Top Ten Prospects: Starting Pitchers Edition.
by ejruiz on Aug 29, 2008 4:44 AM EDT
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Print- RP Tommy Hanson: We've been burned before by apparent aces in the making, but there's no reason to punish this kid for the failures of others. He's more highly regarded than any of his recent predecesors and for good reason.
- LP Cole Rohrbough: After a promotion to A+ ball, the ERA is finally matching up to the peripherals. He's brought the walks down at the higher level at the cost of some Ks, but he's still striking out plenty of guys.
- RP Kris Medlen: The unexpected move from the bullpen to the rotation has yielded amazing results. He was a well liked prospect as a reliever and his value can only grow now that he's a successful starter.
- LP Todd Redmond: Trading Tyler Yates to the Pirates for this kid is quietly turning into a great move. This guy has overcome a lack of pure stuff with great control and smart pitching, which is better than the oft found opposite combination.
- LP Edgar Osuna: This kid is one of my personal favorites and he's following up a great first year in the Braves organization with a very solid sophomore effort.
- LP Jeff Locke: The numbers aren't quite the, but the stuff certainly is. He's overcoming a bad start and some inconsistency overall, but he still has awesome potential.
- LP Steve Evarts: This might be the surprise of the list, but the kid is just lights out when he's healthy. This is almost entirely a potential choice, but I believe in him. You should, too.
- LP Scott Diamond: Here's a guy that I know some were high on before this season, but was not on my radar before the season. Nothing about his stat sheet drops your jaw, but everything looks good across the board.
- RP Ryne Reinoso: This should read just like Diamond's comments, just a notch worse. Lots of people are high on him now, but I'm not totally sold.
- LP Jose Ortegano: Another personal favorite here, but it's hard to overlook his dip in production after his rock solid opening act last year. Hasn't really pitched in about two months, so injuries might have held him back.
This FanPost does not express the views or opinions of Talking Chop.
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Notes.
This was really hard for me. We have a lot of talented pitchers and some other solid performers that garnered consideration. I actually had to separate SP and RP because there’s just too many guys worth mentioning and the comparison is extremely difficult. Apologies to James Parr, Richard Sullivan and everyone in between. As with the hitter before, I chose to largely ignore those prospects that have seen action for Atlanta and those in the lowest levels of the minors. Well, feel free to have at it and I’ll have the Relievers Edition up soon. Cheers!
Here we go again: http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/
Now this list is tough.....
The hitters were much easier for me personally to list. Pitchers depend so much on the defense behind them that it’s hard to tell what numbers are real…..Jeff Locke is why I believe this to be true. I’ve watched Jeff pitch a lot this year, and I’ve seen many games where the defense just stinks, and many of their mistakes don’t show up in the box score. Lots of times if the defense had held it together, Locke’s record would be much better. I know there are some numbers that aren’t affected by defense, but a lot are. Several times I saw an inning extended because of mental defensive mistakes that should have ended an inning, yet extended it. But I digress….
So having said all that, here’s my list:
1. Hanson
2. Diamond
3. Locke
4. Osuna
5. Reynoso
6. Rohrbough (never been completely sold on him)
7. Vines (the Braves REALLY believe in this guy)
8. Medlen
9. Redmond
10. Barrett (one of my favorites – I believe he’ll turn things around….)
Speaking of Locke....
Just read this in the Rome paper:
“Also, the Braves announced that pitcher Jeff Locke had been placed on the Danville roster, but that was done only to protect his arm. The Atlanta organization wants Locke to rest the remainder of the season after making 27 starts for Rome.”
well
everybody is gonna like one player more than another and stuff like that but I believe Rohrbough and Locke have similar potential. Heck alot of people like Locke more than Rouhbough.
I go with Hanson, Rohrbough, Locke then others.
But its a good list that you have here, hopefully some of these guys helps us out in the future.
braves#1
Braves' minor league pitching prospects
Here, you have to put a lot of stock in getting the job done above the A level of the system. Over three decades of following such things, I have seen a lot of very good A-level pitchers bomb at the AA and AAA levels. So when I include a prospect on this list who has not pitched above A-ball, I am doing it because I think the kid has a durable physical build, good stuff, and is still young enough to have time to thrive in the system. This isn’t just about W-L records.
Thomas Hanson has to be put in the #1 position. He is getting it done at AA this year at the age of 22. He already has two plus major league pitches, and he will have time next year to work on command and changing speeds.
After Hanson, we get into some guesswork, since the A-level pitchers have the best pure stuff, while a couple of the AA and AAA pitchers have developed better command.
1. Thomas Hanson
2. Cole Rohrbough
3. Todd Redmond
4. James Parr
5. Edgar Osuna
6. Jeff Locke
7. Scott Diamond
8. Ryne Reynoso
9. Chris Vines
10. Kris Medlen
Hanson
No one is saying he is an ace in the making. Most scouts agree he has middle of the rotation stuff. Not that that is bad, but the ace comment was incorrect.
I think...
He has ace stuff, but middle of the rotation control and makeup. He has plenty of good pitches, but if he improves his control I do think he can be a number 1. Not saying its likely, but I think you’re selling him short on his arsenal.
by soup du jour on Aug 29, 2008 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions
by the way
Julio Teheran is a better prospect than most of the guys on your list.
Teheran
And you know this how? All people know about Teheran is from what the scouting reports say. He has yet to produce anything in professional ball.
by atl14yearsschaffer on Aug 29, 2008 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions
common sense?
Teheran is the only guy on that list who has front of the rotation stuff, with the exception of maybe rohrbough. he was the number ten guy in the braves’ system (link: http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/organization-top-10-prospects/2008/265139.html ) before he had even thrown a pro pitch and now that he’s shown he can keep up with professional players at his age, his ranking shown improve. The injuries are a concern, but I think we chalk it up to him adjusting to his growing frame, a problem many young players experience.
and @ the guy who thinks Tommy Hanson has ace stuff, I really don’t know what you are basing this on. But unless you have seen him several times and have some kind of immense store of baseball wisdom, I’ll take the scouts view over yours. I think it’s easy to get swayed by guys putting up impressive numbers in the minors, but there’s a big difference between that and getting major league hitters out. There are tons of guys in college, for instance, who put up crazy numbers but aren’t good prospects. Kyle Gibson at Texas, for insance, had one of the best years a college hitter has ever had, but his swing wouldn’t cut it in the pros. Look at Chuck James’ numbers from years ago:
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/J/chuck-james.shtml
just as impressive as hanson, but by no means does he have front of the rotation stuff. I think Hanson will be better in the bigs, especially since he’s more able to get Ks, but unless things change, I’ll believe the people who do this for a living and assume he’s a potential middle of the rotation guy – which honestly, is an incredible feat and something the braves coudl really use.
by son.of.sourman on Aug 29, 2008 9:32 PM EDT up reply actions
I would like to see your sources.
About what scouts have said about Hanson.
by soup du jour on Aug 29, 2008 10:19 PM EDT up reply actions
An addendum.
My reasoning for wanting where you get your information is that from everything I have heard about Hanson, from these scouts and baseball people, is that he has a fastball that sits around 90-92 and can hit 95, a plus-plus curveball, an average change, and a slider that is developing into a plus pitch. This is from these ‘scouts’ you talk about, nothing formed from my own opinion. What from that doesn’t scream top of the rotation stuff? The fastball? Please. You don’t need to throw 97 to be an ace. The curveball is a true hammer. The changeup isn’t a great pitch, and the slider he just started throwing this year and is already using effectively.
Nothing from my opinion has anything to do with the stats that he’s put up.
by soup du jour on Aug 29, 2008 10:28 PM EDT up reply actions
to be fair most scouting reports I have read this year say he bumped his fastball up and sits closer to 93-95 now. I’ve read this in multiple scouting reports. So I guess we’ll have to wait and see what people are saying about his stuff post-seasonish. And about the comparison to Chuck James you are comparing a big right handed pitcher to a soft tossing lefty. There is a long list of those lefty types who dominate the minors and then crap out in the majors. I’m not saying there isn’t an equally long list of righties who do the same thing, but I more stock in a righty who can dominate with his stuff than a lefty who goes out and ‘gets it done’. You’re right, their stats are similar but I believe they got there different ways and there is something to take from that.
I'm sure he has continued to improve....BUT.....
Not once have I EVER read ace stuff out of Hanson. I was actually disappointed last year when I saw him pitch when he was with Rome. He’s has consensus #3 starter potential with many questioning his ability to be more.
Mike Newman
baseballhandyman.blogspot.com
by Baseball Handyman on Sep 1, 2008 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions
+1,324
The common sense? post was right on the money!
Mike Newman
baseballhandyman.blogspot.com
by Baseball Handyman on Sep 1, 2008 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions
Teheran should be on the list
Half of analyzing prospects is projection and scouting reports. I bet ya that Keith Law and Baseball America put Teheran ahead of EVERYONE except Hanson in their rankings. That said, here are my rankings:
1. Tommy Hanson
2. Julio Teheran
3. Cole Rohrbough
4. Jeff Locke
5. Kris Medlen
6. Scott Diamond
7. Todd Redmond
8. Craig Kimbrel
9. Chad Rodgers
10. Edgar Osuna
Although I have no idea what Diamond and Osuna throws…..
Tehran at 2?
..not even. Maybe towards the bottom of the list, but I think you’re projecting to much for Tehran at this point.
Teheran at number two is just right. He could even be number one. It’s a prospect list, it’s all about projection, and nobody in the system projects better than Teheran. When he signed scouts said he was the equivalent of a high first round pick. Don’t put to much stock into his first year as a 17 year old playing professionally for the first time in a different country.
Yes Even!!!
Teheran is an EASY choice for #2. It’s not even close. To say he’s not as worthy as Medlen, a converted MRP or a bunch of guys nobody has ever heard of other than Braves fans just kills the value of this list.
Mike Newman
baseballhandyman.blogspot.com
by Baseball Handyman on Sep 1, 2008 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions
Like I Said...
I ignored everyone in the lowest levels of the minors, so that includes Teheran (unless I missed him). I’m hopeful for his promise, but there just isn’t a track record there yet. Plenty of guys have great stuff and fail to get it all together, especially moving up the minors. I’m sure others don’t care and would rather rank him highly now, but I prefer to wait and see. Sorry.
Here we go again: http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/
Then the list is faulty
A top 10 is about the entire system. Teheran has the most explosive arm in the system and should be given credit for that.
I mean you really think any serious prospect list writer is going to ignore Michel Inoa becuase he’s 16 and hasn’t thrown yet?
It would be one thing if you were ranking top talent like the A’s or Giants minor league SP’s, but you are ranking a bunch of guys with #4-5 projections saying they are more established and therefore better prospects than the only guy in their system with #2 or higher ability.
It just KILLS your cred!
Mike Newman
baseballhandyman.blogspot.com
by Baseball Handyman on Sep 1, 2008 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions
Teheran
To put Teheran on the list at this point is laughable. If Teheran\s reputation gets him there, then maybe Rasmus and Timms should be there as well. Lets have a little success before he makes it to a Top Ten list….
by Stephen in the UAE on Sep 2, 2008 12:42 AM EDT reply actions
How much “success” should he have before he’s recognized on one of these lists? His instructional league last fall was apparently ridiculously good enough to rate #10 for Ben Badler. Sure his <20 IP this year didn’t give him a nice ERA, but his BB/9 was 2.4, his K/9 was10.2, his GB/FB was 1.27, and he was a 17 year old pitching in the Appy League. He can still be pitching in the Appy League in 2010 and he’d be age appropriate. I don’t expect he’ll continue to give up 11 hits per nine or post a LOB% of 46%.
Rasmus would certainly make a top 20 pitching prospects list, probably in the 11-15 region because of his explosive arm and his potential as a top flight closer or #2-3 starter, but he certainly doesn’t have Teheran’s projection as a bonafide ace. Plus he’s three years older.
Timms is four years older and not even in Teheran’s universe.
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