Talking Chop: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Sports blogs for fans, by fans.
Around SBN: Fedor vs Rogers Results and Live Coverage

The Offseason

Let's look at our current outlook for 2009 so we can evaluate what we need to do to improve it. I'm going off the assumption that we do not resign Mark Kotsay.

LF L Gregor Blanco/R Matt Diaz
SS R Yunel Escobar
1B L Casey Kotchman
3B S Chipper Jones
C L Brian McCann
RF R Jeff Francoeur
2B L Kelly Johnson
CF L Jordan Schafer

The first thing that jumps out at me is this lineup might be susceptible to left-handed pitching. And for some weird reason, we face an s-load more left-handers than everyone else. I don't exactly hate this lineup, but I don't really like it either.

There is much power beyond Chipper and McCann, and it's a little overly left-handed. Leftfield and centerfield could use obvious upgrades, so a power hitting right-handed outfielder for the next two seasons needs to be on the Braves shopping list. I think power is the first thing that the Braves need, for them to be right-handed isn't really a need, and it would be our benefit that they're just a stop gap. Here are the candidates in free agency.

LF R Pat Burrell
LF L Adam Dunn
RF R Vladimir Guerrero (has a team option)
LF R Manny Rameriz
LF L Raul Ibanez

I think the best fit for our lineup would be Pat Burrell. He's making $14 million a year this year and would probably be seeking a slight raise. The Phillies are obviously going to try to resign him, but he's making close to what I believe is his current value, so he wouldn't be seeking a big enough raise that they couldn't necessarily afford. It would probably come down to years - next year he'll be 33. Obviously, it will probably take a 4-5 year deal somewhere in the neighborhood of $15 million per year. I like Pat Burrell for the 2009-2010 season, but I'm not sure how we'd feel about him at 36-37, possibly blocking one of our premier outfield prospects.

Dunn could be a good fit, since there isn't much interest in him. He probably could be had on a short term contract, albeit probably overpaid. His $13 million option almost wasn't excercised, so he probably makes what he should be making - if not a little overpaid. If he can be had at 2 years/$28 million, I'd say do it.

The only other good fit on that list would be Raul Ibanez. Next season, he'll be 37. He's declined the past three seasons and he's getting older, so obviously a one year contract might do. He's making $5.5 million this year, which is underpaid, so he might want to make up for those productive years he wasn't paid that much. I'm guesstimating again here, but I'd say he's looking for a one year deal close to $10 million. Again, in past years, I would say no to that but witht he amount of money we'll have, I say go for it. If he has a productive season, we might be able to get some draft picks out of it.

Out of that group, I think Dunn makes the most sense for the Braves.

I'm going on the assumption that Tom Glavine and Smoltz will be brought back on very cheap, team friendly deals and Tim Hudson is missing the 2009 season.

SP R Jair Jurrjens
SP L Jo-Jo Reyes
SP R Jorge Campillo
SP R Charlie Morton
SP L/R Tom Glavine/John Smoltz (Maybe their production combined will equal one starter)

Well, this obviously needs a lot of upgrading. Jair Jurrjens and Jorge Campillo are my only locks. We need a frontline starter and a middle of the rotation guy. Need. Here are our free agent options:

SP R A.J. Burnett (may opt out of contract)
SP R Paul Byrd
SP R Jon Garland
SP R Derek Lowe
SP R Mike Mussina
SP L Oliver Perez
SP CC Sabathia
SP R Ben Sheets
SP L Randy Wolf

We thankfully have a semi-deep pitching free agency pool this year, well at least deeper than the outfield pool. We need at least two starters for next season, and not backend of the rotation either - we have plenty of those.

The biggest and best fit is CC Sabathia. I'm a big fan of him, despite his size being risky for later on in his contract. I think he'd be a great fit in Atlanta, giving us the ace we truly need. We have the money to afford him. He's going to be seeking quite the hefty contract, somewhere in the neighborhood of $18-20 million per year, for about 6-7 years - and he'll likely get it. We can use all that money we saved up for Teixeira to sign Sabathia and we'd likely get a better return.

Burnett will likely opt out, but I just don't like him. He's not a likeable guy. Plus, that's a bad contract for someone waiting to happen - he's injury prone. Speaking of bad contracts waiting to happen, Oliver Perez would be on my "no" list. He sounds valuable, young left handed power pitcher, but he's a freakin' headcase. Randy Wolf could be a cheap one or two year deal, but I don't think he likes the East Coast.

Jon Garland is very attractive as well. A lot of people don't like his lack of strikeouts and WHIP, but I think he's been around long enough to prove that he's not a fluke. He's a solid #2 starter who could eat a lot of innings.

Sheets is injury prone, but still very attractive. His past might make him a little cheaper than he should be. Stealing the Brewer's 1-2 punch would be an awesome offseason, but I don't know how realistic that is to do. That's a lot of outbidding.

That said, I think we should outbid everyone for a frontline pitcher and then pick up someone like Derek Lowe for a year or two to round it out until our younger pitching really develops. The frontline starter we need for a long time, so a long contract is fine - it's what we want.

Best case scenario:
SP L CC Sabatha
SP R Ben Sheets/R Jon Garland
SP R Tim Hudson
SP R Jair Jurrjens
SP Tom Glavine/R John Smoltz/R Jorge Campillo/L Jo-Jo Reyes

I just pooped a little looking at that. That obviously can't be what we expect, but I'd love Wren forever if he pulled that off - he could then do no wrong.

That's what we can do in the free agency market. The trade market is a little trickier, since everyone wants to contend for next season and people just don't trade their frontline starters for no elite prospects - which a lot of you can't stand the thought of doing. I think we should still pull off a huge trade (this time for a non-Scott Boras free agent). I'm going to go out on a limb here and say the Braves will need a window of negotiations before they make another big trade.

I think the Braves should look for a true leadoff hitter, a power hitting outfielder, and a starting pitching for next season on the trade market. A leadoff hitter has been sorely lacked by the Braves offense since the days of Furcal - it could really bring some consistency to the lineup. I love Blanco and all - but he's a fourth outfielder/borderline starter.

LF R Jason Bay
OF L Carl Crawford (he's about to start getting a raise the cost-conscious Rays might not to pay since he's no longer the face of the franchise)
OF S Randy Winn
OF L David DeJesus
SP R Justin Duchscherer

I can't think of many starting pitchers that might be on the trade market and worth the Braves time. I think they'll have to stick to position players if they want to make a significant trade.

Jason Bay with a negotiation window would be the perfect fit of everything. But trade talks are apparently "dead" about that topic. Carl Crawford would give us our leadoff guy, but it'll also take a fortune in prospects.

I think the best fit would be Randy Winn for centerfield. He'd be a nice affordable leadoff man for the 2009 season and he'd gain us some draft picks when he left. He wouldn't take a lot of prospects to trade for and we could definitely keep our elite ones. He's only under contract for next year, so he wouldn't be blocking anyone. Winn switch hits with speed and gap power. He'd be a good pickup for us next season, playing left and/or center.

1 recs  |  Comment 31 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

Crawford is overrated

He can lead off when he has more than 1 season of .350 OBP. I’d rather have Blanco leading off. Crawford is basically a poor man’s Soriano.

I don’t really want Sabatthia because it’s too much of a commitment, even if he is awesome. Sheets for less years and less money is worse than that cause he’s always injured.

by VictorW on Jul 30, 2008 7:04 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

So I guess we’re screwd for next year too then, huh?

by beeniez on Jul 30, 2008 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Schafer..

...can everyone please take a step back. Schafer isn’t a lock for next season, by chance have you looked at his performance since returning from his suspension. One Word – HORRIBLE. He’s not ready….

by RainDelay on Jul 30, 2008 7:42 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

he’s been hitting well lately…average is up over .240. BABY STEPS

Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.

by bigjoe on Jul 30, 2008 8:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He’s still our projected centerfielder next year, unless Kotsay comes back – which I doubt. It’s not that I just really want him to be our centerfielder next year, it’s just “who else?” at the moment. Unless we make a move, that’s likely who it’ll be.

by beeniez on Jul 31, 2008 1:07 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Even then..

...they’ll find another option – Like Blanco (like it or not) we have options, not good ones mind you but they’re there. But there is no way Schafer makes the club out of ST next year, he’s just not ready.

by RainDelay on Jul 31, 2008 3:06 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Anderson is an option. With rebuilding going on, might as well throw him out there and see if he can hack it in the big leagues. If not, try something else.

by mburris1 on Jul 31, 2008 7:53 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

anderson/blanco platoon in center. ADAM DUNN in left. you all knew this was coming, don’t act surprised

Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.

by bigjoe on Jul 31, 2008 11:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

FYI,

Blanco and Anderson are both better than Winn, who kinda sucks. Bay is the best option, but DeJesus is probably going to be the guy that would be the most valuable in return for what we would have to give up. He’s a very underrated player.

by J-Turn14 on Jul 31, 2008 4:04 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I wish the braves would have dealt kotsay so we would get a chance to see more of josh anderson and brandon jones, but i’m happy we kept on to ohman, maybe we can keep him next year

by JoeTuohy on Jul 31, 2008 9:14 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Don't know

I think we are going to have to see what we have in Anderson cause I am tired of Blanco. I know the stats aren’t that bad but damn all the little things not getting done and he just isn’t that good at stealing bases. Wish BC would give the steal sign a little more by the way and play small ball which should happen with this lineup for the rest of the year.

I did not realize Derek Lowe was a FA cause I would love to have him to take Huddy’s spot next year and sign him for a 3 year deal and give him enough to comej say around 10/ year. Also while I know CC is awesome I just think this is where teams get stuck and we should throw an offer to someone like Sheets who I realize has injury issues but if healthy could win the Cy and that would give us a 1-2 punch with Sheets and Lowe followed by JJ and Campy and Morton/Reyes. But yeah Sheets would be good for maybe a 4 year 55 – 60 million deal.

I also agree Schafer is not ready right now and we need to look at someone so we don’t have to look at freakin Blanco anymore. But I agree that Dunn is the best fit for us. If we were able to get him then I think we could go with trading one of the left handed bats and the one I would go with would be KJ. I love the guy but I think Infante can play for us everyday cause it seems that he always makes contact on the ball and provides solid defense and this way there is no platoon at 2nd which BC loves to put at any position.

by H0SS on Aug 1, 2008 9:53 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

You have a point about the Blanco/Anderson situation. It isn’t as though Anderson player poorly when he was up…he actually played rather well. Not sure why he wasn’t given another chance.

I do not agree with you on the stealing bases issue, but it will be interesting to see how Bobby changes his managerial style (if he does change it) now that this team is going nowhere this season.

I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.

by Smoltz's Beard on Aug 1, 2008 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I just feel that this team can’t wait on a 3 run homer cause Chipper and B-Mac are really the only ones producing and Chipper isn’t gonna see anything the rest of the year. I just think that is the best chance to get a win.

by H0SS on Aug 1, 2008 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No, I understand what you mean. There’s zippy power in this lineup with those two. But increasing SB chances with a team that just is not very fast seems like an over-reaction to me. Chipper and McCann shouldn’t be stealing and here’s the rest:

Infante – 34/48 career SBs
Escobar – 7/14 career SBs
Johnson – 20/28 career SBs
Francoeur – 9/20 career SBs
Kotchman – 8/15 career SBs
Kotsay – 91/145 career SBs
Blanco – 10/14 career SBs

I don’t know about you, but there aren’t many people on this team that I want risking another out. Blanco, KJ, Infante…maybe. I just don’t think it’s worth it.

I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.

by Smoltz's Beard on Aug 1, 2008 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I just want him to play the youngsters. That’s all I ask.

by VegasAces on Aug 1, 2008 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Indeed…perfect example is last night. Give Sammons a chance, and he’s shown that he’s already more valuable than Corky

I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.

by Smoltz's Beard on Aug 1, 2008 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Speaking of steals

Teix got a stolen base last night. Funny how he moves to an AL squad, and ends up having to play a more aggressive-running NL style, just like that. He didn’t even once attempt here, but I guess Scioscia expects everyone to attempt it at least once a year for Anaheim. Pretty much every starting position player has at least two swipes, and has been caught at least once this season.

