Bowman on Atlanta Braves Rumors
Mark Bowman has a post up covering several topics:
- The Braves have NOT pursued Derek Lowe and have no intentions to do so
- They have remained steadfast that they do not want to resume trade talks with the Padres for Jake Peavy
- They seem to be pinning all their hopes for getting an ace on signing A.J. Burnett
- They have expressed a willingness to give Burnett a five-year contract
- The Braves have an immediate need for Burnett, but also realize that he will benefit them long-term
- The Braves have already expressed excitement over a 2010 rotation that could include Burnett, Tim Hudson, Javier Vazquez, Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson (yeah, I was going to bring this up at some point... I could get really excited about that rotation too)
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with or without Burnett
Even without Burnett I like the righties in our rotation in late 09 or 2010, with Hanson and Hudson. The outfield clean-up hitter void is our big challenge now. Milton Bradley is the best one out there, if he’s licked his behavioral issues.
Speaking of which, let’s not forget Tyler Flowers served a 50-game suspension in 2006 for performance enhancing drugs. That and his questionable fielding should make us feel better about the Vasquez deal.
by JimK on Dec 3, 2008 2:09 PM EST 0 recs
When is Hanson expected to join the rotation. Could he join out of Spring Training or is he someone who would get called up later in the year.
by jack dein on Dec 3, 2008 2:22 PM EST 0 recs
DOB at the AJC said he would probably get a shot this spring training, I don;t know how far that goes, but I typically trust DOB.
by someguy917 on
Dec 3, 2008 2:26 PM EST
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They’re fucking nuts for pursuing Burnett this hard. Like, you wonder how ignorant they have to be to ignore that he’s rarely healthy for a full-season and we’re going to be buying his age 32-36 seasons for big money. That’s just an absolutely terrible investment.
by 17843 on Dec 3, 2008 2:23 PM EST 0 recs
We don;t have any other options
This year, starting pitching is hard to find, Peavy’s asking price is 2 arms and a leg. Sabathia’s cost is worse. Lowe is older. Who else is left?
by someguy917 on
Dec 3, 2008 2:28 PM EST
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If we’re spending $75 million over five years for Burnett, we can spend $140 million over eight for Sabathia. Not only is Sabathia a superior pitcher, but he’s four years younger. Pitchers age poorly by definition. Why would you want to pay for Burnett’s age 32-36 seasons but not Sabathia’s age 28-35 seasons? The extra money per year is only ~$3 million plus three extra years where Sabathia will be younger than Burnett. The difference in value between Sabathia and Burnett is definitely bigger than ~$3 million the next five years and Sabathia is certainly a better bet than Burnett from age 33-35.
Ideally I would pay something like $125 million for five years for Sabathia, but I’d definitely rather have the deal he’ll get than the deal Burnett gets.
And if we can’t get Sabathia, there’s not really a pitcher I’d bet on on this market. Maybe Lowe because he’s been consistently durable through his mid-30s and he would be a decent bet to return value. I just dispute that we somehow need to pursue contending this year if the path to contention is going to tie us into terrible contracts down the road.
by 17843 on
Dec 3, 2008 2:39 PM EST
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Well...
I don’t really know exact figues on how the contracts will work out, but I don;t think Sabathia would even consider coming to Atlanta. He wants the West Coast.
by someguy917 on
Dec 3, 2008 2:50 PM EST
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FYI
Sabathia’s contract is for 6 years and 140 million not 8 years. So we would be adding 1 year and 65 million to get Sabathia rather than Burnett. Not worth it.
by palioc33 on
Dec 3, 2008 2:51 PM EST
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Nobody isn't a bad option, either
If the Braves snag Burnett, I’ll live. Worry about tomorrow when tomorrow comes, and enjoy what he brings in the first two years, if he stays injury free that long.
