I used to hate Keith Law but eventually became aware that he really is one of the more informed analysts out there. BP and BA both have good writeups of the trade as well.

It’s essentially Vazquez for Flowers. Rodriguez is a crapshoot at this point.

It’s a good trade, in my opinion.

I like this trade too.

I also like that Vazquez can pitch a lot of innings and is a power pitcher. It sucks giving up Flowers, but we didn’t have to give up any of our top pitching prospects in return, so it’s all good.

because checking Vazquez’s pitch f/x, Law looks wrong or maybe just outdated.

Vazquez’s fastball has average movement at worst. Little less vertical but more horizontal. It averages 93.1 MPH and can actually touch up to 96, maybe 97. For comparison, Smoltz in 2007 was averaging 93.5 MPH on his heater. Actually, they have nearly identical movement on their fastballs. Looking at Smoltz’s 2007 pitch f/x, they throw the same 4 pitches (Fastball, Curve, Change, Slider). Does Smoltz still throw the splitter? Maybe some of those are lost in the data. A Vazquez/Smoltz comparison would be fun to write up some day.

The best offspeed pitch Vazquez has is his changeup. It looks absolutely devastating. 11 MPH in speed difference, nearly identical horizontal movement, and 3 inches less vertical movement. The difference in speed and movement actually looks very similar to Johan Santana’s fastball/changeup combo (except right handed of course). Both the curve and slider look like they’re above average pitches, with the slider being the better pitch.

Anyway I don’t think saying Vazquez has a flat 90-93 MPH fastball with 2 average offspeed pitches and one slightly below is very accurate. He’s not going to strike out 200 guys a season with that kind of repertoire.

I have a problem with this line too:

he defaults to his fastball when he’s behind in the count, it results in some very hard-hit balls.

Because what pitcher doesn’t go to their fastball when they’re behind?