Tex to L.A.(s) Gaining Steam

by gondeee on Jul 26, 2008 9:36 PM EDT in Trade News Comment 18 comments

Here is some of the latest rumor mongering from Keith Law of ESPN:

The market for Mark Teixeira seems to be slowly heating up. The two L.A. clubs have shown the strongest interest, although Boston and Tampa Bay are waiting in the wings.

Arizona is a "highly unlikely" destination, according to one source. He's an ideal fit for the Angels, who are getting no production from their DH spot this year (except when Vlad Guerrero is in it, which means they get no production from right field).

The fit for the Dodgers is less obvious, since a trade would either include James Loney or push him to the bench. Teixeira has been as good or better in the second halves of every season he's played in the majors since his first season in 2003, and has a career second-half OPS of .943.

To the extent that a "second-half player" exists, Teixeira would be it. And there's no doubt that he'll command two draft picks -- probably a late first-round pick and a sandwich pick -- when he leaves as a free agent this offseason.

The Angels have long been a rumored destination, but the infinite obstacle seems to be, will the Angels part with the prospects needed to acquire Tex. The problem with trying to move Teixeira to the Angels is that they have the best record in baseball and they've been playing great since the break. It might be tough to convince the Angels to give up young talent and change the mix on a winning ballclub.

The good news is that other teams are making deals for bonus bats and arms. Every Xavier Nady or Casey Blake that gets moved to a contending team for qualtiy talent increases the chance that Teixeira will be moved for a good return. Keep in mind that when asking for a ransom in prospects in return for Tex the other team will also be getting two high draft picks next year, so that makes the expectation of what we would want in return higher.

If people around baseball thought the asking price for Nady and Bay was high, I wonder what the opening offer will be for Teixeira, espeically after the quantity and quality of prospects that was exchanged for Nady and Blake.

Sunday's game could make the choice an easy one. If the Braves lose, then we could be 8.5 games out of first -- that is clearly sell mode.

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If the Braves lose, then we could be 8.5 games out of first -- that is clearly sell mode.

Yes, I agree, but if we win, what then? Say, even, we sweep Philly (which we obviously won’t) and sweep St. Louis…..this team is so inconsistent, could we as fans really expect them to go on to the playoffs? What if we catch both of those teams having a streak of bad luck – or if they catch us when we’re hot? What next? It just seems like we don’t have a good enough team of starting nine EVERY game to pull this thing off – there is no consistency. What’s Frank waiting on? I guess he can hold on until the deadline and hope to get a maximum return on Tex and whoever, and I can understand that. But really – does he, or anybody, really believe we have a shot?
My thinking all along has been this: if we go to Philly and sweep the series, great. But would that really have changed anything? I mean, Chipper is down for a while, Hampton had the possibility of giving us hope in the starting rotation, which he did not, but even still….would Hampton’s return have been enough to help us win the division? I mean, every other game, at least one of our murderers row bashers makes a start (Infante, Gotay, Prado, Miller, or Norton). That’s just not going to do it – not as starters. I want the team to win – I really do – but a sweep would have, in my opinion, prolonged the nightmare. And having the delusion that we could trade for a first baseman and still be in the race is insane; who is going to realistically replace Tex and put us over the top into the playoffs? And don’t forget, Tex historically dominates in the 2nd half. But would even a Tex-sized 2nd half really help us? I’m asking because I don’t know. I personally don’t think so, but I guess the question may be moot very soon.

I don’t really know where this is going; I’m a very frustrated fan. I guess I’m ready to get rid of Tex, Kotsay, Ohman, and start looking to next year. I would also love nothing more than to come back here in September and eat these words, but I just don’t see that happening.

by secondbass on Jul 26, 2008 10:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Bleh.

I’m not sure I agree with you when you say that that the prospects dealt for Casey Blake and Xavier Nady were quality ones. Tabata is the headliner in the package that Pitt got for Nady (and Marte) but he’s all projection and fell off the face of the Earth (.630) in AA; yeah, he’s young, but that’s the critical transition to the bigs right there. Meloan was the prize of the Blake deal for the Indians and he’s come back from elbow surgery only to severely underperform in AAA; besides, his walks have always been dangerously high. The rest of the guys those teams got are best described as “blah”. Moreover, they dealt guys with more value to those teams than Tex presents. I mean, he’d supplant Loney for the Dogers, while Blake will take over for Nomar and the whole cast of patchwork at the hot corner. The Yanks desperately needed relief help and Nady will be with them next year too (1B).

Please check out my blog at http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/ , now redesigned and recommited!

by ejruiz on Jul 26, 2008 10:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Even if the Braves win they’re 6.5 back. That’s sell mode when you’re suffering the injuries and counting on minor miracles like Campillo continuing to pitch effectively to contend. The frightening part about this is that Frank Wren and Co. could possibly be stupid enough to think two games makes much of a difference at this point.

Anyway, I like the Angels as a fit for Tex. Every other suitor has better options; the Dodgers would just be replacing the 2nd best hitter in their lineup when they really just need to bench Pierre/Andruw in favor of LaRoche; the Yankees solved their issues with Nady; the Mets have Delgado back on track; the Twins don’t have the financial will; the Red Sox have no need. Only the Angels would stand to make the requisite gains to justify giving up the package they’d need to give up.

They’d basically be shifting Kotchman from 1B to DH and forcing the Anderson/Matthews/Rivera black hole from two lineup spots to one; ie, over the next 250 plate appearances they’d replace 251/312/348 production with 276/384/497 production – equivalent to about 19 more runs scored or a tad over 2 wins the rest of the way. Those wins are extra padding in the race for home field advantage in the playoff and not having to play four games in Boston or the Bronx.

The question is what we’d get back. I’d start the bidding at Brandon Wood and see if I could get anything else. Wood is major league ready, has produced big numbers in the PCL the past two seasons, but has gotten dicked around playing time wise in the bigs and hasn’t gotten the chance to establish himself. At 24 next season and with a PECOTA projected line of 257/330/493 over the next six years, he’s a guy who can be expected to be a building block towards a Braves championship team over the next half decade. He’s also a pretty logical replacement for Teixeira if Chipper made the shift to first. He’s “blocked” in Anaheim by inferior slap hitters, thus we may be able to get him.

by 17843 on Jul 26, 2008 11:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'd start the bid with Jordan Walden

The kid has a mid to upper 90s FB with good offspeed stuff.

by Jay212033 on Jul 27, 2008 12:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’d have to think he’s basically untouchable at this point. The way he’s dominated A-ball, his profile, his stuff, all that says ace level pitcher. Few of those get traded, especially when you’re talking about the Angels.

by 17843 on Jul 27, 2008 1:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

PCL players scare me

I don’t know too much about him other than his numbers and it doesn’t look like he has good plate discipline, but nice power. How much do you think the PCL helps his production? Especially when he moves to a neutral to pitcher’s park in Turner field. But if he really can produce 257/330/493 in the majors then we better grab him.

by VictorW on Jul 27, 2008 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Park factors are accounted for in his PECOTA projections and his plate discipline is actually pretty good, he just has a mediocre batting average that even a good BB% can’t support. PCL obviously helps, but Salt Lake City isn’t Lancaster, CA or Bakersfield, CA either.

by 17843 on Jul 27, 2008 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah I wasn’t real impressed with what the Pirates got from the Yankees. Also Nady and Bay (if traded) would not be exiting via FA after this season so I don’t think that’s a fair comparison with Tex. I just can’t see the Dodgers pulling the trigger on a Tex trade. As to the other poster’s question “what’s Frank waiting on?”, he’s waiting to make the best deal possible and that likely doesn’t happen until close to the trade deadline.

by dwbrave on Jul 26, 2008 11:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yep

I pointed out in the next few words….

by secondbass on Jul 26, 2008 11:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This from Will Carroll:

The Yankees’ acquisition of Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte last night may have upped the ante, as industry sources are indicating that discussions for Braves first baseman Mark Teixeira have heated up dramatically over the past 48 hours, with as many as six teams now interested, including some new parties from the American League. Teixeira has consistently been a big second-half player and is the best bat available at the deadline. As an aside, he’ll also be worth two draft picks when he likely departs whatever team he’s playing for to pursue free agency. That combination means that Atlanta will be looking for a sizable package similar to the kinds received in the past for MVP-level players like Randy Johnson and Carlos Beltran.

braves#1

by rockybull on Jul 26, 2008 11:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

if we do trade him, frank wren is going to horribly blow this and get shit in return. i am not looking forward to the next few years with this fucking goon in charge

by bigjoe on Jul 26, 2008 11:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Really?

What has he done that’s so horrible? Even if you want to give credit for the Rents trade to Schuerholz, he got us Ohman and Infante for Ascanio (who is predictably struggling in AAA for the Cubs). Even the Kotsay trade that I rail against was made better by the fact that Devine has had just as much injury trouble with the A’s as Mark has for us. The Glavine signing was iffy, but not horrible. Am I missing something???

Please check out my blog at http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/ , now redesigned and recommited!

by ejruiz on Jul 27, 2008 1:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

signing ruben gotay for no real reason. keeping thorman in AAA when he could help off the bench. signing greg norton for no real reason. demoting francoeur for THREE FUCKING DAYS, and assuming because he had 2 good games, that he’s somehow become a totally different hitter. thinking that matt diaz was an everyday player. giving glavine a fuckload of money as a nostalgia trip. trading a guy who has been horribly misused, AND ANOTHER PLAYER, for someone who isn’t playing league average this year. trading yet another utility IF, AND ANOTHER PLAYER, for a AAA LOOGY.

by bigjoe on Jul 27, 2008 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Overblown...

You’re pining for Scott Thorman (.226/.238/.452 in 62 career pinh hit AB), Willy Aybar (236/.323/.379 in 140 AB this year) and a handful of nameless specs? You do realize that Joey Devine hasn’t pitched in a game for two months, right? You’re THAT upset about the petty cash we gave to Gotay and Norton, both of whom had shown themselves to be useful bats in the recent past? Were you really opposed to giving Diaz (OPS of .889 v. LHP and .783 v. RHP over the last three seasons) a shot at a full-time starting job this season?

Look, Wren mishandled Francouer (who should have stayed in the minors for the remainder of this year) and the Glavine contract hurt more because of the lost draft pick than the money, so I agree with you there. None of that, however, is catastrophic. Using hindsight and hyperbole to try to make things look obvious or yourself smarter isn’t impressive or useful. Until Frank Wren truly messes up something big, I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt.

Please check out my blog at http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/ , now redesigned and recommited!

by ejruiz on Jul 27, 2008 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed, bigjoe

But maybe for different reasons? I think the way he handled the Francoeur demotion was absolutely insane.

by secondbass on Jul 27, 2008 7:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Once Again. I Agree With 17843!

I’d love to get Brandon Wood from the Angels, but I’d also try to snag something else as well. Any chance Garrett Anderson will be a Type B free agent this offseason, meaning we’d take him back to even the money and get a draft pick for him later? Maybe if we do that we can get another decent prospect to boot while we suffer through Garret in LF.

Please check out my blog at http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/ , now redesigned and recommited!

by ejruiz on Jul 27, 2008 1:50 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

He has his best season in the last five to build on (2007) and he was already a fairly solid Type B this past off-season. Might’ve not fallen out of such status. I just think a. the Angels overrate the hell out of him and b. rightly see him as the superior option going forward over Matthews.

by 17843 on Jul 27, 2008 2:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs