Tex costing us come off-season?

by ghost of tom thobe on Jun 17, 2008 12:39 PM EDT Comment 15 comments

After last night's 0-5 4k performance, I started wondering about Tex's season stats, particular in relation to his free agency class this off-season. Could he be possibly be headed towards an Andruw-esque dive from Class A free agent to Class B? I took a look at the stats to find out. According to here, the highest Elias ranked class B players last year for outfielders and first basemen were Eric Byrnes and Frenchy (of all people). Here is how some of their stats from the last two years compares to Tex's of last year and his projected final numbers for this year:

	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SLG	BA
Byrnes	1188	329	67	11	47	168	0.471	0.277
Frenchy	1293	357	64	6	48	208	0.446	0.277

Tex '07	494	151	33	2	30	105	0.562	0.306
Tex PJ '08	617	167	35	0	23	114	0.439	0.271
Tex Total	1111	318	68	2	53	219	0.494	0.286

Now I'm assuming that the rankings probably take in other factors (defense? if so, him and Frency are comparable; probably other stats like BBs, Ks, and runs), but I don't think Tex is greater than those two in any of the other categories, save for walks. So far, Tex's stats are slightly better than those two, but the rankings are always relative (so better seasons by 1B/OF players could make the cutoff higher). Still, it's pretty close, and if Tex struggles in the second half, we could miss out on a first round bonus pick.

I definitely think that Tex is worth more than a supplemental pick, so trading him is not an option. We have no other first basemen. And I do believe he will pick it up soon and end up with better stats (23 HR? really?). But it's surprising how his struggles have dropped him to a comparable level with Eric Byrnes.

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Comparable?

I don’t think they’re comparable at all. Besides, that projection almost certainly doesn’t factor in the fact that he historically does his best hitting in the second half. If you had to chose between those three lines (include defense, if you like) would you even hesitate before taking the last one???

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by ejruiz on Jun 17, 2008 1:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re:

Well I would easily pick Tex over those two. I do feel that defense is a wash between Tex and Frenchy. My point is that if Tex continues to struggle (and his struggles have never extended into May before, let alone June—April is now long gone) it is possible that he could fall into Class B status and we would fall a round in the supplemental draft pick. It’s not a huge deal, but it’s a little thing that goes unnotice in his struggles.

by ghost of tom thobe on Jun 17, 2008 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nope, not comparable

Francoeur’s OPS+ (100 = average)
2006 87 (13% below average)
2007 103
(2008 92)

Mark Teixeira
2007 150 (50% above average)
2008 113

True, OPS+ is probably not what they use to rank players (although it would definitely be the easiest way). But I’m sure they look at OBP and SLG at least, and Tex destroys Byrnes and Francoeur at OBP.

He will NOT fall to Class B. And if he does, it IS a huge deal, for two reasons.
1) he’d have to be terrible for the rest of this year… I think you’re forgetting how terrible Andruw was last year at everything but silly counting stats (OPS+ of 88, bailed out by drawing some walks)
2) first round draft picks are extremely valuable assets

by zwillis on Jun 17, 2008 7:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah...

King Felix is deemed untouchable and with an interim GM in place now – there’s no way.

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by RainDelay on Jun 18, 2008 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

damn it, wrong place to reply.

Revisit the Braves World Championship Year, all Season!

You can also check out my stuff at Baseball Digest Daily

by RainDelay on Jun 18, 2008 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well

I doubt that he would fall to Class B status BUT if he did I say do away with the stupid Class A and Class B status on players. I mean I know that Andruw had a bad year last year but he still won a gold glove and still had about 24 homers and a good bit of RBI’s so he STILL deserved Class A status especially when the dude had OVER 300 homers in his career and was only 29-31 years old when he was a free agent. (I dont know how old he is and I really dont care to look it up). We really got screwed there. And I like Glavine as much as the next guy but Glavine is was NOT a type A guy. I mean I know he had ALOT of Quality starts but he was not the same Glavine as he was when he left Atlanta to go to the Mets 5 years ago. I still would have given up the First round pick to sign him, so I have no regrets about that. Im just sayin that this Class A and Class B players are a bunch of crap. It screwed us twice already. Maybe if Andruw was considered a Class A player we MIGHT have offered him arbitration(and again we might not have) but I do think eventually that they will do away with the Class A and Class B crap.

braves#1

by rockybull on Jun 17, 2008 3:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Slow Starter...

Flashbacks of Andruw’s 5K night last year popped into my head as I was watching Tex’s performance last night! Sure, Tex was incredible last year, but this year he’s really been disappointing. I know everyone says he’s a slow starter, he gets hot in the second half, on and on, but the thing is that the games don’t wait. We’re playing games now! For a guy that’s looking for like 10 years/$200 million or something outrageous like that, he better figure it out and figure it out quick!

I was a big Tex fan at the beginning of the season, but I can’t say that now. I mean, he’s great when he’s hot, but I’ve seen him strand waaay too many runners this season to think that he’s worth what he’s asking. I can’t help but think what one hit at the right time would have done in so many of our one-run losses.

Of course, he’ll probably heat up here, hopefully before the break, and some shortsighted team (like, um, Hank Steinbrenner for instance…) will drool over those numbers and dump a bunch of cash on him. If this kind of a start is what we’ll have to put up with, I just hope it’s not us.

by skipcaray on Jun 17, 2008 3:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Tex

The thing is that with the way other teams like the Yankees like to throw money at guys like him, maybe we could get alot for him if we traded him this year. I know it won’t happen, but the Braves need to decide if they are going to really try to sign him in the off-season or now. If not then we need to trade him. It’s a golden opportunity to get some starting pitching.

One more thought. Seattle has fired their GM which means they are about to start their fire sale. Felix Hernandez is pitching pretty good with a 2.81 ERA and has thrown only 2 less innings than Tim Hudson. His record is only 5-5, but he has had several games where he only gave up 2 runs and still didn’t get the win. This would be a guy that could get us back in the race. Maybe they would take Reyes and Kotsay for him. If anybody knows anything about his contract and if it would allow him to fit into our plans let me know.

by bravesooner10 on Jun 17, 2008 4:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs