The Odds are Against the Braves
by gondeee on Jul 11, 2008 9:35 AM EDT
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PrintI was slumming around ESPN and looking at the standings -- of course it didn't put me in a good mood. Two of the stat areas that ESPN has on their standings page are the percentage chance of winning the division and the wild card. Here are the Braves chances as of this morning:
Chance of winning the division: 6.8%
Chance of winning the wild card: 4.1%
And just to rub it in they combine those numbers into a team's chance to make the playoffs:
Braves chance of making the playoffs: 10.9%
So we've got a 1 in 10 chance of making the post-season at this point in the season -- that's pretty pitiful. It also goes to show you that the chances of making the playoffs reside almost exclusively within the Braves' own division. With the moves that Chicago and Milwaukee made recently the wild card seems tougher to reach than the Eastern division lead. Even though no one in the East has really run away with the lead, the Phillies are still playing good baseball (6-and-4 in their last 10 games) and the Mets are starting to make a charge (8-and-2 in their last 10 games). Compare that with the way the Braves have been playing (3-and-7 in their last 10 games) and our odds of making the post-season have been getting worse instead of better.
This weekend series in San Diego may answer most of our questions. If we can't come away with two wins, then we will likely be closer to the bottom of the division than the top, and a possible sell-off may be inevitable. Our chances don't look too good, as we throw three rookie starting pitchers at the Padres verses their defending Cy Young pitcher, a rookie with a 3.08 ERA, and the Wolf-pack.
On the wheel of decision it may be time to lean towards the Red:
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When it comes to baseball...
my lot in life is not to be realistic or logical, it’s to be hopeful. Never give up! Go Braves!
What happens, happens
At this point of the season, I stopped watching the standings. If we win, the benefits will come along just fine and dandy. If we lose, they don’t. And when you’re at a Braves game, at least to me, the rest of the league doesn’t even exist. I used to watch scores on the out-of-town scoreboard, see how the Nationals and Angels were doing each corresponding night, but now, I couldn’t even tell you how far back the Nats are, and how many games up the Halos are.
No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.
Let's remember
That as awful as it is to see our beloved team lose, it’s still better than that awful day in September/October when the season is over for us. I’m always depressed when that happens but then I try to enjoy the postseason and WS. Then it’s depressing again with no BB until Spring…so let’s enjoy!
Unfortunately
“That day” is either September 21 (vs. Mets) as the last home game. Or September 28, once again, versus the F(@)$(ing Astros, in Houston. Why do we always have to end out with Houston? That’s three straight years!
No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.
Tex to the Angels
If we are going to sell, and I am not sure I want to yet, I’d send him tot he Angels for Casey Kotchman, Nick Adenhart and Jordan Walden. There is our first baseman for next year and two potential starters in 2010. Heck, Adenhart could get in there next season.
Pray tell how Casey Kotchman is a desirable first baseman? We’re better off pulling two platoon guys off the scrap heap and hoping they can put up a .800 OPS with marginally above average defense rather than wasting a spot in a trade on Kotchman.
Yeah, I remembered last year he had a pretty solid year with the bat. His .372 OBP was something I liked even though he doesn’t have the power you want from a corner infielder. At the time I thought he was a decent player.
Of course this year the power that he doesn’t really have is down even more, not to mention his less than stellar .330 OBP. His split stats are interesting as well, as he has not shown any sort of consistency in them during his young career. Last year against LHers his OPS was .775 with a .852 OPS against RHers. This year his OPS against LHers is .927 but .706 against RHers. There’s still plenty of time for him to turn that around I guess.
And as you said his defense is only slightly above average.
I'm gettin' out of this town alive...even if it kills me.
by Smoltz's Beard on Jul 11, 2008 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions
/flagged as facial hair
"You never know what I'm going to do..."
- Michael Vick (Palm Beach Post 11/6/2005)
Haha...
...something is seriously wrong with me. I saw your comment and almost immediately went to looks up stats to counter your statement. You win, good sir.
I'm gettin' out of this town alive...even if it kills me.
by Smoltz's Beard on Jul 11, 2008 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Understandable
He really hasn’t shown much power in the bigs. And a case could be made that we are just as good if we put Kelly Johnson at first base and sign a second baseman in the offseason(Orlando Hudson?). But keep in mind that Kotchman is 25 and probably hasn’t reached his power peak. I believe he put up some solid numbers last season. All in all I would much rather have James Loney, but they can’t offer minor league pitchers with as much potential as Adenhart and Walden. Braves need to get a couple pitchers back as well as a first baseman. It is difficult to watch Neftali Feliz rip up the minor leagues.
