Julio Teheran

From a Baseball American Q & A (Response by Jim Callis):

It has been said that Braves righthander Julio Teheran has the best stuff of any 16-year-old pitcher in recent memory. Felix Hernandez was a pitcher in recent memory. How do they compare at the same age?

Steve Haws
Las Vegas

The top pitcher on the Latin American market last summer, Teheran signed for $850,000. A Colombian, he showed off a 94-95 mph fastball, a late-biting 78-79 mph curveball and an 81-82 mph changeup with nice sink during instructional league. I'm anxious to see how he does in his pro debut this year, because he does have the best arm among international amateurs since Hernandez signed with the Mariners for $710,000 in 2002.

We don't have any scouting reports on Hernandez when he was 16. The following year, he was dominating the short-season Northwest League with a mid-90s fastball, a devastating curveball and a changeup. At 6-foot-3 and 170 pounds, Hernandez was an inch taller and 10 pounds heavier than Teheran is now.

In other words, they're very comparable. And that's a good omen for Teheran and the Braves, because Hernandez is the best pitching prospect of the decade thus far. His major league career to this point hasn't been too shabby either. He has gone 30-25, 3.94 with a 418-136 K-BB ratio in 466 innings—and he's still just 21.

This Q&A took place in January ('08). 

Nick Papageorgio (Yuma, AZ): Is this Julio Teheran kid legit? His most recent scouting reports are insane…sitting at 95 with a plus change as well as two other potential plus pitches. At 16 years old?!?! Is this guy the next Felix Hernandez?

Jim Callis: Well, he hasn’t made his pro debut yet. But if you read the scouting report we posted as part of our Braves Top 10 list at baseballamerica.com, he did sound ridiculously talented. I haven’t read a scouting report like that on a Latin American teenager since . . . since whenever. Can’t wait to see him pitch next year.

Since then, Teheran debuted in the Appy league as a 17 year old.  His stats:

6.60 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 15 IP, 17 K, 4 BBs, 1.27 GO/AO

As you can see, he didn't exactly light the world on fire.  However, the strong strikeout (& K/BB) and groundball rates do make me optimistic about his future.  There is one concern however.  He was shutdown early due to tenderness in the shoulder.  I've read on a few sites that Braves officials have insiststed that it was nothing serious and that they were taking an extra cautious approach with their young arm.  I guess that's somewhat comforting, but we won't know for sure until next season.  At this point, it looks like he will be in Michael Inoa's shadow, but Teheran might have better stuff.

From CBS

Julio Teheran – Teheran, who has garnered a lot of attention during his short pro career, was limited to only 15 innings in 2008 due to shoulder tendinitis. It’s not that it was very serious, but with the kind of talent this 17-year old possesses, the Braves are taking no chances. Teheran’s value is all in his scouting report at this point. He’s got a very loose arm action that allows his fastball to reach the mid-90’s with ease, but what separates him from other teenage power pitchers is the rest of his arsenal. Along with the fastball, Teheran throws an advanced change in the low-80’s with quite a bit of sink, along with a hard curve in the high-70’s. His mechanics are still a bit inconsistent which causes some control issues but that’s not at all a big concern right now. If prospects were ranked purely on potential, Teheran would be among the elite prospects in the game, but he is still a long way off. If he can pitch an entire season, Teheran could very well jump up into the game’s elite pitching prospects.

What are your thoughts on Julio Teheran?  I trust your informed opinions.