Rule 5 Possibility for the Braves: Kei Igawa

by gondeee on Dec 7, 2008 4:06 PM EST in Trade News Comment 32 comments

The Atlanta Braves will have one of the top-10 picks in this year's Rule 5 draft this Thursday at the Winter Meetings. That's the highest selection we've had in 18 years. There are several interesting possibilities out there, but this one hit me as particularly interesting, albeit somewhat risky (though, what Rule 5 selections aren't risky). I was reading John Perotto's preview of the Rule 5 over at Baseball Prospectus and rolled up upon this review of Yankee's left-handed starter Kei Igawa:

He has been a bust since the Yankees spent $46 million to bring him over from Japan in the 2006-07 offseason, paying a $26 million posting fee to the Hanshin Tigers, and then giving him a five-year, $20 million contract. Igawa has just 0.1 WARP3 in two major league seasons, but he did have a 3.45 ERA in 156 1/3 innings for Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre last year with 141 hits allowed, 45 walks, and 117 strikeouts for a 4.79 DERA. He is 28 and a lefty, so someone might take on the final three years and $12 million on his contract.

Igawa was a total bust for the Yanks, and probably reminded some of Chuck James with the way he gave up homeruns in 2007, but Igawa is more of a strikeout pitcher than James. Igawa is owed $4 million in each of the next three years, which is similar to what we reportedly were willing to offer Junichi Tazawa. So if Tazawa was worth the risk, then why not Igawa, especially since Igawa already has some experience in American baseball, and by looking at his minor league numbers, seems to be learning how to pitch in the states.

Here is a link to Igawa's stats including stats from Japan. Here are some 2007 splits from MiLB.com.

Look, I'm not saying he would be the next coming, but at only $4 million per year and a track record in Japan of being a 200+ inning power pitcher, the potential upside is tremendous. The Braves are in a position to spend that kind of money on an uncertain quantity because of their willingness to give similar money to Tazawa and their desperate need for starting pitching. If he doesn't perform, it's possible that the Yankees would not want him back. In that case, yes, we would be stuck with the contract, but he'd also be signed for two more years, allowing for more opportunities to improve and succeed.

As I said above, the Rule 5 happens on the last day of the winter meetings, so a lot can change between now and then. A lot of options can disappear from the Braves shopping list, necessetating a move like this. But even if we do sign A.J. Burnett or bring in Jake Peavy via trade, Igawa would still be a worthy risk in the fourth or fifth starter spot.

(Of course, the Braves have a full 40-man roster, so who knows if they would even be willing to take anyone off of it to add Igawa.)

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I wouldn’t have a problem with him. He was a bust in New York but so was Contreras before he went to the White Sox. The only problem is that I think all 40 spots are full so some roster moving would have to be done but thats not a problem.

by jack dein on Dec 7, 2008 4:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

It’s worth a shot. High upside and not that much money invested. Also a change of scenery from the media frenzy of New York to the more laid back Atlanta could also help. I’d do it.

by palioc33 on Dec 7, 2008 4:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I think I would take a chance on him. I think it takes pitchers time to adjust in the US. Especially in NY. We can roll the dice with Kei, if it doesnt work out we can trade him. its only 4 million, thats consider a bargain, but u have to perform. Like Jack Dein said, we have a full roster already but you can never have enough pitching.

by AlRoBraves95 on Dec 7, 2008 4:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I like the idea of having several inning-eating types, it’s been quite a while. I don’t trust Campillo to repeat his performance, and Jair is due to regress IMO.

by TradeAndruw on Dec 7, 2008 5:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

If Jair regresses to a league average HR rate he’ll still be a 3.9 ERA guy, but he can still get better too.

A low 4 ERA from Campillo is very reasonable which means with some luck, he could put up a 3.9 ERA again. People keep thinking he’s a fluke because his fastball is 86, but his peripherals were good and his offspeed pitches are good. Combine that with pinpoint control and you have a solid to good big league pitcher. His K to BB ratio was right around 3:1.

by VictorW on Dec 7, 2008 6:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Plus

Jurrjen’s throws harder than 86. He is not a flamethrower but his fastball isn’t bad. Maybe he is just a good pitcher.

by eaheckman10 on Dec 7, 2008 7:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Edit

Sorry, I thought you were referring to Jurrjens when talking about an 86 mph fastball. My apologies

by eaheckman10 on Dec 7, 2008 7:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

jurrjens is especially susceptible to injury after a 45 and 1/3 inning increase from his 2007 to 2008 seasons. he is on the smallish side and will be 23 years old. we need to take care to protect him as much as possible. though he is very mechanically sound with clean arm action, he had minor arm problems in his minor league career and wore down late in the year as do most rookie pitchers. statistically, his peripheral statistics were not out of line relative to his performance. given that his size, stuff, and present command dont lend much in the way of projection, he seems more likely to peak earlier in his career than the average pitcher so it would be in our best interest to not overwork him at this stage of his career and risk him spending time on the DL when he should be at his best

by jeg on Dec 8, 2008 2:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

yeah

“I like the idea of having several inning-eating types”

i can’t see anything going wrong with this plan.

by son.of.sourman on Dec 8, 2008 4:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

except having pitches who eat up innins all the while giving up 10 runs an outing

"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."

by Swo12bv on Dec 8, 2008 12:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

if its innings eaters your after, livan hernandez is RIGHT THERE

I probably care about sports way too much. Like, waaaaaaaaay too much.

by bigjoe on Dec 8, 2008 1:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

At his price, I don’t see enough teams passing him up to give the Braves a chance. Would be a great pickup though and exactly the type this team needs to explore.

by JFP on Dec 7, 2008 6:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

If you want replacement level innings eaters there’s guys like Claudio Vargas and Tomo Ohka.

by VictorW on Dec 7, 2008 6:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

ohka signed with cleveland i think

I probably care about sports way too much. Like, waaaaaaaaay too much.

by bigjoe on Dec 7, 2008 7:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The Chuck James comparison is actually pretty accurate.

Both throw 88-89 MPH fastballs and have a 76-78 MPH changeup. Igawa throws a 78 MPH slider too.

by VictorW on Dec 7, 2008 7:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Kei Igawa seems like a good risk to take. Anyone know any other notables we could pick up?

by SayHeyWerd on Dec 7, 2008 7:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Notable is a judgement call, but Jeff Allison is available. He was the top high school pitcher when he was drafted but has had his career sidetracked by various drug addictions. He pitched at high A last year and if he’s over his problems could help somebody. It won’t be the Braves, but somebody will pick him.
Of the names I’ve heard I like Donnie Veal from the Cubs’ organization. I think he’d be a good lefty out of the pen. But with Boone Logan and Eric O’Flaherty being added to the team and no roster spots, that one probably won’t happen either.

by cbwilk on Dec 8, 2008 2:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

allison is DEFINITELY an intriguing name, as i was heard he was “back” last season

I probably care about sports way too much. Like, waaaaaaaaay too much.

by bigjoe on Dec 8, 2008 1:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Question

How is Igawa Rule 5 eligible?

by eaheckman10 on Dec 7, 2008 7:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

He could be the "Kei" to our success

by scottyboy10 on Dec 7, 2008 8:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

its not pronounced like that…

I probably care about sports way too much. Like, waaaaaaaaay too much.

by bigjoe on Dec 7, 2008 9:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

BOO

by 10-4 on Dec 7, 2008 9:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

HaHa!!!! Clever Wordplay!!! LAWLZ!!!!

by SayHeyWerd on Dec 7, 2008 9:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Y'know gondeee...

Alot of the ideas that spew from your twisted alcoholic mind really suck. This one however, I can actually get behind. A pitcher with the potential of Igawa for the very reasonable salary he’s owed over the next few years would be a very acceptable risk to take, especially if Wren thinks it doesn’t look promising for us to acquire Peavy or Burnett.

In the words of your idols from the Guiness commercials, “BRILLIANT!”

Well, its alot better idea than that whole “sign Griffey” phase you went through anyway.

by Rhyno18 on Dec 7, 2008 10:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I don’t recall anyone here proposing the acquisition of Griffey Jr. All I’m looking for is someone to go 200+ innings/year at a 4.00 ERA. Sad that such meager credentials can earn 10+mil/year.

by TradeAndruw on Dec 7, 2008 11:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

our fearless leader did in his TOP TEN FREE AGENTS list at the beginning of last month

I probably care about sports way too much. Like, waaaaaaaaay too much.

by bigjoe on Dec 7, 2008 11:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

thats what no salary cap and agents do for a sport.

by jack dein on Dec 7, 2008 11:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Griffey needs to stay in the AL where he only would have to play the outfield about 80 games a year and could DH the rest. There is no way that he would last a full season playing the outfield. The main problem with this years free agent class is that all the outfielders with the exception of 2 are old. Dunn and Burrell are the only two that could help a team more than 2 or 3 years. I really think that to fill that left field spot we trade for someone.

by jack dein on Dec 7, 2008 11:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I never really thought about Igawa one way or the other until I met him this year while he was pitching for Scranton-Wilkes Barre. The guy won the Japanese equivalent of the Cy Young award a couple of times and he was as down to earth and fan friendly as any player I’ve ever met. He definitely made a fan out of me.
Plus, he pitched a pretty good game then too.
I doubt the Braves will create a roster space to take him, but I’d guess somebody will. It could turn out to be a very astute pickup.

by cbwilk on Dec 8, 2008 2:49 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Kei Igawa..

No. Please. Say it’s not true. Please!! Tell me! I can’t take it! NOOOOOO! God will really happen?? IGAWA!!!!!!

by son.of.sourman on Dec 8, 2008 4:09 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

A thousand times NO

To quote RainDelay.

Igawa stinks more than his numbers reveal. Imagine Russ Ortiz. You’d think “wow, this guy won 20+ games, I wish he was on MY team,” but then when you realize that it’s Russ Ortiz, you change your mind.

There is this Korean baseball player I’ve had my eye on since the 2006 WBC, who plays for the Yomiuri Giants. YouTubing his highlights revealed many occasions where he took Igawa yard, and I kept thinking “what a putz!” seeing a disappointed guy with hanging stuff getting demolished. Through looking through other clips with indistinguishable Chinese labels, I began to recognize this guy as a frequent recipient of the wrong end of highlight reels. I for one have learned not to rely so much on visuals, but in Igawa’s case, all I can say is NO, NO, NO, NO for the Braves.

I laughed when the Yankees took him as an obvious knee-jerk reaction for failing to get Matsuzaka. And then I was about as surprised as finding out that bigjoe was an alcoholic when it turned out that he stank for the Yankees, and of course, laughed about it. Kei Igawa is like the second coming of Hideki Irabu – plain and simple.

No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.

by royhobbs on Dec 8, 2008 8:47 AM EST reply actions 0 recs