What is going on?
by Shaggy3391
on Apr 16, 2008 11:27 PM EDT
I have moved to Cheyenne, WY. so my Braves watching has been almost nil. I even tried to go to the Thursday game against the Rockies until we were hit with snow. I am getting a little upset at all the one run losses and seeing a loss everytime I check to see the status of the game. Someone please find something to calm me down before I run to the Rockies and hibernate for the rest of the season!
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1. Bad luck – Injuries, one run games, etc. The luck should turn eventually.
2. Bullpen – Injuries to the two most effective relievers, trading the veterans.
It’s annoying when things start this bad, but the Braves being a playoff team was always going to take a solid bit of luck with all the old guys on our staff. I just hope the front office has the sense to trade off Teixeira and Hudson if we’re out of contention in July. Be nice to start the rebuilding full bore.
by 17843 on Apr 16, 2008 11:38 PM EDT 0 recs
wow...
I don’t think Hudson’s going to get traded, if only because that’d be a huge slap in the face to Smoltz, Glavine, and Chipper, and that doesn’t seem like the Braves’ style. But if the Braves are cooked in July, I’d be OK with trading Teixeira. This notion that he might get re-signed is absurd unless he fires Boras (though he wouldn’t be the first Boras client to do so recently).
I disagree with the notion that the window will close after this year. Chipper’s probably still got a couple seasons and there’s a lot of young talent still developing. If McCann, Kelly, Yunel, and Francoeur haven’t peaked, then the lineup will be good for years. We do have a lack of impact starting pitching in the minors, but there is some depth at least.
Anyway it’s just a cold patch, and it’s not like the Mets and Phillies are dusting us.
by zwillis on
Apr 17, 2008 12:08 AM EDT
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There’s a lack of starting pitching that will allow us to compete until the guys toiling in A-ball are developed. What’s clear is that after 2008 (if we stand pat) our rotation will be Smoltz (?), Hudson, Jurrjens, James, and Reyes. Now, Hudson is a pretty good bet to be reliable in 2009, but who knows what Smoltz will be worth and the other three have proven nothing so far. Add to that Teixeira is gone without a proper replacement (Thorman, Kaaihue, Canizares?), Chipper is one year older, and center field is going to be disputed by two fourth outfielders or Schafer. I see no way to compete for anything next season after subtracting Tex, Glavine, Kotsay, and aging Chipper, Smoltz, and Hudson a year.
And being concerned about how Chipper, Smoltz, and Glavine feel is plain stupid. Glavine’s gone in October and Smoltz and Chipper won’t have to play on the team in a few years. I’d prefer cashing in this season if we’re down in July and competing in 2010 then buying this rebuilding while contending crap and not contending. I mean, the going rate for a top flight starter is a building block or two. We’d be stupid to turn that down in favor of two more years of Hudson’s down slope.
by 17843 on
Apr 17, 2008 12:56 AM EDT
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Correct me if I'm wrong...
But isn’t Hudson only 32? Hell, if the offense would get on track, and if the bullpen can stabilize, Hudson has another 4 or 5 years where he can be a 20-game winner. No, he doesn’t need to go anywhere in that timeframe unless you’re talking about getting three top-shelf prospects for him.
Smoltz? I see him hanging around another year, depending on how he performs this year… which so far is looking fairly promising. As much as I hate to say it, losing Glavine means next to nothing. If we can squeeze 13 wins out of him this year, I’d say he did his job and then some. But again, his starts so far have been reminiscent of the Glavine of old, sans an inning or two per start.
As far as Tex goes… man, I’d love to keep him in town, but I feel pessimistic about our chances there. Without anyone in our farm system waiting in the wings, here’s hoping that Heyward can be made into a first baseman sometime soon.
Our future rotation? I feel pretty damned good about Jurrjens being a solid #2 starter for us, perhaps as soon as next year. I like what Reyes is doing in Richmond so far this year… it’s not outside the realm of possibility that he could be our #4 or #5 starter next year. James is all kinds of “meh.” I was really high on him two years ago, but it looks like he just isn’t gonna pan out. If we could transplant Glavine’s brain into his skull, he’d be platnium. All of this leaves a glaring hole in our rotation. BUT… once we shed Hampton’s contract, and assuming that we can’t sign Tex to a long-term deal… is it not possible that we could go get ourselves a decent pitcher in free agency?
These are just my late night ramblings as I wind down for a snooze. Can’t wait to see what Smoltz can do tomorrow evening.
by Chopaholic on
Apr 17, 2008 3:41 AM EDT
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17843
If we don’t resign Tex, our 2009 rotation would likely be Huddy, Smoltz, FA, Jurrjens and Reyes/James/Morton. You might even be able to slot that free agent ahead of Smoltz, considering the ammount of free money we’d have and the potential decline of John.
As for 1B, I think we move Diaz there and give LF to Brandon Jones. We could also move Chipper there, slide Yunel over to the hot corner and give SS to Lillibridge. There are also stopgaps likely available in free agency or via trade, plus the internal options you mentioned.
Blanco and Anderson battling it out for CF won’t be much worse than Kotsay will be this year, nor is resigning him out of the question. I doubt Schafer will be ready following his extended suspension. Beyond that, there will be plenty of stopgaps around in free agency. Moreover, we could always trade for another stopgap for the position if necessary.
None of the concerns you’ve expressed seem to be crippling blows to the major league team. The young guys will continue to improve, we’ll have tons of cash to bring in reenforcements and the farm will only get stronger. The Braves are not on the verge of collapse, I don’t think. There’s certainly cause for concern, but no reason to panic.
by ejruiz on
Apr 17, 2008 5:45 AM EDT
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I never said they were on the verge of collapse, just on the verge of no longer being capable of contending.
Here’s a list of free agents starters this offseason: (* indicates an option)
Kris Benson BAL
A.J. Burnett TOR (may opt out)
Paul Byrd CLE
Jon Garland LAA
Tom Glavine ATL
Mike Hampton * ATL
Rich Harden * OAK
Orlando Hernandez NYM
Jason Jennings TEX
Randy Johnson ARZ
John Lackey * LAA
Esteban Loaiza OAK
Braden Looper STL
Derek Lowe LAD
Pedro Martinez NYM
Matt Morris * PIT
Mike Mussina NYY
Jamie Moyer PHI
Mark Mulder * STL
Carl Pavano NYY
Brad Penny * LAD
Odalis Perez WAS
Oliver Perez NYM
Andy Pettitte NYY
Mark Prior SD
Horatio Ramirez SEA
C.C. Sabathia CLE
Ben Sheets MIL
John Smoltz * ATL
Julian Tavarez BOS
Steve Trachsel BAL
Brett Tomko KC
Claudio Vargas MIL
Woody Williams HOU
Randy Wolf SD
Not a terribly inspiring list; indeed if we’re talking about signing someone better than Smoltz we’re looking at Sabathia, Penny, and Lackey, the latter two having options. Hell, going down that list I came up with nine names that I would be willing to sign as free agents, the rest being a combination of old, injury prone, and terrible pitchers.
Garland
Byrd
Oliver Perez
Sheets
Penny
Lackey
Pettitte
Smoltz
Sabathia
If Tex is out of our league, Sabathia certainly is. Lackey and Penny have options. Pettitte won’t leave New York. We have Smoltz already. Sheets hasn’t made 30 starts since 2004. The leaves us with Paul Byrd (38 and no more than a #4 starter), Garland (not a bad option), and Oliver Perez (another good choice). Now, how fierce is the competition going to be for the above three pitchers if they’re the class of the free agent market that most teams are interested in?
And any option we have for first base (aside moving Chipper which is to brilliant to be done) will produce below league average production for a first baseman. Diaz’s offense is average for a left fielder, but below average at first base. Kaaihue is clearly not ready and won’t be next year. Thorman proved he’s not going to hit major league pitching. The only free agent that is actually starter quality is Richie Sexson.
As for center field, if we’re already deploying a stop gap at 1B, how can we afford another one in CF? Including the rotation, that’s a lot of stop gaps for a team that can supposedly contend.
My main problem with competing in 2009 is it feels like we’ve been aiming for 85 wins and hoping that’s enough the last few years. It’s obviously not enough to make the playoffs and I’d rather win 70 games in 2009 and make the playoffs going forward then watch the Braves win 80-85 games and miss the playoffs for the next five years.
by 17843 on
Apr 17, 2008 12:17 PM EDT
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Good Point.
No love for Derek Lowe, huh? I think we will have to pony up some serious cash for a good starter in free agency, but we could afford it. I’d target the following likely FA, in order: Perez, Garland, Lowe, Burnett and Sheets. I know those last two are injury risks, but we may have to gamble there. Keeping Oliver from the Mets would be doubley nice.
Honestly, I think Josh Anderson would be fine in CF in 2009 if he continues in AAA as he has so far this year. I think his floor is replacement level and his ceiling is league average, so he’d be OK. We could also move Francouer to CF, play B. Jones in RF and Diaz in LF. My point is, we have options.
Sexson would certainly be an interesting reclamation project for 1B. A platoon of sorts with Hatteberg as one half could work, too. I like Chipper there, but I’m not sure about. Again, we have options.
Maybe that team is an 85 win team, but the developement of youngsters could push it up another notch. It would certainly maintain a better foundation for the big jump in 2010 and beyond. I understand the benefits of a firesale and rebuilding, but I’m just not sold on it being necessary or even optimal.
by ejruiz on
Apr 17, 2008 2:54 PM EDT
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Health and Luck.
Someone show me a team that could make due without the three best relievers on its roster? Yeah, I didn’t think so. We’ve had a couple of extra inning games, two non-starts and a slew of others under six full innings pitched, so the bullpen has had an insane workload. Add to that some mismanagement due to over-specialization, and they’ve been torched.
The offense has been inconsistent, not only from game to game, but also from at bat to at bat. The rotation has turned in solid starts, but injuries and short outings haven’t helped.
What we need to keep in mind is that we haven’t even played 10% of our games and many of the problems are likely passing in nature. We might need to bring in a quality reliever via trade, but other than that, I think we can handle it from within. It’s tough to watch and follow, but it happens. We can hold off with judgement on these Braves for a while longer.
by ejruiz on Apr 17, 2008 5:51 AM EDT 0 recs
Who is the leader of this team? We need a captain.
It seems that every year no one is willing to step up like a Jeter or a Varitek and be the leader of this team. Let’s see who it could be, Chipper won’t do it, Smoltz could be, Glavine maybe. Bobby needs a guy who will speak up and I’m not talking rah rah just someone with the cred to get the team to play like they should.
by Fortune favors the brave(s) on Apr 17, 2008 11:05 AM EDT 0 recs
The whole captian..
..thing is way over rated by those in the east media. You don’t need a ‘captain’ to have a leader, it’s just a ridiculous notion to say the least. Someone vocal to be a leader, yea that would be nice and hell there might be – it’s just something we’re not prevvy too..
by RainDelay on
Apr 17, 2008 11:11 AM EDT
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It seems to work!
It seems to work for other teams, it couldn’t hurt and you said it yourself it would be nice.
by Fortune favors the brave(s) on
Apr 17, 2008 12:24 PM EDT
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The only reason...
...it seems to work for the Yankees (Jeter) and the Red Sox (Varitek) is because ESPN won’t shut the hell up about it, cramming it down our throats at a nauseating pace. Just because you hear it on the news certainly doesn’t make it true.
by Smoltz's Beard on
Apr 17, 2008 3:30 PM EDT
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Chipper might not do it...
But ever notice that whenever he says something, it usually breaks the national sports wire?
Whether it’s being outspoken about the 3B Gold Glove, or his brief problems with John Smoltz?
one more time ... for sting!! a sports blog written by two opinionated males
by royhobbs on
Apr 17, 2008 11:30 AM EDT
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Come on, a captain is not going to really change anything. It is not as if this team is not playing hard. They aren’t giving up. If anything, they are trying too hard—not being patient at the plate, trying to do too much on the mound, swinging for the fences and popping out. We’ve had some bad luck, injuries and our pitching hasn’t been consistent yet. None of this has anything to do with somebody wearing a “C” on their jersey or getting on to the other guys to play harder. And IMO from watching all but 1 game this season, they are playing to win up until the last out. It would be different if guys weren’t running out balls, making bad throws, not making routine plays, striking out every appearance. Generally speaking, we do all that.
by jug on
Apr 17, 2008 1:27 PM EDT
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bullpen overmanagement
Yeah the problem with Bobby having hardly anyone left except a couple LOOGYs is that he used relievers like crazy the first week and a half. He’s backed off that and shown guys like Ohman that he expects them to get more than one guy out (or, more likely, walk the guy he was brought in to face). Also Resop is my least favorite player in baseball.
Not sure where the help is going to come from in the pen though. Still, it’s a bad start but I think every other team in the division has major problems as well, especially in the bullpens, so we can recover.
by zwillis on Apr 17, 2008 12:18 PM EDT 0 recs
True...
...the one thing that is keeping from sticking my head in the oven is the fact that the division is being led by the Fish, who will not keep this up. The Mets and Phils are both treading water right now…and like some others on here have said, all it takes is a 6 game winning streak to set things straight.
by Smoltz's Beard on
Apr 17, 2008 3:35 PM EDT
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yes. and great posts. everyone is on their game!
indeed we can. we’re playing poorly. one thing that bothers me, though, is the one-run games. just killing us and a sign of deeper problems. i always used to think, ‘extra innings, you win some, you lose some’... not anymore. sad thing is that after a few years of this i don’t think we’re going to win the close ones and i feel lucky and grateful when we do, that’s just one of those intangible, gut feelings. dunno if any of you were valvano fans but he used to say that there were only two kinds of players: one who every time he took a shot you expected him to miss and was surprised when he made it, and the other every time he took a shot you expected it to go in and were surprised when it didn’t. anyway, sadly i sometimes get the swinging uphill, not so good feeling when we’re in tight games. it’s involuntary, the feeling, and i hope it changes.
by finchy on Apr 17, 2008 2:00 PM EDT 0 recs
Agreed
I have that feeling every time anyone not named yunel, or jeff come up to the plate in a big situation. I love Brian McCann, so don’t take this as discontent, but i am shocked everytime he gets a hit when we need one. And chipper i feel the same with. What the braves need right now is 2005 Andruw Jones. Remember when it seemed like we were gonna lose every game and than andruw would come up and get a huge rbi or a gam winning dinger. unfortunately 2008 andruw is not 2005 andruw (plus he’s gone) but we need someone to put the braves on their shoulders and carry us through this rough patch to start the year. ALA Manny Ramirez over in Boston, Papi is struggling, the ptiching is less than perfect and yet they are winning becuase Manny is doing everything. I think this may be where a captain steps in, and carries us. Or maybe we don’t need a captain, just Tex to start hitting(again not that i am calling out Tex, its been a total team effort to lose these games).
by Swo12bv on
Apr 17, 2008 2:30 PM EDT
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2005 Andruw...
...was unreal. Their were so many situations where I’d be watching a game thinking to myself “there’s no way in hell he’s going to do it again” and sure enough he’d do it.
by Smoltz's Beard on
Apr 17, 2008 3:33 PM EDT
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tex
actually, swo12bv, tex IS our papi or arod or manny… and i believe he will be. he needs to settle in, lock in, etc. funny, i actually like mccann up in clutch situations.
by finchy on Apr 17, 2008 3:55 PM EDT 0 recs
again agreed
I think tex is our manny, papi, arod, ray durham(giants fans, little joke sry), but he is no hitting, which is why we arent winning, along with a host of other problems. As far as McCann goes, i am cursed with living in FL, thus i do not get to watch many Braves games. From what I have on recent memory, not that hes a bad clutch hitter, i have memories of him not coming through. Or it could just be that i have some kind of mental prejudice again
by Swo12bv on Apr 17, 2008 8:05 PM EDT 0 recs
3 words.
Horrid. Fucking. Luck. Seriously, 1-7 in one run games? Thats UNHEARD of
by bigjoe on Apr 17, 2008 9:28 PM EDT 0 recs
ah yes
The one Mets win was 3-1, I thought it was 3-2. EVEN BETTER!!!
by bigjoe on
Apr 17, 2008 10:51 PM EDT
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exactly big joe
but that’s what i mean. that ain’t all bad luck. 0-7 in close ones means something is very wrong. it really blows, actually. that’s a terrible statistic. and swo12bv, it’s funny how a few bad memories of someone when you just happen to be watching clouds so much. sometimes francoeur is that guy for me. to others he’s very clutch (well, maybe not very!)
by finchy on Apr 18, 2008 11:46 AM EDT 0 recs
the cure
clearly the braves players have been signing on and reading our comments, if no one noticed, Chipper decided he is gonna carry the team for a little but, we are getting some good pitching and Chipper is gonna hit two home runs a game for a while.
and to address finchy, i completely agree, everyone has their players they think are always coming through, its a confirmation bias. and for me its jeff, i could be wrong, ill admit i have the slightest clue whats going on.
by Swo12bv on Apr 18, 2008 11:32 PM EDT 0 recs
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