 48 runs above replacement.
by BraveBronco0121 on Jan 19, 2009 9:27 PM EST reply actions
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