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Community Projection: Matt Diaz

The community projections are back (mainly as filler until games start, but we do need to round out the rest of the players expected to make the opening day roster). First up is Matt Diaz, a Magellan in the outfield. Bobby Cox recently alluded to the fact that Diaz could certainly be an everyday player on Bobby's team. Well, I'll see it when I believe it. Until then he's likely relegated to a platoon roll with young up-and-comer Brandon Jones (though, spring is a tough beast to tame, and Jones could stumble, leaving Diaz alone in left).

The real question we should be asking ourselves is "why shouldn't Matt Diaz be an everyday player?" The guy has only gotten better each of the last two years as he's received more playing time. A .338 average in 135 games is a pretty rare thing. Add to that the fact that he hits right-handers almost as good as he hits left-handers, and he's more than just a platoon player. His .318 batting average last year against right-handers is certainly more than any of other candidates we have are expected to put up. The only knock on him when facing right-handers is that his patience and power decrease dramatically, but that could be remedied by more frequent reps against them which comes with increased playing time.

We will have to wait and see what Brandon Jones does this spring to know if he will make the team in a platoon role with Diaz. While some people are saying Jones will make the team, I'm with those that think he will be sent to triple-A for more seasoning. He only got half a season of triple-A last year, and he looked rather lost in his few big league at-bats. Therefore, in my book Diaz gets the starting left-field job full time (but again, spring could tell a different story).

Here is my projection for Matt Diaz based on a full-time role this year:

.332/.370/.507 with 19 HR, 67 RBI, 29 BB, and 78 SO

I think he's primed to add more power this year (with regular playing time usually comes more power). The daily grind will cause him to regress a bit in his average, though it will still be among the tops in the league. The only damaging thing about Diaz in the lineup everyday is that it takes away possibly our best pinch hitter off the bench. It's still worth having Diaz in the lineup everyday. You can't ask for a better hitter to round out the 7th or 8th spot in your batting order.

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B. Jones...
..should start in Richmond this year period. Even platoon which really wouldn't work since both Matt and B. Jones are both right handed.

Just like Lillibridge, Brandon needs the reps at the plate. And the only way he's getting that is playing every day for Richmond.

by RainDelay on Feb 22, 2008 1:59 PM EST   0 recs

Lefty
Brandon bats lefty, doesn't he?
I still agree either way....Jones at Richmond, Diaz full time - period.  I'm tired of the platoon(s)!

by secondbass on Feb 22, 2008 3:17 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

doh...
..may bad he is a lefty. I get my 'Jones'' mixed up sometime. As in Brandon and Adam (now in Balt. after being in Seattle)

by RainDelay on Feb 22, 2008 6:23 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Batting Order
With a line like that, Diaz should be hitting 5th.  McCann will have to have a pretty big jump in OPS to get on as often (same for Frenchy) and nobody else outside of Chipper and Tex will have a SLG better than .500

KJ
Escobar
Chipper
Tex
Diaz
McCann
Frenchy
Kotsay

Jason Graham http://nodirectionneeded.blogspot.com

by jgraham on Feb 22, 2008 2:09 PM EST   0 recs

Uh...
McCann has been the 5th guy for a while now, and knowing Bobby that ain't going to change. He'll hit in the bottom of the order - which really is a good place for him.

In other words I'm betting it looks a bit more like this.

  1. Scooter
  2. Escobar
  3. Chipper
  4. Tex
  5. McCann
  6. Frenchy
  7. Diaz
  8. Kotsay

by RainDelay on Feb 22, 2008 2:26 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

7th?
How can you justify putting a guy with a lower OBP and a lower SLG ahead of a guy with higher numbers in both?  Unless you think Frenchy is going to hit better than Diaz, what's the logic behind putting him in the 6 hole?  I can understand that most feel McCann will bounce back from last season, so I won't argue the point.

I think we can all agree, though, that anything but the 8 spot for Kotsay and the Braves are shooting themselves in the collective foot.

Jason Graham http://nodirectionneeded.blogspot.com

by jgraham on Feb 23, 2008 4:19 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Umm..
...well last year Frenchy hit in the 6th hole behind McCann. Except when it was a lefty and then McCann hit 6th. I'm pretty much going by what Bobby had as a line up last year.

by RainDelay on Feb 23, 2008 5:59 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

The new Larry Walker
Thats what kind of hitter Diaz is in my book.  He is a must plug into this already sick lineup.  I think Gondee's predictions are right on.  Am I being biased in saying this is one of the best lineups in not just the NL but in baseball?  Sure we can all go around and around with jgraham's lineup but start doing it and you'll see the Braves have so many interchangeable parts.  Looking at this lineup the only weakness is Kotsay but batting him 8th would be ideal b/c he puts the ball in play.  

by Chester Highwater on Feb 22, 2008 2:19 PM EST   0 recs

Poor man's maybe
Larry Walker was an OBP machine, posting a .400 OBP for his career. Diaz's OBP is extremely reliant on his high average.

For example, Diaz has walked in about 4% of his plate appearances; Walker in 11%. That's the big differance, as Walker could get on-base at a .400 clip and only need to bat .313 for his career to do it. If Diaz "only" hits .300 next year, it's likely his OBP will fall below .350.

FWIW, I can see something like a .310/.350/.475 line out of Diaz next year.

by 17843 on Feb 22, 2008 10:52 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Exactly....
I didnt want to sound biased either but c'mon! Look at that lineup! We're wondering if Frenchy should bat 6th or 7th!!?! That's a great problem to have. I personally get excited whenever Diaz is in the lineup, b/c he's obviously showed he can grow, and will grow further, defensively, and he's arguably the most underrated batter in the NL East. Diaz is a great player to have:

326/.380/.511 with 22 HR, 62 RBI

Yuni
Scoot
Chip
Tex
Mac
Frenchy
Diaz
Kotsay

by traphicg on Feb 22, 2008 3:26 PM EST   0 recs

I dont know
I dont see Diaz hitting quite the same in a full time role. Due to the strains of a full season and pitchers seeing him more to get to adjust to him. I think he should hit somewhere around .289/348/478 with 20 HR, 58 RBI

by atl14yrsschafer on Feb 22, 2008 4:23 PM EST   0 recs

BA
I agree that if he plays every day that his BA will probably drop a lot more than gondeee predicted. I still see him hitting anywhere from .290 to .320, which should be enough to give him the starting role all by himself.
http://www.baseballbrett13.blogspot.com

by baseballbrett13 on Feb 22, 2008 10:49 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

My guess....
Unfortunately, I sense a platoon.
Platooning:  .345/9HR/48 RBI
Fulltime:  .320/24HR/78RBI

by secondbass on Feb 23, 2008 8:08 AM EST   0 recs

i like diaz
he is a good hitter. platoon or not, he'll do well.

by RehabReject on Feb 23, 2008 12:32 PM EST   0 recs

First 2 lineup spots
Bat the 2 highest OBPs, end of story.

by TradeAndruw on Feb 24, 2008 5:18 AM EST   0 recs

Diaz's 2008 role.
Matt Diaz is a .320 lifetime major league hitter.

It will not surprise me if Diaz has LF all to himself in 2008.  Here's why.  

If Brandon Jones hits well in March, Jones and Diaz might begin the season in a platoon.   But Jones could easily get shipped back to AAA if he doesn't have a good spring.   The biggest factor working against Jones is his inability to play CF.  With Mark Kotsay pencilled-in as Atlanta's starting center fielder, and with Kotsay's recent injury history, the Braves will need someone on the bench who can play CF if Kotsay goes down.   Maybe Omar Infante can handle the back-up CF assignment.  But if he can't, then Bobby Cox may have to keep Josh Anderson as the club's fourth outfielder.  And if that happens, then Jones gets optioned to AAA, and Diaz probably plays everyday in LF.

Braves fan since 1958.

by Messenger on Feb 24, 2008 9:53 AM EST   0 recs

Unless
If Cox does something silly, like tries to platoon Diaz with Anderson - because he likes Anderson's "wheels," or because he bats left-handed, or just because he's afraid to destabilize the success Diaz has had heretofore - then Diaz might not be employed as the everyday left-fielder, even with Jones in AAA.  

And, indeed, Mark "I No Can Write" Bowman has even mentioned that Anderson is a candidate to platoon in LF.

by jpx7 on Feb 24, 2008 10:11 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Platoon
Yes, that is a possibility.   But I don't believe Bobby Cox will try the Anderson/Diaz platoon in LF just because Anderson hits lefthanded.   I think Anderson would have to earn that role with a strong spring performance.  

In 2007, Anderson hit .358 (with a .413 OBP) in 67 ABs in Houston, in his first major league call-up.   67 ABs aren't much for assessing what he might be able to do in a full season.  Basically, Anderson is a slap hitter with no power, but he can play all three OF positions well.  

So if Bobby wants to keep platooning Diaz in LF, it would make a lot more sense to keep Brandon Jones on the roster.  Jones hits for average and power, and would also be alright defensively in LF.  Jones is the kind of athlete who could eventually develop into a productive #5 or #6 hitter.  So if Jones hits well in March, I think a Jones/Diaz platoon is likely.

But if Bobby decides to hedge on Kotsay's health by keeping a versatile fourth defensive outfielder like Anderson, who can play CF, then  Bobby will probably give Diaz a shot to play everyday in LF.   If Diaz proves he can't handle playing everyday, they could call up Jones later in the season.

I suspect Diaz would be an effective everyday left fielder.  In 2007, Diaz hit .318 against righthanded pitchers.  He is a .320 career major league hitter.  Defensively, he has made a lot of strides.  He isn't Jeff Francoeur, but he doesn't hurt you defensively.  The only knock I can see on Diaz is a lack of power, but he did manage to hit 12 HRs and drive in 45 runs (SLG .497) in 358 ABs in 2007.   Those were the best power numbers of his career.  He is still only 29 years old, too.  His best years might still lie ahead.

Braves fan since 1958.

by Messenger on Feb 24, 2008 10:56 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Oh Good
I thought I was the only one who isn't a big fan of Bowman's writing.

by VegasAces on Feb 24, 2008 9:14 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

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