No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.

by royhobbs on Aug 1, 2008 10:11 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I watched that game last night (as it was on in my local market), and I was surprised when Tex took off. I think the Yanks were too because the throw wasn’t close – like Pudge was like “oh shit, he’s going?!” then had to rush a throw.

I know the stats don’t really support stealing bases, but damn, its fun to watch the Angels’ style of play.

by VegasAces on Aug 1, 2008 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed

There’s a reason why I say the Angels are my favorite AL squad – they’re fun to watch. Mike Scoscia is watching everything, and he does a lot of little things not many people think about; like when he has the pitcher throw over to first several times, not necessarily to prevent a steal, but to get an idea of a base-runner’s first step, reaction times, etc. All the steals, the hitting and running, and who could forget Vlad? There’s nobody else who can golf swing a low and away slider and still somehow manage to get it to fly over the Green Monster like he does. He defies all conventional logic of plate discipline because there’s practically nothing he can’t hit and drive somewhere for runs.

No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.

by royhobbs on Aug 1, 2008 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I love the stories you hear about Vlad arriving for his first big league tryout with a cardboard baseball glove and one shoe 3 sizes too big so he had to put a rolled up sock in the heel.

I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.

by Smoltz's Beard on Aug 1, 2008 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

.962 OPS in 12 seasons, and 17 homers shy of 400. What I find more amusing is the fact that a guy like him somehow managed to survive 7-8 years in Montreal, when he doesn’t even speak a lick of English. I wonder if he picked up any French while out there?

No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.

by royhobbs on Aug 1, 2008 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

wtf?

I think it’s funny to think about a guy like Vlad in Montreal for 7-8 years of his career, when he doesn’t speak a lick of English, let alone any French. I wonder if he picked any French up along the way? Oh yeah, .962 OPS in 12 seasons, and 17 blasts shy of 400.

No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.

by royhobbs on Aug 1, 2008 11:00 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Not sure which post to respond to...

...but I choose this one! He certainly is a character. I feel like he’s one of the players that I’d tell stories about seeing him in his prime to my kids.

I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.

by Smoltz's Beard on Aug 1, 2008 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

How can anyone not like this guy?
Veteran pitcher Jamie Moyer described Guerrero’s style: “I say this respectfully: he’s a freak. He’s a very good hitter without a strike zone. He can hit the ball in, hit the ball off the plate away, hit the ball up and go get the ball that’s down. He covers the plate, and beyond.”
While he continued to swing at pitches that were clearly balls, he also continued to hit them with authority. In one instance, Guerrero got a base hit off a pitch that bounced before arriving at home plate.
In the opening best-of-5 round of the playoffs, the Angels were swept by the Boston Red Sox, and Guerrero had an odd batting line: just a .167 average, but six RBI in three games.
Guerrero bats without wearing batting gloves, a custom rarely seen in modern baseball. In an interview with Yahoo! Sports, he attributed this to helping his grandfather pull cows home barehanded as a young boy in the Dominican Republic.

No piss on those hands.

He has provided several job opportunities in his hometown in the Dominican Republic through his business ventures: a cement-block factory, a propane distributorship, a supermarket, a livestock and vegetable farm, and a women’s clothing store.

One of these is not like the other.

wiki’d

No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.

by royhobbs on Aug 1, 2008 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Haha…I remember seeing Ichiro slap a basehit on a ball that bounced before arriving at the plate, but I never knew Vlad did it. That’s awesome. Almost as good as when some team was trying to IBB Miguel Cabrera and the pitch accidently caught too much of the plate…so Cabrera laced it into the RF gap for a hit.

I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.

by Smoltz's Beard on Aug 1, 2008 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

We’re literally screwed for 2009 with Hudson gone. The chances of Smoltz and Glavine pitching effectively are too low to count on, and without them the rotation will be Jurrjens and whatever is cobbled together out of Morton, James, Reyes, Campillo, Bennett, etc. That’s not so bad if all we’re looking for is development out of those guys – experience can’t hurt them – but our rotation will allow a lot of runs. Now I’m fine with rebuilding for a year and waiting for folks like Redmond, Medlen, and Hanson to be ready ~2010, but some might not be.

If that’s the case we’ll need to spend bucks on free agent starters. The list posted earlier is not promising. Sabathia is the only one I’d pay market price for, and the chances we’d outbid the Yankees, Mets, etc. aren’t terribly high. The rest are either in decline, injury risks, or 4th starter types. Sabathia would be on the order of a 5 win improvement replacing our 5th starter, but even that wouldn’t be enough to push us into playoff contention, not without other free agent signings at least.

Turning to the offense it’s pretty reasonable to assume Brian McCann, Casey Kotchman, Chipper Jones, and Yunel Escobar will have jobs next season. I could see Kelly Johnson being moved for a pitcher if the determine Lillibridge could handle the job. Regardless, we’ll have holes throughout the outfield that will need to be filled. I can’t see us recommitting to Kotsay, not when we have similar options available for millions less in Blanco and Anderson. Assuming they play center and take up the outfield bench role, that leaves left and right. I have to assume Francoeur will feature as the lead in right field, though using Brandon Jones as his caddy would work defensively and offensively. Finding a left fielder that can contribute in 2010 and onward should be objective number one.

Thankfully, there’s a few of those available, if at serious cost. I’d prefer Adam Dunn simply because he’s undervalued for a player of his caliber and we might be able to get him for something reasonable like 4 years, even if we need to pay him a boatload of money.

There’s certainly a balance to keep in mind however; the 2010 free agent class will be stronger both in terms of outfielders and pitchers and our money would be better spent contending in 2010 and beyond than in a quixotic attempt to keep it going in 2009. I’ve had enough of three seasons of mediocrity myself; I can sit through another with a reasonable expectation of contending after.

by 17843 on Aug 1, 2008 12:50 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Good stuff as usual. I tend to think the same way you do on all counts.

Moving Lillibridge to 2B could be very interesting, although after all the shit I’ve given Kelly Johnson about being a horrible defensive 2B BP rates him well above average. I guess that’s what I get for trusting my eyes instead of the numbers! He’s even got a WARP of 4.2 this season, so I’m not sure if replacing him would be a great idea after all.

Adam Dunn or bust in 2009!

I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.

by Smoltz's Beard on Aug 1, 2008 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Be nice to see Kelly rebuild his value somewhat with a big last two months. He’s a chip that could be moved to a team with a 2B hole for a starter and Lillibridge could assumedly handle the position well enough and hit well enough. Dealing from depth has worked very well for the Braves recently.

I think the main thing of concern is not do anything that will remove our ability to contend in 2010 and onward. If we sign free agents, make sure it’s someone who will be a horse in 2012 as well as 2009.

by 17843 on Aug 1, 2008 7:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

kelly frightens me right now. his walks and hits are both down on last year. OPS is something like 60 points lower, and in a young player like that, its a little disconcerting.

Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.

by bigjoe on Aug 1, 2008 10:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Welcome to the SB Nation blog about Atlanta Braves.
Start posting about the Braves »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Dalemurphy_small
Late October/Early November Rosterbation
Dsc01731_small
A 2009 Season, Up Close and Personal

Recent FanPosts

Avatar_small
Minor
527368058_l_small
Brian McCann Pictures
527368058_l_small
Chipper Jones Pictures
527368058_l_small
Mike Gonzalez Pictures
527368058_l_small
Jair Jurrjens Pictures
527368058_l_small
Tim Hudson Pictures
Small
Best part about the '09 WS...
527368058_l_small
Martin Prado Pictures
Images_small
Good Old Baseball Question
527368058_l_small
Yunel Escobar Pictures

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >


Managers

Gondeee_small gondeee

Authors

My_hair_is_a_bird-257x300_small yondaime4

Dsc01731_small royhobbs

Dalemurphy_small cbwilk