The dodgers have as much young pitching as anyone in the game. They have Kershaw, Meloan, and others. They wouldnt however trade Loeny, and a pitching prospect with that kind of upside for Tex. Neither would the Angels for that matter. Kotchman and Adenhart wouldnt happen, let alone throw in Walden.
True, but....
Kershaw wouldn’t be in the discussion, Meloan isn’t as highly regarded as Adenhart or Walden. Why wouldn’t Kotchman and Adenhart happen? What do you expect to get for Tex, a couple of B level prospects? They are going to be getting a lot more than some Braves fans think. If they deal the guy, and they will if they are out of it, it’ll be something along the lines of Kotchman and Adenhart. I wouldn’t be shocked at all.
The Angels have never, and I underline that word, Never have been a team to go out and throw around a lot of prospects to upgrade their Major league team. There management has come out several times already to say that they are content with the team they have. To me that doesnt sound like lets go trade away our top pitching prospect and young 1B in a blockbuster deal.
Adenhart is a top 10 pitching prospect in the game. May not be on the level of Kershaw, but he is on the next tier.
What's the problem with Soriano?
The dude recently went home to the Dominican Republic to deal with ‘personal issues’, he threw a side session and said he’s not ready, and didn’t he even warm up before a game a few weeks ago only to tell Bobby he wouldn’t be able to pitch that night? Sounds kooky. And then today, Dave at the AJC throws this out, “and the possible return of closer Rafael Soriano from his perplexing elbow issues,”...it just sounds strange, and Dave’s kind of sarcastic attitude makes me think he’s in on the Braves not being happy about Soriano.
No insight, just observation.
I have been wondering about him too. They have run several tests each time he goes down and havent found anything to be structurally wrong. Not saying he is fakin’ just adding to the perplexity (word?)
Phantom pain
See: Barry Zito, John Patterson, among others
Injuries and pain that are present, no matter how many different doctors’ opinions are acquired.
No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.
Hmm...
I read DOB’s blog today. In fact, I’m a frequent reader. That comment didn’t come off as sarcastic too me. DOB will go there if he feels like going there. I think royhobbs pretty much nailed it down with his comment below.
"You never know what I'm going to do..."
- Michael Vick (Palm Beach Post 11/6/2005)
The Angels
And them being reluctant to trade prospects for a power bat has cost them in the post season 2 out of the last three years. They’d be fools not to trade for a power bat with the current state of their starting pitching. Adding Tex to that roster would make them a legit threat. I don’t think they are one right now. Red Sox would embarrass them if they met in the playoffs.
They may not trade prospects
But they sure like to (or at least used to) dangle Ervin Santana out as trade bait.
No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.
I feel like you might know...
...but I caught an Angels game on HD the other night when Ervin was pitching. I noticed what looked like horrible scars on his arm…but only on one arm. You have any idea what that was about? I figured it was from a monkey knife fight or something.
I'm gettin' out of this town alive...even if it kills me.
by Smoltz's Beard on Jul 11, 2008 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions
I’d love to get Ervin Santana, but that isn’t happening.
Sooner or later, they have to trade prospects. I mean, how long can they continue to get by with great pitching and a mediocre offensive unit. It is a punchless offense. Tex in the middle of that order makes them world series favorites in my mind. Wouldn’t you trade from a strength(starting pitching) for such an upgrade(Kotchman over Tex). I know it’s only 2 months, but you have to go for it sooner or later.
Of course, I am a Braves fan and I want the best deal possible for my team. Kotchman, Adenhart and Walden is an excellent package.
Well see that is the thing. I am sure that their fans would love to see them go for it and add Tex. I am sure that braves fans wouldnt mind a deal to the Angels if we fall far enough behind to warrant that. But the Angels management has shown time and time again that they dont operate that way. Prospects are like Gold to them.
For that matter the Dodgers are fairly similar. They have too many prospects that are ready, or about to break through and not enough places to play them.
When that happens you have players like Wood, and Laroche who just widdle away and dont get their shot til it is too late.
The Loney package hands down. I Dont know much about McDonald, but i really like Meloan, i saw him pitch a lot when he was a youngster in A ball. That and the fact that Loney is just leaps and bounds ahead of Kotchman if you ask me. Loney can pick it, and he has like .320 potential with the bat. Not tons of pop, but solid.
Also as a side note. I live in Salt Lake City where the Angels AAA team plays. Adenhart has looked pretty dominant at times, but he walks too many people. That is what killed him in his very short stint in the Majors. If he straightens that out he could be pretty darn good.
Baseball America Mid Season top 25
Anyone have a subscription that can let us know where Heyward Ranks if he is ranked
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