NL Postseason Odd from Baseball Prospectus:

1) Chicago Cubs – 93.1%
2) Philadelphia Phillies – 73.7%
3) Arizona Diamondbacks – 72.0%
4) St. Louis Cardinals – 43.1%
5) Atlanta Braves – 28.7%
7) Milawaukee Brewers – 17.5%

The current division leaders are extremely likely to remain atop their respective heaps, but the Wild Card is still up for grabs and we’re very much in the mix. If we start playing up to our aggregate performance thus far (or, even better, to our true potential) we could certainly sneak into the playoff and make a run therein. There’s still a lot of baseball yet to be played and we still have a solid team, so there’s no reason to give up hope just yet.

I haven’t posted in a while, but when I saw this post I thought I should chime in. With all the bad luck and injuries, I think we should be very happy at where we are currently sitting (still in striking distance of both the division and wild card). I imagine our luck can’t get much worse than it has been so far this year, and if you couple that with the fact that we seem to be gaining confidence, then I think we can make a run at the playoffs. I think we have a very good shot to get back in this race and probably sooner rather than later.

The reason I say “sooner rather than later” is because if you look at the schedules leading up to the All-Star break, we have an advantage and a good opportunity to gain quite a few games on the Phillies because their schedule is much more difficult than ours. We also play a series against them at home where we can hopefully pick up a few games. Here is a list of the teams that the Braves and Phillies have series with leading up to the All-Star break:

BRAVES SCHEDULE
@Texas 35-36
Seattle 24-46
Milwaukee 36-33
@Toronto 35-36
Philly 42-30
Houston 33-37
@Dodgers 31-38
@San Diego 31-40

PHILLIES SCHEDULE
Boston 44-29
Angels 42-29
@Oakland 38-31
@Texas 35-36
@Atlanta 35-36
Mets 34-35
Cardinals 42-29
Arizona 37-33

If you break this down it means 6 of the 8 teams we play are below .500, on the other hand 5 of the 8 teams that the Phillies play are above .500 and this includes 3 division leaders and a wild card leader.

These schedules favor us, and hopefully we can play well and make a run in the next few weeks. Also, if we can get close by the All-Star break we may be seeing Tom Glavine and Mike Hampton return which would almost be like making a trade at the All-Star break with the shot in the arm that it could provide the club, of course this will depend on if Mike Hampton can avoid getting an ingrown toenail that somehow gets infected and would require surgery.

Anyways, to make a long story short, I think if we can stave off these injuries a little longer, continue to gain confidence and get timely hitting, then we should definitely be able to get back in this race and make the playoffs.

At least we’re in better shape than them.

But it’s not about the Braves so much as the Phillies and the Mets.

I can’t imagine that the Mets aren’t cooked.

The Phillies have been extremely hot and will probably lead the league in runs. But their rotation (esp. Kendrick and Eaton) is still a huge weakness. The only major difference from last year’s team is Lidge (although that is a significant difference). Rollins is coming back to earth a bit. They’re good but not unbeatable. They do have some pretty good mojo.

Also, a whole lot depends on Gonzalez. A lot more than I had hoped for a few weeks ago when the reports were, “The Braves are going to add Soriano, Smoltz, and Gonzalez at the same time!!!!” I was hoping for 2/3. Now I’m praying for 1/3.