Thoughts On Wren & Lowe

by mrrich95 on Jan 14, 2009 9:23 PM EST Comment 24 comments

I'll be the first to admit that I jumped the gun on Frank Wren after we lost Smoltz. I was thinking he didn't even want us to compete at all this year. After seeing him aggresively sign Derek Lowe, he made me change my mind that we are in good hands. He knew that the Mets allready made their offer and knew that Philly were interested in Lowe as well. I was just happy to see he didn't want a big time player like Lowe go to a division rival.

I really believe we now have the most well rounded rotation in the NL East but now the question is the offense. It's obvious most are high on Adam Dunn and I definately am as well. I think we can still get Dunn at a bargain. A heart of the order with Jones, Dunn, & McCann would be oh so sweet. I also like the idea of Nick Swisher. A good young switch hitter. He's shown he can be a 30-100 guy too. We'll just have to wait and see what happens to the offense. I believe right now we are a dark horse for the wild card. The big bat we get will determine if we can compete for the division title.

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+1

Spot-on.

by gondeee on Jan 14, 2009 9:29 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Just so we're clear

What was the offer on the table from the Mets, and did the Phillies have an offer at all? I know several figures were tossed around as being available from the Mets, and that Boras denied one or more of them.

by mattdiaz4life on Jan 14, 2009 10:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Mets offered 3 years, 36 Million.

I heard that the Phillies had interest but I’m not sure that they made an offer.

by nick9314 on Jan 14, 2009 10:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don’t think there’s any way we sign Dunn. Simply put, he wants too much money. I fully expect a trade for Swisher (not Nady) in the next few weeks.

As far as the pitching and the offense…it’s important to remember that it all starts with pitching. Those Braves teams in the mid-90’s weren’t exactly knocking the cover off the ball and yet we found ourselves in the playoffs every year. Why? Starting pitching…

I’m feeling pretty good about ’09…

by beeswax on Jan 14, 2009 10:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I tend to fall into the opposite camp. I think we should trade for Nady over Swisher. Each of the players have question marks, Nady is 30 years old and Swisher is 28 years old and only signed through next year and Swisher doesn’t hit for a high average his career average is only .244. They each have similar power number with Nady averaging 21 home runs a season and Swisher averaging 28 home runs a season. They each get on base about the same meaning that they are high an base guys. I guess the things that separates them for me is that Nady hits for a higher average but since he is a Boras client and only signed for one more year they balance out. I would not be disappointed with either.

by jack dein on Jan 14, 2009 11:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

No offense, but that’s a fairly lazy comparison. A few things, if you don’t mind:

Instead of just comparing their “average HRs” why not look at their career SLG? Isolated Power would also be a better indicator. Perhaps, XBH/H? Just a few suggestions.

Career
Nady: .458 SLG, .178 ISO, 35% of his hits are XBH
Swisher: .451 SLG, .208 ISO, 44% of his hits are XBH

Swisher should still be right in the middle of his peak, as you mentioned, whereas Nady should just now be entering his decline years. The fact that UZR/150 thinks Nady played a 2.6 defense in left field compared to Swisher’s 35.6 is another factor that favors Swisher.

Saying they both got on base “about the same” is probably what offends me the most, and where I think Swisher most clearly separates himself from Nady.

Career
Swisher: .354 OBP, 13.9% BB, 0.63 BB/K, .279 BABIP
Nady: .335 OBP, 6.0 BB%, 0.32 BB/K, .316 BABIP

So, Swisher clearly has an advantage in this situation, and is obviously not doing so simply because of his batting average. Swisher is also not a rental player, and is signed to a very nice contract for the next couple years. In summation…Swisher I am very much okay with, as long as the haul we have to give up isn’t crazy. If we end up throwing away too much on Nady I’ll be furious.

I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.

by Smoltz's Beard on Jan 15, 2009 12:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You get way into numbers. A true baseball person can watch a player play and know that he can help his team. They will put up about the same but numbers but the fact that Swisher has a low batting average and he does walk a lot. Walks don’t hurt but when he isn’t getting as many hits as Nady then I think Nady is the better option.

by jack dein on Jan 15, 2009 12:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

A true baseball person would realize that statistical analysis is a great way of judging a player’s worth. Ever heard of Theo Epstein? How about Billy Beane? Hell, even Wren is a self-professed stat-head.

by bravesfan91 on Jan 15, 2009 7:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No…they won’t put up the same numbers, and that’s what I’m trying to convey to you. And if you don’t mind me asking, how exactly did you get those “power numbers”? Last season was the first year that Nady ever hit over 21 HRs, so I’m not sure how he averages that.

It’s fairly obvious that Nady is not the better option in just about every possible way, except that it will probably cost less to get him. And seriously, batting average and hits? Really? That’s what you’re hanging your hat on?

I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.

by Smoltz's Beard on Jan 15, 2009 9:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I love how you guys bitch about andruw jones and francouer having low batting averages and you want to take on swisher. Someone who knows baseball also knows that numbers aren’t the only thing that makes a player good. Nady is a high character and a hustle player. I’m not saying that I want Nady over Swisher because the good and bad for each player balance out. I personally think that Nady is the better player but he is only signed for one more and doesn’t walk as much as Swisher. Swisher has a low average but is signed for a few more years. So basically it comes down to a personal choice.

by jack dein on Jan 15, 2009 1:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

well, francoeur didn’t walk or hit for power either.

BIG JOE SUCK ONE

by bigjoe on Jan 15, 2009 1:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I’m down with the eye evaluation method, to a point. It also needs to be tempered with the stats. And frankly, just watching the two, Swisher is better. He’s a better athlete, he’s more versatile, and he’s a better hustler. Add that in with his more consistent stats, he’s the better player. Nady has constantly underperformed until this past season.

by cbwilk on Jan 15, 2009 1:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Like I said above it comes down to an opinion thing you guys seem to like Swisher and I like Nady. I can’t explain what it is but there is just something about the guy that I like that can’t be measured by stats. I’m still not totally convinced that we will get either of them though. They both seem to be drawing a lot of interest and will probably take more than there worth to get them.

by jack dein on Jan 15, 2009 1:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

First of all, I never bitched about Andruw’s hitting on a consistent basis until 2007, and I’m pretty sure it was justifiable at that point. Second, the reason I bitch about FYF is not his BA…it’s his ability to get on base, something that Swisher does with relative ease.

Career
FYF: 5.1% BB, 20.0% K, 0.27 BB/K
Swisher: 13.9% BB, 25.5% K, 0.63 BB/K

I mean, it’s not even close…

I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.

by Smoltz's Beard on Jan 15, 2009 1:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Actually, I believe Swisher is signed through 2011…

by beeswax on Jan 15, 2009 9:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

jack Dein

Why is Nady a better option. And how in the world can you just watch someone and know they can help the team. I would strongly advise you take a look at the stats next time you want to compare players.

by That a boy on Jan 15, 2009 1:48 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Only Joe Morgan can do that.

by Land-Man on Jan 15, 2009 11:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

“he just looks like a ballplayer. he’s got grit and determination. and most importantly, HE HUSTLES ON EVERY BALL”

BIG JOE SUCK ONE

by bigjoe on Jan 15, 2009 12:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He needs to be more consistent! Dave Concepcion was the most consistent player I’ve ever seen and the stats don’t tell you this, but he knew how to win!

by VictorW on Jan 15, 2009 1:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You know who knows how to win? Robert Horry. Almost two full hands worth of rings on his paws, and was hardly a major contributor to any of those Rockets, Lakers or Spurs squads. It’s a good omen for any team which Horry decides to go to, because that all but guarantees a trip to the NBA Finals.

That being said, I think the Braves missed on Orlando Cabrera. That guy is like the Horry of MLB. Maybe not quite to the championship, but considering only eight teams get in in MLB instead of 16, it’s still an achievement, and Cabrera seems to only go to teams that get in… Red Sox/Angels/Angels/White Sox…

No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.

by royhobbs on Jan 15, 2009 1:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

hardly a contributor…. do u now remember the 3 he nailed to essentially kill any prospect of Sacramento ever winning a championship in the next 5 years ( or longer we dont know how long that shot could linger in their collective pyches)… he plays great defense and hits threes. in short he is the old version of James POsey

"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."

by Swo12bv on Jan 15, 2009 3:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

or an older version

of Teyshawn Prince?

"Success is not final. Failure is not fatal. It is the courage to continue that counts." - Sir Winston Churchill -

by justincredubil02 on Jan 15, 2009 3:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He’s a 6’10 small forward that is afraid to play power forward because Karl Malone once kicked him in the nuts during a rebound. He shoots way too many threes, because he has no inside game. I’ll admit to the fact that he has hit many, many crucial threes in the post-seasons (vs. Orlando, vs. Sacramento, vs. Detroit), but it’s like he does absolutely nothing but tread water in mediocrity until he gets to the playoffs when he floats outside of the perimeter waiting for the opportunity to shoot threes when a guy with his length and wingspan should be cutting through the lane for easy layups and dunks.

No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.

by royhobbs on Jan 15, 2009 4:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs