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"Impact, not stats."

What, are you all working or something?

Star-divide

Pujols is it quiet here today - it's slow over at my place of work, and I've got two more hours to kill before I can bolt.  So, something I thought would spark some debate, the subject line:

"Impact, not stats."

Said by the most intelligent man at SI.com, Jon Heyman, about how Curt Schilling is a lock HOF'er, despite having not-quite Dickhead, Greg Maddux, or even Mike Mussina-like numbers.  BUT, he has a debatable bloody sock, and gave us one of the most dramatic, memorable playoff runs in the history of our game, as well as having pretty good numbers in his own respect.

What do you guys think?

This FanPost does not express the views or opinions of Talking Chop.

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Without looking at the stats...

My initial gut instinct would say ‘Yes’. I’ve thought of him in a similar boat as John Smoltz, actually. While I think Smoltz is a slightly better pitcher, they both had that big game mentality. Both had problems staying healthy, but despite these problems managed to put up a great career.

Looking at the stats…now.

First impression: could use more W’s, but a great K/BB ratio, hugely dominant seasons with a spattering of injury plagued ones. So I’d still stand by my ‘yes’.

A slightly unrelated note: Schilling closed for a while in 2005? Sheesh, I don’t remember that at ALL.

by Something Profound on Jun 23, 2008 3:54 PM EDT reply actions  

ABSOLUTELY NOT!!!!

I had this debate with my friend, a die-hard Cardinals man, and it was very very fun to actually think about HOF criteria. I think that the ultimate criteria is that they must DOMINATE baseball throughout their career. Schilling did not do this. Smoltz, who some people think isnt even a lock, dominated saving and starting, with a great post season career. Schilling had some memorable moments, but certainly not a dynasty-esque run, definitely not dominant his entire career, and didnt even have such a great career ERA.

I think Schilling was an amazing pitcher in modern baseball. HOFer? I dont think so. Maybe 5th, 6th ballot, if we find out that that sock was actually bloody, and not painted. J/k. But i dont think if Smoltz isnt a lock, that Schilling could even be considered.

by traphicg on Jun 23, 2008 4:08 PM EDT reply actions  

Whether or not it's a problem...

HOF selection is still a subjective process. Whether Schilling is worthy or not, I think he’ll have a harder time getting in than Smoltz will, even more so if Smoltz, Maddux, and Glavine all call it quits at the end of this season, making them all simultaneously eligible in 2014. The novelty of having the three of them enter together is too great for the panelists to not let happen, I think.

But back to Schilling, if he did make it, who’s hat would he wear? He’s won a title with Arizona, where he probably achieved his best notoriety. But then he won two titles with Boston, where he made history. Team swapping is something that HOF panelists claim to not like, but Maddux has done his fair share – but it would be hard to deny someone with 350 wins, no matter what.

I can’t say that I’ve given much thought to HOF credentials/criteria until I posed this question. Clearly, Cooperstown has its integrity to hold onto, and they don’t want to let just anyone in – Schilling’s stats are good, but not great – only looking at the bottom line, one might see numbers that a good pitcher should have after a career as long as he did, but might not see that he’s had several 20+ win seasons, and several other injury-plagued ones. Stats alone, I’d be reluctant to say that Schilling is worthy – impact-wise, Schilling has pitched some big games, and left his markings all over October. Hard for me to say…

No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.

by royhobbs on Jun 23, 2008 4:26 PM EDT reply actions  

Christ...

...well, I had a long response all typed out and the page refreshed somehow and lost it all. First, I love how Smoltz was considered a borderline HOF pitcher up until basically this season…but when the first hint of Schilling’s retirement hits the air he’s a lock. He’ll probably get in, but in no way should it be first-ballot.

I hate the bloody sock bullshit, and can’t stand when people get entry into the hall because of a famous moment in baseball history. My boys over at FireJoeMorgan.com feel the same way, and I’ve linked a couple writeups from them on the same subject. The first two are breakdowns of Heyman’s HOF list this past December.

Jack and Bert and a Hallway Where Famous People Go
Ugh
The Hall of Oh Buh-rother
This is Going to be Annoying

Those should keep you busy, Roy.

by Smoltz's Beard on Jun 23, 2008 4:28 PM EDT reply actions  

+1 for calling the bloody sock bullshit. I can’t agree more.

I understand the guy was hurt and pitched great in the WS while hurt, but every pro-athlete plays hurt (sans Mike Hampton.) I’m not sure if I really get what makes someone who plays hurt, albeit well, deserves to be in the Hall. Schilling has pitched well, but by no means has he dominated.

This brings to mind a discussion I had with some friends of mine recently concerning Tom Glavine. There was a disagreement to whether Glavine should be a first ballot hall-of-famer or not . . . I lean towards yes, merely because he was probably the best LH pitcher during the majority of his career, if not of all time. Though, a couple of my friends disagreed with me. Anyone else see a correlation between Schill and Glav?

by JDMaker1 on Jun 23, 2008 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

In a nutshell, comparing the two

Glavine, yes.
Schilling, no.

First balloting, that is. Glavine enjoyed regular season success, post-season success, achieved the holy grail of 300 wins, two Cy Youngs, four Silver Sluggers, physical durability, and was never as big of a douchebag that Schilling can be.

Schilling enjoyed some regular season success, lots of post-season success, has 200 wins, 3,000 Ks, zero Gold Gloves, zero Cy Youngs, questionable durability as age caught up to him, mouthed off to the media, mouthed off in the locker room, mouthed off on the internet, and became more annoying as his stuff deteriorated.

I bring up the awards and such, because to me, those are symbolic of them having “it” that makes them worthy of them, and not just falling in the rear like all the runner-ups do.

No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.

by royhobbs on Jun 23, 2008 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

Just FYI

I added the bloody sock in the intro as sarcasm – I thought it was cool at first, but the more I learned about Schilling, the less I started to care about it. A little over-dramatic, and whether it’s real blood or not, felt very staged. There’s no denying the drama it created, though.

No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.

by royhobbs on Jun 23, 2008 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

Bottom line

With all these interesting articles – HOF balloting is subjective, and will always have people who agree, and people who disagree.

Good stuff though, interesting reads.

No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.

by royhobbs on Jun 23, 2008 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

BTW

I love how they dog on Jon Heyman. That alone is worth the reading material.

No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.

by royhobbs on Jun 23, 2008 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

Indeed…Heyman tries so hard to cherry pick the appropriate stats to help his cause. Well, not counting the last two seasons of Jack Morris’s career… Are you fucking serious? This guy has a job at SI and that’s his line of thinking? I actually wrote him an email once telling him how wrong he was in one of his articles and he wrote back with the typical well, I was there and you weren’t line. Smarmy douche.

My favorite line in the 2nd link I posted above is the following:

3. Andre Dawson. On ravaged knees, he made eight All-Star teams, hit 438 home runs, drove home 1,591 runs, won eight Gold Gloves and finished in the top two in MVP voting three times, winning for the last-place Cubs in 1987.

I don’t understand why Dawson supporters always cite his “ravaged knees” as a like thing that makes his numbers be better than they are. “He had bad knees! He gets bonus points!” You wouldn’t say about Tony Gwynn: “The guy hit .320 every year—and he was fat!” The Hawk had bad knees. That happens to athletes sometimes. Lou Gehrig had fucking ALS and he was still better than basically everyone else.

Despite the fact that The Hawk had bad knees - which is immaterial - he was a very very good baseball player. A baseball player who made crazy amounts of outs (evidenced by his career .323 OBP). The Gold Gloves are essentially pointless, the MVP voting is suspect at best, and his career numbers just don’t stack up. Sorry. I loved the guy. I watched a lot of Cubs games on WGN and he was super fun to watch hit. But look at his career, man.

by Smoltz's Beard on Jun 23, 2008 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

I've called out his articles several times

Here are his responses, verbatim – yes, seriously. The subject matter for these responses isn’t quite necessary, sadly.

i like what you had to say and you have a cool email address, but why are the words all on the left side of the page? thanks, jh
they did have bullpen problems last year indeed. thanks, jh
you are one of many in atlanta who disagreed. your argument was sounder than most others though. sorry i am late to respond. thanks, jh

I seriously wonder, who he/his wife/his sister/his mother/someone associated with him had to sleep with for him to get that gig.

No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.

by royhobbs on Jun 23, 2008 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’m mostly surprised that he takes the time to write back, even if his answers border on…well, for lack of a better word, dumb. Especially the first one, that kills me,

by VegasAces on Jun 23, 2008 6:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

And apparently

he has no shift key.

"Have you ever had your heart broken?"
"Yeah, when we lost the pennant in '87."

by jug on Jun 24, 2008 12:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

And apparently

he has no shift key.

"Have you ever had your heart broken?"
"Yeah, when we lost the pennant in '87."

by jug on Jun 24, 2008 12:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

Honestly

At first, I thought it was cool that he actually responded, but given the stupidity an droll effort he puts into it, I wish he’d be like every other sports writer and just not respond. Or put me in their mailbag, and make me feel proud of myself for 22 seconds…it happened once, but it was for that weird bouncy-ball sport that Argentina won a gold medal at a few years ago.

No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.

by royhobbs on Jun 24, 2008 9:01 AM EDT up reply actions  

Actually

I meant basketball. I wrote to a writer who said “the Lakers are fighting for the 3 seed, so they can avoid the dangerous Grizzlies or Clippers in the first round of the playoff.” Based on the fact that I pretty much gave up on the NBA after their 1999 strike, most my my knowledge of the league was from between 1990-1998, when both the Clippers and Grizzlies were the laughing stocks of the league. Seeing that quote prompted me to write in a one-liner: “never did I think I would see those words being in print in my entire life.”

Don Banks actually thought it was funny, and posted it in his mailbag. And then, made a George Mason cinderella-story reference.

No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.

by royhobbs on Jun 24, 2008 9:28 AM EDT up reply actions  

That’s the thing though…the numbers cannot be subjective. You can twist them to fit your arguement, but they don’t lie.

by Smoltz's Beard on Jun 23, 2008 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not going to disagree with that

That’s the good thing about them – cold, hard, emotionless, un-subjective facts.

John Donovan’s on the committee right? In theory, if the once-mentioned-not-worth-mentioning-again scenario occurs, and in 2014, Donovan receives a ballot, you think he’s going to fill in those three names based on his obvious Braves fandom first, or the numbers?

No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.

by royhobbs on Jun 23, 2008 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Agreed. The articles are completely subjective. That’s why they all get paid.

When I was younger I’d read and watch everything I possibly could about baseball. I’d listen to these analysts tell me what was right and what was wrong, who was good and who was bad, and I’d believe them. But as I’ve grown up I’ve realized that they aren’t always right…and sometimes they’re just flat out wrong. That’s why I love the FJM guys…they provide factual evidence of why these talking heads are just flat out wrong.

by Smoltz's Beard on Jun 23, 2008 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

No stats.

I’m not going to look at any stats to provide my opinion, since that is sort of the point here. Based on my fuzzy and somewhat fragmented memory, Schilling has been a big name pitcher that was decent and then a bloody sock later and he’s a legend. So, does 200 wins + 3,000 Ks and pitching in some big games for some pretty good teams make you a hall of famer? It is a good question. I think he is not a HoFer. I don’t know if the analysts agree or not.

I think that it isn’t fair to compare Smoltz to Schilling, because Smoltz has a Cy Young, has 150+ SVs and 200+ Ws (never done before) 3,000+Ks and a boat-load of post-season wins (still the most, I can’t remember?). And that is just the main things off the top of my head. Not only that, find somebody that doesn’t like John Smoltz as a teammate or a man. How far does that go? I say it has weight. But Smoltz, in my opinion, has to be a lock.

Also, Maddux goes in wearing an A on his hat? There is no question, right?

"Have you ever had your heart broken?"
"Yeah, when we lost the pennant in '87."

by jug on Jun 24, 2008 1:01 AM EDT reply actions  

Maddux

You’re right…no question.

I did hear a rumor once that Estrada and Smoltz didn’t get along, but that was one of those third-hand stories, so I don’t put much stock in it. However, I do find it curious that a catcher with as much hitting ability as Estrada keeps bouncing from team to team.

by VegasAces on Jun 24, 2008 8:36 AM EDT up reply actions  

From what i understand

Estrada is the problem, not Smoltz (if that wasnt already assumed)... He traded from the Braves, then traded fromt eh Dbacks, then the Brewers basically gave him up because he didnt get along with the Brewers ptiching staff (yes pretty much the entire staff from what i understand)

by Swo12bv on Jun 26, 2008 12:06 AM EDT up reply actions  

Apparently

I posed this question at the same time in which every single sports outlet wanted to make the same debate. It was funny, after the whipping last night, SS had this “special” on the 2004 Boston Red Sox, which all the Boston writers like Shaunessey were circle-jerking while reminiscing of the 04 squad, including Schilling’s bloody sock.

There should be a fair compromise between highlights, memories, and statistics, I’m leaning towards saying is my final say on the decision process. Schilling’s definitely got the highlights and memories made, but his statistics indicate almost a journeyman, who if not for some untimely late-career injuries, would be a whole lot closer/at 300 wins than he is now.

If it makes anyone feel any better, I don’t consider Jamie Moyer HOF material either, and that guy is in the top-five active wins. But he doesn’t “pop” in memory or highlights, and has won no statistical achievement awards.

Smoltz still tops the list at 15 post season wins. Glavine and Pettitte are right on his heels though. Smoltz’s HOF yay has to do with the fact that he enjoyed regular season success, post season success, has a Cy Young (more impressive because he was on the team with Glavine and Maddux), constantly defying media expectations with his return(s) from injury, bullpen, rotation, 200+ wins, 150+ saves, 3,000+ strikeouts. Isn’t there a Silver Slugger in there as well? Smoltz’s credentials far outweigh Schilling’s, but he’s not really in question anymore, like Schilling is now.

Maddux’s hat is a toss-up. He enjoyed lots of statistical success with the Cubs, but really made his mark in Atlanta, including his lone ring. I’m leaning towards the A, but may not be too shocked if it turns out to be a C.

No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.

by royhobbs on Jun 24, 2008 9:12 AM EDT up reply actions  

It’s pretty clear that Schilling is a hall of famer. Not first ballot by any measure, but he has the statistical record to support induction and anyone who thinks differently is simply not looking at the right stats.

Points in favor of inclusion:
1. Playoff preformance
- In 133.1 IP, a 2.23 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 8.1 K/9, and a team record of 10-2 in series he appears in.

2. Rate stats
- Career 3.46 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 8.6 K/9. One of the best K/BB rates EVER of 4.38/1. Tenth best ERA+ among active players (tied with Smoltz).

Points against:
1. Counting stats
- “only” 216 wins. But remember he pitched for a winning team once prior to 2000. He racked up three 20 win season pitching for good D’Backs and Red Sox teams and was probably cost a couple playing for horrible Phillies teams.

And was a reliever for his first 116 MLB games and then again for 2/3rds of 2005, costing him probably ~25 wins.

Pedro has 211 wins. He’s a first ballot lock.

2. Not “dominant”
- Schilling certainly wasn’t the most dominating pitcher of his era, but who really is in Johnson, Maddux, Pedro, and Clemens’ league? He measures up favorably to Glavine, Smoltz, and Mussina. Being the sixth or seventh best starter in baseball over a 15 year period is certainly hall worthy.

ERA/ERA+
Glavine – 3.53/118
Smoltz – 3.26/127
Schilling – 3.46/127
Mussina – 3.71/122

WHIP
Glavine – 1.31
Smoltz – 1.17
Schilling – 1.14
Mussina – 1.19

K/9
Glavine – 5.3
Smoltz – 8.0
Schilling – 8.6
Mussina – 7.1

Second best ERA, tied for best ERA+, best WHIP, best K/9 out of a group that includes one supposed lock (Glavine), one pretty sure thing (Smoltz), and the other guy who’s supposedly on the brink.

He’s discounted only because of his rate stats and lack of hardware, which is largely saying the same thing because of how tied together wins and Cy Young votes are, and because he chose to have his three best seasons alongside Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez’s best seasons.

by 17843 on Jun 25, 2008 6:26 PM EDT reply actions  

Good stuff. However, you should know better than most on here that the voters could care less about the fact he played for a poor Phillies team. They’ll look at his wins, and it’ll be a demerit. Comparing his win total to Pedro’s is pointless as Pedro is has better rate stats than Schilling, and held perhaps the most dominant pitching stretch in history…posting an ERA+ of over 200 five times from 1997-2003 (other two years were 163 and 189).

by Smoltz's Beard on Jun 26, 2008 9:21 AM EDT up reply actions  

Sure. I think we could both agree that the massive majority of hall voters wouldn’t even understand why Schilling would lose wins from pitching on bad teams.

by 17843 on Jun 27, 2008 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

I have two things on this

First off what is the deal with not being a first ballot (im not trying to call one out here its just i problem i’ve always had with the HOF), i understand why we give guys more than one chance because its impossible to not compare classes and thus a guy who may be a HOF when compared to a class with 3 or 4 great players can get left off. but i have never heard anyone say “he’s in the HOF yeah, but it was on his 4th ballot.” once your in it doesn’t matter, you a hall of famer. so whats the point of keeping someone from getting in on their first ballot if you think they are a HOFer.

Second, I think we should distinguish something, because i feel a lot of people may feel the same way as i do. I think there should almost be two halls. A HOF and then like VIP HOF or something (we can work on the name later). I think the Hall should be reserved for the best of the best. and this is not true of the hall in its current state. Im not saying we should set standards but, the Hall should include 3000 hit guys, 500 HR guys, pitchers with 300 wins (of course we would have to alter some of these stats due to the current status of the game). But guys like LUis Aparicio and Bruce Sutter are not guys that jump out to me as a Hall of Famer. Under the conditions i set forth i would even find it hard to let Smoltz in, because 50 years from now will we be talking about Smoltz, like we talk about Bob Gibson or Walter Johnson. Of course we can’t have this Hall because the hall is already established.

Now to the question is Shilling a Hall of Famer? Do i think he will be? no doubt whatsoever. Moments can get you into the hall of fame, ask bill mazorowski (this statement was plagiarized from ESPN, i believe). Forget the bloody, sock the next time they show highlights form the 2001 WS, Shilling was nearly unhittable and the only reason he had only one win was because of the lack of run support. If i was in charge of the Hall, Id be kicking people out and not letting SHilling in. but alas its not up to me and the Hall is full of guys with a lower talent level then id like. Not to say these guys are bums , they are all very good players, even great but when I think of the Hall i think it should be a select few, for example should Billy Williams’ plaque really be next to the best hitter of all-time Ted Williams. I sure dont think so.

by Swo12bv on Jun 26, 2008 12:24 AM EDT reply actions  

ok so im a bad counter that was three things

by Swo12bv on Jun 26, 2008 12:25 AM EDT up reply actions  

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