Braves to win division?

by JDMaker1 on May 30, 2008 9:53 AM EDT Comment 17 comments

According to Jason Stark at ESPN the Braves should win the division. Also in the article he talks about Chipper and his .420 BA, and who the Braves are going to get as their next starting pitcher. He opines that it won't be Maddux, but a younger guy more like Arroyo, Blanton, Harden, etc.

Read the artcile for yourself:

Reaching the unreachable could be possible this season

P.S.: Credit goes to Tim Dierkes at MLBTR. I was directed to the article by one of his posts .

P.P.S.: Sorry for the multiple fanpost, but I'm a little bored at work this morning and scouring the internet.

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Good stuff.

I havn’t been to MLBTR in a long time. That was my go-to site during the offseason.

by Smoltz's Beard on May 30, 2008 11:04 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I read it a few times a day.

by FineHamAbounds on May 30, 2008 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

First Site I Check.

I have a regular rotation when I head online and MLBTR is the first. Great site, if you ask me. I do stay away from the comments most of the time, though.

Please check out my blog at http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/ , now redesigned and recommited!

by ejruiz on May 30, 2008 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, I have MLBTR in my Google Reader list that I check every day. I never bother reading the comments, but I like to see what Dierkes has to say. He does a great job with fantasy stuff at RotoAuthority as well.

Speaking of MLBTR, this is another recent post I thought was interesting:

Dayn Perry has an enjoyable series at Baseball Prospectus called Mock Blockbuster. He proposes trades that would benefit both teams. His latest: Greg Maddux and Brian Giles for Jordan Schafer.

by JDMaker1 on May 30, 2008 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah. I just read that the other day, and posed a question to Perry about the platoon he proposed. He said that Giles should either play full time or platoon with Diaz…to which I asked where would Gregor go? I think at this point in the season he has earned his time in LF, especially considering his hitting LH better than Diaz is so far. He has not responded yet. Here was his quote:

That brings us to Giles. In right, Giles’ natural position, the Braves of course have Jeff Francoeur. Francoeur’s struggling badly this season, but he’s fairly entrenched. Over in left field, however, things are much more fluid. Atlanta left fielders this season have combined to “hit” .242/.305/.303, while the average NL left fielder has authored a batting line of .265/.342/.435. Mostly, that production deficit is the fault of Matt Diaz, who’s far and away been the least-productive Braves regular this season. For Giles, making the shift from right to left isn’t onerous in the least, and he’d provide a mammoth upgrade over Diaz at the plate. According to VORP, Giles has been the fifth-most productive right fielder in all of baseball this season, and since Petco came online in 2004 he’s got a cumulative batting line of .298/.399/.477 away from the game’s most extreme pitcher’s environment. Play him every day in left or platoon him with Diaz, either way Giles notably improves the Atlanta offense.

by Smoltz's Beard on May 30, 2008 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That is definitely an interesting trade. I’ve never been a huge ~~steroid~~ Brian Giles guy, but it’s hard to argue with the way he’s been hitting this year. Though wasn’t he a little sub-par last year? I don’t really follow the Padres very closely (something about the wrong coast).

I agree with you that Blanco has played his way into LF, but he’s playing a little above his head right now IMO. I’d love to see him be able to keep it up at the plate, he’s been great defensively so far.

by JDMaker1 on May 30, 2008 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The only thing that makes me nervous about Blanco, is you’re right he is playing over his head right now. I’m wondering if we’re going to see Blanco go Willie Harris on us – put up some great #’s and then fall flat back to earth.

Revisit the Braves World Championship Year, all Season!

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by RainDelay on May 30, 2008 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I thought the same thing, but his career minor league stats are pretty close to the numbers he is putting up thus far in 2008. He is playing slightly over his head though:

Minors (3199 PAs): .274/.371/.377 – .748 OPS
Majors (132 PAs): .290/.409/.374 – .783 OPS

He never will have much power (which sucks, because LF is supposed to be a power position) and his BA will certain decrease (his BABIP is .361), but he is capable of working the count and taking walks…which counts for something. I certainly don’t expect him to plummit the way Willie Harris did.

by Smoltz's Beard on May 30, 2008 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe the Willie Harris comp was a bit extreme…

Revisit the Braves World Championship Year, all Season!

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by RainDelay on May 30, 2008 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I got a decent comp thats a little more in the wayback machine. How about Tony Tarasco?

by bigjoe on May 30, 2008 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, Giles only played in 121 games last year and he doesn’t have the same power that he used to (be it steroids, or just getting old). He still takes plenty of walks, which is great (can you tell I’m an OBP freak?). But as the quote above says, he absolutely destroys when he is away from Petco. Take a look:

2008
Home – .243/.341/.369 – .710 OPs
Away – .359/.450/.489 – .939 OPS

2007
Home – .237/.345/.320 – .665 OPS
Away – .299/.374/.496 – .870 OPS

2006 (very even split this year)
Home – .263/.378/.384 – .762 OPS
Away – .264/.369/.410 – .780 OPS

2005
Home – .267/.378/.417 – .795 OPS
Away – .333/.463/.545 – 1.008 OPS

Finally, just for fun here is his career numbers at Turner Field (small sample size of 149 PAs):

.366/.477/.520 – .997 OPS (with a .408 BABIP!)

by Smoltz's Beard on May 30, 2008 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Interesting stats. What’s your take on the trade? Losing a top prospect for an old pitcher and an old outfields?

by JDMaker1 on May 30, 2008 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don’t like losing Schafer, but Wren has already made several trades this year in an effort to “win now”. What’s one more?

Of course if we don’t win the WS this year, then myself and every other Braves fan will be upset for years to come.

by Smoltz's Beard on May 31, 2008 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I have it set up in Bloglines. :)

Revisit the Braves World Championship Year, all Season!

You can also check out my stuff at Baseball Digest Daily

by RainDelay on May 30, 2008 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Arroyo has been terrible this year!

by clemsonfan on May 30, 2008 11:58 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

To Quote Stark.

clubs that have spoken with the Braves say they’re more focused on trying to find a younger starting pitcher they can hang onto for just the last few months of this season. So think more along the lines of the non-free agents who could pop onto the market (though not necessarily these names in particular)—Joe Blanton, Rich Harden, Bronson Arroyo, Daniel Cabrera, Jeremy Bonderman, etc.

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by ejruiz on May 30, 2008 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oswalt

Roy ‘Edward’ Oswalt is the ONLY GUY that will basically help are team now in the season, PLAYOFFS, AND MOST IMPORTANTLY IN THE FURTURE. Yes, Oswalt is and ACE and he’s not pitching like 1 but helps us out. ( good outing last game).
Blanton- eats lots of innings but he’s not an Ace. Plus remember that we had problems with control pitchers like Maddux and Glavine in the playoffs. He another prime example of them.
Harden- he would be my 2nd choice behind Oswalt. He’s and ACE when HEALTHY. He will probably make another trip to the DL this season. Plus he hasn’t pitched a full season since 04 i believe. So he might tire out.
Arroyo is a good pitcher but not an ACE. He has had only 1 season with an ERA under 4.
Cabrera- he’s an interesting player. He’s pitched good this year and i wouldn’t mind having him.
Bonderman or Robertson- Yeah i’ll take for a mid level prospect but i don’t want them pitching for us in a 5 GM series.
Making a move for a pitcher Wren has to think about the future for the team b/c acquiring Maddux will just give us another pitcher in the 40’s. Plus we don’t know how long Smotlz can go so its time to start getting young at the SP pitcher like Jurriens.

by braves077 on May 30, 2008 7:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs