Community Projection: Matt Diaz
The community projections are back (mainly as filler until games start, but we do need to round out the rest of the players expected to make the opening day roster). First up is Matt Diaz, a Magellan in the outfield. Bobby Cox recently alluded to the fact that Diaz could certainly be an everyday player on Bobby's team. Well, I'll see it when I believe it. Until then he's likely relegated to a platoon roll with young up-and-comer Brandon Jones (though, spring is a tough beast to tame, and Jones could stumble, leaving Diaz alone in left).
The real question we should be asking ourselves is "why shouldn't Matt Diaz be an everyday player?" The guy has only gotten better each of the last two years as he's received more playing time. A .338 average in 135 games is a pretty rare thing. Add to that the fact that he hits right-handers almost as good as he hits left-handers, and he's more than just a platoon player. His .318 batting average last year against right-handers is certainly more than any of other candidates we have are expected to put up. The only knock on him when facing right-handers is that his patience and power decrease dramatically, but that could be remedied by more frequent reps against them which comes with increased playing time.
We will have to wait and see what Brandon Jones does this spring to know if he will make the team in a platoon role with Diaz. While some people are saying Jones will make the team, I'm with those that think he will be sent to triple-A for more seasoning. He only got half a season of triple-A last year, and he looked rather lost in his few big league at-bats. Therefore, in my book Diaz gets the starting left-field job full time (but again, spring could tell a different story).
Here is my projection for Matt Diaz based on a full-time role this year:
.332/.370/.507 with 19 HR, 67 RBI, 29 BB, and 78 SO
I think he's primed to add more power this year (with regular playing time usually comes more power). The daily grind will cause him to regress a bit in his average, though it will still be among the tops in the league. The only damaging thing about Diaz in the lineup everyday is that it takes away possibly our best pinch hitter off the bench. It's still worth having Diaz in the lineup everyday. You can't ask for a better hitter to round out the 7th or 8th spot in your batting order.
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B. Jones...
Just like Lillibridge, Brandon needs the reps at the plate. And the only way he's getting that is playing every day for Richmond.
by RainDelay on Feb 22, 2008 1:59 PM EST 0 recs
Lefty
I still agree either way....Jones at Richmond, Diaz full time - period. I'm tired of the platoon(s)!
by secondbass on
Feb 22, 2008 3:17 PM EST
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doh...
by RainDelay on
Feb 22, 2008 6:23 PM EST
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Batting Order
KJ
Escobar
Chipper
Tex
Diaz
McCann
Frenchy
Kotsay
by jgraham on Feb 22, 2008 2:09 PM EST 0 recs
Uh...
In other words I'm betting it looks a bit more like this.
- Scooter
- Escobar
- Chipper
- Tex
- McCann
- Frenchy
- Diaz
- Kotsay
by RainDelay on
Feb 22, 2008 2:26 PM EST
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7th?
I think we can all agree, though, that anything but the 8 spot for Kotsay and the Braves are shooting themselves in the collective foot.
by jgraham on
Feb 23, 2008 4:19 PM EST
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Umm..
by RainDelay on
Feb 23, 2008 5:59 PM EST
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The new Larry Walker
by Chester Highwater on Feb 22, 2008 2:19 PM EST 0 recs
Poor man's maybe
For example, Diaz has walked in about 4% of his plate appearances; Walker in 11%. That's the big differance, as Walker could get on-base at a .400 clip and only need to bat .313 for his career to do it. If Diaz "only" hits .300 next year, it's likely his OBP will fall below .350.
FWIW, I can see something like a .310/.350/.475 line out of Diaz next year.
by 17843 on
Feb 22, 2008 10:52 PM EST
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Exactly....
326/.380/.511 with 22 HR, 62 RBI
Yuni
Scoot
Chip
Tex
Mac
Frenchy
Diaz
Kotsay
by traphicg on Feb 22, 2008 3:26 PM EST 0 recs
I dont know
by atl14yrsschafer on Feb 22, 2008 4:23 PM EST 0 recs
BA
by baseballbrett13 on
Feb 22, 2008 10:49 PM EST
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My guess....
Platooning: .345/9HR/48 RBI
Fulltime: .320/24HR/78RBI
by secondbass on Feb 23, 2008 8:08 AM EST 0 recs
i like diaz
by RehabReject on Feb 23, 2008 12:32 PM EST 0 recs
First 2 lineup spots
by TradeAndruw on Feb 24, 2008 5:18 AM EST 0 recs
Diaz's 2008 role.
It will not surprise me if Diaz has LF all to himself in 2008. Here's why.
If Brandon Jones hits well in March, Jones and Diaz might begin the season in a platoon. But Jones could easily get shipped back to AAA if he doesn't have a good spring. The biggest factor working against Jones is his inability to play CF. With Mark Kotsay pencilled-in as Atlanta's starting center fielder, and with Kotsay's recent injury history, the Braves will need someone on the bench who can play CF if Kotsay goes down. Maybe Omar Infante can handle the back-up CF assignment. But if he can't, then Bobby Cox may have to keep Josh Anderson as the club's fourth outfielder. And if that happens, then Jones gets optioned to AAA, and Diaz probably plays everyday in LF.
by Messenger on Feb 24, 2008 9:53 AM EST 0 recs
Unless
And, indeed, Mark "I No Can Write" Bowman has even mentioned that Anderson is a candidate to platoon in LF.
by jpx7 on
Feb 24, 2008 10:11 AM EST
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Platoon
In 2007, Anderson hit .358 (with a .413 OBP) in 67 ABs in Houston, in his first major league call-up. 67 ABs aren't much for assessing what he might be able to do in a full season. Basically, Anderson is a slap hitter with no power, but he can play all three OF positions well.
So if Bobby wants to keep platooning Diaz in LF, it would make a lot more sense to keep Brandon Jones on the roster. Jones hits for average and power, and would also be alright defensively in LF. Jones is the kind of athlete who could eventually develop into a productive #5 or #6 hitter. So if Jones hits well in March, I think a Jones/Diaz platoon is likely.
But if Bobby decides to hedge on Kotsay's health by keeping a versatile fourth defensive outfielder like Anderson, who can play CF, then Bobby will probably give Diaz a shot to play everyday in LF. If Diaz proves he can't handle playing everyday, they could call up Jones later in the season.
I suspect Diaz would be an effective everyday left fielder. In 2007, Diaz hit .318 against righthanded pitchers. He is a .320 career major league hitter. Defensively, he has made a lot of strides. He isn't Jeff Francoeur, but he doesn't hurt you defensively. The only knock I can see on Diaz is a lack of power, but he did manage to hit 12 HRs and drive in 45 runs (SLG .497) in 358 ABs in 2007. Those were the best power numbers of his career. He is still only 29 years old, too. His best years might still lie ahead.
by Messenger on
Feb 24, 2008 10:56 AM EST
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Oh Good
by VegasAces on
Feb 24, 2008 9:14 PM EST
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