Optimal Lineup

by jgraham on May 5, 2008 2:20 PM EDT

Bobby Cox seems to be changing the lineup pretty often. I know a lot of that has to do with injuries, but I started to wonder which lineup would give the Braves the best chance to win.

Thankfully there are some brilliant people at Baseball Musings to help me out with just that. They have a lineup analysis tool that allows you to look at a number of possible lineups and the expected runs/game based on the starters' OBP and SLG. I entered several variations - current stats, three-year performance, etc. - and came to some interesting conclusions, which you will see below.

One point, however, repeated itself in every test: the pitcher needs to bat 8th. I started by putting the OBP and SLG at .200 (appr. Tim Hudson's numbers) but then changed the OBP to .180 and the SLG to .150 - no shift in the lineup. Maybe Tony LaRussa isn't as crazy as we all thought. On to the lineups...

Current Stats w/o Platoon

Escobar
Jones
Teixeira
McCann
Kotsay
Francoeur
Johnson
Pitcher
Blanco

This lineup will score 5.761 runs/game. That's 933 runs for an entire season, which would be phenomenal. Of course, that requires Chipper to remain the best hitter, oh, ever. Maybe we should take a more realistic approach...

Three-Year Stats w/o Platoon

Escobar
Jones
Johnson
Teixeira
Diaz
Francoeur
McCann
Pitcher
Kotsay

This lineup only scores 5.536 runs/game. Also, as you've probably noticed, I threw Diaz back in there only because Blanco's a rookie and didn't think it was fair to balance 56 PAs against the thousands for everyone else.

I could keep going, but the possibilities are endless. Current stats against lefties, three-year stats in May, on and on and on. What do you think? Vote below and tell me why in the comments.

Poll

Should Bobby Cox bat the pitcher 8th?

0 recs | Comment 9 comments

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Comments

Our pitchers have what, 3 hits on the year? Why move them up in the order?

by bigjoe on May 5, 2008 6:34 PM EDT 0 recs

The math adds up. The lost production of an extra 15 PA’s a year given to the pitcher is made up for by the additional guys on base for the best hitters at the top of the lineup.

by 17843 on May 6, 2008 1:31 PM EDT up 0 recs

interesting toy. i entered each player’s 3 year splits against righties and lefties to get optimal lineups against a pitcher:

vs. lefties (5.47 runs/game):
yunel
tex
kotsay
francoeur
diaz
mccann
chipper
pitcher
kelly

vs. righties (5.48 runs/game):
chipper
mccann
yunel
tex
kelly
francoeur
kotsay
pitcher
diaz

some of this doesn’t make sense to me – for example, why wouldn’t you switch kotsay and chipper in the order against lefties? kotsay is .312/.401 and chipper is .342/.490 (OBP/SLG over the past 3 years). fun to think about though, and your point about pitchers batting 8th still stands. from what i recall, the productivity boost comes from where the pitcher bats in succeeding trips through the lineup. if i recall correctly, batting the pitcher 8th can increase a team’s run total by 3-4 a year.

by mnash408 on May 6, 2008 12:43 PM EDT 0 recs

Another thing: you don’t hit Chipper in the 2-hole. Just no. I know he gets on base a lot, but so do Kelly & Yunel. Chipper’s got a higher average than Kelly. Wouldn’t you rather have 2 on for Chipper, who gets hits more often, than 2 on for Kelly, who walks more often?

by bigjoe on May 6, 2008 1:02 PM EDT 0 recs

Because...

......as stated in the book Moneyball, written by Billy Beane according to Joe Morgan, the most important thing a hitter can do is not get out. It makes sense why you would hit Chipper 2nd, or even 1st, because he probably has the best chance to not make an out and continue to turn the lineup over.

What is going to score you more runs…having a 1.000 OBP in an inning, or having a 1.000 SLG in an inning?

Hits are way too fickle…what one scorekeeper counts as a hit, another one may count as an error. An error still serves its purpose in the course of the game, the runner gets on base without getting out, but it’s one of the reasons why batting average is a stupid measure of a player’s worth.

by Smoltz's Beard on May 6, 2008 1:26 PM EDT up 0 recs

Well in Chipper's case...

You also need to think about his hitting temperament. As we learned when Sheffield was on the team he hates hitting anywhere but 3. His career numbers bear that out as well.

Lifetime in the 3 hole:

.315 AVG .408 OBP .559 SLG .967 OPS

Lifetime in the 4 hole:

.297 AVG .400 OBP .528 SLG .928 OPS

Obviously he has a much larger sample size in the 3 hole, 6200 PAs vs. 2000 PAs in the 4 spot, but there is a certain truth to hitters behaving better in different spots in the lineup. It’s mostly just a mental thing and their behavior depending on what they think is expected from that spot, but I’ll provide a stark example in the form of Jose Lopez 2B for the Mariners.

Lifetime in the 8 spot, 411 PAs:

.237 AVG .275 OBP .324 SLG .598 OPS

Lifetime in the 2 spot, 613 PAs:

.286 AVG .312 OBP .411 SLG .722 OPS

If we assume that players will behave differently in different spots in the order, it makes less sense to just arbitrarily swap them out. Granted it may not actually end up happening, but I’d pretty much let Chipper do whatever he wanted at this point and he obviously wants to hit in the 3 spot in the order.

by Perrinbar on May 6, 2008 3:49 PM EDT up 0 recs

Good stuff...

...I appreciate your research. The difference in OPS is so minimal in Chipper’s case that it doesn’t really even need to be brought up. Certainly considering he has 1/3 less ABs in the cleanup spot. While I do think that the whole “hitting temperament” theory does exist, I think it has less effect on players like Chipper who are prone to talking walks.

And yes, as you stated, I would let him hit anywhere he wants.

by Smoltz's Beard on May 6, 2008 4:25 PM EDT up 0 recs

Yeah, I think with Chipper his comfort would be my first concern

And those numbers are fairly similar, plus there are a myriad of other things to consider depending on where you move chipper, most noticeably who hits behind him. In general I think it is an interesting exercise and I would love to see Bobby think out of the box like Yost has and move the pitcher to the 8 spot. Chipper is probably going to keep hitting 3rd though, out of preference and because general baseball thinking is that it is where a hitter of his type should be. Would he be better in the 2 spot? It’d certainly be interesting to see it, plus getting him more ABs is a plus no matter how you slice it, especially when you look at his career numbers based on the number of ABs vs a pitcher in the game.

First time facing a SP:
.292 AVG .395 OBP .502 SLG
2nd time:
.315 AVG .403 OBP .573 SLG
3rd+ time:
.321 AVG .400 OBP .600 SLG

If we could get him into that third category more often it would be a good good thing.

by Perrinbar on May 6, 2008 6:04 PM EDT up 0 recs