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Trading Possibilities

Albert Einstein said that the definition of insanity is doing the samething over and over and expecting different results. That's exactly why the Braves need to make changes. They need to trade for something. They need to trade for the future and to win-now at the sametime. Here's a few trades that hopefully make sense. I'll start with the biggest and best.

1. Last year, the Marlins and Tigers matched up for a blockbuster 6-for-2 deal. It cost the Tigers one top position prospect, one top pitching prospect, one major league ready backup catcher/borderline starter, one fireball reliever, one low-level pitching prospect, and one older projectable pitching prospect. The Marlins gave up one of the best young hitters in the game with a middle-to-top of the rotation starter. I believe the Braves have those prospects and then some to complete a trade of that caliber and recieve a great hitter and another starter in return.

The Braves need to model a package after that trade and trade for Jason Bay and Ian Snell of the Pirates. It would likely cost us something along the lines of Jordan Schafer, Tommy Hanson, Clint Sammons, Manny Acosta, Kris Medlen, and Todd Redmond. Probably would either need to replace with a higher prospect or tack on another player. We'd obviously be giving up a lot, but so would the Pirates.

Jason Bay is a huge piece that the Braves sorely need on offense. He's a right hander that walks a lot, decent average, and hits for power. He's signed through this year and next rather cheaply. He'd probably be a lot easier to resign than Teixeira and more willing to sign an extension early. The Braves will have the money, could use a right-hander to bat cleanup between Chipper and Mac, and need the consistency. Gaining Bay would also make losing Teixeira a lot more tolerable.

Ian Snell is a little bit trickier. He's had a bit of a down year but aside from a few blowout starts, he's been pretty good. He has top of the rotation stuff and is signed cheaply through 2011. I think he just needs a change of scenery to be honest with you. The Braves have tried to trade for him in the past but with no luck. His down year might make him more available, but at the sametime could make him not available, so they can sell higher later. However, if they include him, it would give the Braves a solid rotation for many years headlined by Hudson, Jurrjens, Snell, and Jo-Jo. Since they are young and under contract for awhile, it makes a lot of the Braves starting depth in the minors blocked and expendable.

Schafer would obviously be tough to part with, but with Bay and Francoeur cemented in the outfield for awhile, that leaves only one spot. With Gorkys Hernandez quickly developing right behind Schafer, it makes one of them available. One of the best parts of this trade is that they don't have to part with Jason Heyward, who I believe is truly "untouchable."

Outcome for the Braves: So, for the sake of argument, let's say the trade goes through. Bay obviously replaces the Blanco/Diaz platoon. Blanco is the more attractive fourth outfielder and we could potentially keep Diaz as a last-resort filler for Teixeira at first next year. Maybe shifting him to first would be wise given his current knee problems. There's a lot of options they can do with Diaz if they make the trade. Snell would replace Morton, allowing him to develop in the minors more.

Longshot possibility: The Braves could tack on even more prospects and make it a 8-3 deal, asking the Pirates to include top firstbase prospect Steven Pearce. It would give the Braves their firstbaseman of the future, allowing the Braves to trade or allow Teixeira to leave. We could let Teixeira and Ohman leave for the draft picks, helping replenish what the Braves gave up.

The Braves would be giving up a ton, but at the sametime wouldn't kill their minor league system, wouldn't need to use its depth for trades again for awhile, and would improve the Braves. We'd probably have to add something like Lillibridge and Charlie Morton. Lillibridge-Morton-Hanson-Schafer-Sammons-Acosta-Medlen-Redmond for Bay-Snell-Pearce. But with the immediate production, higher chances of making the playoffs, low contracts, draft picks at the end of the year, and making Teixeira leaving tolerable, it wouldn't be that bad of a trade.

2. Mark Teixeira for Kevin Youkillis and Craig Hansen of the Red Sox. The Red Sox reportedly turned this trade down. I don't think it wasn't that they didn't want to do it, it just wasn't the right time for them. The Red Sox would probably want to see how David Ortiz heals before making a trade. It'll probably be one of those last-minute trades if it does happen since the Braves are also waiting on what to do with Teixeira.

Outcome for the Braves: It would decrease their production for rest of the year, but it give them a solid first baseman for the future and a potential closer.

Longshot possibility: The Braves could add Ohman to the deal, but the Braves would probably want an additional two players since Ohman has the possibility of being a type A free agent making it a 4-2 deal.

3. Mark Teixeira and Will Ohman for Casey Kotchman and Nick Adenhart of the Angels. Not exactly the greatest first baseman, but Kotchman is serviceable, under contract, and Major League ready. Adenhart could be very good in the future and probably better than anything we'd get in the draft. It might not help the Braves win this year, but we can't exactly expect that to happen when you trade off Mark Teixeira and Will Ohman anyways.

Outcome for the Braves: It solves the firstbase problem and gives the Braves a great pitching prospect. It also saves them some money for any potential signings in the future.

0 recs | Comment 27 comments

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no way

we part with Hanson. He and Heyward are probably the only untouchable prospects at this time. Schafer could eventually be moved if the organization thinks that Gorkys could be the CF of the future.

by BlueVol03 on Jul 19, 2008 5:08 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

you want to trade hanson AND schafer? and MORE? for jason bay and ian snell?

...REALLY??

by bigjoe on Jul 19, 2008 5:44 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It’s modeled after a previous trade. I love Hanson just as much as anyone, but I don’t get the super untouchable status a lot of people have with him. He’s good, yes, but it’s debatable if he’s even the Braves best pitching prospect. Schafer’s value is down after the steroid bust.

Snell hasn’t done that bad. Aside from a few starts, he’s been good. His ERA is overblown and his potential is still there.

If you guys are happy with mediocrity, fine, be happy with what the Braves have now and their performance. But I’d like a change and to pull the trigger on something drastic. So why not give up things we don’t need that are highly valuable to other clubs.

by beeniez on Jul 19, 2008 6:14 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Ian Snell isn't very good

And Jason Bay is no Cabrera. 4 or 5 years older and not the same elite bat. Then again, Schaefer is no Maybin. Bay is good, but we are giving up way too much for him to + Snell. Schaefer would need to be dealt to get Bay, but I don’t think it’s a good idea to buy. And there’s no reason to trade for Snell, especially since he’s awful this year.

Teix and Ohman for a package of Kotchman, Adenhart, and more sounds good actually, but the Angels are too stingy to pull the trigger on that kind of deal.

by VictorW on Jul 19, 2008 5:58 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Way to much to give up....

when we are still 6.5 games out and behind three teams. We are giving up a lot of future potential for an outside chance to catch the mets, marlins, & phils. As much as Bay would probably help us, I just do not see him sparking that big a rally, and the pitchers we currently have are better than Snell.

You have to remember that JoJo, Jair, & Campillo will be hitting their career highs in innings pitched soon, and may not be as good down the final stretch. So we would be giving up a lot, just for an outside shot at making it to the playoffs.

by frozen rope on Jul 19, 2008 6:39 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

we could probably get them both for less than that. As has been said jason bay is not as good as cabrera and snell is not as good as willis. If we were gonna give up those kind of prospects i would expect much more, something like a roy oswalt hunter pence package that makes more sense.

by bravesguy95 on Jul 19, 2008 7:12 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

just for the hell of it…

MIGUEL CABRERA TOP 3 B-R SIMILAR BATTERS THROUGH AGE 24
Hank Aaron
Ken Griffey Jr
Frank Robinson

JASON BAY TOP 3 B-R SIMILAR BATTERS THROUGH AGE 28
Geoff Jenkins
David Justice
Kevin Mitchell

do you see now why its insane to give up 6 prospects for him and a guy who’s most similar pitcher this season is adam eaton?

by bigjoe on Jul 19, 2008 7:38 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

But isn’t that what we did with the Teixeira deal? We gave up some of our best prospects in Salty, Andrus, Neftali Feliz (who is dominating), and others…Matt Harrison looks like a quality starter…Why make a move in desperation for now when we have an outside chance already. Why not keep the prospects and play for next year and after?

by smscardinals1 on Jul 19, 2008 7:54 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It’s a little bit of desperation, but if it doesn’t work out this year, they still are under contract a lot longer than Teixeira and Mahay with a higher chance of resigning. We could keep those prospects, but we’re going to be losing a lot of offensive production if Teixeira leaves. And how scary is it going to be next year, relying on Chipper to be healthy the entire year if Teixeira leaves? We need another solid bat past this year. Need it. If we have to overpay, I say do it – it makes too much sense. We can afford it and still have a solid minor league afterwards.

by beeniez on Jul 20, 2008 12:47 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

FA Money

We do have alot of money coming off the books if Glav and Smoltz don’t return. I think it is something like 48 or 49 million. So I think we can get someone in FA or make a trade where aren’t in desperation giving up our best pitching prospect and our most likely starting CF next year.

I just wish we would trade Tex for something of value cause we get two picks if he leaves and that is not very good to trade Salty (who is good but not great), Harrison (solid starter), Neftali Feliz (ranked behind Hanson in MILB) and others to get two 1st rd picks.

by H0SS on Jul 20, 2008 8:30 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Wow.

Every single one of those proposals is improbable… well done! Your most realistic deal is one that was already proven false. Thanks for the laugh…

Please check out my blog at http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/ , now redesigned and recommited!

by ejruiz on Jul 19, 2008 9:08 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You have a weird sense of humor.

by beeniez on Jul 20, 2008 12:17 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

really?

dontrelle willis is a “middle to top of the rotation starter”? really?

by son.of.sourman on Jul 19, 2008 11:09 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

isn’t dontrelle willis in class A right now?

by bigjoe on Jul 19, 2008 11:53 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

He is...

..and everyones giddy that he didn’t walk anyone in his last start.

Willis is done…he might be able to salvage his career at this point and maybe – maybe be a bottom of the rotation kinda guy.

by RainDelay on Jul 20, 2008 11:20 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

At the time of the trade that’s what they thought they were trading for. It’s a comparable trade, nothings an exact.

by beeniez on Jul 20, 2008 12:14 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Look, I realize it’s a lot. But that’s likely the price we’d have to pay to get what we want. We can’t trade scraps and expect high talent in return. We gave up 5 top prospects to get Mark Teixeira and Ron Mahay for a year, but Jason Bay and Ian Snell for the next couple of years is ridiculous at 6 prospects? We can afford it without giving up all of our best prospects, without giving up the prospects we truly need, and without killing our depth in any position.

Ian Snell has had a crap year, I understand that. I mentioned it in the post, you’re not telling me anything I haven’t researched. I also looked at game by game stats and he hasn’t pitched nearly as badly as his overall stats look like. He’s still young and good. Like I suggested, I think he just needs a change of scenery.

I also understand that Bay isn’t as good as Cabrera. But a Cabrera isn’t available and Bay is still a very good outfielder. Our prospects aren’t exactly as good as the ones the Tigers gave up either.

If you think I’m crazy, fine. But I modeled it after a previous blockbuster trade that went through – not some random idea I had. So if I’m crazy, so are the Tigers’ front office. It didn’t work out the way it did, but I believe everyone was praising them at the time of the trade and ready to promote them the best team in baseball. I replaced the prospects they gave up to what they roughly would be in our system.

We have good prospects, but I think most of you are severely overrating them. Schafer was busted for steroids and isn’t exactly killing it like he was last year. Hanson is good, too, but he’s struggled some this year and scouts aren’t sure how he’ll handle high-levels because of his extreme flyball tendencies. He’s still far from a sure thing. I don’t get the “untouchable” status for either, especially when receiving good, proven Major League talent in return.

by beeniez on Jul 20, 2008 12:40 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

just to let you know, we wouldn’t have bay “for a few years”. we’d have him for a year and a half, his contract expires in 09.

by bigjoe on Jul 20, 2008 12:51 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Terrible, just terrible.

by cbwilk on Jul 20, 2008 2:06 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I agree

All the trade scenarios aren’t good at all. We would be giving up way too much. Bay is good, but he isn’t a star like Tex. Ian Snell is having a down year, but again, he isn’t the answer for the pitching staff.

We need a good hitting outfielder, but I say we just wait. The Braves will be sitting pretty in a few years once Heyward and some of other minors make their way up to the Braves organization. Why mortgage the future for a possibility of making the playoffs? Trading for Bay and Snell doesn’t sound like a guarantee to me to make the playoffs, so why go there?

I say wait till the off season, we have a lot of money coming off the books. Try to resign Tex, but if he is too much try to find someone else.

by Sparhawk on Jul 20, 2008 7:09 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The Braves can’t afford to keep going with this “pay the fair amount” approach. People are outspending us in every way left and right. Prospects are not sure things. I don’t think we’d be mortgaging our future – we have plenty of prospects to spare. We can afford a big trade.

by beeniez on Jul 21, 2008 12:32 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

How do you know the Braves can afford a big trade? Teams have budgets, money they can and can’t spend. It just isn’t as simple as calling up another GM and getting a deal done. And I think a lot of people ignore this fact when we get posts like this.

by RainDelay on Jul 21, 2008 12:36 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I’m going under the assumption that Liberty Media’s promise to increase payroll wasn’t a lie. Plus, with all the money likely to be saved this upcoming offseason, they can recollect it in then. And in my opinion, I think we have a deep farm system – deep enough to pull off a large trade and not drastically hurt our future.

But you could be right though, the Braves might not have the money to get it done right now.

by beeniez on Jul 21, 2008 4:08 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

first off this may or may not be the same guy… Holty i think his name was… doesnt this sound like him, an outreagueous trade prosasol that makes no sense and is based off the faulty logic that willis and cabrera= snell and bay… no tto mention we are giving up more than the tigers did, in my estimation, the other deals are ok but we’ve already discussed them in length…

I wanted to touch on something i just discovered the other day, in my estimation the Braves will have a base salary as a team next year of around 50 or 60M, depdning on what smoltz gets for a contract, he currently has a 12M option i believe, and if we resign a couple of guys… Tex (not a chance really), or glavine… Generally the Braves spend in the neighborhood of 90M which give us around 40-30M to spend. Also, the Braves won’t need to dole out a ton of money in Arbitration because Frenchy is having an off year (to say the least)

I think we have our 1B of the future, whether it be FLowers, Freeman, Heyward, or even Cody Johnson (remember he isnt even 20 yet). so all we really need is a stop gap for one or two years at 1B. I think the most glaring thing the Braves need to do is ptiching, the rotation needs a front line starter (i don’t think Hudson is an ace, he is a low nb1 or high nbr 2 but not an ace) Sheets and Sabathia are both on the market. I think it is imperative that the Braves make a serious run at one of those two. Theres no way i want to spend 20M but if we can get one of them for around 15-17M a year for maybe 5-6 years, i say go for it.

But back to the 1B situation, like i said we need a stopgap. Here is a short list of the guys that are FA to be this offseason… Ben Broussard, Sean Casey, Eric Hinske, and Doug Mientkiewicz. If we can sign Eric Hinske I think that should be our top guy to get. HE isn’t just a flash in the pan hitter, his ops is around 860 this year i believe, he can play the OF and 1B, he is a former ROY (not that that means a lot, but it helps my case so im gunna bring it up). Sean Casey and Doug Mientkiewicz are both very solid defensive 1B, and both are avg hitters. Sean Casey is an exceptional hitter in my opinion, if it weren’t for his lack of power. I think all of these guys can be signed for around 5-7M.

If both of these signings can occur, a 1B, and a front end starter we can compete next year, and I’ve only spent half of our proposed cap room. This next part could get a little scary if the first part wasnt already. I propose we sign Pat Burrell, hopefully to a 1-2 year deal. we slot Burrel in behind Chipper and our offense is no worse than it is this year. Casey Blake is another possibility. We could even sign Blake as our 1B, but i’m currently addressing our OF, so Iver put him here. Adam Dunn is also a FA, and he could be thrown in the mix.

I know a lot of these guys have their defincies, Sheets (injuries), Sabathia (afinity to sausages and beer, at least recently), the 1B considered to be avg or slightly above avg, Burrell and Dunn tend to swing and miss a fair amount. But besides sheets and Sabathia we are only looking for a year maybe two out of the guys. Worst case we are no worse than we are this year, best case we have Hinske, whose production is hgiher than any OF we have, Blake same thing, and our Rotation now looks quite menacing, with Hudson Jurrjens and Sheets/Sabathia.

I just stumbled across the proposed 2009 FA and this is how i came to this idea, i may be whacked out of my head (it wouldnt be the first time), but i think this makes sense. Does anyone else agree? Beard feel free to back me up or shoot me down with the stats

"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."

by Swo12bv on Jul 20, 2008 8:34 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I am not Holty. This is the only name I’ve ever had. I have also mentioned many times in this thread that I do not think that Jason Bay and Ian Snell are the same as Cabrera and Willis.

I have explained my reasoning behind the trade plenty of times, to which none of you have disproved. So far I’ve gotten a few “you’re crazy’s,” a few “We’re not giving up Hanson or Schafer,” and a few “Ian Snell and Jason Bay are not the same as Cabrera and Willis.” Let me tell you, you guys would be amazing lawyers/debaters.

I also find it very ironic that in the same post that bashes me for overpaying you talk about free agency. Since the Braves have all this money to spend, it’ll be okay to spend it. So, if the Braves have all these prospects to spare, why not trade them? We have several star prospects. Let’s sell high and get proven Major League talent that could really help us.

None of you have gotten my point. We can afford to overpay if we drastically need something. We drastically need something. You know who usually ends up signing the star players in free agency? The teams that are willing to overpay. The Atlanta Braves can afford to overpay – in money this year in free agency and in prospects – for the things that they need.

CC Sabathia, Ben Sheets, and Pat Burrell are not going to sign for the going rate of what they should be worth. They are going to sign to the highest bidder – and usually for a star player on the open market, they’ll be overpaid because a team will deem it doable. Not “Is this overpaying or not,” but “Can we afford this?” And I might be going out on a limb here, but I’m pretty sure Pat Burrell will be able to find a deal for more than 1-2 years – unless you want to… overpay him.

by beeniez on Jul 21, 2008 12:26 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Here's a question

Let’s say for a moment that Tex gets traded. Assuming we don’t get a 1B back in the deal, and with Thorman gone for the Olympics, who plays first? Do we use someone to play out the string (Norton, possibly Diaz) or give a youngster a shot?

by VegasAces on Jul 21, 2008 1:35 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Trade Targeting

I wouldn’t have a problem with the Braves going after Bay if he is signed through next year (However, I thought he was a free agent after this year). The logic of why to acquire him makes sense. However, I don’t want Snell. He isn’t better then what the Braves are putting out there.

Plus I also think the Braves need to be targeting near major league or MLB offensive players. They actually have a good deal of pitching depth. With the decline of franceuor and the holes in CF and LF it is the offense that has really been the problem.

If we trade Tex I like the idea of the Angels. For one it makes the Angels a completely different offensive team. Vlad would get a lot more pitches to hit while in front of Tex. By putting Tex in their #4 slot you move Hunter to #5 which makes their line up much better.
For the Braves I think you look at getting Kotchman, pitcher and something else. I am not sure if that something else would be Rivera to play LF or some other bat but I think that we again need to be targeting offensive players if for no other reason then to plug some temporary holes.

by calbers on Jul 21, 2008 2:03 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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