Stark on the Braves.
The more I read his stuff, the more I think ESPN's Jayson Stark is a Braves fan. That said, he had a couple of things to say about our franchise that I found interesting. His full article is quite lengthy, so I'll snipe the quote related to our team.
How much is Teixeira worth? If Scott Boras is serious about establishing a 10-year, $230 million price tag on Teixeira, he won't have many bidders to play the Yankees against. Most teams view him as a five-year, $90 million kind of guy.
An official of one club said [...] "Hey, he's a good player, obviously. But is he a guy who's going to legitimately carry a club for the money he's asking? I don't see that."
Stark sees the Mets picking up Delgado's 2009 option, so the Yankees might be his only shot at a huge payday. Tex has mentioned the Mariners as a possible landing spot, but you have to believe a new GM will look to rebuild that franchise before paying big bucks to a superstar free agent. We have no real reason to makea play for him now, but if 5/$100M had a chance to get it done, I'm disappointed we dealt him for what we did.
Another team to watch closely this winter is the Braves, who will wave farewell to more than $56 million in contracts (primarily Teixeira, John Smoltz, Tom Glavine, Mike Hampton and Mark Kotsay). But the Braves have never been fans of free-agent madness. So there's no reason to think, even with the loss of Tim Hudson for all or most of next season, that they'll chase Sabathia, Sheets or A.J. Burnett.
More likely Braves targets would seem to be starters in the Ryan Dempster/Derek Lowe mold. Or they could check out the Asian market. But they also could take a pass on free agency and trade for a high-priced arm, a la Bronson Arroyo or Aaron Harang. The Braves have signaled that they'll be willing to talk this winter about dealing just about anyone on the roster, except Chipper Jones, Brian McCann and Yunel Escobar. So they'll have lots to talk about.
I love that the two pitchers Stark chose to headline that particular category are the two I'd most like to see us sign (to three year deals or less) but I'm most interested in the two other options he brought up: the Asian and trade markets. I've loved Harang (not so high on Arroyo), but his disasterous season this year scares me because I fear it might be something physical. A reclamation project could be compelling if the price is right. I have to wonder how far we'd go to secure the services of top Asain pitchers...
Meanwhile, friends of John Smoltz and Tom Glavine continue to report that both want to return to Atlanta next year for low-guarantee, incentive-packed deals as long as it's even remotely possible for them to pitch. In part, it's because they feel remorse for collecting $22 million this year and contributing just five wins and 18 starts. But in part it's also because these guys are such good friends, they feel as if they were cheated out of one last season of playing with each other. And they'd love a mulligan, in more ways than one. "If they want to come back, and you're the Braves," one NL executive said, "I don't know how you would say no."
If Smoltz would be relegated to the bullpen and Glavine could supply #5 starter numbers, I'd be hardpressed to say no to their request. Maybe this is how we can make people like me feel better about splurging on Sabathia! Right now I'm not sold on either Morton or Reyes and they'd be battling for the #5 slot in our 2009 rotation even if we signed two free agents.
This offseason should be interesting and I hope fun. We have many ways we could go, so there is plenty for us to debate. So, what are your thoughts about all this. Should we bring back Smoltz and/or Glavine on the cheap? How should we fill the holes in our rotation? What do you take, the over/under on Tex's next contract: 7.5/$160M?
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79 comments
Comments
Asian Free Agent Market
Here’s a link to some options:
http://baseballdeworld.com/2008/08/28/2009-japanese-league-free-agents/
I’d also be for trading for Harang…
by BlueVol03 on Aug 28, 2008 4:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
its interesting to see the guys that are free agency, but are any of these guys any good, or at least how do they project to the MLB
"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."
by Swo12bv on Aug 28, 2008 8:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
check if they played in the WBC or olympics
Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.
by bigjoe on Aug 28, 2008 9:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
Nice analysis on the article.
-Harang scares me for the exact reasons you mention. I think i’d rather see us chase Lowe and Dempster in free agency, but that’s a personal opinion.
-I know nothing about the Asian market but it seems as if we’re not hearing the kind of rumblings we heard last year or the year before with Dice K and others. Maybe that will change come the offseason.
-If the article is right and Glavine/Smoltz would take incentive packed deals why would we not bring them back. Smoltz has comeback from worse and Glavine, even at his age, is liable to put up better numbers than Morton/Reyes at this point. Worse case scenario they could provide depth.
-I’m going out on a limb and will guess Boras blows it again this year and Tex will end up signing a one year deal with someone just before spring training (longshot I know, but nothing will make me happier).
by scstrato on Aug 28, 2008 5:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
just a thougth
but I think that Dempster will bring just under what CC and Sheets get. Someone will overpay for CC and it will be the Yankees and Sheets will take a discount to stay with the Brewers and that leaves Dempster who will get overpaid by whoever is left. My thoughts are CC will get slightly more than what Zito got somewhere around 7 years 135 million and Sheets will get 5 years 80 million. I think Dempster ends up staying with the Cubs for 6 years 78 million. That leaves Lowe who I am not that high on but someone we could get for 4 years 40 million.
by jack dein on Aug 28, 2008 5:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Big contracts are scary
Shoulda taken the 8 years 140M from Texas. How many players even get 20M a year on average? I know some players will get 20+ cause of the way the contract is structured, but how many people get 20M on average? A-Rod, Manny, Johan… Who else? It’s a short list. Look at some of the recent big contracts from last year:
Miguel Cabrera: $152M over 8
Johan Santana: $137M over 6
A-Rod: $275M over 10 (incentives to bring it to 30M a year)
The A-Rod contract is pretty crazy. Does anyone think Teixeira is more valuable than these guys?
Here’s a good comparison to Teix: Helton signed $141.5M over 9 years (23M option) starting at age 29. Adjusted for 2003 to 2008 inflation and that’s about $162.5M Helton could hit for average, OBP, and slugged. Four 160 OPS+ years. Very good defensive 1B. Similar to Teix, but better. You can point at Coors, but Helton was still .950 – 1.000 OPS on the road during his 160 OPS+ seasons.
Look at Helton now. The power declined with age and now injuries, and he had a better injury history than Teix. 3 more years on the Helton contract. And really, compared to a lot of long term contracts, the Helton one isn’t that bad. Anyone really want to give Teixeira something like $162.5M over 9 years?
I guess Teixiera has faith in Boras. After all, Tex has the highest draft pick signing bonus ever at $10M.
by VictorW on Aug 28, 2008 6:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
yes
we will have alot of money to spend but like Stark says we dont usually go after the BIG fish in free agency. I think we might sign one good pitcher from free agency, trade for one starter, either sign a LF or trade for one. And whatever money we have left which should still be a good bit we will save and spend some of that on the draft and international signings. I realize we have seperate money for the draft but i think it would be wise to save some and spend alot on the 2009 draft and also be big players in the international signing also. We can strengthen our majors and minors with the money we have. We have to be smart with this money and if we are we will benefit for years to come.
braves#1
by rockybull on Aug 28, 2008 6:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
oh yeah and of course have some money to sign Smoltz, Glavine, and possibly Hampton to one year deals also. Should only be about $5 million maximum for those three guys though.
braves#1
by rockybull on Aug 28, 2008 6:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Some Predictions.
Sabathia – 6/$150M with the Yanks
Tex – 7/$140M with the Yanks
Sheets – 4/$70M with the Astros
Dempster – 4/$60M with the Cubs
Lowe – 3/$40M with the Braves
Here we go again: http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/
by ejruiz on Aug 28, 2008 6:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
ejruiz
you think the Yankees will give Sabathia $25 million a year? I would be surprised thats alot of money. The Tex deal sounds about right although i dont think he is worth that kind of money. Sheets deal seems fair i guess. If we could get Lowe for that I would definately do that deal in a heartbeat.
braves#1
by rockybull on Aug 28, 2008 6:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree the Braves will go with someone like Harang/Lowe/ Dempster. Who was the last big free agent we signed? Maddux? We have the depth in the farm system to trade for some big pieces, so I’d like to see Frank Wren pull some shrew deals in the offseason (i don’t think he has done as poorly as some have made out simply because there wasn’t much he could do in the situations he was put in this year).
by yondaime4 on Aug 28, 2008 6:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Pitchers
I’d take Dempster over Lowe, but Dempster might cost more. He’s younger. Dempster is a very good pitcher when he’s not giving up HRs and walks, which explains his success this year.
I don’t think Arroyo is very good anymore and Cinci will probably ask for too much like last time. I heard they turned down Yunel + Jo-Jo for Arroyo last year.
Harang is just risky. He’s been a good pitcher who’s eaten a ton of innings, but it looks like the workload has gotten to him. His contract is pretty cheap, but the injury (even if he didn’t miss too much time), a slight loss of control, a big HR spike combined with general ineffectiveness are worrisome.
by VictorW on Aug 28, 2008 6:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Dempster.
I believe he’s staying with the Cubs because there’s a lot of mutual affection there. I’d love to have him (again, on a three year deal or less) but I don’t think it’ll happen.
Here we go again: http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/
by ejruiz on Aug 28, 2008 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah you're right
This is from MLB Trade Rumors:
“Rosenthal sees a minimal chance of Ryan Dempster signing elsewhere, given his strong relationship with Cubs GM Jim Hendry. Dempster will be the Cubs’ top offseason priority.”
by VictorW on Aug 28, 2008 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
about what would it take to get Harang? They would prolly want a Catching prospect so it seems they may want Flowers perhaps. Prolly Schafer or Gorkys and then Morton, Reyes, or Hanson.
Reds get Flowers, Schafer or Gorkys, and Morton or Reyes or Hanson
Braves get Harang
I think thats too much but im just sayin what they would prolly want for Harang. He is cheap and fairly young. They wont give him up for cheap thats for sure.
braves#1
by rockybull on Aug 28, 2008 6:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
He'll probably cost more
This is what’s left on Harang’s contract:
09:$11M, 10:$12.5M, 11:$12.75M ($2M buyout)
Very reasonable.
Bedard was 7M in 2008 + an arb in 2009 so kinda comparable. Adam Jones > Schafer/Gorkys. Tillman is good pitching prospect. Probably close to Morton/Reyes/Hanson, give or take. Then Sherrill + 2 more pitching. Gees pitchers are expensive…
Yeah I don’t really want to part with Flowers/Schafer/pitcher either and it might cost even more than that for Harang.
by VictorW on Aug 28, 2008 6:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
and plus i heard that the Reds are gonna have a good bit of money in the offseason to spend and they are gonna be very aggressive so if they do that I seriously doubt they would trade a good pitcher like Harang. Yes he has struggled this year but he is still a real good pitcher. And if he is hurt like some think then definately i wouldn’t come close to maken a trade for him.
braves#1
by rockybull on Aug 28, 2008 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
actually
I think the Braves were the ones that were reluctant to givin up Escobar plus Reyes. I think the Braves were fine with givin up one of them but not both in the same package for Arroyo.
braves#1
by rockybull on Aug 28, 2008 6:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'd like to see
I like Derek Lowe and think he could pitch well for the Braves. Dempster just isn’t going to happen. I think there would a chance we could land CC if it weren’t for the Yankees willing to over pay for every player.
