I re-read my comment and it comes across all wrong. I apologize for that. I'm glad you agree with me on the Upton/Francouer Comp. I get the point of making these for the sake of argument and the poll indicates that the community is torn on this topic, so while it baffles me that it would be so, it's clear that it's worth the debate. I also wanted to thank you for the Minor League Update series; well done with that!

So, as a 19 year old getting his first look at the majors after under 400 AB in High-A and AA combined (he never even bothered with AAA) he struggled. Before his promotion, he posted the following numbers in the minors that same year .319/.406/.551 with 18 HR, 70 RBI, 75 R, 19 SB in 385 AB. Those "slash" stats blow anything Francouer has ever done outside of Rookie Ball (and even then he pretty much matches him) out of the water. For comparisons sake, Jeff put up the following numbers in A-ball as a 19 year old: .281/.325/.445 with 14 HR, 68 RBI, 78 R and 14 SB in 524 AB. So it took him 139 more AB to match Justin's counting stats, underlying the inefficiency of the "slash" stats. To be fair, that was Francouer's worst full season in the minors, but age matters.

For context, Justin Upton was taken #1 overall, without much doubt, in the 2005 draft that included: Alex Gordon, Jeff Clement, Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Braun, Troy Tulowitzki, Cameron Maybin, Jay Bruce, Jacoby Ellsbury, Colby Rasmus, Jed Lowrie, Yunel Escobar and Taylor Teagarden. Like many of those guys, he has a superstar ceiling and a solid starter floor (barring extreme circumstances), making him a likely star. Francouer, the 23rd pick of the 2002 draft, has been a league-average RF since his outlier rookie splash; he is a solid starter with star potential, but like many toolsy former-football playing types, I believe he is highly unlikely to develope into anything much more.

Francouer is solid and, don't get me wrong, I like him as a player; I hope he proves me wrong. That said, I'd trade him for Justin Upton in a heartbeat and everyone should, too. The simple fact that the D'backs would laugh Wren off the phone if he proposed this straight up swap is telling. As I've said before, I doubt adding our top two prospects to the package would make that much of a difference. No offense, but this comparison is not even close.

If you're banking on "your own two eyes", how in the world do you know that he's " certainly above average"? Do you really watch that much baseball, that you have adequately assessed all of the league's RF and ranked Francouer among them? I also see that you can chose your own set of arbitrary stats that matter; can't I at least do the same? This debate about scouts versus stats is over and it's clear that you need both to succeed; we're not corrupting the game any more than you are blindly obstructing its progress. Grow up!

P.S.: Your acceptable projection for Francoeur makes him the next Joe Carter (with a better AVG). I think that's fitting, because he's another guy who who got more credit than he was due.

Uptopn's just more valuable and frankly the better player/prospect. Frenchy's solid, but Justin's spectacular.

Francouer: .280/.319/.463 with 62 HR (153 XBH), 253 RBI, 208 R and 9 SB in 1550 AB
Andruw: .260/.331/.484 with 80 HR (188 XBH), 257 RBI, 257 R and 74 SB in 1679 AB
Francouer (adjusted): .280/.319/.463 with 67 HR (166 XBH), 274 RBI, 225 R and 10 SB in 1679 AB

I just wanted to look at the numbers at the beginning of their respective careers and, once I did that, I thought I’d share them. Once again, you have to consider that Andruw had about 200 AB above High-A before breaking into the majors as a 19 year old. Remember, Francouer was struggling with A-ball at that age and wouldn’t make it to the majors for another two seasons. Sure, Andruw wasn’t the second coming of Willie Mays we all thought he could be, but he was a star major leaguer until last year. Though people remember the 2005-2006 power surge, his best season was actually 2000 and he’s only had two 400+ AB seasons with an OPS under .836 in his entire career. Moreover, the offensive expectations at CF are much lower than those of RF.

Andruw gets a bad rap because of unmet expectations and an unfavorable last impression. If Francouer matches Andruw from here on out, he’d be stepping up HUGE. If Upton turns out to be Andruw, it may be a disappointment compared to the hype, but even stars like Jones are rare enough. I know this all jives with what you said, but I thought it was worth expressing fully.