From Top Prospect to Bust
Which Braves prospect in the post-1990 era was the biggest bust?
The term "bust" can be difficult to define with some prospects going to achieve moderate success but still falling significantly short of expectations. For the most part, I sought out players who were projected to be all-star caliber players but failed to materialize. I realize one player in particular is still relatively young and could still become a starter but he doesn’t appear to be on his way to becoming the superstar he was once projected to be and for my purposes, I will consider him a bust.
5. George Lombard- Peak Top 100 Ranking: #26. Though he was relatively raw when he was drafted, Lombard was touted as one of the best athletes to ever play in the organization. Originally committed to play RB at the University of Georgia, Lombard instead signed with the Braves as a 2nd Round pick in 94’. He had truly elite speed and plus power to boot. He made BA’s Braves’ Top 10 list 5 times, twice as the #2 prospect in the organization. His best minor league season came in 98’, when he slugged 22 HR, swiped 35 bases, batted .308, and posted a .951 OPS as a 22 year old in AA ball. High strikeout totals throughout his career and injury problems in 99’ stunted Lombard's growth as a player and he was never able to regain his stature within the organization. For all his physical talents, Lombard retired in 2006 with a career ML batting average of .220 while receiving more than 200 AB’s in a season just once.
4. Mike Kelly- Peak Top 100 Ranking: #19. The second overall pick in 1991 out of Arizona State began his pro career with the expectations placed upon him to become a big-time power threat at the ML level. Kelly never climbed higher than 4th on BA’s Braves’ Top ten prospect list but none the less was expected to become a star player. He struggled to hit for average as a pro but did post decent HR totals in the lower minors. Kelly was never able to establish himself as a full-time big leaguer and ended his career in 99’ with just 22 HR and a .300 OBP in over 680 AB’s. Kelly's reputation as a collegiate star and being a 2nd overall pick led to high expectations despite his modest success in the minor leagues.
3. Bruce Chen- Peak Top 100 Ranking: #4. BA rated him our #3 prospect in 97’ and #1 in both 98’ and 00’. Though not an overpowering pitcher, Chen dominated minor league hitters. In 98’, between AA and AAA, he posted a 3.09 era and struck out 193 batters in 163 innings while allowing only 123 hits. Three plus pitches in his fastball, curveball, and changeup, as well as plus commnad led to Greg Maddux comparisons by many scouts. He pitched well for the Braves in 2000 before being traded, along with Jimmy Osting for Andy Ashby. He bounced around the league for several seasons before having one nice season as a starter for Baltimore in 05’. He has been largely ineffective since and last pitched in the ML in 2007, when he struggled in 10 innings with the Rangers. While not projected to be an “ace”, Chen had very high expectations and by and large failed to deliver upon them. To be fair, Chen had some success in the majors but it was short lived and well below what was expected of him.
2. Andy Marte- Peak Top 100 Rating: #9. I alluded to being reluctant to label Marte as an official "bust" just yet due to the fact that he is still just 25 years old. However, his stalled development is a strong indicator that he will never live up to the expectations of superstardom once placed upon him. At his height, Marte was the premier 3B prospect in all of baseball. Projected to hit 30 HR annually and be a first rate defender at third base, Marte was a top 3 prospect in the Braves organization for 4 years running. Prior to the 04’ season, BA expected Marte to make his ML debut by “no later than September” as a 20 year old. Marte had all the physical tools to be one of the premier 3B in baseball and was touted as a player who “ooze[d] intangibles.” Though Marte has yet to produce at the big league level, he proved a great benefit to the Braves as a trade chip. In all, Marte netted the Braves 2 affordable years of Edgar Renteria, Jair Jurrjens, and Gorkys Hernandez. In all likelihood, Marte maxed out his value to the organization by virtue of the players he was used to acquire but when it comes to fulfilling his promise to become a great big leaguer himself, he has thus far proven to be a bust.
1. Wilson Betemit- Peak Top 100 Rating: #8. Betemit twice appeared as the number one prospect in the organization in both 2001 and 2002. Originally signed prior to his 16th birthday, Betemit sued the organization until he dropped the suit following his signing of a new contract. Betemit was touted as a five-tool talent at shortstop who had an advanced timetable for breaking into the big leagues. A switch-hitter and outstanding athlete, Betemit was also described as a player who thrived when challenged. The expectation was that Betemit would become a 20-20 man who hit for a high average and would deftly man a crucial defensive position. Betemit’s large frame eventually led him to outgrow shortstop but he was still viewed as a potential impact player at third base. He played well as a big leaguer in 05’ and 06’ in limited action until being traded prior to the deadline in 2006 to the Dodgers in exchange for Willy Aybar and Danys Baez. Since the time of the trade, Betemit has carved out a career as a versatile sub but has failed to establish himself as a starter. Aside from Jason Heyward and Andruw Jones, Betemit was the most hyped Braves' prospect in recent memory but has failed to deliver upon those lofty expectations.
Sighs of relief from: Kevin McGlinchy, Kyle Davies, Luis Rivera, and Matt Belisle
I changed the order of the list several times, mainly concerning the placement of Lombard and Chen. I’m sure you all will not hesitate to criticize and I encourage you to point out any players you think I may have overlooked. I hope everyone enjoyed the list.
Scouting Reports, Prospect Rankings, and Statistics accredited to Baseball-Reference, Baseball America (Namely Bill Ballew), and The Baseball Cube
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Comments
I’m sure many did. I think the expectations for both were so high it was difficult to distinguish though. I gave the edge to Betemit for the time difference. He was hyped up by the organization from the time he signed as a 15 year old (which is against the rules) up until the day he was traded. Marte’s arrival was long awaited as well but Betemit was well known prior to becoming a top prospect
"Fools rush in where fools have been before"
nice list
I didn’t follow the minors/prospects back then, but do you know who fell off the face of the baseball planet?
Charles Thomas
I thought that guy was great when we brought him up and was disappointed when he got traded to Oakland. And then….nothing. Where is he now?
You’re right about Chuckie T falling off the planet, but the thing about him was that he was never considered a prospect. In fact, during Spring Training the year he eventually got called up, he told me (in minor league camp cause he wasn’t even in contention for a spot in big league camp) he hoped he’d be able to win a backup job on one of the teams. That’s a long way from where he ended up, so he did Ok for himself. Fortunately for the Braves, they were able to sell high on him. It’s a shame his career flamed out so quick, he’s a great guy.
I'm new on here
But you played in the Braves organization?
by mattdiaz4life on Jan 13, 2009 1:13 AM EST up reply actions
No, I just go to a ton of minor league games and get autographs so I end up talking with the guys a bunch.
I live in Norfolk and go to games there, in Sailsbury, MD (Delmarva Shorebirds), Woodbridge, VA (Potomac Nationals), Zebulon, NC (Carolina Mudcats), and Waldorf, MD (Southern Maryland Blue Crabs, Indy ball) regularly, with some other places thrown in occasionally. So right there I get to see each of the full season teams that the Braves field at least a few times a year, with Richmond (soon Gwinnett) and Myrtle Beach the most.
I also go to Spring Training for a week each year, mostly spending the time at a few different minor league camps. And I did live in Charlotte, NC for about 6 years and I could go see about 8 different teams pretty regularly there.
Pretty interesting list. I’m sure there are a ton of other guys that could be considered, but great list. The funny thing is, I saw all of these guys but Kelly a bunch in the minors and they were all amazing at AA and below. In AAA, Marte, Betemit, and Lombard all started to show their true nature. Chen was always really good, and he still had a respectable Major League career, nothing great, but he was around for a while, but yeah, total bust considering his prospect status.
Personally, I thought Chen was overvalued based on the fact that his stuff wasn’t exceptional, but I tried to completely ignore any personal opinions I held about who was over or under valued in making the list. I’d take the guy with plus stuff and questionable command every time over the guy with solid stuff and plus command. If the guy with the plus stuff does learn to harness his offerings, you have a standout performer at the ML level. But those guys who rely on command without plus stuff have a thin margin for error and though they are less likely to flame out, they are also less likely to become good ML pitchers. Technique can be taught but physical skills are for the most part either there or not there. I had forgotten how well Chen pitched in 2000. He was much better than I had remembered
"Fools rush in where fools have been before"
That right there is a great assessment of why Chen didn’t work out; he was all about trickeration. He and Odalis Perez came up at the same time and both were getting hyped pretty highly, but Chen had a slight edge until Odalis came up and pitched so well in the playoffs. Odalis had much better stuff but wasn’t as refined and exactly what you said happened, he learned how to harness it and was more successful.
On a fun side note, those two guys were so cool when they were coming up. I took a picture of them sitting in the stands together charting during a game in Greenville and got them both to sign it later and gave them each a copy. As far as I know, Odalis still has his up in his house.
What about these guys for your consideration
Based on how we were teased/brainwashed about how good they were (or were going to be).
1. Kevin Millwood
2. Jason Marquis
3. Mike Mordecai (maybe???)
4. Jarrod Saltallamacchia
5. Joey Devine (in atlanta he was a HUGE bust, but not so much now…)
"Success is not final. Failure is not fatal. It is the courage to continue that counts." - Sir Winston Churchill -
by justincredubil02 on Jan 13, 2009 10:00 AM EST reply actions
Very true. 140+ wins, 4 15+ win seasons, two sub 3.00 era’s, and a no hitter. I would have loved to see how Millwood would have fared had he stayed in Atlanta. Pitching in hitters parks and the tougher league have taken a toll. He and Wainwright probably wouldn’t have allowed the Braves to slip as far as they have. Those two were the homegrown pitchers the Braves have sorely lacked the past few years. Which reminds me of another list I prepared but have yet to post. Anyone interested in looking at what type of team the Braves could be fielding if they had merely kept their own talent?
"Fools rush in where fools have been before"
That’d be an interesting list. One team I think was always really bad at keeping their own talent was the Mets. Norfolk used to be their AAA team and my dad and I one time figured out a pretty beast team of former Met/Met prospects that they let get away only to flourish somewhere else.
if you wanna play that game, do it with natspos that played in harrisburg that went by the wayside. just…yipes. seriously depressing
BIG JOE SUCK ONE
I’m sure you’re right about that one. Frankly, I think you could take any team and make a pretty respectable collection of the guys the let get away.
The all Natspos would be one of the more impressive. Atlanta’s team would be decent offensively, aging starting pitching, weak bullpen, and a strong bench. The lineup I came up with looks like this.
CF R. Furcal, SS Y. Escobar, 3B C. Jones, RF J. Dye, C B. McCann, 2B M. DeRosa, LF K. Johnson, and IB A. LaRoche
Rotation:
Wainwright, Millwood/ Schmidt, Marquis, Davies, Glavine/ Harrison/ Hanson
Bench:
Betemit, Saltalamacchia, Blanco, Francoeur, Helms
Bullpen
Devine, Acosta, Boyer, Horacio Ramirez, Dan Meyer, Merkin Valdez, and Zach Miner
Pitching staff is less than impressive.
"Fools rush in where fools have been before"
Smoltzie probably has a spot here somewhere, be it in the rotation or the ’pen.
by mattdiaz4life on Jan 13, 2009 3:22 PM EST up reply actions
I think Kelly was the biggest bust. Betemit at least has become a pretty valuable utility guy. Lombard hung around for awhile too. Kelly was a complete disaster.
Also unless Jojo Reyes turns things around pretty soon he’d have to go on the list.
Betemit has become a nice utility guy. The fact that Betemit was such a big deal in the organization from such a young age certainly influenced my placement. We were hearing about Betemit for 6 or 7 years, similar to the way we have with Teheran. Kelly’s lack of dominance in the minors tempered expectations to a degree. But then again the expectations were ridiculous when he was drafted
"Fools rush in where fools have been before"

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