I’d be interested in looking at the asian market and see if the Braves could sign a quality player that is still young or in their prime. But if that requires paying top dollar for that player, then I’m not sure the risk is worth it.
by Sparhawk on Aug 28, 2008 6:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
harang is damaged goods. i do NOT want aaron.
Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.
by bigjoe on Aug 28, 2008 7:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Thanks Dusty Baker!
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Aug 29, 2008 9:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's the reason Adam Dunn hates baseball
by VictorW on Aug 29, 2008 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Aug 29, 2008 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My thoughts.
I’m actually a fan of bringing Jon Garland over to the NL if we can sign him reasonably. I’m not that high on Derek Lowe simply because he’s 35 years old, and while I’d most like to sign Dempster, its not likely to happen due to said goodwill between him and the Cubs.
First and foremost I’d like to sign either Pat Burrell or Adam Dunn, and then look for a youngish pitcher on the trade market (Greinke? Lowry? One of the Twins youngesters?)
A question: in the hypothetical situation that Roy Halladay becomes available, would you be willing to give up a package centered around Heyward for him? (Lets say, spitballing, Heyward, Flowers, Rohrbourgh, and Medlen?)
by soup du jour on Aug 28, 2008 9:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
NO! NOOOOOOOOOOOO! NO! NOT JON GARLAND! ANYTHING BUT JON GARLAND! NOOOOOOOOOOOO JON GARLAND!!!!!!!
Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.
by bigjoe on Aug 28, 2008 9:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
WHOAH
i dont know about givin up Heyward for Halladay. I admit that Halladay is a fantastic pitcher but I really like Heyward, but of course you gotta give up somethin to get somethin but i dont know about givin up Heyward though. How about this:
Braves get Halladay
Blue Jays get Flowers, Rohrbough or Locke(there choice), Medlen, Lillibridge(they really need a SS and Lillibridge could be the answer), and Campbell
I dont know if that would work but i would definately give up that package for Halladay. But they might could get a better package from another team and again they may not be able to cause we are given up a good bit. They might prefer Morton or Reyes or Hanson in the deal instead of Medlen. Whatever good pitcher we trade for if we trade for one we will have to trade ALOT of our prospects or trade 2 or 3 of our TOP 5 prospects.
Its not gonna be easy so thats why i dont see us signing or goin after a high profile pitcher like a Halladay or Sabathia. Even pitchers like Harang will not be easy to get cause he is fairly young, fairly cheap and is a good pitcher. I just hope that Braves fans dont get there hope up hopin for a stud pitcher comin to Atlanta and then HOPIN we didn’t have to give up much, cause they will be dissapointed.
braves#1
by rockybull on Aug 28, 2008 9:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
In order to give up Halladay
The Jays would, at very minimum, require Heyward or Hanson. Then move on from there. I would definitely give up Hanson, but Heyward is where I waffle on the idea. The Haren deal is a good comparison as to what Halladay should get, with Halladay performing better than Haren but being more expensive.
Of course, there’s been little indication that the Jays are actually willing to trade Halladay. I think they’re trying to compete next year.
by soup du jour on Aug 29, 2008 7:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m just glad you guys aren’t the GM. Are you kidding me about giving all that for Harang??? We should not trade Hanson, Heyward, Freeman for anyone!!! Those are untouchable prospects. I wouldn’t even trade Schafer. He’s a stud CF regardless. We should keep our prospects and maybe sign a Burrell to a 3 or 4 year deal because we need a right handed bat in the outfield. We should not sign Dunn because our lineup is already too left-handed. We need to dump Francoeur and maybe play Anderson or Blanco in right if we can’t get another bat. I would like to keep KJ and see if he bounces back with a big season. Our infield should be set next year.
by BravesFan on Aug 28, 2008 10:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
oh my god, are you serious? blanco and anderson in the lineup at the same time? who’s hitting fifth in that lineup?
Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.
by bigjoe on Aug 28, 2008 11:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And seriously...
I’m in Astros territory. Ed Wade chose to trade for Michael “Crapbag” Bourn rather than give Anderson a shot. Ed Wade is also a certified moron, but still, he’s at least right about this: Josh Anderson sucks.
by jc25 on Aug 28, 2008 11:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
lets be specific here. HE TRADED BRAD LIDGE FOR MICHAEL BOURN, and a bucket of balls.
Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.
by bigjoe on Aug 29, 2008 12:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Frank Wren is also a certified moron.
by jjcollins on Aug 29, 2008 1:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dude, you're on a roll!
If your wit were a boxer, it would be Muhammad Ali!!
by buzzdeadwax on Aug 29, 2008 1:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nope.
Wren’s been fine. His only true misstep was trading for Kotsay. He made off great in the Ascanio, Yates and Rents trades. We weren’t getting anything good for tex at the deadline. Sorry.
Here we go again: http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/
by ejruiz on Aug 29, 2008 1:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wonder...
…what would have happened if the focus was on getting players who were talented but not necessarily ML-ready, e.g., Neftali Feliz. It seems as though the focus was on a particular position, as opposed to the best talent available. And it looks like we ended up with marginal talent, possible because of that focus. I’m not trying to bash FW, but 2 high draft choices would at least give you the chance to pick 2 players with high upside, who could become prospects to use in Atlanta or as part of a trade. Remember, the 2007 draft produced Gilmore and Freeman in the 1Sup and 2nd rounds. Those guys are arguably even more useful to the Braves than Kotchman/Marek simply because of their trade value.
by buzzdeadwax on Aug 29, 2008 1:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What he got was better than draft picks
Draft picks are risky, and I think the front office wanted a return we wouldn’t have to wait on. It can be argued that Brandon Wood or Adenhart would have been better choices that Kotchman, but Kotchman is better than mystery draft picks.
by VictorW on Aug 29, 2008 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
pretty sure he’s the guy that signed albert belle to that long deal without examining his hip
Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.
by bigjoe on Aug 29, 2008 1:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ownership.
The Belle signing was mandated by their idiot owner and I believe he was opposed.
Here we go again: http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/
by ejruiz on Aug 29, 2008 1:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
apologies for the typo
Currently sitting at .382
by jc25 on Aug 28, 2008 11:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeeeeeeeeeeeesh. talk about a sophomore slump
Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.
by bigjoe on Aug 29, 2008 12:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I blame it on the shoulder
Still the #1 defensive SS
by VictorW on Aug 29, 2008 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you read my post, you will see that Burrell would be batting fifth in the lineup. We’re not going anywhere next year with Cox as our manager anyway. He’s the worst strategist in baseball. It’s no coincidence that we are by far the worst team in baseball in 1-run ball games. Back to what I was saying, Blanco or Anderson would play right and bat 1st. We need a leadoff hitter!!! Only bad part is that they’re both left-handed hitters so a normal platoon isn’t possible.
by BravesFan on Aug 30, 2008 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah Harang is garbage and the Reds should just give him away after ONE bad season. Yeah the Reds are morons for wantin alot for a 30 year old pitcher that is signed for a few more years cheaply and from 2005-2007 with the Reds had an ERA in the 3’s pitching his home games in that homerun park and from 2006-2007 he had 16 wins and over 200 and something strikeouts and only had 50 something walks each year in all three years and he pitched 200 and something innings for all three years also from 2005-2007.
Yep they are idiots for wantin alot for him and I am an idiot for EXPECTING the Reds to WANT alot for Harang. But I did say that i wouldn’t give up that much but I could see them wantin that package or perhaps more. Yes he is havin a bad season but so what, that could be because of injury or just ineffectiveness, i dont know. Lets see what he does next year, if he stinks again THEN you can say are you kidding me about giving all that up for Harang???
Oh yeah and you said this: “We need to dump Francoeur and maybe play Anderson or Blanco in right if we can’t get another bat. I would like to keep KJ and see if he bounces back with a big season. Our infield should be set next year.”
Are you kidding me?? We should dump Frenchy because of an offyear but keep KJ? I tell you what why dont we keep BOTH players and see if BOTH players bounces back next season, would that work for you? ahhahahah.
And why is Hanson such offlimits dude? I like him alot and he is doin great but we have had others doin the same thing and then do nothin at the majors. I think he will be a good pitcher but there is a chance that he does not. If we could get a real good pitcher or hitter then why not, but the player would need to be under contract for at least 2 or 3 years in my opinion. Not too thrilled about givin him up for a one year rental though.
braves#1
by rockybull on Aug 29, 2008 12:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
no man, harang is done. dusty has fucking abused that arm so much this season thats he’s gonna go down the prior route any day now. trust me on this. his career has peaked
Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.
by bigjoe on Aug 29, 2008 12:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You might be right he might be done. But im gonna see what he does next year before i say he is done, i just dont like givin up on established major leaguers just because of one bad year.
braves#1
by rockybull on Aug 29, 2008 12:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hanson
Hanson is off-limits because to win in this league, you need (at least) 3 quality starting pitchers. And since the free agent market is either signing dreck (Kyle Lohse, anyone) and hoping they become good or signing “top tier” talent (Mr. Sabathia, come on down) and hoping they don’t suck (nice knowing you, Barry Zito), you can hardly count on free agency. And since TINSTAAPP always applies, you stockpile as many good arms as possible (The Billy Beane hypothesis) and hope a few of them stick to the wall. And since Tommy Hanson is our best (and possible only accomplished) minor league starter, you may just want to hold onto him and hope beyond hope he becomes more Kevin Millwood than Kyle Davies.
Why do the Marlins have a better record than the Braves? (Yes, I know, we’ve been unlucky this year.) It’s in large part because they’ve just thrown their stockpiled arms out there (Josh Johnson, Olsen, Nolasco, Anibal Sanchez, Andrew Miller, Volstad, et al). Some of them have stuck this year, some haven’t. Meanwhile, we’ve been using the below replacement level Mortons and Jo Jo Reyes of the world, while our pleasant “surprise” is a 29 year old rookie.
If you don’t have the unlimited pockets, or even if you do (the Mets, for example), you win by supplementing your established stars (Delgado, Beltran, Santana, Wagner) with young talent which is either top-tier (Wright, Reyes, Pelfrey) or solid supporting cast (Ramon Castro, Nick Evans, Joe Smith, John Maine, Aaron Heilman). You fill out the rest of your lineup with veteran role players (Church, Easley, Scott S) that won’t kill you, and you hope to catch lightning in a bottle every now and then (Oliver Perez, Fernando Tatis).
In my eyes, it’s relatively simple. Yes, they’ve been unlucky. But other than Brian McCann, the Braves simply have been unable to turn their young talent from middle class to relative stardom, and they’ve gotten negative returns from what should have been their middle class (again, see Kyle Davies).
by jc25 on Aug 29, 2008 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
One of the reasons they can stockpile arms
Is because they have so many fire sales. If we traded players we drafted and developed like Chipper over the winter and Andruw off of that 50 HR season and things like that, then we’d have a large pitching stockpile too. You really shouldn’t compare the Braves to the Marlins. Probably someone like the Angels or Red Sox, who have seen success while still drafting and developing young arms.
Trading for good pitchers works out if you do it right. The young arms we traded for Hudson were probably comparable to Hanson. Maybe better. Dan Meyer was our top pitching prospect.
Look at the Beckett trade. No one knew Hanley was going to be that good (.780 minors OPS), but Anibal Sanchez was a good pitching prospect, probably around what Hanson is. Red Sox don’t beat the Indians last year without Beckett.
You’re treating Hanson like he’s Kershaw or something. Even prospects that good have their troubles. Look at Homer Bailey. He used to be the top pitching prospect in baseball. Phil Hughes hasn’t proved anything yet either. Of course they can still become aces, but it’s not as cut and dry as “hold onto all your pitching prospects.” Sometimes it is the right move to trade. Just in this case, for Harang, most of us don’t think it is.
The Braves have tried to develop a lot of young talent. Pitchers: Chuck James, Morton, Jo-Jo, Kyle Davies. These just didn’t/haven’t worked out. But we did get 2 pitchers that are good: Campillo and Jurrjens. 2 out of 6 isn’t bad at all, especially at the level Jurrjens and Campillo are performing at. Jurrjens is just as good as Pelfry, if not better, and 2 years young.
If you want to look at young position players we developed/traded for… Anderson, Blanco, B Jones, Francoeur in the outfield. Francoeur has star potential and just never broke out. Infield… Escobar, Lilli, Kelly, and Prado. Kelly was good last year. one of the top 5 hitting 2B. Escobar is slumping offensively but he’s the best defensive SS in the game right now.
I just don’t think we’ve had that bad of a track record on young players. Sometimes you get unlucky, but it’s not like we’re the Yankees or Mariners, stuck with a bunch of old, bloated contracts.
by VictorW on Aug 29, 2008 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nice post.
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Aug 29, 2008 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
trading andruw after that 50 homer season probably would have been a smart move, judging from what happened after
Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.
by bigjoe on Aug 29, 2008 6:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
completely agree with you Victor
I’d love to compare the Braves to the Red Sox or the Angels, and I agree that the comparison is much more apt than the Marlins. Here are the two problems:
1. Until the Liberty Media purchase, the Braves were have their costs slashed by Time Warner. Thus, their payroll resembled a mid-market team. It worked out well for a while, until it…didn’t. Unless Liberty can get the spending up to a Red Sox or Angels level (which they won’t, because they don’t make that kind of cash), there can’t be a Red Sox or Angels mentality. The difference is, the Braves traded for Tex with the mentality that he was a rental. No one seriously believed the Braves would offer 6/$150 (or whatever it’ll take). The Red Sox traded for Josh Beckett with the mentality that he was going to be a long-term ace for them. They subsequently signed him to a contract extension. In my opinion, that’s the difference between a Red Sox organization and a Braves organization. We’ll see this summer whether the Angels resign Tex or not. My gut feeling is they will (unless the Yankees offer something astronomical).
2. The second, and more important, problem, is that the Red Sox and Angels have been able to successfully transition their young pitching into success. Think about it: the Sox have gotten good work out of Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Jonathan Papelbon, Justin Masterson…the Angels have gotten John Lackey, Joe Saunders, K-Rod, Jared Weaver, Scot Shields. The Braves have gotten…what? Chuck James? Peter Moylan?
Regarding the Braves and the Marlins, it’s simply not comparable because the Braves don’t run their organization like the Marlins, and thanks to the streak of division championships, the Braves fans can’t see their team being turned into the Marlins. I’m not advocating a fire sale either; that’s downright disrespectful to your fan base. What I’m suggesting is, that if you’re at a Red Sox or Angels spending level, it’s essential to win by developing young talent. You’re correct in the Braves have done a fair job producing hitting talent (subpar seasons by Escobar, KJ and Frenchy aside). But they can’t get that young pitching to go along with it. The Marlins go about it the completely wrong way (i.e., pissing off your fans right after winning a WS). But it’s also partly the reason they’ve had years where they’re more successful than the Braves.
I’m in no way advocating that Tommy Hanson is Clayton Kershaw (who’s also had his struggles, by the way). Even Kershaw and Bailey are not immune to TINSTAAPP (I supposed you could also say Andy Marte isn’t immune to TINSTAAHP). I have no problem trading prospects for frontline players (see my Jason Heyward for Roy Halladay post), but it has to be done either to A) win now (which didn’t work out for the Tex trade) or B) win long-term (where you can keep Halladay for as long as you would’ve kept Heyward…which also didn’t work out in the Tex trade). If you’re not accomplishing either of those two things, then it’s not worth trading a Tommy Hanson in the same way you’re trading a Dan Meyer.
That’s where I think Braves management (and to an extent, the Braves fan base) is mistaken. As I’ve said many times, I’m in Astros country, and talk radio is deluged with fans who think they’re 1 or 2 pieces away from contending. And they are—if those 1 or 2 pieces are Tex and CC Sabathia. Which they won’t be. And that’s the same boat the Braves are in. Hell, the best SP the Braves have going into next year is Jorge Campillo (!) (some will say Jair Jurrjens). So yeah, IF the Braves sign a top tier SP and a top tier bat, they’re in the mix. Problem is, no way are they getting both CC and Tex caliber players. They’re signing Ryan Dempster OR Pat Burrell OR someone good but not great. And then they’re hoping that their hitters bounce back. And then they’re hoping some of that young starting pitching comes through. In short, I strongly believe the Marlins are much closer to winning the division next year than the Braves. And that the Braves better not delude themselves into believing they’re contenders, lest they threaten to become one of the worst teams in baseball (a la the Astros).
I don’t mean for this post to be overly negative. I really don’t. I’ll be rooting hard for the Braves no matter what, come rain (the FYF posts) or come shine (Brian McCann, one of the top 20 players in baseball). But I think it’s time the Braves realize that instead of trading away their farm system for veterans who can win now, it’s time to see what the young kids can do. Some will succeed (McCann), some will fail (Kyle Davies). But for a prospect like Hanson, I just don’t see the Braves getting a #1 starter like Roy Halladay, and I don’t want them getting a good but not great starter like Aaron Harang.
by jc25 on Aug 29, 2008 9:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree that this just isn't the right time to buy
I don’t think you’re being negative, just realistic. We aren’t really contenders next year without Hudson. Maybe we can play well and and compete, but no reason to make a big move assuming we’ll compete.
I just don’t think it’s that the Braves haven’t tried to produce our own pitching, it’s just who we’ve tried hasn’t really worked out. We haven’t really shipped away many successful pitchers. Wainwright’s the only one who’s really good.
by VictorW on Aug 29, 2008 10:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great stuff, but to be fair Buchholz has been awful in the majors. He’s got the potential for sure, but he’s coming up on 100 major leagues innings and he’s given up more than a hit per inning and he’s walked 51 batters already.
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Sep 2, 2008 9:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think he's just saying that Harang is too risky to trade for
Especially since Harang would cost a Bedard package
by VictorW on Aug 29, 2008 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Did anyone say they wanted to give that up for Harang
That’s how much he’s going to cost. And no one wants to give up that package.
I don’t want to trade our prospects either, but giving the untouchable tag to anyone other than Heyward is being pretty generous.
Burrell is older than Dunn and more likely to decline faster.
You can’t trade Frenchy because he has no trade value. At least in Atlanta he sells tickets.
by VictorW on Aug 29, 2008 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Again, I agree
And again, I’m not sure Heyward is an untouchable (if you can get someone like Halladay). Salty was just as good a prospect and had performed at a higher level, and he was traded for Tex. Andy Marte was just as highly regarded (although he didn’t have the minor league numbers), and he was traded for Edgar Renteria. So it’s possible that the Braves could move their next #1 prospect (Heyward).
But do I think it would be a most likely a mistake? Yes, most definitely (see above post).
by jc25 on Aug 29, 2008 9:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Koji Uehara
He’s 33-34 years old, but the Red Sox took a 36-year old Hideki Okajima with decent results, as did the Dodgers with Takashi Saito.
Uehara has some filthy stuff – I’ve seen him pitch on international television, and he was the guy on the mound in the WBC when Japan finally solved South Korea. Dirty when he’s on.
I look at his numbers, and it appears a few sub-par seasons has forced him into the bullpen, where he seemed to make a Smoltz-like renaissance, and currently has 32 saves…
But the numbers - 8 seasons, 106-57, 1,304 Ks, a 2.96 career ERA, and a K/BB rate of almost 6:1, with a 16:1 ratio serving as the closer.
But if we’re going to go international, I’d rather make some noise with a starter – who knows, maybe Uehara will be unhappy with the bullpen role, get posted, and get picked up by an MLB squad this off-season, to be a starting pitcher again. I liked him more than Matsuzaka in the WBC, because he’s more of a finesse pitcher, and definitely a smarter pitcher than Dice-K. But even if he’s only got a few years left, I’m willing to bet that he’d be far, far, far more effective than a schlub like Kei Igawa.
While on the subject of Asian pitchers, South Korea’s got one of the best closers in the continent; I’ve brought up his name a few times, but I’d love to see him make the jump: Seung-Hwan Oh, of the Samsung Lions in Korea. Holds the Asian single-season saves record with 47, and is still only 26. He’s getting at least a strikeout an inning his whole career, closing in on 300 saves at the age of 26, and has a 1.42 lifetime ERA. Korea isn’t much of a challenge to him anymore, but he seems to do well internationally (small samples – Olympics 1.2 IP, 1-0, 1 sv, 0 H, WBC – 3.0 IP, 1 sv, 3 K).
I’d love to see both of these guys make the jump, regardless of if it’s us that gets them or not; but the question is if anyone would want them. The Braves don’t really do imports; the only Asian players I can remember in the organization were Jung Bong, and Sung Ki Jung has kind of disappeared in Myrtle Beach, so I question whether or not anything will come to fruition. Afterall, all we got was some cash for Chris Resop, who knows if any actual players will come out of our so-called relationship with the Hanshin Tigers?
No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.
by royhobbs on Aug 28, 2008 11:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
when is YU DARVISH gonna be a FA?
Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.
by bigjoe on Aug 29, 2008 12:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He has another 4 or 5 years I think
Before that he has to be posted. So we’d essentially have to pay twice to get him before 2012 or 2013.
by mburris1 on Aug 29, 2008 2:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Looks like nice pickups.
Braves are really active in the Hispanic areas, but not Asia. If we do pick up a pitcher, make sure it’s 2 so they have someone to talk to.
by VictorW on Aug 29, 2008 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Trades.
Harang and Halladay will cost more than they’re worth for different reasons. Aaron is signed cheaply and has a long history of dominance prior to 2008. Roy is a franchise icon, signed cheaply and is still pitching as well as ever. Let’s set aside the potential for Harang’s decline to be due to an injury, I wouldn’t want to give up top prospect value for those guys. Maybe something for Halladay that included any of our pitching prospects, any of our corner infield prospects (Flowers included) and any of our middle infield prospects. I might be convinced to give up one more non-elite spec as well, but that’s about it. I’m still not sure Roy would be worth it.
Here we go again: http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/
by ejruiz on Aug 29, 2008 12:07 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
if we could get halladay signed to a 5 year extension, i don’t care what we’d have to give up for him. dude is the most underrated pitcher in the game, eats innings for breakfast, has tremendous walk rates, and doesn’t allow runs. he’d be a perfect companion/replacement for huddy
Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.
by bigjoe on Aug 29, 2008 12:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
At very worst, you’re looking at a Hanley Ramirez-Josh Beckett deal, a trade the Red Sox would still have made, no questions asked (unless Dr. Andrews says Beckett’s arm is about to be amputated). I love Heyward as much as the next guy here, but there’s still a strong possibility he turns out to be more Andy Marte than Hanley Ramirez.
by jc25 on Aug 29, 2008 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No one expect Hanley to be that good
.780 minors OPS. And Mike Lowell had negative trade value when the Marlins traded him (.658 OPS owed 18M over 2 years). Plus they only traded for 1 year of Beckett, while Halladay has 2 more years left.
So you’re looking at a Bedard or Haren deal. Bedard cost Adam Jones, Tillman, Sherill, and 2 more pitching prospects for Bedard. Which means Halladay will cost something like Hanson, Shafer/Heyward, another good prospect, and 2 lower prospects. Maybe more since Halladay is one of those “ace of MLB” type players and Beckett certainly wasn’t when he was traded for.
by VictorW on Aug 29, 2008 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Haha, I think we're on the same page
My argument was, at very worst case scenario, you’re trading a prospect who may become the very best player in baseball (at least according to BP) for a top tier pitcher (and I think he should be ranked a little higher).
More realistically, Jason Heyward will clock in somewhere in the top 50 (which is where Adam Jones may very well end up in a year or two). So yeah, I agree with you, a Bedard package is comparable.
But even if Jason Heyward turned out to be a Hanley Ramirez type star, I still think you make that trade for a Roy Halladay and be happy with it. Halladay is definitely better than Bedard and possibly better than Haren.
And definitely better than Aaron Harang.
by jc25 on Aug 29, 2008 9:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
enjoyed the discussion, by the way
I think we’re on the same page. Very stimulating convo.
by jc25 on Aug 29, 2008 9:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yep
Don’t think either of us want to really part with the talent. Just not the right time.
Just I think it’s gonna be more expensive than most people are expecting. It’s not really worst case senario Heyward + throw ins. It’s Schafer/Heyward + Hason + good prospect + filler at a minimum for 2 years of Halladay.
by VictorW on Aug 29, 2008 10:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
YES
you are completely right bigjoe. COMPLETELY RIGHT. Halladay is the most underrated great pitcher in the game just like Chipper is the most underrated great hitter in the game. But both have injury concerns in the past. Before Santana came along and started dominating and winnin his 2 cy youngs Halladay was the best pitcher in the game and he would have won multiple cy youngs if he was healthier. Halladay, Hudson, Jurrgens, Morton or Reyes, and WHO the fuck cares who the fifth starter is. hahahhaa. That is a flat out nasty rotation that is if Morton or Reyes can be good fourth or fifth starters and i think they can. If we can lock Halladay up like you said then I would trade them any player other than Heyward. I would still really want to keep him though, but everybody else is available. They want Hanson, bye bye, they want Freeman bye bye. But of course I would not trade 4 of our 5 top prospects though.
I would trade Hanson or Morton or Reyes, Flowers, Lillibridge, Rohrbough or Locke(there choice) and Campbell without even blinkin that is if we can lock him up for another few years on his contract to make it 4 or 5 years that he will be playin for us. Who really knows if Lillibridge or Cambpell are major leaguers. And Flowers is doin good but you dont know for sure about him. Either way you look at it we wont be gettin killed in the deal and we wouldn’t be stealin him from the Jays either. But you gotta give up real good prospects for real good established major leaguers thats just the way it is and always will be. But I doubt we will go after a great player like that via trade or free agency but just given my two cents worth.
braves#1
by rockybull on Aug 29, 2008 12:39 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
What about 2009 makes everyone so confident?
I can’t see it. I’ve had it explained to me that if we sign a #1 and #3 starter and a big bat for LF, even though that pretty much puts us back to where we started in 2008, that we’ll be contenders again. The reasoning behind the explanation was that some writers picked the Braves to win the WS, so this must have been a great team. I’ll admit that I thought this team had a legitimate chance to win the NL East, but that was based on:
Frenchy combining the power of 06 with the improved hitting approach of 07;
KJ progressing, not digressing;
Yunel progressing, not digressing (though in his defense he’s been a great fielder and is hitting around .290 in a down year); and
Matt Diaz playing and hitting like he did in 06 & 07.
Therefore, we will carry over 3 HUGE question marks in the lineup, and add 1-2 more (Kotchman and whoever is in CF). Chipper, McCann, and Dunn/Burrell aren’t good enough if those other five play like they have in 2008.
In closing, while I might spend a few bucks in the FA market for 2009, it’s utterly pointless to trade away prospects unless your team is AT LEAST really close to being a WS contender, if not better. I didn’t like the Tex trade at the time, because I knew his bat wouldn’t make the crappy pitching any better, and JS was making a move out of desparation. I just hope the farm isn’t traded away again this offseason, before it really has the chance to bear fruit.
by buzzdeadwax on Aug 29, 2008 1:09 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
2009 Line-up.
1) CF – Josh Anderson or Gregor Blanco (maybe Schafer, but I’d prefer not to rush him and these two are prototypical leadoff hitters)
2) SS – Yunel Escobar (power hasn’t developed – sapped by nagging injuries? – but the OBP and style for this role are there)
3) 3B – Chipper Jones (Omar Infante and Martin Prado can provide verstile depth)
4) LF – Pat Burrell or Adam Dunn (offer both competative three-year deals, though I’d prefer Burrell because his departure would hurt Philly)
5) C – Brian McCann (blossomed into a true superstar this year)
6) 2B – Kelly Johnson (he’s slumped this season, but he has occasional power and has been a good overall hitter before)
7) 1B – Casey Kothman (possibly interchangable with Yunel depending on the breaks)
8) RF – Jeff Francouer (I hope he bounces back, but he should be on a short leash with Brandon Jones waiting in the wings)
That line-up is decent enough, no? I’ll do one more of these for a pitching staff…
Here we go again: http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/
by ejruiz on Aug 29, 2008 1:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Only the 3-5 spots are occupied by...
…established hitters. I’m not saying it can’t happen; I’m not foolish or arrogant enough to think that I can predict the future. What I am saying is that it doesn’t look very likely that this team will be a legitimate contender, even with a top FA pitcher and LF. I trusted Frenchy, Tex, and KJ to carry this team, and they proved me wrong. Now Tex is gone, and the other two don’t seem worthy of my trust. I hope they make me look like a complete idiot in 2009.
ej – Do you disagree with my position on trading away prospects? If your team sucks as bad as the Braves do right now, you need all the young talent you can get. You can’t start trading away that talent until you have some established young stars who are blocking the talent (e.g., McCann and Flowers). As I said, spend some of the FA money, but do NOT waste prospects on the 2009 team.
by buzzdeadwax on Aug 29, 2008 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
agree and disagree
In closing, while I might spend a few bucks in the FA market for 2009, it’s utterly pointless to trade away prospects unless your team is AT LEAST really close to being a WS contender, if not better. I didn’t like the Tex trade at the time, because I knew his bat wouldn’t make the crappy pitching any better, and JS was making a move out of desparation. I just hope the farm isn’t traded away again this offseason, before it really has the chance to bear fruit.
Completely agree that trading the farm system is pointless if you’re not a WS contender, which I don’t believe we are going into next year. I disagree that trading for Tex wasn’t the right move at the time. Two Julys ago, we were still in the playoff hunt. Plus, we kept Tex going into this season, in which we had a “WS contending” team.
- We had a strong line-up with one hole in left. Unfortunately, Frenchy, KJ, Escobar and Diaz all decided to regress instead of build on last season. Thus, you’re left with a decidedly mediocre to average line-up consisting of 3 good hitters (two who suffered injuries, and one who was traded away).
- We also had a decent looking bench, which has performed more or less to expectations. Good seasons by Infante, Prado, and even Blanco’s season would look nice if he was a utility player; the Corky thing was just ridiculously dumb.
- We had a top-tier 1-2 punch in Hudson and Smoltz. We know how that turned out.
- We had a top-tier back of the bullpen in Moylan, Gonzalez, and Soriano. We know how that turned out as well.
- The only major hole we had was filling out the rotation. Glavine may have been a nice 4-5, and Campillo turned in a solid season. But as you read my comment above, it was the young pitching not coming through that absolutely killed us.
Going into next season, knowing what we know of this season, I believe you’re absolutely right. While we WERE a WS contending team last year, regression in the face of progression and a plethora of injuries ravaged our season. Without any caliber starting pitching to speak of and with bats that are just as likely to stay at their 2008 production levels as they are to improve again, this team isn’t close enough to competing for a title.
by jc25 on Aug 29, 2008 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
Everything that could have gone wrong, did. Now’s the time to build a solid foundation with the farm system and young talent at as many positions possible. Contention in 2010 isn’t out of the question (though 2011 is more likely), but not if we keep clinging to the idea that we’re just a player or two away.
by buzzdeadwax on Aug 29, 2008 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
2009 Pitching Staff.
Sign two of the following: C.C. Sabathia, Ben Sheets, Ryan Dempster, Derek Lowe, Oliver Perez and Jon Garland, etc.
SP – Jair Jurrjens, Jorge Campillo, two free agents (out of the following group: C.C. Sabathia, Ben Sheets, Ryan Dempster, Derek Lowe, Oliver Perez and Jon Garland, etc.) and Charlie Morton, Jo-Jo Reyes, other prospect or cheap veteran (Hampton, Glavine, etc.)
RP – Mike Gonzalez, Rafael Soriano (finally had surgery), Phil Stockman, Blaine Boyer, eventually Peter Moylan, maybe John Smoltz and filler.
Competative, no?
Here we go again: http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/
by ejruiz on Aug 29, 2008 1:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Signings
I very much doubt that we’ll have enough coin to sign Burrell/Dunn in addition to 2 of those starting pitchers you mentioned. I think what’ll end up happening is we sign one LF/SP and then trade for the other. Not that I am opposed to the idea, I just a) don’t think we’ll have nearly enough money, and b) other teams will throw more money at one of them than we can in order to pick up a pair.
by soup du jour on Aug 29, 2008 7:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
we have 56 million dollars coming off the books… I agree that other teams may throw MORE money at them. But I don’t think anyone will have more money to burn that us.
by yondaime4 on Aug 29, 2008 7:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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