Braves Zeroing in on Derek Lowe
by gondeee on Jan 13, 2009 9:05 AM EST
in Braves Related Free Agents
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PrintPer a report early this morning from SI.com's Jon Heyman:
Free-agent right-hander Derek Lowe is in serious discussions with the Atlanta Braves, SI.com has learned.
The Braves are trying hard to finalize a deal that would solidify their rotation. The deal for Lowe is believed to be for close to $60 million over four years. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution first reported the Braves were offering about $15 million per year in their efforts to beat the rival New York Mets to Lowe.
I find it most intriguing that the main competitors for Lowe's services are other NL East teams -- the Mets and Phillies. I wonder if that adds extra incentive for the Braves to get the deal done.
At the beginning of the off-season and through most of December I was not really for signing Lowe. He is clearly the Braves third or fourth choice, behind Jake Peavy, Ryan Dempster, and A.J. Burnett. Back in November, I warned that Lowe's numbers were helped considerably by the friendly pitching confines of Dodger Stadium, and those numbers haven't changed.
| Year | Home ERA | Road ERA |
| 2005 | 3.74 | 3.48 |
| 2006 | 3.18 | 4.13 |
| 2007 | 3.51 | 4.19 |
| 2008 | 2.30 | 4.42 |
For the last three years the contrast has been startling, and that still concerns me. Lowe does have a career 3.54 ERA at Turner Field, so perhaps that home field advantage will translate from L.A. to Atlanta.
All in all I'm coming around to the idea of Derek Lowe at the top of the rotation. I still don't think he's a bona fide number-one starter, but he's a quality 1.5 guy, and a pretty good stabilizing force to have in that number one slot. The proposed contract is probably a little more than I'd like to pay, especially in that last year or two, but in this market that seems to be what you have to pay to get anything over mediocre.
If the Braves really are this motivated, and they put on as good a sales pitch as reports say they did, I wonder if we could see a decision from Lowe by the end of the week.
Another interesting side note to these contract talks is our sudden willingness to be in serious negotiations with Scott Boras. When was the last time we signed a Boras client?
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Not sure I like 4 years...
but maybe it has to be that way.
I definitely don’t like four years, at all.
by mattdiaz4life on Jan 13, 2009 9:38 AM EST up reply actions
I've long advocated getting Lowe
he’s a very underrated pitcher who can be booked for 200+ innings per year. He gets a lot of ground balls, which is nice when you have an excellent defender at short like Yunel. He hardly ever walks anyone – rare for sinkerballers – and that makes up for the fact that he doesn’t get a lot of swings and misses.
Overall, if we get Lowe, we’ll have two guys who can be counted on for 200 innings of above average pitching each in Lowe and Vasquez. Jurrjens’ peripherals matched up well with his ERA last year, so I don’t think there’s much room for regression there – maybe he picks up .25 points on his ERA, but 2008 was not a fluke for him. That’s a pretty good 1-2-3 punch even if none of them pitch like a true #1.
by BraveBronco0121 on Jan 13, 2009 9:22 AM EST reply actions
Necessity
They need pitchers, and the list has been cut to where Lowe is the most appealing guy left. I think $15mil/year is a little high, but if the Braves succeed in landing him, I don’t think it’s horrific, and like all other moves, will learn to deal with it, and hope for the best.
What seems promising is the fact that they’re looking past Boras, and seeing Derek Lowe as the pitcher they need. Not seeing Boras as the obstacle to overcome in order to get that one guy. Boras has been awfully quiet this offseason, and hasn’t quite been the same since the A-Rod debacle from two years ago. Maybe I’m being optimistic, but perhaps he’s losing his touch; A-Rod negotiating with the Yankees through Goldman Sachs, Teixiera not getting the $200mil he was aspiring for, and Manny Ramirez is still unemployed instead of settling into a $20mil option year.
No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.
4 years seems alot.
What really sucks is that since its Boras, this won’t be resolved tomorrow. This most likely drags into next week at least. It would be nice though, if at the Kawakami press conference Wren said, “By the way, we got Derek Lowe too. POW! And we traded Martin Prado for Ryan Ludwick. POW POW!”
FIRE FRANK WREN! GO RED SOX! I HATE THE BRAVES! SAY GOODBYE TO MY 9 GAME FLEX PLAN MONEY! YOU'LL NEVER SEE ME AGAIN!
Even if he’s not an ace, which would you rather have:
A pitching staff with a couple of 2’s, a couple 3’s and a 4 or 5?
ORRRR
A ptiching staff with a 3 and then some 5’s and 6’s? (end of 2008)
FIRE FRANK WREN! GO RED SOX! I HATE THE BRAVES! SAY GOODBYE TO MY 9 GAME FLEX PLAN MONEY! YOU'LL NEVER SEE ME AGAIN!
I am warming up to the idea too
I was completely against D Lowe at first, but now that I see everything through my 20/20 hindsight vision, this could be a good thing for Atlanta. Lowe at 4 years means that in 2010/11 our rotation could potentially be the best in the majors a la Chicago this year. Jerrjens should be Ace-calibre by then, throw in Hanson, Vasquez, potentially Hudson (team option in 2010 i believe) and Lowe and you have yourself quite a rotation!
"Success is not final. Failure is not fatal. It is the courage to continue that counts." - Sir Winston Churchill -
by justincredubil02 on Jan 13, 2009 9:42 AM EST reply actions
Our rotation could be astounding in a couple of years if the Lowe thing gets done. But that would be when he would most likely not be able to retain his #1 to #2 spot type pitcher. But put Jurjjens and Hanson in the top two spots and Huddy in the mix and we would be set.
It’s funny though to see all of the people that hated the idea of Lowe when he was an unlikely Brave and now that we’ve made an offer those same people begin to see him with those Braves colored glasses.
by Fischerking on Jan 13, 2009 11:08 AM EST up reply actions
Doesn’t it seem like a pretty large jump in salary compared to what the Mets were offering? Is Wren trying to just throw money at him hoping that he can lock him up quickly?
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
Right…forgot about that.
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Jan 13, 2009 10:27 AM EST up reply actions
4/60mil is total overkill
I was OK with throwing a high annual salary at Lowe for 3 years (say 3/48-51mil), but guaranteeing a fourth year AND making it 15 million per just doesn’t seem that wise to me. Maybe the market for SP continues to inflate and Lowe making 15mil at age 39 won’t look that bad, but right now I’m not too thrilled about it.
by get swoll yunel on Jan 13, 2009 10:16 AM EST up reply actions
Lowe, Vazquez, Jurrjens, Reyes, Kawakami (plus depth that includes: Campillo, Morton, Parr, Hanson, and possibly Glavine) make up a pretty good rotation. Having two guys at the top who can pitch 200+ innings of 3.50-4.50era ball is a huge benefactor with a young, developing staff.
Now, all we need is a guy that can hit the ball pretty hard…
Reyes over Campillo? Surely you jest…
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Jan 13, 2009 9:59 AM EST up reply actions
Probably the all-important lefty factor.
No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.
The lefty factor is an important reason, and is the main reason he should be number 4 over Kawakami. However, I still think Reyes has alot of potential and will put up better numbers than last season. When it comes down to becoming more consistent, you have to give the guy the ball more. Campillo was a solid pitcher for us last season, but how long will it take the other teams to figure him out. He gets by with changing the speed of his pitchers (I’ll admit hes a really good at doing this), but lacks anything else if his offspeed pitches aren’t working that night. I like him better in the long relief/spot starter role.
by bwellnjonesco on Jan 13, 2009 10:19 AM EST up reply actions
Sorry but I’ll take the guy with a 3.91 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 158 IP last year over the guy with a 5.81 ERA and whopping 1.65 WHIP in 113 IP last year, even if the first guy is RH.
Needing a lefty in your rotation makes no sense to me at all.
by get swoll yunel on Jan 13, 2009 10:23 AM EST up reply actions
If the lefty factor was of importance, Jo Jo wouldn’t have been the first pitcher up on the trading block (considering he was the only lefty starter who was proven healthy)
Potential is an extremely important factor in deciding an pitcher’s overall worth, but it’s not going to factor into him making the team ahead of Campillo, Glavine (if healthy) and Morton.
by Whodunnit?4040 on Jan 13, 2009 10:25 AM EST up reply actions
If Campillo can put up an ERA under 4.00 over 150 IP again, then I will give the guy a million dollars of my own money…maybe not a million, but definitely 100k…
by bwellnjonesco on Jan 13, 2009 10:33 AM EST up reply actions
The fact that he is a LH pitcher just simply isn’t that important. I also don’t understand why you’re so anti Campillo, who as you stated pitched well for us as early as last season…but then you have faith in JoJo, who was awful as early as last season. And your reasoning as to why Campillo will fail? Teams will figure him out…that’s an incredibly weak argument. How comes teams won’t figure JoJo out?
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Jan 13, 2009 10:31 AM EST up reply actions
I’m not anit-Campillo, but the fact that he is a 31 year old that throws an 86 mph fastball and those 150 innings he pitches for us are pretty much the only ML experience he has means that I don’t trust him in our rotation. Campillo came out of no where and pitched some fantastic ball for us, but didn’t do as well during the final stretch of the season. I don’t think he has the stuff to make it as a starter for another season (everybody knows what to expect from him), and I don’t think he is durable enough to make it as a starter for another season. However, I think he would be terrific and very valuable in the bullpen.
JoJo, on the other hand, was still learning to pitch last season. And over the season, I believe he will be the better pitcher.
The lefty deal is very important. It has the potential to force an entire lineup off balance, benefiting the left handed pitcher and the right handing pitcher coming in after him. I wouldn’t make this that big of deal if we were arguing an established big league starter, but come on, Campillo has only had one good stretch.
by bwellnjonesco on Jan 13, 2009 10:55 AM EST up reply actions
You still have not made a strong case for JoJo. “Still learning to pitch last season”? He was completely horrific in every month except June, so it’s not like he was getting better as the season progressed.
I’ll take the hard evidence provided by Campillo any day of the week over your speculation.
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Jan 13, 2009 11:02 AM EST up reply actions
I remain very skeptical of Campillo as well but you just can’t take away his rotation spot after the way he pitched last year. He’s earned the right to be in the rotation until he pitches his way out of it.
Of course, I’m just predicting that Campillo will do just that. I could be wrong….but its my decision to think this way…
by bwellnjonesco on Jan 13, 2009 10:58 AM EST up reply actions
I don’t think there’s any way we sign Glavine at this point.
by mattdiaz4life on Jan 13, 2009 11:13 AM EST up reply actions
We don't have the money to get Glavine now.
We have at most 5 million to spend and if we trade for a bat, that will probably bump our salaries up some.
Lowe
He is the best pitcher left on the market. I feel we must sign him. Especially if it’s the Phillies and the Mets who we are bidding against. Even if we have to spend a little more to get him…….. :0)
Pretty sure the Phillies don’t have room in their payroll for him, and Minaya just loves the Latinos too much to seriously pursue Lowe.
/joking
by get swoll yunel on Jan 13, 2009 10:18 AM EST up reply actions
I have a feeling that smiley face is because the Braves are about to spend big on a FA, thus helping your case from the fanpost you made the other day…ISN’T IT!
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Jan 13, 2009 10:32 AM EST up reply actions
Done deal
Rotation might actually be solid.
"When I played pro football, I never set out to hurt anyone deliberately - unless it was, you know, important, like a league game or something"
-Dick Butkus
I am all for Derek Lowe. I believe with Lowe and an outfield bat we can be considered a wild card team. The home and away splits do scare me but guys lets face it how great were we on the road last year? We’re a home grown team and if Lowe can bring that 2 something era to Turner Field, I’ll be happy as hell with that. Now we definately have the potential to have 3, 15 game winners with Lowe, Vazquez and JJ. Like bwell said, the depth it would bring us is sick. We don’t have to worry about Lowe getting injured like we would have with A.J. 20 mill less is always a good thing too.
35
I agree that giving a 35 year old pitcher a 4 yr/$60mil deal is probably a bad idea.
However, using his home road splits to say that he is a product of Dodger Stadium is using a pretty limited viewpoint.
His ERA+ (which is park adjusted) is 124,118,131. His FIP (which is fielding independent) are all under 4 for the last 3 years, and is projected to stay there by Bill James, CHONE and Marcel for next year (see fangraphs).
I think short term this could be a great deal.
Yeah, $15 mil for his 39-year-old season doesn’t thrill me. But on the positive side, he was kind of a late bloomer and is the type of pitcher that I think can maintain his effectiveness late in his career.
Look at Braves pitchers
Look at people like Smoltz, Glavine and Maddux’s performances up until they were 39. They were still pretty dominant until they hit the dreaded 40. So I think he will be fine especially since he has a proven record of remaining healthy.
by Fischerking on Jan 13, 2009 11:21 AM EST up reply actions
Actually
You may have wanted to use xFIP here to prove your point, since it normalizes for HRs. People unfortunately don’t use xFIP as often as they should IMO, like here when it provides a good way to remove Dodger Stadium’s HR inflation.
Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball
Damn…that was a quick signing. Since the Mets offer was reported as being shot down, were there any other offers on the table?
I guess if Wren just wanted to throw money and get him to sign quickly it worked…
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Jan 13, 2009 10:55 AM EST reply actions
on to LF ... and Chipper
I like this rotation, and its long term potential when Hanson, Rohrbough and Locke are ready to challenge for slots.
Now it’s on to LF — really puzzling as to what they’re planning. I do believe in our managment but can’t figure their plan for left field. Are we really ready to take on Dunn’s glove and K’s? Sometimes a big discount can make an imperfect product worth owning. Maybe they’ve just decided to pursue a lefty hitting big bat because Diaz or a slimmer Andruw could platoon in left. Or maybe they’re waiting for the price to come down on Swisher or Nady.
And let’s not forget Chipper. Our critical superstar may be more favorably inclined towards management now that he see the respectable pitching staff they’ve assembled. And management better make sure to extend Chipper, because we’ll still want him around when Heyward is ready to join him in the middle of the order.
Well instead of 2 top of the rotation starters...
We got 3 2-4 starters, not too bad. But definitely a consolation prize.
more on Lowe
Lowe’s .6 HR/9 last year was his best since his spectacular 2002 season. His 1.9 BB/9 is his best ever, and will probably add a year to Bobby Cox’s life.
This is a well-timed signing, coming almost simulaneous with the Smoltz Boston press conference. In the time between losing John and the official announcement the Braves have managed to sign two impressive starters.
Kudos to top management (JS, McGuirk)for understanding the gravity of the PR problem when we lost Smoltz, and responding quickly and effectively.
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