Community Projection: Rafael Soriano

by gondeee on Feb 25, 2008 10:39 AM EST in Community Projections

Out scary looking closer may bring the scary into the ninth inning this year, or he could be the best thing since number 29 toed the ninth inning rubber. We really don't know which Rafael Soriano will show up for the balance of the year.

There's the Soriano who was rather pedestrian in June and July, giving up homeruns by the handful and posting ERAs over 4.00. Then there's the Soriano who dominated while filling in for Wickman in May, and dominated again when taking over for Wickman in late August and September. He brandished an ERA in May of 0.77, and an even better 0.69 in September.

Could it be that he relishes the pressure of the ninth inning so much that he has to be in that situation to really get motivated to pitch well? Could it just be coincidence that he didn't pitch as good in a setup role as he did as a closer? Again, we really don't know (and the guy's so scary looking that everyone's afraid to ask him).

I'm going to side on the side of Soriano being a guy who lives for the pressure of the ninth inning. Here is my rose-colored projection of his 2008 season:

39 saves in 43 chances with a 2.65 ERA and 71 SO in 64 IP

As "the man" this year, he'll get into a rhythm in the closer's role and at times he will be automatic in the ninth (much like he was the last two months of last season). I think he'll go through a shaky patch or two, but he's more experience now, he's got solid employment and a contract for the next two years, so there's nothing to distract him from being the badass we all know he can be.

0 recs | Comment 16 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

me too

I also predict a year of scary badass-ness

BRAVES

by RehabReject on Feb 25, 2008 12:24 PM EST 0 recs

Close 'em out!

Soriano is going to be all smiles by the end of this year. He's actually someone to close who A) isnt 300 pounds, and B) isnt named Dan Kolb (or farnsworth as long as we're on topic)...

Like I say in nearly every post, i'm optimistic. However, Seeing Soriano during last season gives me hope. When things were going well, and Wicky was basically on top of his game, Rafi would set them up like no other. Same thing when he was the official closer. It was during that lapse, that lull, in the dog days of summer, when Wicky was transitioning from adequate to liable, and Soriano seemed to want to pick up everybody's slack. Rocker Gonzales was out, Wicky was a loser, and it seemd like he just wanted to be the best, and get these fast outs. Challenging with the ol' heater gets old, and he was shellacked a handful of times.

But, to wrap it up with some plagarizing, Rafi, confident in his role, contract, and abilities, pulls off a little sumpin' like this:

34 out of 38 saves, 2.20 ERA, 59 SO....

That was a totally random line, as i cant factor in all 64 wins from Huddy and Smoltz.....

by traphicg on Feb 25, 2008 2:09 PM EST 0 recs

you forgot

that he isn't chris reitsma or jorge sosa

http://www.baseballbrett13.blogspot.com

by baseballbrett13 on Mar 2, 2008 10:22 AM EST up 0 recs

Hmmm

Wasn't Farnsworth pretty good for us?

And these community projections are borderline absurd. According to Gondee, no Brave will suffer a down year, and the over/under on wins should be about 110.

As for Soriano, if he's going to "hit a rough patch or two" like you claim, wouldn't his ERA be a bit higher? Think about Smoltz in '03, he had literally one bad game, and it skewed his ERA completely, pushed it above 3.00, in fact. So I believe that Soriano isn't an elite closer, his tendency to give up the occasional long ball should push his stats into this range:

38 of 44 saves. 3.65 ERA, 81 SO in 85 IP

and I think the team would be pretty happy with that output, all things considered. Once Gonzo comes back midseason, the guys pitching in front of him will be much better.

by quazz66 on Feb 25, 2008 2:35 PM EST 0 recs

40+ saves

Barring injury, I think it's pretty obvious that Rafael Soriano will rack up a lot of saves in 2008. I suspect Soriano will save at least 40 games for the Braves. He certainly has the stuff for the closer role, and he will get plenty of opportunities.

The question is, how many saves will he blow? I ask this question because Soriano gave up a lot of HRs in 2007 by challenging hitters with fast balls in the middle of the strike zone. Between June 15 and August 11, 2007, Soriano coughed up 9 HRs in 24 innings. After that, he made some adjustments and surrendered only one more HR the rest of the season. From August 11 to September 25, Soriano's ERA decreased from 3.93 to 3.00.

So which version of Soriano will we see in 2008? It's a very important question, because the 2008 East Division pennant race is likely to be decided in a key stretch from Friday, September 12 to Wednesday, September 24, when the Braves play six games against the Mets and six against the Phillies. Some of those games will be close, and Soriano will have to be at his best.

