Community Projection: Jeff Francoeur

by gondeee on Feb 12, 2008 11:48 AM EST in Community Projections

Rounding out the known starting lineup (I'm assuming that left field is still up in the air this spring) we turn our attention to the poster boy of the Atlanta Braves, right-fielder Jeff Francoeur. Frenchy is an interesting guy to project. For some reason he brings out some of the strongest opinions among members of the Braves fan base. It was only a year ago when many were projecting that Francoeur would not improve upon his 2006 season, and that he was for all intents and purposes a fluke.

Frenchy silenced some of the critics last year, but he likely didn't silence all of them. The biggest area of improvement for the still 24-year old outfielder was in the patience department. He's been a hacker since the first day he stepped on a baseball field, but last year he was able to tame the inner hacker and raise his on-base percentage 45 points to a respectable .338. He may have done that at the expense of a bit of his homerun power, as he had a 10 HR drop-off. But he almost doubled the amount of doubles he hit the previous year and kept his slugging percentage at just about the same level it was at in 2006. The homerun drop-off also didn't hurt his ability to drive in runs as he bested his career high by 2 RBI.

The interesting result of his give-and-take between power and patience was that his OPS ended up being the exact same as his career average to date. So what Francoeur did in 2007 was to maintain his average production - which I guess is exactly the median prediction of what his season should have looked like. As special as some may think he is, last year he was really just average... for him.

So what will become of Francoeur in 2008? Will he continue his newfound patient approach or will he try to cut it back in favor of more homerun power? Could he be more at ease in a Braves lineup that now features Big Tex as an anchor in the middle of the order? Here is my average but slightly improving prediction of his 2008 season:

.301/.339/.462 with 24 HR, 112 RBI, 41 BB, and 125 SO in yet again a full 162-game season

I just keep remembering that he was 21 when he made his major league debut. He was 22 during his first full season in the big leagues, and through all that he kept his production up at respectable levels. Say what you will about "value over replacement player" numbers, I don't put much stock in such things - the guy still drives in 100 runs a year and scores 80 and hits for decent power, and he's still a young hitter who is learning on the job.

The question many people keep asking is when will Francoeur take that "next step" and become the 30-plus homerun power hitter and anchor of a lineup that many baseball people think he can be. Could it be this year, or do we have to wait another year or two for that to happen? Regardless, all signs point to Frenchy still being Frenchy in 2008, and hopefully that will be good enough to help us to the playoffs.

(Though, this year he'll be married Frenchy... sorry ladies.)

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Chipper said it...

When Chipper was blogging w/ DOB on the AJC he mentioned that Frenchy needed to make a step towards super stardome. Well I don't see any reason to say he won't. Maybe it won't be this year but I would predict that he will continue to improve. One word to describe French...Winner.

I say his power will go up while keeping the high BA. Bobby will have him batting in the 5 or 6 hole depending on who is pitching or who is hot between him and Mac. With his added patience at the plate and two sluggers batting ahead of him we very well could see Frenchy make his first of many all-star apperances.

My prediction:
.320
25 HR's
110 RBI's

Gold glove? Why not...throw that in the mix.

My question: Once Chipper decides to hang it up will Frenchy be able to replace him as the go to guy in the line up? I believe sooner rather than later.

by Chester Highwater on Feb 12, 2008 1:17 PM EST 0 recs

No.

.280/.325/.470 is my 2008 line for Francoeur. That's yet another baby step forward, but not one on the path to greatness as some might believe. Honestly, I don't seem him as a true superstar, not now and not ever. Like a lot of former football-playing toolsy prospects, I think his potential was a bit of a mirage and his ceiling artificially high. He's a good player and we'll never regret giving him 150+ starts, but he's no Chipper Jones (at least not at the plate). I think he'll be a good 5/6-hole hitter and outfielder, but no All-Star. If he ever makes it to that game, it'll be because of his general popularity and highlight reel plays, not his overall performance. If you look at his track record, you'll see I'm right.

Come check out my blog 52 Card Pick-up and let me know what you think!

by ejruiz on Feb 12, 2008 2:17 PM EST up 0 recs

Track Record?

What track record are we talking about here? His two full seasons in the Show? Fair enough. When I look at his track record, I see improvements. There is no reason to suspect at this point that he won't continue to improve at the plate. It isn't remotely a stretch to think that he could develop into an All-Star caliber player two or three years down there road on the merits of his overall performance... not just on the merits of his highlight reel.

This is me choosing to be optimistic. Two years really isn't enough of a "track record" to start getting down on Frenchy just yet.

by Chopaholic on Feb 12, 2008 3:07 PM EST up 0 recs

are you a braves fan?

majority of what i see you write seems to be negative and disproving what Gondee says..... hmmmm....

if you're a braves fan, stop being so pessimistic. If you're a mets fan, spying on us, HAHA - WE GOT GLAV!!!

by traphicg on Feb 12, 2008 4:11 PM EST up 0 recs

Braves Fan Right Here.

I am, in fact, a Braves fan. I have been since I started following Major League Baseball in the early 90's. That said, I am also objective. The reason why it seems like all I say is negative is because the rest (the majority, in fact) of what I write blends into the chorus of hyper-optimism on this site. I am actually extremely high on Matt Diaz, Kelly Johnson, Gregor Blanco and several other Braves that most are not (at least not to the same degree). I refuse to buy into the Francoeur Mirage, fueled by the perception of his blazing hot rookie performance and the plethora of highlights/charisma.

If you'd bother to look, my projection for Francoeur falls in line with his career numbers, actually smack in between his minor and major league numbers. Take a look:

Majors - .280/.319/.463 in 1550 AB
Minors - .282/.330/.478 in 1416 AB

He is who he is: a toolsy guy whose performance is adequate-to-good, but not as impressive as his scouting ceiling might suggest. In fact, giving him credit for his aggregate totals is kind, because it adds in positive outliers that should probably be disregarded. In other words, his peaks deviate from the norm much more than his valleys do, so he benefits from these tallies. My projection is fair, stipulates some improvement along the same lines that we saw last season; likewise, my assessment of his future is fair because there is no real reason to believe that he'll blossom into something he's never been.

The guy we saw light the league on fire in 2005 was aided by the fact that pitchers didn't know him well enough and, since they've adjusted, we've seen modest returns. I stand by what I've said: he's a good player that deserves to start in RF for us now and into the near future, but he's no superstar and he's not likely to be. He's a fringe star at best and much more likely to be strictly a solid starter.

Come check out my blog 52 Card Pick-up and let me know what you think!

by ejruiz on Feb 12, 2008 4:24 PM EST up 0 recs

Prediction

He definitely needs to improve in the plate discipline department. It's not as imperative since he's a little further down in the batting order, but I'd still like to see him increase those walks to about 60 per year or so, and definitely cut down on his free-swinging ways. As far as predictions, I think he'll have a good year and OPS somewhere around .800, which is decent for a RF. However, his defense is great, and probably saves the Braves double-digit runs per year, especially with his cannon for an arm, so I'm willing to accept a little bit less offensive output from him for that laser rocket arm. My prediction:

.285/ .340/ .460
20 HR
110 RBI (I put pretty much no weight in RBI's, as they're a pretty useless stat, but I'll put it here anyway)
45 2B
20-25 outfield assists.

by drdonkeypunch on Feb 12, 2008 2:23 PM EST 0 recs

I think

that Frenchy is making some good strides towards being a great player. His improvements from 05 to 06 good. He got more hits walked more didn't strike out as much. He had no triples and 16 more doubles which shows me that he got smarter on the base paths. Maybe not stretching as many doubles. We all know he is a great right fielder and I think when he hits for some more power he will be a great player.

by jack dein on Feb 12, 2008 3:03 PM EST 0 recs

French is not replacing Chip ever!!!

French is the man don't get me wrong; however, French has not even signed an extension to his contract to remain with the Braves. You can not compare a player like Chip who has been loyal to one team his entire career, to a 24-year-old, that has not entered into a contract extension with his team. If anything Tex will be the one to replace Chip. Tex is a switch-hitter, great player all around, and the MAN!!! Plus, according to a plentiful amount of articles the owners are planning on selling the team, which means keeping Tex, along with the growing attendance, will increase the value of the team. Tex = Chip. French = Draft pick if he doesn't resign, or Franchise Player if he wants to continue to buddy up with his boy McCann.

by Pirates07 on Feb 12, 2008 3:19 PM EST 0 recs

Ejruiz

Hey buddy. You need to relax with your comments. My comments about Mark Kotsay were to entice a discussion not an argument. We all get it bro.... You're the man!!! You spend your entire day writing on a blog with a dictionary in one hand, and your small pecker in the other. Get a life dude and grow up. If all Brave fans were as angry as you we would end up with a bunch of John Rocker's. Cool man! Relax before your next comment. We are all on the same side bro. Grow up!

by Pirates07 on Feb 12, 2008 3:29 PM EST 0 recs

thank you!!

someone said it better. I tried to reply to him up top, but this was better. good job.

by traphicg on Feb 12, 2008 4:13 PM EST up 0 recs

I Apologize.

If I said anything to upset or offend you, then I'm sorry. But if disagreeing with you is my transgression, then you should just toughen up and learn to defend your points more effectively. Oh, and if the comment above is somehow better than what you had to say... man, you need to work on expressing yourself and formulating actual ideas. Go Braves!

Come check out my blog 52 Card Pick-up and let me know what you think!

by ejruiz on Feb 12, 2008 4:55 PM EST up 0 recs

Grow Up???

I'm being told to grow up by a guy who uses phrases like "you spend your entire day writing on a blog with a dictionary in one hand, and your small pecker in the other"??? Awesome! The cherry on top of this hypocracy sundae has to be the fact that this emotional respose, completely devoid of substance, also requests that I "calm down". If nothing else, you're a wonderful example of the term oxymoron. Or at least the last five letters of it... SNAP! OK, that was fun, but it was entirely in jest and I hope you don't take it too seriously. I certainly took your comment lightly and I hope you do the same with mine. That said, I do have a point to make.

If your Mark Kotsay comment was intended to spark discussion, then you succeeded. You state that your goal with it was to foster debate which, by definition, would require members to take opposing points of view and support them. If you can't handle disagreement, vigorous as it may be (and I apologize if I ever crossed the line somehow) then perhaps you shouldn't set out to start arguments. We are on the same side, but we don't have to see eye to eye all the time. Now, if we discussed Kelly Johnson, I'd probably echo your optimism!

And no, I don't always think I'm right and I don't proport to be. I think the hallmark of intelligence isn't being right all the time, but rather challenging your opinions through thorough debate and embracing the winning side, regardless of whether it was yours to begin with. I'm not "the man" nor do I think I am; I'm just a passionate (albeit critically objective) Braves fan. I hope you understand.

Come check out my blog 52 Card Pick-up and let me know what you think!

by ejruiz on Feb 12, 2008 4:52 PM EST up 0 recs

more on Chipper = Frenchy...down the line

Do you really think the Bravos would ever NOT sign Frenchy to a long term deal? It would be a publicity nightmare since the media, the braves marketing department, and the fans have set him up as the heir to the throne. I probably could look it up but I'm too lazy...does anybody know what Chipper did his first 2.5 seasons? Both were hyped coming into the show and both produced at a high level so I don't see why Frenchy can't become the superstud we all want him to be.

Mabye I'm trying to rush him into to being a star too soon but I don't see it as a stretch to think he can't be the next Chipper.

by Chester Highwater on Feb 12, 2008 3:59 PM EST 0 recs

Chipper v. Francouer

Minors
Chipper - .320/.384/.504 in 1555 AB
Francoeur - .282/.330/.478 in 1416 AB

I don't really feel like seperating out Chipper's first 1500 major league AB to compare him then to Francouer, but the difference in their track record in the minors shows the huge gap between the two in their true potential. Chipper is a HoF (at least in my book) while Francoeur is just a solid starter. I know I make it sound like a bad thing, but "just" a solid starter (I've also said the absolute ceiling for Jeff is "fringe star") is actually quite good. Like I've said, we'll never regret playing him 150+ games in the outfield, I just don't think he's a future superstar. He's not the type of guy you put in the middle of the order, but rather just outside of it. I like Francoeur and his popularity should keep him in Atlanta for a long time, but if all goes well (and that's a big if) with Schafer and Heyward, they'd likely be the critical bats in our future line-ups. I'm not Anti-Frenchy; I'm just an objective, realistic baseball fan. I enjoy watching him play as much as any other Braves fan. I can't stress this enough, because people try to ignore it.

Come check out my blog 52 Card Pick-up and let me know what you think!

by ejruiz on Feb 12, 2008 5:04 PM EST 0 recs

Well....

.....I'm not objective at all! I think the Braves will win it all now, I think we've got two starters who will win 20 games this year, and I think the French man will improve to such a level that he'll eventually be a multiple MVP award guy and an eventual perennial all star selection based on his production, not his popularity. But that's just me. I'm a fan who has a hard time being objective, and Jeff is my favorite on the team.

So on this we disagree, but man, where did the slam on you come from? For my 2 cents, your posts are some of the first I look for - so take it all with a grain of salt, as I'm sure you did....

by secondbass on Feb 12, 2008 6:41 PM EST up 0 recs

Thanks.

Hey, I never said the Braves wouldn't win it all now! 20 games is a high hurdle, but we do have two guys capable of threatening that mark if they're healthy (Smoltz?) and consistent (Huddy?). That, and our 'pen has to play to par throughout. As for Francoeur... well, we'll disagree. I like him and love watching him play. I think he helps us win and I hope he's a Brave for a long time. If he becomes a perrenial All-Star/MVP candidate, then I'll be pleasantly surprised, I'm just not expecting that. The majority opinion is that he will turn the superstar corner and that it'll happen this year, so who knows. I could be wrong... I hope I'm wrong!

Come check out my blog 52 Card Pick-up and let me know what you think!

by ejruiz on Feb 12, 2008 7:02 PM EST up 0 recs

My prediction...

Okay, so I can be a little realistic:

.295, 32HR, 111 RBI
Throw in 10 steals (I think Bobby lets the team run this year...)

by secondbass on Feb 12, 2008 6:43 PM EST 0 recs

Prediction

I would say:
.295/.345/.490 27 110 10

I don't think you are going to see things just suddenly "CLICK" with Jeff. However, I think you are going to see him get a little better every year.

As for the comparison's to Chipper. They are totally different hitters. I think that Jeff could end up being the cornerstone "Brave" that Chipper is now but he won't be as complete of a hitter as Chipper has become. Their approaches and styles are dramatically different.

Chipper is a classic #3 hitter. Franceour, even if he develops into an all-star, is probably more of a career 4 or 5 hitter. I don't ever see him becoming that selective type hitter who puts his OBP at .400 or above. I see him settling into a range of .350-.360 but eventually working himself into a consistent 35-40 HR category.

by calbers on Feb 13, 2008 12:42 PM EST 0 recs