The underlying point of most tail-end contracts is to be making the most money while being the least effective due to age and decline. I’d love to see more front-loaded contracts, where for example, Sabathia makes a ton of money in his first few years, but as he ages and his skills diminish, he begins to make less. We the fans might see less early-contract-loafing, but still see the same hard effort on the tail end, if they’re vying for yet another contract.
But if the Braves can’t get Burnett, no tears here. Funnel that money elsewhere, like towards the draft, amateur free agents, or international scouting. No reason why the budget shouldn’t be spent, one way or the other.
No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.
by royhobbs on
Dec 3, 2008 2:42 PM EST
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this is the right idea. i’d prefer we stage a winning team for the next decade; ensuring that we’re in a position to invest big money in the draft would be an excellent place to begin.
by brndn on
Dec 3, 2008 4:39 PM EST
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of course, investing big money in a top of the line starter is also a nice place to begin.
by gondeee on
Dec 3, 2008 5:03 PM EST
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your
win now, future be damned, attitude is exactly what got the braves in this mess to begin with. Investing big money in a top of the line starter has led to as many failures as it has wins (see barry zito, carl pavano).
then look at what the As did. They had a couple of down seasons (sound familiar?), but used that to build to the future. Now that have a top 3 farm system and a strong chance to be a contender for the next 5 years. The braves could do that (imagine a rotation led by Hanson, Jair, and Neftali Feliz), but by trading away young guys and committing large sums of money to older pitchers they could effectively ruin those chances. Why not sign a big free agent in a couple of years when the prospects hit the big league squad? As opposed to signing a guy who will be in his mid 30s when that happens? Doesn’t make an ounce of sense.
by son.of.sourman on
Dec 3, 2008 5:15 PM EST
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We use the metric system here.
It makes perfect sense, the club needs to put butts in seats. Period. That is a baseball team’s number one goal. Signing a big name free agent or making a big trade does that. But signing a big name free agent doesn’t really hurt you in terms of prospects. No one says we have to keep Burnett his whole contract, but we need him now. If we don;t spend that money, its not going to make it back to the team ever. Liberty Media will just absorb it right back up and we will be just north of the Marlins.
by someguy917 on
Dec 3, 2008 5:22 PM EST
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Take a look at a graph of team revenue and wins. Team revenue increases very slowly until the mid 80s and then shoots up rapidly to the mid 90s before it returns to a slow increase. That’s because the quickest way to extra revenue is to make the playoffs. Playing for 85 wins may give the Braves a small chance at the playoffs, but it’s not going to result in substantially more revenue than 75 wins. However, building for 2010 and onward can lay the foundation for a string of 90+ win teams which will substantially increase revenue.
Burnett is a bad investment. He’s injury prone, he’s old, and he’s expensive. He’s a very good pitcher, but it’s not likely he’ll be worth the contract he’ll get. The idea that he’ll be some sort of massive attraction when we’re an 82 win true talent team is ridiculous. He’s not a name guy, he’s good, but not in a Peavy or Sabathia or Santana front page of ESPN type guy.
by 17843 on
Dec 3, 2008 5:58 PM EST
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So what do we do with the money?
Because that portion of our budget will evaporate if we don’t spend it. Don;t expect it to be around next season just sitting in an account making (almost no) interest.
by someguy917 on
Dec 3, 2008 6:02 PM EST
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Frank Wren said in the chat that there is no pressure to spend all of the money for the fear that the owners will take it away.
by beeniez on
Dec 3, 2008 6:39 PM EST
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Invest in draft picks, international players, sign guys like Brad Penny who we can turn into prospects at the trade deadline if they’re effective, or god forbid we do actually save it and spend it next year.
We could easily drop $15 million on the draft next year by targetting signability guys and giving out a big bonus early in the first. That’s $10 million more than this year. Add to that targetting a number of Latin or Asian guys for ~$1 million per and we can easily spend Burnett’s salary next year on something like ten extra high ceiling prospects. It’s also not as if there aren’t very good starters on the market next off-season – Lackey, Harden, Bedard – and in 2011 Beckett, Webb, Lee, Greinke.
by 17843 on
Dec 3, 2008 7:45 PM EST
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15 million is um, extraordinarily high.
Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.
by bigjoe on
Dec 3, 2008 7:47 PM EST
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The Red Sox and Royals both dropped north of $10 million. The Sox had a bunch of guys in the 10s and 20s that had early round potential, but were unpolished enough to let go. Draft like that and sign those guys and you can spend $15 million easy and have a stacked draft.
by 17843 on
Dec 4, 2008 3:29 AM EST
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the only problem with “over” spending in the draft is u set up an unattainable precedent. if we pay over slot in the draft we will make future draft picks expect more money. the red sox spend 10-15M a year in the draft because for them it is sustainable.
im not sure if i stated this clearly as usual but w/e
"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."
by Swo12bv on
Dec 4, 2008 2:55 PM EST
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It’s sustainable for every team to spend $10 million a year. No team ever does it consistently because of the heat they get from the commissioners office – 2008 was the first time any team had ever breached the $10 million mark.
I don’t agree with your opinion though. Buying guys away from school by giving them large bonuses doesn’t cause the total market to inflate; ie, paying a raw HS kid with a strong college committ $1 million to sign isn’t going to make, say, the #10 pick in the draft suddenly ask for a bigger bonus. No player taken in the first round is going to compare themselves to someone taken later and ask for a bigger bonus.
What’s spent on the draft is peanuts compared to the gains from it as long as you have a competent scouting department. An all-star level player will bring you tens of millions in extra revenue in the six years they’re controlled. Lesser players will bring you millions. When you’re talking about giving someone $750K to sign overslot that’s absolutely nothing.
by 17843 on
Dec 4, 2008 3:41 PM EST
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this is a separate argument but its arguable whether or not its profitable. you spend 10M a year and maybe once every 2 or 3 drafts do u get a player who will significantly affect your attendence. I have not stats to back this up, but i think even 2-3 years might be generous. There are very few players that fans will go to see just to see him, so if thats what ur saying i think ur a bit off base. especially, considering the amount of money you spend on playes who never make it to the majors. I dont remember what the stats are but i remember someone on this board sayign like 1 in every 10-15 picks in the first two rounds end up in an all star game. Thats just one all star game not numerous.
dont get me wrong im not saying we shouldnt spend money on the draft and international market. I think its a great idea. but one of the reasons we as fans think its a great idea is because it gives us something to talk about. Also, I dont know what we spent last year on the draft, but if its a small increase (like 1M) to get to 10M then that sounds like a plan. I just dont want to be throwing money into a system that doesnt guarantee success, or at least an extravagant amount of money (maybe we have varying degrees of what extravagant is in this case). an example of this would be giving over 4M to a 16 y old kid like Inoa… i understand he projects to be very good and he may be.. but he is at least 6 years from being major league ready, thats 6 years in which something could happen and 4M is down the drain… i think givin him $1M is a lot but i understand that, maybe even as high as 3M, if he is really good and u think he could pitch is 3-4 years, but still
although that last part brings up a comepltely different argument, isnt it crazy that we allow MLB clubs to empploy 16 y olds on their baseball team, essentially stunting any chance they have of earning a degree… if we cant do it in the US why can we do it elsewhere… are kids in other countries less special than kids in the US. and i guess seeing as this is quite long ill sotp here.
"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."
by Swo12bv on
Dec 4, 2008 5:27 PM EST
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Using the market based value of a win (roughly $5 million) a player who is a 3 win above replacement player (say a 3B who plays 150 games, hits something like 270/350/460, and plays average defense) who plays six seasons at that level will be worth $90 million. Subtract out his salaries – 400k, 500k, 600k, 3 M, 6 M, 9 M and a 1 M signing bonus – and he’s worth around $70 million. Even if you spent $15 million in signing bonuses and only hit on one such player every three years you’d earn $25 million in marginal revenue.
Revenue is not generated only by superstars either.
by 17843 on
Dec 4, 2008 7:49 PM EST
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also i would love to see where u got the numbers for how much each team spent, that seems interesting
"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."
by Swo12bv on
Dec 4, 2008 5:28 PM EST
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BA had an article. It might’ve been behind the subscriber wall.
by 17843 on
Dec 4, 2008 7:41 PM EST
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i could SWEAR i read that the red sox and royals only spent 6 million…but whatever
Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.
by bigjoe on
Dec 4, 2008 9:16 PM EST
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Kelly + Westmoreland + Hissey is $6 million alone. Melville + Hosmer + Montgomery is too.
by 17843 on
Dec 4, 2008 9:58 PM EST
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agreed
and honestly, i don’t think vasquez + burnett even gets this team to the playoffs. especially in a division where playing the mets and phils a million times is a reality. and honestly, i hated the vasquez deal a lot more when I thought morton was in it.
i still don’t get the idea of spending money just to spend it. the braves were middle of the pack in draft spending last year, and i’d hope they would be near the top next year. so please earmark some money for that. i’d also like to see them spend more on international talent.
by son.of.sourman on
Dec 3, 2008 7:08 PM EST
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Hear that gondeee?
All. Your. Fault.
It all makes sense now. The decline of the Braves coincided with when gondeee took over the reigns to TC.
No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.
by royhobbs on
Dec 3, 2008 5:23 PM EST
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wait… i think i started hanging out here around 2006/2007? and we haven’t one since… you bastard. cancel the site.
by brndn on
Dec 3, 2008 5:58 PM EST
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Haha…
I guess I should be one to talk.
There's nights that I can't even walk.
There's days I couldn't give a fuck.
And in between is where I'm stuck.
by Smoltz's Beard on
Dec 3, 2008 5:53 PM EST
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I generally agree that you don't mortgage the future
But if the only thing FW does is sign Burnett to a 5 year deal and trade Flowers and some fringe-y prospects for Vasquez, I don’t think that would mortgage the future. Vasquez’ contract goes away after 2010, and then the only large salary committments are McCann and Burnett.
by buzzdeadwax on
Dec 3, 2008 5:38 PM EST
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sure. but we should be willing to walk away if the deal requires 5 years. but no one’s convincing anyone of anything new here. we all knows the risks; maybe it’ll work out.
by brndn on
Dec 3, 2008 5:50 PM EST
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Could someone explain how Peavy costs “two arms and a leg”? His contract is downright affordable; even with the option picked up, it’s equal to what Burnett will get (5/81). And the cost in trade is likewise pretty low; Escobar is replaceable, Hernandez remains just the second-best CF prospect in the organization, Morton and Reyes have upside but aren’t likely to be missed, and the last players are expendable (Jeff Locke?, Blaine Boyer?).
One of the insiders I trust most, Peter Gammons, reported that negotiations died over Single-A pitching, and I can’t believe that is such an irreconcilable difference. I’m fine with Frank Wren being willing to draw a line in the sand three weeks ago, but at this point it makes a lot more sense to go back to the table with the Padres (at least to see where they stand) than up and offer five years for Burnett.
It’s not that I don’t like Burnett, I just like Peavy better, and moving Yunel Escobar and spending the spare change on Rafael Furcal makes too much sense to me. I know Braves fans have cried out over the expense of the reported Peavy package, but I just fail to see what we lose that’s all that valuable.
by tgthree on
Dec 3, 2008 4:59 PM EST
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Peavy + Furcal = ~$28 million per season
That’s $5 million or so more per season than CC. When you also include Morton, Gorkys, Boyer, and Locke, it becomes a ridiculous price to pay. Why would you spend more money per season than on CC, but get equal (or possibly worse) performance?
by buzzdeadwax on
Dec 3, 2008 5:08 PM EST
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No problem
I’d be totally fine with trading Escobar if there was a guy in the minors who needed his shot – ie if Heyward played SS. But that’s obviously not the case.
by buzzdeadwax on
Dec 3, 2008 5:14 PM EST
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I have to say I am dead wrong here. I will start by saying one thing:
Having Furcal and Peavy spreads your risk. Tying up $25 million a year in CC Sabathia is extraordinarily risky, because if he goes down, there went a quarter of your payroll. That is the one and only reason I would avoid CC; it makes no sense to tie up 25% of our payroll for the better part of the next decade in ONE PLAYER. Waaay too risky.
But you’re right. Effectively the debate here is Peavy and Furcal vs. Burnett, Escobar, Hernandez, Morton, Locke/Boyer and $8 million. I never quite laid it out like that before to see that Burnett may make more sense. Peavy is an injury risk in his own right, and Burnett has actually averaged 183 IP over the last four seasons. Even so, Peavy is still more valuable but not enough to make up for all the other pieces that would have to be sent to San Diego. I’m not a big Escobar fan, but again, whatever extra value Furcal brings to that leadoff spot is pretty handily annulled by the cost savings and the players kept.
In a way, I was biased because the Peavy deal offered security that Yunel Escobar would be traded (and not Kelly Johnson), and that Hernandez would be used as trade bait (I view him as the most expendable of our top tier of prospects). But, yeah, now that you mention it, it does look as though Wren is moving down the better road in pursuing Burnett.
by tgthree on
Dec 3, 2008 5:46 PM EST
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Instead of averaging his innings, let’s look season by season. 209, 135, 165, 221. He was a stud in two years, missed seven starts one year, and missed eleven the next year. In two of the years he shot he team’s playoff chances in the foot by giving starts away to far inferior pitchers. Let’s not mince words here, he’s pitched a full-season three times in nine seasons. Betting on that is an unnecessary risk.
by 17843 on
Dec 3, 2008 7:55 PM EST
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Maybe we should wait to see how the contract is structured before we break down how horrible the offer is for the Braves. If it’s for, say, three years with two option years that vest with performance then I think that would be ok. I’m sure the health concerns are being taken into account.
by beeswax on
Dec 3, 2008 2:47 PM EST
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Maybe. But other teams can offer more per year than the Braves can, and other teams are apparently willing to go four guaranteed years. I think the Braves have to offer five years guaranteed to really have a leg up on the competition.
by tgthree on
Dec 3, 2008 5:00 PM EST
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So let's say
Burnett
Vazquez
Jair
Campillo
Morton/Hanson
Meh, would look a lot better with the Big Unit in there.
11mil + 16mil leaves us a lot of money to address offense if we’re really in the 40-50mil range. Still want Maggs.
by TradeAndruw on Dec 3, 2008 3:38 PM EST 0 recs
we have no interest whatsoever in johnson, so you can STFU about that now.
Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.
by bigjoe on
Dec 3, 2008 3:40 PM EST
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The ladies love Randy Johnson, he’d be the new Javy Lopez for them to swoon over.
by TradeAndruw on
Dec 3, 2008 4:57 PM EST
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We will pick back up Smoltz, probably Glavine, and hopefully Norton too.
by someguy917 on
Dec 3, 2008 3:40 PM EST
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I don't disagree
I just don’t think anyone should be counting on him in the rotation.
by Hizilla on
Dec 3, 2008 6:09 PM EST
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Don't believe everything you read
I firmly believe if he is capable he will be in the rotation when he returns (notice I said when, now watch it come back and bite me).
by scstrato on
Dec 3, 2008 6:05 PM EST
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Actually
Not sure if the money is there or not but I would rather us sign Johnson than Glavine. I would love to see Johnson bumping Campillo to the #5 hole and us using Morton/Reyes/Hanson for depth.
by scstrato on
Dec 3, 2008 6:04 PM EST
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yes, but in 2010
Burnett
Hudson
Vazquez
Jurrjens
Hanson
w00t
by beeswax on
Dec 3, 2008 3:51 PM EST
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We finally rid ourselves of Mike Hampton, and now Frank is pursuing another injury prone pitcher?? He has only thrown 200 innings 3 times in his 10 years in the majors. The most innings Hampton ever threw was 190, and that was his first year. We aren’t gonna contend next year, we just need to rebuild and wait for our young studs like Hanson and Locke and them to dominate!
by jjcollins on Dec 3, 2008 4:02 PM EST 0 recs
200 innings isnt somehting every pitcher does all the time 33 pitchers had 200 + innings last year thats about one starter per team… it would be great if 3 of our 5 starters hit 200 innigns but its not that realistic
"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."
by Swo12bv on
Dec 3, 2008 6:23 PM EST
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He’s thrown 180 innings also only three times. 69 major league starters did that last year (2-3 per team). It’s pretty necessary to consistently throw 180 innings to be considered and be paid like a top tier starter. Burnett’s last five seasons have been 120, 209, 136, 166, 221.
by 17843 on
Dec 3, 2008 7:59 PM EST
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ur right, my comment was more a general statement on expectations of 200 innigns… however i do think Burnett would be a good acquisition that in independent of this comment…
i just looked up Burnett’s injury history, i was unlcear as to why he had missed time after TJ surgery in 03… he missed tim do to a tear in his scar tissue in his elbow in 06, which i view as just ebing cautious and smart, it doesnt seem to be a worry we should have. In 07, he missed a couple of starts because he had shoulder issues. Of all the things in his past the only thing that even slightly worries me is the shoulder issues, however after throwing 220 innigns in 08 i dont consider that a problem. On the other hand, Sheets has had hamstring, groin, elbow, shoulder, and God knows what else go wrong with him.
"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."
by Swo12bv on
Dec 4, 2008 3:09 PM EST
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As Bowman says in his article, signing Burnett is not just a win-now move. By signing Burnett we are not preventing our younger players from progressing up the minor leagues. If we sign Burnett after landing Vazquez, I applaud Wren for making our rotation respectable without giving up any of our elite prospects. To respond to JJcollins, we are still waiting for young studs to come up and dominate because we didn’t lose any sans Flowers. We have money to spend and we might as well take a chance that Burnett can live up to his hype and stay on the field.
http://www.whensidslid.com
by garriscp on Dec 3, 2008 4:28 PM EST 0 recs
It most certainly is a win now move. Burnett is 32. He’s only going to get older and decline. There are similar or better pitchers on the market the next two years that will be signable at his price. There’s no reason to take a chance with $15 million+ over the next 4-5 years. That money can be distributed among 10s of different risks by spending on the draft or can be invested into a more reliable asset on the free agent market next winter.
by 17843 on
Dec 3, 2008 8:01 PM EST
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Bullpen
The pitchers in the pen could also use some help this year. Having a healthy Gonzo is huge, along with Moylan back. Wouldn’t a one-year deal to Hoffman around 5-6 mill be worth it as well? Unless the bump in salary to Soriano (2.3-7mil this year) hurts our chances to get someone else. You just cant’ have enough arms and having another guy closer wouldn’t be a bad idea…considering we blew through 3 of them last year!
by jwrocks on Dec 3, 2008 4:30 PM EST 0 recs
hoffman still wants to close. which is why he left SD
Following the Braves...one long hard drink at a time.
by bigjoe on
Dec 3, 2008 4:42 PM EST
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I read somewhere that the Braves are confident he’ll remain at least semi-healthy. His past few DL stints have been more precautionary because of TJ he had a few years ago. One of the lengthy DL stints was because his scar tissue broke years after he had TJ and they weren’t sure what the problem was – but everything was normal, just odd that it finally broke years later. While I don’t expect him not to land on the DL during that that 5 year period, I don’t think he’s going to miss a full year either.
by beeniez on Dec 3, 2008 4:32 PM EST 0 recs
Adam Dunn
This is off-topic, but Ken Rosenthal says the Braves are among the teams who have expressed interest in Dunn. If we can get Vazquez, Burnett, and Dunn while still keeping our best prospects, I’d call this a fantastic offseason.
by coldriver10 on Dec 3, 2008 4:38 PM EST 0 recs
+1
I would say the same thing also between the 3 it will cost 4 spare prospects, and 11.5 for Vasquez, 13 million for Dunn, and 14-15 for Burnett. we spent 38-39 million and got our 2 starters, and a power bat in the OF. We also kept Yunel, Kelly, Hansen, Heyward, Freeman, Gorkys, and Schaefer. That is the dream scenario for the Braves you have a lineup that gets better without subtracting pieces and a rotation the is vastly improved without trading any of our core players.
Lineup
1. Schafer/Blanco
2. Escobar
3. Chipper
4. McCann
5. Dunn-who could play 1B against a tough LHP and have a RH 4th OF, play LF and sit Kotchman
6. Francoeur
7. Johnson
8. Kotchman
9. Pitcher spot
Rotation 09
1. Burnett
2. Jurjjens
3. Vasquez
4. Glavine/Reyes
5. Morton/Campillo
Rotation 10-looks like a potential dominate staff.
1. Burnett
2. Hudson
3. Jurjjens
4. Vasquez
5. Hansen
by mauck98 on
Dec 3, 2008 5:45 PM EST
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its mostly sematics, but Dunn would bat 4 and McCann 5th..IMHO
"We win today, that's two in a row... if we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before..."
by Swo12bv on
Dec 3, 2008 6:25 PM EST
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Dunn doesn't address our need
Not taking anything away from him, would love to see him in a Braves uni, but we NEED a right handed masher. Yes, Dunn hits lefty pitchers very well but the way I see it, and this is just my personal belief – not necessarily logical, even a good lefty hitter has less chance to hit lefty pitching. Let me give an example, let’s for arguments sake compare Dunn with Burrell both facing Ollie Perez. Using the last three years splits as a comparison (avg/obp/slg/ops):
.237/.366/.455/.821 (Dunn) vs. .195/.283/.319/.602 (Perez vs LHB)
.275/.421/.550/.971 (Burrell) vs. .261/.353/.431/.785 (Perez vs RHB)
This isn’t really a “fair” comparison for various reasons, mainly because I’m using a specific pitcher instead of generalized league stats, but I used this example to show my theory on why Dunn won’t help us as much as a right handed batter who mashes lefties. Obviously Dunn is the better offensive threat of the two, but I would much rather have Burrell to combat the overwhelming number of impact lefty starters in our league.
That’s my two cents, would love to get some feedback from the SABR’s in the community on where I’m off.
by scstrato on
Dec 3, 2008 6:30 PM EST
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One Problem
You are signing a just because he can hit LHP. What Burrell can’t do is hit RHP very well and isn’t very productive and really hasn’t been in his career. He has a .245 career average against RHP. Who would you rather have a guy who hits .245 against pitchers who he will face 4/5 days and be less productive 4/5 days or a guy who will hit .240 1/5 days and .250 4/5 days and still be productive against either LHP or RHP. Burrell just isn’t productive against RHP which is what you face 4/5 days in most cases. Most teams have 1 LHP and very few have 2. The Mets had 2 and the Phillies had 2 other than that name me a team that had 2 LH starters.
by mauck98 on
Dec 3, 2008 11:28 PM EST
up
0 recs
Fair assessment
Didn’t mean to imply that Burrell was my target, I was simply using him as an example. Regardless – yes, I would prefer someone like that because our weakness is against left handed pitching. As a team we hit .264/335/.381/.715 against lefties vs. .273/.350/.421/.771. That may not seem like much but it’s generalized across the entire


