Sleepwalking
by royhobbs
on Jul 8, 2008 10:08 AM EDT
Regardless of the outcome of yesterday's game, I enjoy west-coast trips. It's like being a little kid being allowed to stay up late; Braves baseball out west gives me all the excuse I need to stay up until 1:15 a.m.; or at least in last night's game, until like 12:02 a.m.
ATLANTA BRAVES MANAGER BOBBY COX DURING WORKOUTS
Original caption: Atlanta Braves manager Bobby Cox picks up a First Baseman's glove during workouts at their Walt Disney Resort spring training home in Lake Buena Vista, Florida, February 21, 2002. Last season the Braves were 88-74, winning the National League East.
Who needs Teixiera? Let's just trade his ass for some prospects, we've got a more than experienced guy to take his place! After all, his career lifetime .225 average, and .870 OPS (SB's favorite stat) couldn't be any worse than, say, Scott Thorman, right? Furthermore, Cox the player knows what it feels like to win, from his days of 14 straight division titles as a manager! That kind of experience is invaluable to any team.
Seriously though, we'll be fine. I take more than a positive outlook in the sheer aspect that we didn't get perfecto'd by Kuroda, because nothing would be more unbearable to see that the last two perfect games in the history of the game both were at the expense of the Atlanta Braves. Seriously, after Teix broke it up, I honestly wasn't bothered by the loss. In a rare exception, keeping face was more important, at least to me. I must rescind a lot of things about Campillo I said, because when I thought about it, he's been doing nothing but pitching deep into games, and delivering quality starts (5), while getting an average support of 1.3 runs in his losses.
I honestly thought we would've done better, because the last few years, it seems like we've played well out west, but apparently last night's effort was one hit short of being the polar opposite of my hopes and expectations. Oh well, right..?
Here's to hoping we'll salvage the rest of this series, and continue our strange dominance of Jake Peavy, down in San Diego, despite the fact that he strikes out an average of 10 Braves, but takes a loss every time we meet.
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Now you're just messing with me...
...I was floored at first that Cox had a .870 OPS for his career, but after looking it up I was fooled indeed. In roughly a full season’s worth of PAs (719) Cox could only muster a FYF-like .619 OPS. Although, in his career with runners on 2nd and 3rd he 1.193 OPS with a .765 OBP! 10 walks in 17 PAs…
I stuck around and watched the game until Tex hit the double. After we failed miserably in an attempt to bring him home with 0 outs (typical) I went to bed. Hard luck loss for Campillo, but you can’t get mad at him. He made a couple bad pitches in the 5th inning but then came right back out and shut them down for the next 2. I didn’t see it, but looks like Nunez got the job done in the 8th…11 pitches for 3 outs.
I'm gettin' out of this town alive...even if it kills me.
by Smoltz's Beard on Jul 8, 2008 11:17 AM EDT 0 recs
I picked up the .870 from B-R’s adjusted numbers, but seeing the OBP and SLG individually, I see where the .619 comes from. With his men in scoring position numbers, I imagine he had potential to be one hell of a pinch-hitter, though.
I said dumb things about Campillo (again), but he did indeed give another quality start. I’d say every pitcher makes bad pitches, but Kuroda’s performance quickly contradicts that. Nuñez did adequately, even getting the first batter he faced to get caught looking on a nasty inside pitch.
No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.
by royhobbs on
Jul 8, 2008 11:25 AM EDT
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Yeah, their adjusted numbers still throw me off a little:
Adjusted OPS+
This value is calculated differently from the Total Baseball PRO+ statistic. I chose OPS+ to make this difference more clear. PRO+ as best I can tell isPRO+ = 100 * ( OBP/lgOBP + SLG/lgSLG – 1)/BPF
Where lgOBP and lgSLG are the slugging and on-base percentage of a league-average player, and BPF is the batting park factor. This takes into account the difference in runs scored in a team’s home and road games, so it doesn’t depend on how good an offense or defense a team has.
My method is slightly more complicated, but I think it is more correct. The BPF is set up for runs and the way it is implemented in PRO+ applies it to something other than runs.
My method
Compute the runs created for the league with pitchers removed (basic form) RC = (H + BB + HBP)/(AB + BB + HBP + SF)
Adjust this by the park factor RC’ = RCBPF
Assume that if hits increase in a park, that BB, HBP, TB increase at the some proportion.
Assume that Outs = AB – H (more or less) do not change at all as outs are finite.
Compute the number of H, BB, HBP, TB needed to produce RC’, involves the quadratic formula. The idea for this came from the Willie Davis player comment in the Bill James New Historical Baseball Abstract. I think some others, including Clay Davenport have done some similar things.
Using these adjusted values compute what the league average player would have hit lgOBP, lgSLG in a park.
Take OPS+ = 100 * (OBP/lgOBP* + SLG/lgSLG* – 1)
Note, in my database, I don’t store lgSLG, but store lgTB and similarly for lgOBP and lg(Times on Base), this makes calculation of career OPS+ much easier.
Come again?
It does suck for Jorge, though. He’s giving us innings which is all he can do, but there will still be people out there who look at the fact that his losses outnumber his wins and think he is not getting the job done. I figure you for someone who is a little smarter than that.
Here’s a good article on OPS if you’re bored. It shows how even my favorite stat isn’t perfect.
I'm gettin' out of this town alive...even if it kills me.
by Smoltz's Beard on
Jul 8, 2008 11:55 AM EDT
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Well
You can take partial credit for how I look at some things different, considering W-L means almost nothing to me now. Most of my comments on Campillo were based on his sheer lack of velocity, and how I fear that what happened to Oscar Villarreal might be happening to him, with people beginning to figure him out. Jamie Moyer he is not, but he’s still getting the job done. I’m constantly wondering for how much longer he can keep it up, but then again Russ Ortiz had a 20-win season before.
No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.
by royhobbs on
Jul 8, 2008 12:36 PM EDT
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Good point...
...although personally I feel like Campillo has better stuff than the Vulture did. His changeup is really good, and even though his fastball only tops out at like 88mph he has a nasty hook as well…that strikeout of Kemp early in the game was just ridiculous. Even Kemp had to tip his hat.
The shine has certainly come off the apple with it comes to the Rev as you mentioned. What worries me most is that he has given up 12 BB in his last 42.3 IP (which is still extremely good), when compared to 5 BB in his first 35.4 IP. I hope that trend does not continue. If it does not I think we have a solid mid-rotation starter. He pitched 149.1 innings for Seattle’s AAA team last year, and pitched well in the process, so it looks like he should have plenty of gas left in the tank.
PS…looking at his minor league numbers I can’t really understand why Seattle would let him get away. Anyone know what happened there?
I'm gettin' out of this town alive...even if it kills me.
by Smoltz's Beard on
Jul 8, 2008 12:55 PM EDT
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Simple, the Mariners FO are a bunch of idiots and didn’t see what everyone else can see. But that’s par for the course when it comes to the Mariners as an organization.
This is the same team that signed Silva to a mega deal, moved Ichiro back to right field so Riggleman could platoon Willie Friggin Bloomquist and Jeremy Reed in CF. It’s the same Organization that seems to think that Jose Vidro should bat Clean up. When anyone with a couple seconds on their hands can look up the fact he is the worst DH in the American League going on Two Years now.
This is the same organization that gave up far more for Eric “The Interview” Bedard, than the Mets gave up for Johan Santana.
by RainDelay on
Jul 9, 2008 2:22 PM EDT
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you forget to mention that they signed a catcher hitting .220 to a 3 year extension when they have a ML-ready uber prospect in jeff clement waiting at AAA.
by bigjoe on
Jul 9, 2008 3:23 PM EDT
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Doh’ Yeah there is that. Not to mention they’ve got a lefty mashing corner outfielder sitting in Tacoma. Though he strikes out a ton still, that’s the only hitch in his giddy up.
by RainDelay on
Jul 9, 2008 4:40 PM EDT
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I actually stayed up
After saying I wouldn’t make it, I got sucked into the no-no. Too bad it wasn’t the good guys….
by secondbass on Jul 8, 2008 11:26 AM EDT 0 recs
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