Don't Think that Two Extra Drafts Picks are Automatic

by gondeee on Jul 22, 2008 9:46 AM EDT in Trade News Comment 13 comments

One of the scenarios in the whole Mark Teixeira, do-we-trade-him-or-do-we-keep-him saga, has us keeping him (presumably because there is no where to trade him, or we have some delusion about staying in the race) and just accepting the two draft picks we would receive as compensation when he would presumably sign with another team (after we offer him arbitration). Many people from beat writers to bloggers have floated this scenario and suggested that the two draft picks would be a manageable return on our investment of prospects plus a year and a half of Tex.

Well don't start counting your chickens before they've hatched. Kevin Goldstein over at Baseball Prospectus recently posted a story about the excesses that some teams are spending on first round draft picks this year. The teams with the money -- New York and Boston -- are spending several millions of dollars to sign their first round picks and are also spending lavishly on later round picks with first round skill sets. Meanwhile, other more thrifty teams are having a hard time signing their first round picks for reasonable amounts of money (even when you consider reasonable in the baseball contract sense).

Consider that if we end up keeping Teixeira through the end of the season and getting two draft picks when he signs elsewhere, then we may have to pony up anywhere from $6 million to $14 million just to sign all of our picks before the second round. Add on to that the possibility of Will Ohman bringing at least one supplemental first round pick and that's four players who would be expecting first-round money.

On one hand it's a good problem to have since you are no doubt infusing your system with an amazing amount of talent at one time, on the other hand, you may have to pay through the nose for that talent.

In the past the Braves have been on both sides of the fence between paying first round money for first round talent and trying to get some players at a bargain. Certainly their history with draft-and-follow players means that they're willing to shell out good money to players picked lower in the draft, but their history with guys like second round pick Josh Fields last year and fifth round pick Jacob Thompson this year shows that they may not be willing to go as far as this new market is pushing some of these contracts. Also, don't forget that the Jason Heyward negotiations last year dragged on until three days before the deadline to sign draftees.

Maybe it's too early to worry about this problem, but it's something to consider when considering some of the packages being floated for Tex.

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Do we still have any extra cash from this past draft since we didn’t have a 1st round pick? Or did we throw it at all of the other guys we drafted?

I guess I should be one to talk.
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There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.

by Smoltz's Beard on Jul 22, 2008 9:56 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Spending Money.

A lot of people assume that we have to reinvest our freed up payroll space into the major league team, but we could also use some of it on the draft and international signings. I would not be opposed to spending our Tex money (~$12M) on top of whatever we normally alot to the draft. Does that not make sense? Are people opposed to this course of action for a year?

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by ejruiz on Jul 22, 2008 11:01 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

That's why you gotta draft well.

I think, overall, the Braves scouting department has done a good job.

And as for super expensive draft picks, they tend to make it known before hand. Porcello comes to mind. J.D. Drew did it when the Phillies drafted him, but they drafted him anyway and tried to strongarm him. Guthrie did it. Basically, you aren’t going to shell out too much for a draft pick unless he explicitly says he wants a huge signing bonus. They tend to be top 10 talent with Boras as an agent and then “fall” to the 20’s cause a good team with payroll made a deal with them. Occasionally there’s exceptions but I don’t think it’s something we have to worry about.

by VictorW on Jul 22, 2008 11:36 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

14 million before the 2nd?

Where are you getting that number? Even if we have 3 extra picks from Ohman and Tex, that works out to 3.5 million per guy, which is outrageous. The highest the Braves have EVER paid is 2.2 to Frenchy, and that was because he was a top 5-10 talent. The Braves are not going to get the chance to draft even one guy like him next year, much less 4. Most players still sign for slot or thereabouts, regardless of the histrionics of people reacting to the few teams that blow their wad in the later rounds. Heck, we went overslot on Heyward, a steal at 14, and still paid him “only” 1.7 mil.

Frankly, I’d even be shocked if we hit your “low” number of 6 million if we get all those comp picks.

by aCone419 on Jul 22, 2008 12:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Cosider...

...the Braves want to sign one of those “considered major league ready” college players, and they are asking for some sort of major league contract worth around $10 million. That’s one way to rebuild your system really fast and get premium talent at the same time, but if we go that route we better be ready to pony up. Also, a lot depends on what gets paid out this year and those figures have been rising.

by gondeee on Jul 22, 2008 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not gonna happen

Name one player who fits that description who has ever been available where the Braves will be picking. Those guys only come around every now and then, and when they do they don’t get past the first 5 picks.

by aCone419 on Jul 22, 2008 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Never say never

Look, I realize I’m throwing out some rather unusual circumstances, but they’re not beyond the realm of possibilities. To say never discounts the kind of demands that could be offered and the depth of high-dollar talent that could be available. The piece was a hypothetical and a cautionary note about where the draft and draft bonuses are headed.

by gondeee on Jul 22, 2008 9:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I understand what you are saying...

...but you are incorrect. Buster Posey broadcast an outlandish demand for a 10 mil contract this year, and that led him to fall… all the way to the Giants at #5. And he isn’t even really in the same class as Tex and Wieters, so his demands were about as ridiculous as can be.

Never. Immediate impact 10 mil MLB contract worthy bats are never available in the mid first round. Never.

by aCone419 on Jul 23, 2008 9:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah those numbers don’t make any sense.

by dwbrave on Jul 22, 2008 12:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Jason heyward

had nothing to do with a difference in price. He was only looking for slot money but wanted to wait until all the guys around him signed, which is what a lot of guys do.

by was385 on Jul 22, 2008 12:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Slot

His signing was delayed because he was signed for “old” slot money after the commish mandated a decrease in slot price.

by aCone419 on Jul 22, 2008 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

There’s no reason to expect us to land a ML ready college guy who wants a ML contract. Such players are snatched up before the Braves current slot of 10th, and we should actually finish better than that assuming we don’t trade Tex as our pythag record will even out and we may even add some reinforcements.

The idea we’ll have to spend big bucks is spurious as well. Here’s a list of bonuses from 2007 based on draft slot. We’ll have our own pick which should fall between 5-15, another first rounder somewhere (we’ll assume between 11-20), and two supplemental picks which we’ll assume are between 31-40 and 41-50 (that’s if Ohman is even worth a B tag).

5-15 $2.22 million
11-20 $1.534 million
31-40 $0.829 million
41-50 $0.707 million
Total $5.29 million

Even if we hit the highest bonuses found within those groups we’d only be paying something like $9.9 million (5th – $6 million, 11th – $1.9 million, 31st – $1 million, 44th – $1 million). And that’s factoring in Matt Wieters who was BA’s #1 prospect in the draft, fell because of bonus demands, and got the highest bonus in draft history to that point; ie, factoring him out, the next highest bonus within that range was $2.15 million resulting in a high end estimate of $6.05 million for four picks. The Braves can certainly afford that for four of the top 50 players in the draft.

The next “market inefficiency” (to steal an overused term) in baseball is the draft, specifically guys who fall do to bonus demands. The value of giving them that extra $500,000 over slot is literally nothing compared to the value of controlling six years of their talent.

Case in point is Jacob Thompson who we drafted in the 5th round this year. He was one of the best pitchers in the country based on two years of work in college, but fell because of a ho-hum junior season. He’s a guy with a plus slider, two other average pitches, and plus command who dominated for two years and dominated last summer. He just struggled with command this spring. The Braves could sign him, have a great chance of working out the kinks with our reputation with young pitchers, and suddenly have basically a free first round draft pick on our hands. We just need to pony up the $1 million or less to sign him.

by 17843 on Jul 22, 2008 3:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

2 Extra Draft Picks

Regarding the 2 extra draft picks; the Braves might not even get a 1st rounder for Tex if someone like the Orioles sign him. There is a rule in place that protects bottom-teams (think its teams picking 1-15) from losing there 1st round pick even if signing a Type-A player like Tex. Braves could end up with a couple sandwich picks and a 2nd rounder for Tex.

by buzz_spackler on Jul 22, 2008 10:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs