Fatal Flaw? - Cody Johnson
Originally Written 8/8
Fatal Flaw? - Cody Johnson, OF, ATL
Cody Johnson entered the 2008 season as a borderline top 100 overall prospect. A former first rounder by the Atlanta Braves, Johnson's 2007 line of .305/.374/.630 had the organization excited about a potential breakout at Rome in his first full season assignment.
However, Johnson has been exposed by striking out a staggering 160 times in 397 at bats. I've read Adam Dunn comparisons since Johnson does have plus power potential as shown by his team leading 20 home runs after 17 last season, but people seem to forget that Dunn's career minor league line was .304/.415/.525 with a K/BB ratio of 270/230. MUCH better than Johnson's .258/.321/.483 line and K/BB ratio of 279/70. Dunn dominated at all levels of the minor leagues and was in the bigs at 21. Johnson is 19 and struggling to adjust in low A ball.
To compare Johnson to Dunn is a disservice to Adam Dunn. The Braves can only hope Johnson can turn it around and become half the prospect Dunn was and player he is. Unfortunately, his plate discipline seems too far gone for him to ever be an elite prospect and he will need to make significant improvements to continue to be considered a prospect period. People will continue to be enamored with his size and power potential, but I won't be. No amount of power can offset upwards of 200 strikeouts per season.
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31 comments
Comments
we should try to pawn this guy off for as much as we can get, because with THAT strikeout rate, i don’t care how many homers you hit…you’re not gonna be anything more than a spare part. pete incavigla anyone?
Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.
by bigjoe on Aug 13, 2008 11:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
but
he is only 19 so no reason to sell low on him right now. At worst he gives the minors depth thats at worst.
braves#1
by rockybull on Aug 14, 2008 12:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
we draft upwards of 50 players a year. theres your depth.
Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.
by bigjoe on Aug 14, 2008 12:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah
but you cant seriously give up on a 19 year old player that had a great year last year and that just needs time. The Braves knew he had a hole in his swing and im sure knew he would have tough seasons before they could try to straighten him out. Dude give him time.
braves#1
by rockybull on Aug 14, 2008 12:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i can only imagine what he’s gonna do next season as the beach. it might get ugly
Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.
by bigjoe on Aug 14, 2008 12:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he
is lookin like a Russell Branyon right now. Maybe he turns into a player in the middle of a Adam Dunn and Branyon. But when he was drafted the Braves and ALL the other teams knew that he had a hole in his swing. He has improved some by gauging what he did last year. He is only 19 so there is time. Never give up on young guys like that so we should definately take our time with him and dont sell low on him. Maybe with another full season or half year in Rome would be good for him. Then move up slowly through the minors. He could be 24 by the time he makes it to the majors but if it is who cares that is very young for a player. I dont know when he will actually make it in the majors im just puttin out the number 24 if the Braves go extra slow with him. Of course he may never make it to the majors you never know.
braves#1
by rockybull on Aug 14, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
just found the PERFECT comp for him. mike hessman. lots of power, few walks, LOTS of strikeouts
Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.
by bigjoe on Aug 14, 2008 12:05 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Thats
low man real low. hahahhahahah
You cant be that heartless man. im sure he will be better than Hessman at least I hope so.
braves#1
by rockybull on Aug 14, 2008 12:08 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
mike hessman is AN OLYMPIAN. are you really doubting USA baseball’s knowledge?
Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.
by bigjoe on Aug 14, 2008 12:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow. Mike Hessman’s had one of the better minor league careers in history. Sure, he’s never been able to translate that into big league success, but he’s got nothing to be ashamed of. Thousands of guys would trade their career for his.
by cbwilk on Aug 14, 2008 1:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I find it hard to get too far down on a guy who’s only 19. He’s got amazing power and that’s worth giving him a chance. Even if he repeats at Rome next season he’ll still be very young for the league.
Another thing is that it’s hard for guys to make major adjustments in their swing in the middle of the season; they get caught up in the day to day grind of the game and are hard pressed to find a reasonable way to dismantle their swing and rebuild it. Doing that would actually lead to worse results than continuing with what they know is a flawed swing. With a guy like Cody, who everyone, including him, knows has problems with his swing, you have to judge his progression in a year to year context. Last year was a step forward. This year is probably going to be a step back. Next year hopefully he can move forward again.
by cbwilk on Aug 14, 2008 1:24 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Right.
I remember people decrying his abilities in ‘06, but the he posts a 1.000+ OPS in Danville last year. We knew he was going to be a project when we drafted him, and its pretty silly to dismiss a prospect with Cody’s talent when he’s in low A ball and on the south side of 20 years old.
by soup du jour on Aug 14, 2008 8:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sweet!
Nobody’s all that high on Cody Johnson, so an article tearing into him is kinda unnecessary. That said, it’s absurd to give up on a 19-year-old prospect with his potential. The Braves knew he was very raw when they drafted him and will take their time to help him develope. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s the sort that spends at least a full season at every stop. Talk to me when he’s actually figuring into Atlanta’s future…
Here we go again: http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/
by ejruiz on Aug 14, 2008 12:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Too Early
It is simply too early to give up on Cody Johnson. At 19 Johnson is s bit young for his league. I agree that his strikeouts are scary, but they are probably as much a reflection of his stike zone judgement as his swing. Both can be improved. More important., Johnson faced adversity in 2006 and responded by dominating a slightly higher league in 2007. That tells me that he is probably teachable and has a good ‘make up’. I think that he has a strong work ethic as well. Last, if the worst or near worst case scenario is Hessman or Branyan then so be it; the best case scenario is that he becomes a player a bit like Dunn (with less OBP and possibly better defense). All told, he will probably wind up in between—more like Phil Plantier, Jay Buhner or Mike Marshall. These players are not All Stars, but they could make solid contributions to their clubs.
Since no two players are exactly alike, it seems plausible that Cody Johnson still has the chance to develop into a valuable ballplayer.
by Stephen in the UAE on Aug 14, 2008 1:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Jay Buhner was an All-Star
and a beast. He had the best hitting stance.
by TradeAndruw on Aug 14, 2008 11:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He also had 30 HRs, 100 RBIs, and a rocket for an arm. What the hell did they trade him for!
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Aug 15, 2008 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wait a minute...
I know a guy who’s gotten 29 HR and 100 RBI before who has a rocket arm.
by VictorW on Aug 15, 2008 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was quoting...

I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Aug 15, 2008 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The last two strike-zone challenged players we've had in the majors haven't faired well.
So what’s Cody Johnson’s problem? Is his swing too slow? Or strike zone judgment? Both?
Whatever it is, please just teach him how the strike zone works instead of telling him to be aggressive.
by VictorW on Aug 14, 2008 2:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
So you're saying this may not ever be worth anything?
by 10-4 on Aug 14, 2008 3:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i’ll give you 5 bucks for it
Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.
by bigjoe on Aug 14, 2008 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Collecting baseball cards as an investment is tricky at best. Older cards are worth something because they’re rare. Newer cards are made in such massive quantities and, for the most part, taken care of by their owners, so they’ll likely never be worth much of anything. The only way current players’ cards have any real value is when they do something amazing for a short period in the majors. If Cody comes up to Atlanta one year and hits 10 homers in a month or something, that’s likely the most valuable this card is ever going to be. They’ll be a bunch of people wanting his stuff, people completely ignorant of the basic economics of buy low/sell high.
You’re best bet is collect cards because you like collecting them, doing it for money simply isn’t worth it.
by cbwilk on Aug 14, 2008 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I once had a Cal Ripken Jr card that was worth $200 bucks. I was stoked since I was young, and then he broke The Iron Horse’s records and the price went down!?
Don’t even know where it is anymore.
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on Aug 14, 2008 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i made $2000 last summer selling autographed, relic, and graded cards. fail
Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.
by bigjoe on Aug 14, 2008 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
overall, or just from the shit i sold? because i still have PLENTY of cards left. if you go on a box by box basis…i spent less on the boxes with good stuff than i got.
Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.
by bigjoe on Aug 14, 2008 7:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, there you go. If you know what you’re doing, and it sounds like you do, buying cards to sell them can work out fine.
by cbwilk on Aug 14, 2008 9:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
IVe got it we should send Cody down to Danville for three days… that always works…
please dont give me a cry baby for this its meant in the spirit of introspective humor
"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."
by Swo12bv on Aug 14, 2008 9:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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