Braves fan since 1958.

by Messenger on Feb 25, 2008 3:42 PM EST 0 recs

optimism

so according to all of your projections so far the braves are gonna be an all star team with the exception of kotsay

by gobraves95 on Feb 25, 2008 4:14 PM EST 0 recs

Exactly

So what's wrong with believing the best from the team you're pulling for? Would it not be 'absurd' to predict the worst? I think all these players have the potential to do the things we hope they'll do. I also think we're all realistic enough to know it ain't likely to happen (all stars at every spot), but I'm also glad to know we have a team of very talented players where it's not out of the question that several - even many- of them could have great seasons. But who knows? If we all start predicting down years for our boys, then why bother watching the games at all? Just root for the Yanks! Of course somebody will stink it up, but who? We'll know these things in due course, but until then....

Soriano: 41/46 saves, 2.15 ERA, 135 Ks

Braves make the series, win it in 6, have the CY young award winner, the MVP, and Rookie of the Year. It's spring!

I will agree that Kotsay's not an all star....

by secondbass on Feb 25, 2008 5:05 PM EST up 0 recs

How to make the all star team

Making the all star team obviously requires more than stats. There is a certain amount of popularity contest to the all star selection process. But I think it is reasonable to suggest that Teixeira, Escobar, Chipper, Francoeur, McCann, Smoltz, Hudson, and Soriano could have legitimate shots at being 2008 all stars if they avoid major injuries and play up to their demonstrated capabilities.

Braves fan since 1958.

by Messenger on Feb 26, 2008 6:39 AM EST up 0 recs

and...

his next projections have Chuck James winning 17 games and starting the all star game. And don't forget Jo-Jo Reyes winning 23 games, as well as the NFL Punt Pass and Kick competition.

by quazz66 on Feb 25, 2008 4:40 PM EST 0 recs

amazin' avenue

you guys can go talk smack about how the Braves arent going to be all stars on the Mets blog.

by traphicg on Feb 25, 2008 5:43 PM EST 0 recs

braves

i was never talking smack... i think the braves have a great shot at the east this year...especially because everyone is wrapped up in the mets and phillies i think the braves are going to suprise a lot of people... but lets not set our expectations to high to only be dissappointed... and i hope the rookie of the year talk is a joke because we wont have any rookies playing unless there is an injury or a huge underachievment by someone...

by gobraves95 on Feb 25, 2008 6:05 PM EST 0 recs

Ah, you never know....

by secondbass on Feb 25, 2008 6:15 PM EST up 0 recs

Soriano

Soriano gave up 12 homers in 72 IP last year... but he's only gonna blow 4 save opportunities? I just don't see it. I think he'll do okay in the closer role, but not that good. I'd guess 70 IP, maybe 36 of 44 in save opps. And that should be good enough, so I'm not down on him.

by mbatl on Feb 25, 2008 7:12 PM EST 0 recs

Makes sense

That sounds about right.

Braves fan since 1958.

by Messenger on Feb 26, 2008 6:36 AM EST up 0 recs

nothing wrong with being optimistic

but i think 30+ saves is a little beyond it. with the offense the braves supposedly have, i think they will win more games that are not save opportunities, than they will saved games.

i'm personally predicting, barring any injury perhaps anywhere from 26 saves out of maybe 32 opportunities, and something i haven't seen any predictions of is an overall record, which i'll toss in as something like 4-2, which means the offense will bail him out of a BS and deliver him a win a couple of times. he does like to challenge guys a little too much for my own comfort with the 98 mph heater down the middle, and i forsee him giving up a couple of key longballs in the middle of the year.

furthermore, the mentality of knowing that he is the closer might shave a little bit of the adrenaline off him; and we all know how much guys like soriano and gonzalez seem to need that rush. when wickman was on the dl for sucking last year, and soriano was the interim closer, his stuff was sizzling, but his control suffered a little bit. it was during that time, that i actually saw his heater creep up to 100, even on the ted's finicky gun - naturally, my thought was the adrenaline; but the question is, can he be that way knowing that he is "the man" now?

by royhobbs on Feb 26, 2008 1:50 PM EST 0 recs

Good point about the offense

Soriano is a closer. Closers are crazy and totally unpredictable. That being sad this team is built on offense (I wish the days of the big 3 were back). The Bravos seem to have bad luck when it comes to a closer except Smoltzy...which he is just a badass.

25/32 3.95 ERA

Doesn't matter b/c the Braves average 6 runs/game.

by Chester Highwater on Feb 26, 2008 3:36 PM EST 0 recs